Correct me if I am wrong, but she keeps smiling through all the mistakes.
(Replying to posts 297. 299 and 300). What I was startled about was the base values for the two jump layouts. We can see where the skaters gained or lost points on GOEs, etc., but I was mainly curious about the CoP scale of values. (By the way, again just talking base value, Kostner's one mistake on the triple Loop lost her more points (5.06) in base value than Csiney's two -- the < on the flip and the missed 3T sequence together (4.40))
The way the programs were planned, Alissa's base value was (I think ) 39.58 and Kostner's 37.31. Despite all the backloading, Kostner's second-half bonuses amounted to only one point over Czisny's (2.42 versus 1.48, again talking about error-free executions of both programs.)
So it really comes down to, you can score a lot of points without doing the hardest jumps.
As to the two actual performances, I think both skaters did what they could. Carolina could not do the harder toe jumps because of injury. Alissa's flip is always iffy and she is lucky to land her last 3T at all, much less tack on the required 2T. Alissa does not really have the luxury of putting a lot of hard jumps at the end, lest her program fall apart completely.
So I thought they both put out programs that minimized their weaknesses, and gave themselves the best possible chance to win.
Carolina singling a triple was a serious point loser. A single is worth practically nothing. Alissa's UR cost 30% of the triple's base value and the repeated jump cost 20% of a triple. Discounted triples are still worth a lot more than any single.
For similar reasons, Patrick Chan was able to get significant points on fallen quads while popped jumps cost skaters who stay on their feet a lot more.
It's all relative. If you do lesser jumps really really well (+GOEs) while another skater does the harder jumps really badly (-GOEs), you still have a chance, depending on PCS.So it really comes down to, you can score a lot of points without doing the hardest jumps.
It sounds easy theoratically to backload the jumps but it's very hard to do them well. You need stamina and also mental strength to overcome whatever may have happened earlier in the program. There are reasons bonuses are awarded for late jumps. Get them if you can.
Mathman, I think Czisny's error free base value would have been 0ver 51.54. This is with still the Zayak mistake (20% off the 2nd 3T) because I don't know what she had actually planned in place of the 3T. Carolina's might have been 52.42 except I don't think she would be allowed 2 3Lo+2T combos so I have no idea what she would have replaced one of the 3Lo+2T with.
Last edited by SkateFiguring; 12-18-2010 at 09:31 PM.
Well, SHOULD a singled (or doubled) jump be penalized more heavily than a fall??
Last edited by SkateFiguring; 12-18-2010 at 10:00 PM.
In my calculation of base values, I mean just for the seven jumping passes.
I think Alissa's last jumping pass is supposed to be 3T+2T. If I am not mistaken she tried a 3T-3T there in pre-season competitions last year (unsuccessfully). In any case, i don't think her team deliberately choreographeed a Zayak violation -- they could have put in a double Axel there instead if she didn't intend a combo.
And whoever asked about the 3Lo+2T, yes Carolina can do 2 of those, it isn't negated by anything.