I dearly wish three male US representatives and two female representatives have "a phenomenally on two days" and skate their heart out! I really want to see 3 slots for both men's and ladys'.
But that's just it! The fact that I have to pray for an "on day" indicates the state of single skating in the US.
Last edited by CARA; 01-06-2011 at 01:24 AM.
Still I think Jeremy, when he's on (or even just slightly off) can easily beat Verner and Amodio. I think it would be more challenging to beat the 3 Japanese men and Chan. But I think if he shows his magic, he could definitely give all four of them a run for his money. So I think the worse he could do honestly is 7th, which would make it tough to keep 3 spots. But the odds are more in his favor to finish 6th or even on the podium.
Mroz also lost the tiebreaker to Amodio, but like him and Jeremy, also had a silver and bronze in GP, so I can't say he did that bad either. I think if he's clean, he can manage a 7th place finish at Worlds.
Rippon was pretty terrible at Skate America, but I can't write him off either to do his part. He did well at Worlds last year, so maybe he'll peak there if he makes the team.
So I say the odds are more like 50/50 depending on who we send.
I think you're being a bit pessimistic. Despite not having any U.S. men make the GPF, the alternatives were all made out of U.S. Men. In addition a U.S. man medeled in all the GP events. NHK (Abbott - Silver); Skate Canada (Rippon- bronze) COC (Mroz -Silver) COR (Abbott - Bronze) Skate America (Mahbanoozadeh - Bronze) Trophee Eric Bompard (Mroz - Bronze).But that's just it! The fact that I have to pray for an "on day" indicates the state of single skating in the US.
Japan is the only other country whose skaters managed the same feat. Of course Japan one ups with having three skaters make the GPF Final. Oh yeah, and let's not forget that Richard Dornbush won the GPF Final in the juniors level.
Point is, is that the GP actually showed how deep the U.S. men's field is. Canada's is not far behind, but even Reynolds with all his quads could not break through. I think whatever three men will send, will be fighting for top 10 spots.
Last edited by Mrs. P; 01-06-2011 at 03:20 AM.
Good to see the detailed analysis like yours. After reading it, I must agree that I am a bit too pessimistic.
The women weren't too bad either with two making the final and two ending up as alternates. Cup of China was the only event where a U.S. woman did not medal ( Nagasu would've if she didn't do that invalid 2A combo). But then two women medaled at TEB (Flatt and Czisny) so as far as number of medals, the women are even with the men at six. Again only Japan did better by having three woman make the final.
However whether the 2 us women can get two spots is more uncertain with Yuna coming back and Mao starting to get back into peak form again.
Mrs.P - Doesn't the magic number for Worlds change to 18 if there are 3 skaters. 13 is fine for two skaters but if 3 are entered, the 3 must total 18 as I understand it. So the Team selected by the USFS must be carefully chosen among the Men. However, the US Nats' results will select the team, I suppose.
I would love to see Armin do another comp before Nats just to see if his GP was just a one time thing. If it wasn't I would replace Adam for Armin who has more appeal to the audience. Jeremy, Brandon, and Armin - 3 different styles would suit me as the Nats' results.
No, you are thinking of the "if one of your skaters finished below 18, they have to skate the qualifying round" rule. If there are three skaters and two finish 2+11 and the third 20th, there will be three skaters next year, but the one with the lowest world standing when the world team is chosen will have to skate the qualifying round. If the three skaters are 2, 11, and 15, then three skaters and all are automatically in
As for Jeremy's odds of beating Amodio, Verner, Joubert, I think a lot will depend on Europeans. For example, if Tomas comes into worlds as European Champion, he may be given a PCS boost and I could definitely see him beating Jeremy if he skates well, the same goes for Joubert and maybe even Amodio if one of them wins. On the other hand, if say Joubert or Verner is 3rd at Euros or OTP, then Jeremy's odds of beating them at Worlds are better, especially if he comes in as US champion.
But I mean in 2009, Joubert and Verner both made mistakes at Worlds and still finished well ahead of Jeremy, 3rd and 4th versus 11th, and that was the season Jeremy won the GPF and US nationals and Tomas was 6th at Europeans. I always feel like the judges want a European up in the standings at Worlds, and this season the top Europeans appear to be Verner, Amodio, and Joubert. I wouldn't count them out.
I'm definitely not counting Verner, Amodio and Joubert out, but I don't think we've seen the best of Jeremy either. You have to cosider that in 2009 Jeremy totally bombed to 11th, not that politics kept him down. Again it's one of those headcase things-- Jeremy definitely needs to prove he is among the best --but he has the tools to do it.
I would also say you shouldn't count whoever is USA 2 or 3. I think any combination of Bradley, Rippon, Armin, Mroz and even Dornbush could totally show up and shine. The men didn't need Lysacek last year to win three spots and I hope they will prove they don't need him to get 3 spots for 2012.
Last edited by silverlake22; 01-06-2011 at 06:45 PM.
So I would say best case (unlikely) scenario would be 3rd or 4th, worst case would be a self destruction and 9th or 10th. The most likely scenario though factoring in his own inconsistency and lower scoring potential vs Chan, all 3 Japanese, and possibly still Joubert, is him coming somewhere from 5th to 8th, probably around 6th or 7th.
That is already right on the bubble of average for 13. The 2nd U.S man is naturally likely to do worse than him though so keeping 3 spots for next year seems unlikely.
Abbott is not consistent; Rippon had a wonky GP; Mroz was consistent but one mistake and he is a goner. Bradley will entertain the audience (and the judges). The Newbies:; Mahmahboozadeh, Miner, Messing, Faris, Aaron, Dornbush. (Will any of them push someone off the podium)
How can anyone predict with this slippery sport? Better to just list your "hopes". Same for the Ladies
The Ladies: Alissa (has she found consistency?); Nagasu (not since the original Carmen has she done well); Flatt (fully recovered?); Wagner (good but eratic); Zhang (can she speed it up); Gilles (can she do 2 w/o errors?); Zawadski (Will she shake up the podium?).
Remember Personal Tastes are hopes - not predictions.