Questions as we head into the various nationals.

ImaginaryPogue · Dec 16, 2010

1. The Russian Pairs scene - who gets the second/third spot?
I think it's fair to say that the two time world medalists get their spot at Worlds/Euros for sure. But who's second/third?

2. The third man
Canada: Is it Sawyer? Ten? Rogozine?
USA: Is it Rippon/Mroz/Abbott/Armin/Dornbush/someone else?
Belgium: Okay, second man, but check out this young whippersnapper. Who woulda thunk that Belgium would have good use for that second spot?

3. The Japanese ladies.... What happens now?
Murakami's a lock for the world team. Does it actually seem plausible that Asada and Ando, the two extant world champions, are not gonna be on the team? It's times like this that the "three spot maximum" seems too restrictive. Maybe Canada can give up one of its spots.

More questions later, just wanted to lob these out there.

silverlake22 · Dec 16, 2010

Japanese ladies is definitely gonna be interesting. I don't really see Miki being left off the team with the GP season she's had (I know she was only 5th at the final, but she did win the FS there by over 5 points so that's gotta be worth something). If Mao brings it at nationals my guess is Akiko would be left off the team. But if Mao is still clearly struggling at nationals, then I could see her being left off the team, especially if both Akiko and Miki skate well at nationals.

Also French and Czech nationals should be interesting as well. Who will win? Joubert or Amodio? Verner or Brezina?

Layfan · Dec 16, 2010

If Mao does as badly as she has been doing, it's conceivable she won't make it. But I think she would have to be that bad. If she skates acceptably it is very hard to image the Japanese leaving the World Champion and Olympic silver medalist home.

herios · Dec 16, 2010

silverlake22 said:
Japanese ladies is definitely gonna be interesting. I don't really see Miki being left off the team with the GP season she's had (I know she was only 5th at the final, but she did win the FS there by over 5 points so that's gotta be worth something). If Mao brings it at nationals my guess is Akiko would be left off the team. But if Mao is still clearly struggling at nationals, then I could see her being left off the team, especially if both Akiko and Miki skate well at nationals.

Also French and Czech nationals should be interesting as well. Who will win? Joubert or Amodio? Verner or Brezina?

Between Tomas verner and Michal Brezina seems to be a turn of fortunes from last year to this year. Last year Tomas had that viral infection which affected him all year long and lost his leading spot to the newcomer Brezina.
Now While Verner has a nice recovery and looks poised to even challenge for gold at Europeans (he had the best showing in the GP from the Euro guys), Brezina got injured at the beginning of the season at Nebelhorn.
He missed the GP series and returned last wek at Zagreb Golden Spin and he DIDN'T SKATE WELL.

I haven't seen the event, but i checked his result, he had two failures in each SP and LP and finished second to an unknown russian skater to me. So baring a meltdown, Verner looks good to regain his title .

blue_idealist · Dec 16, 2010

1) For the Russian pairs, I think it'll probably be Bazarova/Larionov and Iliuschechkina/Maisuradze in some order, but Gerboldt and Enbert could take a spot away from someone. Bazarova/Larionov showed they are capable of making mistakes at the GP Final. There's also Volosozhar/Trankov but I haven't seen or heard enough about them to guess where they could end up.

2) I think Canada's third man will be Sawyer and the US will send Rippon, Mroz and Abbott (probably Abbott in first place though). I discussed my opinions in other threads (Canadian nationals predictions in the Canadian nationals forum and the us mens' topic in this forum) so I don't feel like rehashing them all again here.

3) Uh, why would Canada give up a women's spot? That's kind of.. rude.

But anyway, I think Asada might end up missing worlds this year. It's not definite that Murakami's a lock either, although it IS probable. I think it's going to be Ando, Murakami, and Suzuki, actually. Suzuki or Murakami could get bumped out for Mao though. Would they maybe send Murakami to Jr. Worlds still and let Mao go to Srs. will Ando and Suzuki, even if she skates poorly?

mskater93 · Dec 16, 2010

blue_idealist said:
1) For the Russian pairs, I think it'll probably be Bazarova/Larionov and Iliuschechkina/Maisuradze in some order, but Gerboldt and Enbert could take a spot away from someone. Bazarova/Larionov showed they are capable of making mistakes at the GP Final. There's also Volosozhar/Trankov but I haven't seen or heard enough about them to guess where they could end up.

2) I think Canada's third man will be Sawyer and the US will send Rippon, Mroz and Abbott (probably Abbott in first place though). I discussed my opinions in other threads (Canadian nationals predictions in the Canadian nationals forum and the us mens' topic in this forum) so I don't feel like rehashing them all again here.

3) Uh, why would Canada give up a women's spot? That's kind of.. rude.

But anyway, I think Asada might end up missing worlds this year. It's not definite that Murakami's a lock either, although it IS probable. I think it's going to be Ando, Murakami, and Suzuki, actually. Suzuki or Murakami could get bumped out for Mao though. Would they maybe send Murakami to Jr. Worlds still and let Mao go to Srs. will Ando and Suzuki, even if she skates poorly?

Isn't Murakami a lock as long as she shows up for Nationals by virtue of her being the highest placing skater at GPF?

Nena · Dec 16, 2010

mskater93 said:
Isn't Murakami a lock as long as she shows up for Nationals by virtue of her being the highest placing skater at GPF?

No. This has been posted so many times.
1. The best 3 skaters of GPS, including GPF in the ranking
2. The top 3 skaters at the National Championships.
3. The best 3 skaters in World Standings as of the end of the nationals.

Right now, Kanako only has #1 while Miki and Akiko meet #1 and #3. Akiko has the highest world ranking.

oleada · Dec 16, 2010

Volosozhar/Trankov scored over 200 points at a local competition and looked great. If they skate clean, they'll be on the world team, IMO. That would leave one spot for Worlds and two for Europeans, which I think will go to one of Bazarova/Larionov, Iliuschekina/Maisuradze or Mukhortova/Blanchard. Gerboldt/Enbert would make the world team in any other country, but not in Russia - they still need a lot of work. I would have said B/L were locks until the GPF.

wallylutz · Dec 16, 2010

Canada will need the two spots in ladies regardless of Joannie Rochette as there are 2 ladies who can potentially be top 10 materials at Worlds, if not better. Amelie Lacoste has been turning some heads and the rumbling I have been hearing thus far is many feel she would be a better bet than Phaneuf as Canada's new Ladies Champion. It will depend on how they skate in Victoria, BC. I hope Cynthia ups her ante such as starting to do 3t+3t b/c toe loop is her best jump and she has enough speed and height to do it. I also hope Amelie shows us what she is made of, she has been impressing Int'l judges quite a bit lately, the Levels she achieved is consistently 4 across the board or almost and the 3Lo+3Lo combo is also ambitious as almost no one else is doing it anymore yet such a breathtaking combo. Canadian ladies sans Rochette can still be tough to beat given that without Joannie, Canada still beat both the U.S. Ladies Champion and U.S. Silver Medalist at the 2010 Worlds. I don't think the Americans would want a repeat again.

mousepotato · Dec 17, 2010

No way will Gerboldt/Enbert make any team (or should I say in Russia :laugh:

) this year and probably not next year either. They are just not good enough yet and I doubt they will be for years. Kavaguti/Smirnov are a lock for going to both Euros and Worlds, their free skate is top notch, easily my favorite of the season.

I feel mostly bad for Bazarova/Larionov and Iliuschechkina/Maisuradze. Both performed well in the GP. B/L got two silvers, third in the short at the GPF; until a bad free dropped them to 5th. I/M got a gold (with no competition) and two 4th places. So really it's going to come down to who performs better at nationals. M/B will throw a real wrench into the third and fourth places.

I hate to say this but I would leave V/T off the world team this year if they can't do any better than first or second at nationals which really shouldn't be a problem. I am interested in seeing what kind of scores V/T get internationally, because I think their national scores have been too high.

PS Can someone find Konstantin Bezmaternikh a new partner?

sunny0760 · Dec 17, 2010

mskater93 said:
Isn't Murakami a lock as long as she shows up for Nationals by virtue of her being the highest placing skater at GPF?

No, not yet. It mostly depends on Natioanls. I forgot the link but latest article says that she still WANTS to go to worlds.
And some JSF people say that Murakami may go to the Winter Asian Games (Jan 31~Feb 6).
Honestly, I thought that if her placement is not as high as expected and anyway she goes to the Asian Games, well, she would not make to worlds.

dorispulaski · Dec 17, 2010

Has Bezmaternikh split up with Imaikina?
St. Petersburg Cup 2010, LP
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fv_QrphUDYI

silverlake22 · Dec 17, 2010

Nena said:
No. This has been posted so many times.
1. The best 3 skaters of GPS, including GPF in the ranking
2. The top 3 skaters at the National Championships.
3. The best 3 skaters in World Standings as of the end of the nationals.

Right now, Kanako only has #1 while Miki and Akiko meet #1 and #3. Akiko has the highest world ranking.

Not according to icenetwork. Miki is #2 and Akiko #5.

ImaginaryPogue · Dec 17, 2010

The icenetwork ranking is different than the ISU ranking. Here's a link to the ISU ranking

janetfan · Dec 17, 2010

ImaginaryPogue said:
The icenetwork ranking is different than the ISU ranking. Here's a link to the ISU ranking

Thanks for the link.
This could also be useful if someone needs to show a good example of garbage.

Why does so much from ISU make me feel like this - :rofl:

Or this -

Many "real sports" have "real rankings."

ISU rankings feel as flawed as the ISU scoring system.

Will Speedy be retiring anytime soon?

ImaginaryPogue · Dec 17, 2010

Unfortunately, the ISU ranking is heavily biased to skaters that have access to the "selected ISU competitions." Check out Samuel Contesti's ranking! Over 1000 points from those competitions

oleada · Dec 18, 2010

V/T's SP from their latest competition a few weeks ago:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EuLY0q7udUU

There's no way they'll be left off the World team if they keep skating like this. Their triple twist is among the best in the world already, and all the other elements were very well done.

herios · Dec 18, 2010

oleada said:
V/T's SP from their latest competition a few weeks ago:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EuLY0q7udUU

There's no way they'll be left off the World team if they keep skating like this. Their triple twist is among the best in the world already, and all the other elements were very well done.

Thank you very much, the twist was just jaw dropping!

They are some of my favorite skaters who I thought they deserved a better faith in skating that they had thusfar. They will be the team from Russia I will be rooting for big time.

blue dog · Dec 18, 2010

oleada said:
V/T's SP from their latest competition a few weeks ago:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EuLY0q7udUU

There's no way they'll be left off the World team if they keep skating like this. Their triple twist is among the best in the world already, and all the other elements were very well done.

*SIGH* Loved it! Like Aliona, and Qing, Tatiana is still one of the very best female pairs skaters. Maybe one day soon, Max will grow into her equal.

NMURA · Dec 18, 2010

mskater93 said:
Isn't Murakami a lock as long as she shows up for Nationals by virtue of her being the highest placing skater at GPF?

The highest podium placement at GPF clause was dropped because there's a risk someone like Suzuki can take an advantage. Originally this condition was considered as an insurance when the favorites bombed at Nationals. Last year, Asada failed make GPF and Takahashi bomed at GPF, therefore it became useless.

Questions as we head into the various nationals.

ImaginaryPogue

silverlake22

Layfan

herios

blue_idealist

mskater93

Nena

oleada

wallylutz

mousepotato

sunny0760

dorispulaski

Wicked Yankee Girl

silverlake22

ImaginaryPogue

janetfan

Match Penalty

ImaginaryPogue

oleada

herios

blue dog

Trixie Schuba's biggest fan!

NMURA

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