Canadian Nationals Predictions

[geoskate]

Some numbers - you can make of them what you will.

Top 12 junior men scores so far this season:
1. Andrei Rogozine 188.60 at JGP Japan - skating senior.
2. Liam Firus 173.71 at Challenge - skating senior.
3. Samuel Morais Best 170.39 at Challenge - skating senior.
4. Nam Nguyen Best 159.11 at BC Sectionals
3rd at Challenge in juniors, score 143.14.
5. Shaquille Davis best 159.03 at Octoberfest
5th at Challenge in juniors with a disastrous long program, score 138.32.
6. Raphael Yacobi-Harris best 149.71 at sectionals- skating senior.
7. Charles Dion Best 149.64 at sectionals - skated senior, did not qualify for nationals
8. Samuel Angers Best 147.52 at Challenge
1st at challenge in juniors (147.52)
9. Garrett Gosselin Best 144.01 at Challenge
2nd at Challenge in juniors (144.01)
10. Jack Kermezian Best 140.61 at sectionals
8th at Challenge in juniors (score 127.93)
11. Peter O'Brien Best 139.69 at Challenge
4th at Challenge in juniors (139.69)
12. Michael Marinaro Best 131.69
6th at Challenge in juniors (131.69)

So four of the top 12 juniors will be skating senior and one did not qualify in senior. About my only comment on the remaining seven in the top 12 is that they are quite inconsistent. I thought Nam Nguyen and Shaquille Davis would be fighting it out for top two, with the remaining skaters going for the bronze. Nam and Shaquille proved at Challenge that they are completely capable of giving away those spots to other people who want them.

[geoskate]

For ladies I listed top 16 scores so far this year for junior-eligible skaters:

1. Vanessa Grenier Best 135.84 at Challenge - skating senior.
2. Alexandra Najarro Best 135.15 at Challenge - skating senior.
3. Kate Charbonneau Best 133.56 at Skate Detroit - skating senior.
4. Daniela-Bella Favot Best 130.84 at Middle Atlantic Championships, skated senior but did not qualify for Canadians.
5. Julianna Sagaria Best 123.53 at Challenge
1st at Challenge in junior (123.53)
6. Kaetlyn Osmond Best 122.35 at sectionals
5th at challenge in juniors (109.75)
7. Rika Inoda Best 120.67 at BC Summer Skate, skated senior at Challenge but did not qualify for Canadians.
8. Roxanne Rheault Best 120.59 at Challenge
2nd at Challenge in juniors (120.59)
9. Rylie McCulloch-Casarsa Best 120.42 at Challenge - skating senior.
10. Cassandra McDonnell Best 116.05 at Challenge
3rd at Challenge in juniors (116.05)
11. Morgan Jmaiff Best 115.26 at Challenge
4th at Challenge in juniors (115.26)
12. Jane Gray Best 114.93 at Glencoe Club competion; did not qualify for Canadians.
13. Kitty Qian Best 113.16 at BC Coast Regional Championships.
9th at Challenge in junior (104.44)
14. Jacqueline Leniuk Best 111.13 at Challenge - skating senior
15. Rachel Greben Best 109.88 at Octoberfest
10th at Challenge in junior (104.35)
16. Kelsey Wiebe Best 109.80 at Autumn Leaves
8th at Challenge in juniors (104.69)

So seven of the top 16 were skating senior, of whom 5 qualified. Of the remaining nine skaters in the top 16, seven qualified for Canadians in junior. Rounding out the top ten at Challenge were Alexandra Gagnon (6th, 108.77) and Natasha Purich (7th, 107.99).

[geoskate]

For pairs I'll list top 10 scores so far this season:

1. Brittany Jones/Kurtis Gaskell Best 133.24 at Thornhill - skating senior.
2. Taylor Steele/Rob Schultz Best 133.08 at JPG final
Did not skate at Challenge (bye)
3. Natasha Purich/Raymond Schultz Best 131.77 at JGP Czech Republic
Did not skate at Challenge (bye due to JGP Final)
4 . Margaret Purdy/Michael Marinaro Best 128.95 at Challenge - skating senior
5. Kristen Tikel/Ian Beharry Best 125.07 at Challenge
1st at Challenge in junior (125.07)
6. Tara Hancherow/Sebastien Wolfe Best 117.85 at sectionals
3rd at Challenge in junior (115.65)
7. Aveline Pearson/Alexander Sheldrick Best 113.83 at Challenge
4th at Challenge in juniors (113.83)
8. Catherine Balde/Maxime Deschamps Best 110.45 at Challenge
5th at Challenge in juniors (110.45)
9. Alexandra Young/Matthew Young Best 106.84 at Challenge
6th at Challenge in juniors (106.84)
10. Gabriella DeBono/Christopher Sisca Best 105.77 at Challenge
7th at Challenge in junior (105.77)

I'm not sure about the status of the 2nd place finishers at Challenge (Katie Bobak/Matthew Penasse, score 122.88 at Challenge). I thought they were ineligible for junior this year since they didn't get any JGP assignments, but they are competing in junior at Canadians and should be a factor there. Are the requirements for junior skaters different for Canadians than they are for the JGP circuit?

[geoskate]

Finally, top 12 junior dance scores so far this year:

1. Nicole Orford/Thomas Williams Best 120.59 at Challenge
1st at Challenge (120.59)
2. Laurence Fournier-Beaudry/Yoan Breton Best 119.94 at Challenge
2nd at Challenge (119.94)
3. Andreanne Poulin/Marc-Andre Servant Best 118.00 at JGP Dresden
3rd at Challenge (115.87)
4. Kelly Oliveira/Jordan Hockley Best 117.28 at Octoberfest
5th at Challenge (102.32)
5. Victoria Hasegawa/Connor Hasegawa Best 112.79 at Challenge
4th at Challenge (112.79)
6. Elisabeth Paradis/Francois-Xavier Ouellette Best 107.43 at sectionals
6th at Challenge (102.27)
7. Abby Carswell/Andrew Doleman Best 107.25 at JGP Rumania
15th at Challenge (88.21)
8. Edrea Khong/Edbert Khong Best 106.73 at Thornhill
Not competing at Canadians.
9. Marieve Cyr/Benjamin Brisebois Best 103.46 at sectionals
20th at Challenge, did not qualify for Canadians.
10. Jazz Smyl Joly/Ryan Behnia Best 101.16 at sectionals
16th at Challenge, did not qualify for Canadians.
11. Carolyn MacCuish/Tyler Morris Best 99.67 at Challenge
7th at Challenge (99.67)
12. Sara Aghai/Qwynn Dalmer Best 99.66 at sectionals
9th at Challenge (94.52)

So that may give you some idea who may be competing for the podium positions in juniors. I'll let other people make more specific comments.

[nadster]

I'm not sure about the status of the 2nd place finishers at Challenge (Katie Bobak/Matthew Penasse, score 122.88 at Challenge). I thought they were ineligible for junior this year since they didn't get any JGP assignments, but they are competing in junior at Canadians and should be a factor there. Are the requirements for junior skaters different for Canadians than they are for the JGP circuit?

I know that SC allows juniors to do side by side triples in the short program ( ISU does not allow this in international junior competition). Also, unlike the other junior disciplines, SC does not put age limits on competitors in domestic junior pairs competitions.

[nadster]

Thanks geoskate for putting up the the junior numbers. Now my comments about looking at JW and further into next season

Men

Going to Junior Worlds. Rogozine and Firus no contest. I expect Rogozine to medal and ensure Canada gets 14 slots for next year's JGP. It would be nice if Firus could get in the top 10 to ensure 3 JW spots the following year but the 14 slots IMO are more important.

Next year JGP. Firus, Morais and Davis all age out. Rogozine has 2 years left but I expect him to be on the senior GP ( the bronze medal at the JGPF guarantees him senior GP spots for next year if he is willing to take them.) Which means 100% new skaters on the circuit. Hopefully SC will use all spots ( unlike the dance spots which were wasted this year).

Ladies

Hardest to predict which 2 ladies will be sent. They are all so inconsistent. Almost no chance for 14 slots here ( too many strong countries ) . Sagaria has the most consistent loop ( jump out of steps ) but she is less consistent with the easier triples. Hopefully Charbonneau regains last year's form. Will wait until nationals before I say more here but I think that any of the top 10 on geoskate's list that made it to Canadians ( eliminating Inoda and Favot for example) will get a chance. I also take into account that the senior scores are inflated for those skaters that don't have a triple loop.

Next year: Grenier ages out. Charbonneau and Najarro will be in their last year. Won't say too much more right now.

Pairs

Our 3 pairs who made the JGPF this year are fighting for 2 spots. Basically it will be 2 of those 3 at JW. We should qualify 3 pairs for next year and keep maximum 12 JGP slots.

Next year. Our 3 JGPF bound pairs all age out next year. I think the 2 who make it to JW will have excellent chances of getting senior GP slots. The non-JGPF bound pairs that got JGP assignments this year will return.

Dance

JW: Whoever finishes in the top 2 in junior dance. Will probably be fought among the top 3 at the challenge.

JW results: Most likely a Russian sweep of the medals here. The question here is if we can somehow sneak into the top 3 countries. I say we have a chance. Orford/Williams have a higher total aggregate score ( scores of 2 JGP's added together ) than the top French team that was the first alternate for the JGPF. The key will be beating the Ukranian team that went to the JGPF. Tough but IMO, doable. Orford/Williams' score at the challenge was better that the Ukranians at the JGPF. However I will take into account that all the teams at the JGPF scored well below their PB's this year ( perhaps a tougher caller).

Next year: Carsewell/Doleman age out. All other teams can return.

[NorthernDancers]

Interesting, nadster. I think it will be a good battle for the top 2 spots to go to JW in dance. I personally don't know if the rest of the world will be as enamoured with Orford/Williams as the judges in Canada. Ice dance is about more than just speed and power. Both Quebec teams have much stronger "dancing" skills, artistry, finesse, etc. Poulin/Servant have the highest scores internationally, I believe. Beaudry/Breton have also been consistently good in Canada over the season. The whole Junior dance scene is interesting. I don't think Challenge is a predictor of Nationals, just because the judging seemed odd at Challenge. That being said, I think politcs and international records considered, the likely participants in JW will be Poulin/Servant and Orford/Williams, with Beaudry/Breton, Hasegawas, and Oliveira/Hockley in the wings if one of the top 2 mess up. Last year, Paul/Islam were clearly the run-away favourites. I don't think there is a team like them this year.

Here is what I saw at Challenge for the rest of the teams that qualify for Nationals:
- Paradis/Ouellette: strong, but I'm not remembering much a week later, which maybe isn't a good thing.
- MacCuish/Morris: I think they will get lost in the mix. They did not do well internationally, had some injuries this season, and just don't look "together". Because of all of this, I think they will not be favourites, and could even drop in the standings.
- Soucisse/Smyth: REALLY liked this team's FD. This is a new team, but they look very strong. Really great to watch. They had some big errors, but could factor in the top 5 somewhere.
- Aghai/Dalmer: interesting concept in the FD, and both have improved a lot and are packaged well (they look quite striking as a team), but, as with other BC teams, they need a whole lot more finesse and artistry to go with their speed
- Clarkes: for the life of me cannot understand how they finished this high at Challenge. They may have earned their levels, but it was slow, uninspired, horrid posture, and just not good, both SD and FD.
- Cholette/Proulx-Senecal: kind of like the Clarkes. Maybe earned levels, but very slow, uninspired, and not very good. Surprising they finished this high
- Lioudvinevitch/Mulder: probably had the nicest, most elegant SD, but for some reason didn't get the levels on the Waltz (the curse of skating 1st in the event?); combined with some real errors in their FD left them lower in the standings; have to think they'll move up at Nationals, and maybe quite a bit if they are clean
- Van As/Shindle: another new team from BC; not the speed of the other BC teams, nor the packaging; some solid skating, but just ho hum
- Marrow/Stoll: also really nice looking team that just didn't get levels in SD or FD; strong, young team with lots of potential, I think, but perhaps will get lost in the mix this year
- Carswell/Doleman: this was perhaps the most shocking result; they just didn't get their levels in the SD and FD; there were definitely some errors, but otherwise, certainly they seemed a ton better than perhaps the Clarkes or Cholette/Proulx-Senecal; in really thinking what might be up here, I think perhaps she has just grown too tall for him, which is sorta sad, when you think they were 3rd in Canada last year. Maybe after missing the final at JW last year, and not the greatest results internationally this year, maybe the judges are just not considering them in the mix, and maybe the new height dynamic is throwing off some of their technique. But I wouldn't count them out to move up substantially.

[nadster]

Interesting, nadster. I think it will be a good battle for the top 2 spots to go to JW in dance. I personally don't know if the rest of the world will be as enamoured with Orford/Williams as the judges in Canada. Ice dance is about more than just speed and power. Both Quebec teams have much stronger "dancing" skills, artistry, finesse, etc. Poulin/Servant have the highest scores internationally, I believe. Beaudry/Breton have also been consistently good in Canada over the season. The whole Junior dance scene is interesting. I don't think Challenge is a predictor of Nationals, just because the judging seemed odd at Challenge. That being said, I think politcs and international records considered, the likely participants in JW will be Poulin/Servant and Orford/Williams, with Beaudry/Breton, Hasegawas, and Oliveira/Hockley in the wings if one of the top 2 mess up. Last year, Paul/Islam were clearly the run-away favourites. I don't think there is a team like them this year.

It is true that Poulin/Servant did only get one assignment , did well there and were clearly victims of Skate Canada leaving dance spots blank. 4 of the 14 spots were unfilled. That means if Poulin/Servant go to JW , they will get a bad skate order ( ISU rankings do determine short dance order ). I also think they could sneak by the Ukranians. Like I said the key thing for development is getting the 14 JGP slots.

[geoskate]

I personally don't know if the rest of the world will be as enamoured with Orford/Williams as the judges in Canada.

I think you've got it backwards. It's the non-Canadian judges who have been giving them better marks. Witness their scoring progression in the free dance: Two Canadian competitions (Minto 59.15, BC Summer Skate 53.29), one American competition where they had much better marks and won the free skate (Lake Placid, 67.68), then their two JGP competitions (JGP Sheffield 69.15 and a bronze medal, then JGP Czech Republic 70.13). It's after that that their domestic scores went up at Challenge (69.84). I think it's more a question of the Canadian judges becoming 'enamoured' with them after the international judges gave them the go-ahead to do so.

Orford/Williams are, after all, the only Canadian junior team to win a medal on the JGP circuit this year, which does mean something.

(It's possible that Poulin/Servant could also have done so had they been given the opportunity at a second competition).

[geoskate]

Senior pairs predictions:
1. Duhamel/Radford
2. Moore-Towers/Moscovitch
3. Lawrence/Swiegers
4. Brodeur/Mattatall
5. Jones/Gaskell or Purdy/Marinaro

Senior dance predictions:
1. Crone/Poirier
2. Weaver/Poje
3. Paul/Islam
4. Ralph/Hill
5. Arnold/Trojek

Senior men predictions:
1. Patrick Chan
2. Kevin Reynolds
3. Jeremy Ten
4. Shawn Sawyer
5. Andrei Rogozine

Senior women predictions:
1. Cynthia Phaneuf
2. Amelie Lacoste
3. Myriane Samson
4. Vanessa Grenier
5. Adriana Desanctis

I'm not even going to attempt junior predictions, because the skaters are so inconsistent.

[sk8rdad]

Can I take this OT for a moment to ask what Balde's injury was ? I know he had a disaster at Challenge, but boy, I'd love to see him bounce back after his year off..even if that mostly comes next year. He's got that inner spark that commands your attention.

It was a knee injury.

[gottadance]

I see that most of the posters here dont seem to think much of JT's chances for a podium finish at Canadians. I am wondering what I am missing here as I find his skating to be really beautiful with super lines , musicality and excellent choreography . I heard he was coming off an injury at the GP and he was unfortunate to have back to back events. So, my questions are
1. Overall do the experts think this skater has potential or not

2. does anybody know if his injury is recoverd ?

One other question - does anybody know if Cody Hay found a new partner?

Thanks for any insight !

[blue_idealist]

I see that most of the posters here dont seem to think much of JT's chances for a podium finish at Canadians. I am wondering what I am missing here as I find his skating to be really beautiful with super lines , musicality and excellent choreography . I heard he was coming off an injury at the GP and he was unfortunate to have back to back events. So, my questions are
1. Overall do the experts think this skater has potential or not

2. does anybody know if his injury is recoverd ?

One other question - does anybody know if Cody Hay found a new partner?

Thanks for any insight !

I don't know if Cody found a new partner but I'm curious about that too. The reason I think Ten might not get on the podium is because of the way he skated on the GP. His jumps weren't very consistent, and he didn't get high placements. He is a lovely skater though, and anything could happen, he may skate better at nats than internationally.

[SkateFiguring]

I like Jeremy and feel bad for him though he keeps such good spirits about everything without complaints. He was injured last year and missed the Olympics in his home town. He also missed almost half a year of training, yet was sent to the first two GP events, back to back in Japan and then Canada in two consecutive weeks across the Globe. He got sick after NHK, had to take two final exams, and then competed in SC. I'm really upset with Skate Canada for scheduling him like this.

He goes to school, works and trains under Mcleod in BC. Unfortunately, like most of her students, 3A is a big problem. He needs another coach for that jump but that doesn't seem to be facilitated.

This kid has the best twitters where his good nature shows.

Oh, I just remember that one of his recent tweets mentioned his brother's brilliant suggestion of jumping off his non-injured foot for the 2 jumps he has problems with due to the injury. Hmmmm....... interesting.

[feraina]

Senior pairs predictions:
1. Duhamel/Radford
2. Moore-Towers/Moscovitch

I agree that Duhamel/Radford are a threat for the podium and maybe even for gold. They looked so much better at Challenge than SC: more fluid, more synchronized, more at ease. The sbs spins are really good, the 3 twist looks effortless (are these the first 3tw from Meagan?), and I think this is the softest/most polished I've ever seen Meagan skate. I love the energy/power in their program, too, and they obviously have a good connection. They are definitely on an upward trajectory. If Meagan can get her triples under control, I think they will provide credible challenge to M-T/M. I really hope they make Worlds team!