Alternative ways to determine Worlds roster

[Mrs. P]

OK, so we've been railing on about how Russia needs five spots in pairs and Japan needs like five spots in ladies. So I've been thinking about a system where they could achieve that.

1.) 42 entries total. 24 move on to free skate.
2.) Top 5 in last year's Worlds directly qualify. These spots are non-transferable.
3.) So do medalists from the GPF.
3.) Nations can earn up to 3 additional spots based on results from previous Worlds. Same as current ISU system
3 skaters = Top 2 skaters placements equaling less than 13 keep 3. More than 13 but less than 28 get 2. If they fall below 28 they get only one berth.
2 skaters = Total placements equaling less than 13 get 3. More than 13 but less than 28 keep 2. If both skaters placements equal more than 28, one berth.
1 skater = Top 2 placement gets 3 skaters; Top 10 placement gets 2; Below top 10 only one skater goes.
However in order to have at least one placement, you have to have had one skater make the free skate in the previous year.
4.) Remaining nations who don't qualify in any of the ways above will have to earn the spots in a qualifying round to be held at Worlds. Or perhaps earn it at a Senior "B" like they do at the Olympics.
5.) If a county or skater relinquishes their spot, then it counts for the qualifying round/competition.

** NOTE-- The federations can continue to choose who exactly gets these spots.

So if we did the ladies here's what we got.

1 JPN Mao Asada
2 KOR Kim Yu-Na
3 FIN Laura Lepistö
4 JPN Miki Ando
5 CAN Cynthia Phaneuf

+GPF Medalists
6. USA Alissa Czisny
7. ITA Carolina Kostner
8. JPN Kankano Murakami

+ Additional Spots (for previous Worlds placement)
9. JPN
10. JPN
11 JPN
12 CAN
13 CAN
14 KOR
15 KOR
16 FIN
17 FIN
18 ITA
19 ITA
20 RUS
21 RUS
22 SWE
23 SWE
24 USA
25 USA
26. GBR
27. GER
28. HUN
29. CHN
30. AUS
31. GEO
32. ESP
33. EST
34. UZE
35. NED

With 42 spots, there are 7 left in the qualifying round. Of course there are more if spots are given up.

So under this system..Japan could send up to six skaters but the U.S. only gain an additional spot because neither Flatt nor Nagasu were in the top 5.
I don't know, just playing for fun. But by doing it this way, you ensure that the BEST skaters get to compete. Would love to hear your thoughts.

ETA: This system would also never fly because then certain ISU member organizations would probably always be left out....but hey we can dream.

ETA 2: Tweaked it a bit based on the feedback received so far. Also erase all names except that of the Top 5 and medalists at GPF because yes we don't know who will get them if this was the system.

[seniorita]

I think top ten in one year worlds might be a light year distance from the skater´s condition by next year Worlds, plus the way you propose these would be name holders spots instead of country spots and the same people would compete again and again skipping the qualify round based on their performance a year before? In a year countries have different champions, top 3 skaters, athletes get injured, in a year the picture changes completely.
And concerning the small Isu countries, you never know from which country the next Yuna will appear, personally I dont remember Korea in the skating map before Yuna. Any interest the small skating countries have will be lost and with this the financial support to its athletes.
For the best of the best there is the GP, worlds is ..the World competing

[gkelly]

3.) Nations can earn up 2 or 3 additional spots under the current system by having placed well the previously year. (Use current ISU system).
...
+ Additional Spots (for good placement)
13 JPN Akiko Suzuki
14 JPN Yuko Nishiro
15 JPN Fumie Suguri
20 FIN Kiira Korpi
24 RUS Alena Leonova
25 RUS Sofia Biryukova
28 USA (Christina Gao/Ashley Wagner/Caroline Zhang)
29 USA (Christina Gao/Ashley Wagner/Caroline Zhang)

How did you come up with the numbers of extra spots these countries earned for good placement? Not sure what you meant by "use current ISU system."

I.e., why does Japan get three, Finland one, Russia and US two? Is it based on last year's Worlds results? ISU world standings (as of what date)?

And how did you come up with the names?

Are those specific skaters prequalified on account of their world standings or specific past international results?

Are you going down the list of results at Japanese, Finnish, and Russian nationals and choosing the top finishers on the theory that that's who the federations would choose to send to fill those spots?

Are you guessing that the top two finishers at US Nationals who are not already prequalified according to your rules 2 and 3 will be two of Gao, Wagner, and Zhang? In that case, if someone else places higher than two or three of those ladies at US Nationals, then that someone else could be sent instead? Or is there some rule by which only those three skaters, plus the three who are prequalified based on last year's Worlds and GPF finish, would be eligible, and even if all the medalists at Nationals turn out to be skaters whose names you didn't mention in your post, none of them would be allowed to compete at Worlds because they don't have the right international qualifications?

What probably makes more sense to me would be to say something like all GPF medalists and all European and Four Continents medalists from this season, and maybe all Worlds medalists from last season, get a free spot at Worlds without affecting the number of open entries their country is allowed to send. Then each country is also allowed to send one additional skater. Or maybe two or three skaters based on past results, although figuring out a fair formula to decide that would be tricky.

Who does or doesn't have to skate qualifying rounds is another tricky question.

[SerpentineSteps]

OK, so we've been railing on about how Russia needs five spots in pairs and Japan needs like five spots in ladies. So I've been thinking about a system where they could achieve that.

1.) 40 entries total. 24 move on to free skate.
2.) Top 10 in last year's Worlds directly qualify.
3.) So do medalists from the GPF.
3.) Nations can earn up 2 or 3 additional spots under the current system by having placed well the previously year. (Use current ISU system).
4.) Remaining nations who don't qualify in any of the ways above will have to earn the spots in a qualifying round.
5.) If a county or skater relinquishes their spot, then it counts for the qualifying round.

So if we did the ladies here's what we got.

1 JPN Mao Asada
2 KOR Kim Yu-Na
3 FIN Laura Lepistö
4 JPN Miki Ando
5 CAN Cynthia Phaneuf
6 ITA Carolina Kostner
7 USA Mirai Nagasu
8 RUS Ksenia Makarova
9 USA Rachael Flatt
10 SWE Viktoria Helgesson

+GPF Medalists
11 USA Alissa Czisny
12. JPN Kankano Murakami

+ Additional Spots (for good placement)
13 JPN Akiko Suzuki
14 JPN Yuko Nishiro
15 JPN Fumie Suguri
16 CAN
17 CAN
18 KOR
19 KOR
20 FIN Kiira Korpi
21 FIN
22 ITA
23 ITA
24 RUS Alena Leonova
25 RUS Sofia Biryukova
26 SWE
27 SWE
28 USA (Christina Gao/Ashley Wagner/Caroline Zhang)
29 USA (Christina Gao/Ashley Wagner/Caroline Zhang)

With 40 spots, there are 11 left in the qualifying round. Of course there are more if spots are given up.

So under this system..Japan could send up to six skaters, U.S. five.
I don't know, just playing for fun. But by doing it this way, you ensure that the BEST skaters get to compete. Would love to hear your thoughts.

ETA: This system would also never fly because then certain ISU member organizations would probably always be left out....but hey we can dream.

Interesting idea, but who the hell is Yuko Nishiro? lol.

[burntBREAD]

Interesting idea, but who the hell is Yuko Nishiro? lol.

Probably Yuki Nishino.

[Mrs. P]

Interesting idea, but who the hell is Yuko Nishiro? lol.

Hehe, yes I meant Yuki. Guess I typed "O" by accident.

[Mrs. P]

How did you come up with the numbers of extra spots these countries earned for good placement? Not sure what you meant by "use current ISU system."

I.e., why does Japan get three, Finland one, Russia and US two? Is it based on last year's Worlds results? ISU world standings (as of what date)?

And how did you come up with the names?

Are those specific skaters prequalified on account of their world standings or specific past international results?

Are you going down the list of results at Japanese, Finnish, and Russian nationals and choosing the top finishers on the theory that that's who the federations would choose to send to fill those spots?

Are you guessing that the top two finishers at US Nationals who are not already prequalified according to your rules 2 and 3 will be two of Gao, Wagner, and Zhang? In that case, if someone else places higher than two or three of those ladies at US Nationals, then that someone else could be sent instead? Or is there some rule by which only those three skaters, plus the three who are prequalified based on last year's Worlds and GPF finish, would be eligible, and even if all the medalists at Nationals turn out to be skaters whose names you didn't mention in your post, none of them would be allowed to compete at Worlds because they don't have the right international qualifications?

What probably makes more sense to me would be to say something like all GPF medalists and all European and Four Continents medalists from this season, and maybe all Worlds medalists from last season, get a free spot at Worlds without affecting the number of open entries their country is allowed to send. Then each country is also allowed to send one additional skater. Or maybe two or three skaters based on past results, although figuring out a fair formula to decide that would be tricky.

Who does or doesn't have to skate qualifying rounds is another tricky question.

Good questions.

1.) I'm basing it on previous worlds results just like now. So with three skaters -- if the top two skaters' placement is less than 13 = 3 skaters less than 28 = 2 skaters. With two skaters, it's the same. With one skater if the skater places top 2 = 3 skaters top 10 = 2 skaters.

2.) The names are a rough based on already completed nationals. Of course each federation could still choose their skaters under my proposed system. (Hence choosing not to automatically place European or 4CC medalists as that's a way federations choose their skaters). I'm guessing Gao, Wagner and Zhang because they are who I think would likely qualify but if someone else finishes ahead of them, of course they would qualify. I think I'm going to edit it to leave it blank.

3.) The ISU is already starting a qualifying round system this year. Basically 18 skaters are sent directly (forget the criteria) then the remaining 12 entries (for a total of 30) are from a qualifying round. I think it's reasonable that some ISU members would go for it.

[Mrs. P]

Okay folks I've played around with it based on the feedback....

Also changed the title to encourage others to come up with their own systems.

[Chemistry66]

Quick thought before I go to bed (might give more tomorrow):

What about Carolina Kostner? She won silver, so shouldn't be be on the list of GPF medalists?

[Mrs. P]

Quick thought before I go to bed (might give more tomorrow):

What about Carolina Kostner? She won silver, so shouldn't be be on the list of GPF medalists?

Ah. She was qualified under my first version for being Top 10. Forgot to correct in new version. Corrected.

[Ivana]

Interesting idea. As a figure skating fan I can say that seeing more skaters would be awesome.
However with ISU, cutting down the spots year by year, such a model is more then unlikely.

[Selina11]

What do you mean with 42 entries total? Do you mean the full number of competitors, with the skaters who skate only the qualifying round? There were 53 ladies at the last three worlds, why do you want to limit the number of entries to 42? The ISU made a minimum score rule for ISU Championships at the last ISU congress, which is already too difficult for many skaters from smaller federations to reach, so they cant even skate the qualifying round. I dont like the idea to limit the entries number at worlds, or did i misunderstood something?

[gkelly]

I think she means 42 in the short program, after cuts are made from a qualifying round or prior competition.

[Mrs. P]

What do you mean with 42 entries total? Do you mean the full number of competitors, with the skaters who skate only the qualifying round? There were 53 ladies at the last three worlds, why do you want to limit the number of entries to 42? The ISU made a minimum score rule for ISU Championships at the last ISU congress, which is already too difficult for many skaters from smaller federations to reach, so they cant even skate the qualifying round. I dont like the idea to limit the entries number at worlds, or did i misunderstood something?

42 entries total. Basically 7 groups of six. The qualifying round (or competition) would provide for remaining spots not covered by other federations.

And the ISU is trending toward having less competitors at the Worlds with not only a qualifying score, but I believe some competitors even have to do a qualifying round at worlds (though I don't know that for sure).

And I don't think the minimal score rule is that tough for even for the smallest federations. Tony Wheeler's at Flutzing Around is doing a Roster watch for europeans where he lists the minimum total elements score for ladies 15.0 in the short program, and 25.0 in the free skate..

So in the short program you probably could do all doubles and level 1 spins and steps and make the minimum per this example:
double axel -3.3
double loop- 1.8
double toe loop-double toe loop - 2.8
LSp1 - 1.5
CSp1 - 1.4
CCoSp1 - 2.0
SiS1- 1.8

TOTAL= 14.60
You would only need a 0.4 +GOE to make that minimal score. But point is that even skaters from the smallest federations are doing harder content than that. Of course, they lose major points for -GOE or falling or URs...

At the 2010 Worlds...all but 7 of the 53 competitors made the minimal score for the short program. And all 24 competitors in the free skate made the minimal score required for the FS.

[gkelly]

the minimum total elements score for ladies 15.0 in the short program, and 25.0 in the free skate..

So in the short program you probably could do all doubles and level 1 spins and steps and make the minimum per this example:
double axel -3.3
double loop- 1.8
double toe loop-double toe loop - 2.8

In a junior short program, this would work fine (in years when the junior required jump out of steps is double or triple loop -- the other years they would use double lutz or flip as required).

And it is possible for 15- to 19-year-olds to use scores earned in junior competition to qualify them for the senior championships.

In senior competition, though, both the jump out of steps and at least one jump in the combination are required to be triple -- otherwise the GOE is an automatic -3. Which means that the remaining value of those two elements after GOE reduction will be very small if only doubles are attempted. Upgrading to, say, 2F+2Lo and 2Lz from steps would only gain a few more tenths of a point.

Skaters who just plain can't come close to executing any triples will include doubles in their senior SPs, but they would need to do a lot better than level 1 with 0 GOE on the nonjump elements to meet the minimum score.

If they can stand up on attempts at the easier triples, they might be better off planning, say, 3T+2T and 3S from steps. Even if both triple attempts end up getting downgraded, they might earn only -2 instead of -3. And, as of this year, if they're a little closer to full rotation, the < "underrotation" penalty, 70% of the triple base value, would be worth more than the double base value for << downgrades.

In long programs triples or double axels are not required, so the skaters can do whatever jumps they're comfortable with and earn positive GOE on them as applicable.

It would still be preferable for those skaters to have strong spins and steps to make up for the less-than-senior jump content or quality.

Strong PCS will help their placement, e.g., give them a chance of making the cut to the free program at Euros or 4Cs, but it won't help them get to those championships in the first place because the minimum scores are based on TES only.