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Thread: US Nationals Predictions

  1. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by R.D. View Post
    There is no clear favorite in Ladies.

    I'm just going to go based on recent history and that's to say the following:

    - Rachel Flatt will NOT win the event.

    - Czisny will do well for herself, get on the podium somewhere.

    - There will be a surprise entrant among the top 6.

    Note that this is based ONLY on recent history/trends and does NOT reflect my hopes for what will happen in Greensboro.
    Unless we have a repeat of 2008 and the podium is a complete surprised and comprised entirely up and comers, something like Gao, Zawadzki, Siraj, and Lam.

  2. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by CoyoteChris View Post
    CARA, I pretty much agree with you, but anyone can have a good day and anyone can have a bad day. I think if Jeremy and Adam go to worlds this year and they are on, there is a 20 percent chance that they could make say 6th and 7th. Is 13 is the magic number?
    I believe 13 is the magic number. And I totally agree that anyone can have a good day.

    I dearly wish three male US representatives and two female representatives have "a phenomenally on two days" and skate their heart out! I really want to see 3 slots for both men's and ladys'.

    But that's just it! The fact that I have to pray for an "on day" indicates the state of single skating in the US.
    Last edited by CARA; 01-06-2011 at 12:24 AM.

  3. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by CARA View Post
    Oh, that's interesting. I'd say the odd of having three men are almost nil. Because:

    1. If we go strictly with the last year's worlds placement (Jeremy 5th & Adam 6th), the US should still be able to retain 3 slots for the 2012 worlds. However, several prominent competitors w/drew from the last year's worlds (Stephen, Evan, Johnny, Evegeny, etc), and I don't expect that "lucky" at this year's world

    2. None of the top US skaters have had outstanding season so far, e.g., no US male skaters at the GPF;

    3. Unlike Japan, the ranks of experienced/top males skaters had retired in the US. Hence, it may take 1-3 years to build up experienced/top US male skaters.
    Jeremy did not do that bad at GP, though he did not skate his best. He medeled at both his events (2nd and 3rd). Last year he was 1st and 5th. What it came down to this year is that Amodio got a silver and hometown boost at TEB with scoring and got enough points to win the tiebreaker (and get into the final). That FS, as entertaining as it did not merit 153 points, when Jeremy's near clean program at NHK only got 143 (and not to mention that Amodio should have not beaten him in the FS either with a near equal score). I know you can't compare competitions, but still...you kinda have to here when that is what the tiebreaker is.

    Still I think Jeremy, when he's on (or even just slightly off) can easily beat Verner and Amodio. I think it would be more challenging to beat the 3 Japanese men and Chan. But I think if he shows his magic, he could definitely give all four of them a run for his money. So I think the worse he could do honestly is 7th, which would make it tough to keep 3 spots. But the odds are more in his favor to finish 6th or even on the podium.

    Mroz also lost the tiebreaker to Amodio, but like him and Jeremy, also had a silver and bronze in GP, so I can't say he did that bad either. I think if he's clean, he can manage a 7th place finish at Worlds.

    Rippon was pretty terrible at Skate America, but I can't write him off either to do his part. He did well at Worlds last year, so maybe he'll peak there if he makes the team.

    So I say the odds are more like 50/50 depending on who we send.

    But that's just it! The fact that I have to pray for an "on day" indicates the state of single skating in the US.
    I think you're being a bit pessimistic. Despite not having any U.S. men make the GPF, the alternatives were all made out of U.S. Men. In addition a U.S. man medeled in all the GP events. NHK (Abbott - Silver); Skate Canada (Rippon- bronze) COC (Mroz -Silver) COR (Abbott - Bronze) Skate America (Mahbanoozadeh - Bronze) Trophee Eric Bompard (Mroz - Bronze).

    Japan is the only other country whose skaters managed the same feat. Of course Japan one ups with having three skaters make the GPF Final. Oh yeah, and let's not forget that Richard Dornbush won the GPF Final in the juniors level.

    Point is, is that the GP actually showed how deep the U.S. men's field is. Canada's is not far behind, but even Reynolds with all his quads could not break through. I think whatever three men will send, will be fighting for top 10 spots.
    Last edited by Mrs. P; 01-06-2011 at 02:20 AM.

  4. #34
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    Mrs. P:
    Good to see the detailed analysis like yours. After reading it, I must agree that I am a bit too pessimistic.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CARA View Post
    Mrs. P:
    Good to see the detailed analysis like yours. After reading it, I must agree that I am a bit too pessimistic.
    You're welcome! Glad to have the discussion.

    The women weren't too bad either with two making the final and two ending up as alternates. Cup of China was the only event where a U.S. woman did not medal ( Nagasu would've if she didn't do that invalid 2A combo). But then two women medaled at TEB (Flatt and Czisny) so as far as number of medals, the women are even with the men at six. Again only Japan did better by having three woman make the final.

    However whether the 2 us women can get two spots is more uncertain with Yuna coming back and Mao starting to get back into peak form again.

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    Go USA!

  7. #37
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    Mrs.P - Doesn't the magic number for Worlds change to 18 if there are 3 skaters. 13 is fine for two skaters but if 3 are entered, the 3 must total 18 as I understand it. So the Team selected by the USFS must be carefully chosen among the Men. However, the US Nats' results will select the team, I suppose.

    I would love to see Armin do another comp before Nats just to see if his GP was just a one time thing. If it wasn't I would replace Adam for Armin who has more appeal to the audience. Jeremy, Brandon, and Armin - 3 different styles would suit me as the Nats' results.

  8. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joesitz View Post
    Mrs.P - Doesn't the magic number for Worlds change to 18 if there are 3 skaters. 13 is fine for two skaters but if 3 are entered, the 3 must total 18 as I understand it. So the Team selected by the USFS must be carefully chosen among the Men. However, the US Nats' results will select the team, I suppose.

    No, you are thinking of the "if one of your skaters finished below 18, they have to skate the qualifying round" rule. If there are three skaters and two finish 2+11 and the third 20th, there will be three skaters next year, but the one with the lowest world standing when the world team is chosen will have to skate the qualifying round. If the three skaters are 2, 11, and 15, then three skaters and all are automatically in

  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mrs. P View Post
    Jeremy did not do that bad at GP, though he did not skate his best. He medeled at both his events (2nd and 3rd). Last year he was 1st and 5th. What it came down to this year is that Amodio got a silver and hometown boost at TEB with scoring and got enough points to win the tiebreaker (and get into the final). That FS, as entertaining as it did not merit 153 points, when Jeremy's near clean program at NHK only got 143 (and not to mention that Amodio should have not beaten him in the FS either with a near equal score). I know you can't compare competitions, but still...you kinda have to here when that is what the tiebreaker is.

    Still I think Jeremy, when he's on (or even just slightly off) can easily beat Verner and Amodio. I think it would be more challenging to beat the 3 Japanese men and Chan. But I think if he shows his magic, he could definitely give all four of them a run for his money. So I think the worse he could do honestly is 7th, which would make it tough to keep 3 spots. But the odds are more in his favor to finish 6th or even on the podium.
    Amodio skated way better than Jeremy this season, period. And I know some people don't like his programs, but I do think his scores were deserved just due to the quality of his jumps - Amodio has strong, powerful jumps that often look textbook perfect. At NHK Jeremy SINGLED two axels, one of which was intended to be a 3a, and Amodio was almost clean, so I really don't take issue with the fact that Amodio beat Jeremy by less than a point in that segment.

    As for Jeremy's odds of beating Amodio, Verner, Joubert, I think a lot will depend on Europeans. For example, if Tomas comes into worlds as European Champion, he may be given a PCS boost and I could definitely see him beating Jeremy if he skates well, the same goes for Joubert and maybe even Amodio if one of them wins. On the other hand, if say Joubert or Verner is 3rd at Euros or OTP, then Jeremy's odds of beating them at Worlds are better, especially if he comes in as US champion.

    But I mean in 2009, Joubert and Verner both made mistakes at Worlds and still finished well ahead of Jeremy, 3rd and 4th versus 11th, and that was the season Jeremy won the GPF and US nationals and Tomas was 6th at Europeans. I always feel like the judges want a European up in the standings at Worlds, and this season the top Europeans appear to be Verner, Amodio, and Joubert. I wouldn't count them out.

  10. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by silverlake22 View Post
    Amodio skated way better than Jeremy this season, period. And I know some people don't like his programs, but I do think his scores were deserved just due to the quality of his jumps - Amodio has strong, powerful jumps that often look textbook perfect. At NHK Jeremy SINGLED two axels, one of which was intended to be a 3a, and Amodio was almost clean, so I really don't take issue with the fact that Amodio beat Jeremy by less than a point in that segment.

    As for Jeremy's odds of beating Amodio, Verner, Joubert, I think a lot will depend on Europeans. For example, if Tomas comes into worlds as European Champion, he may be given a PCS boost and I could definitely see him beating Jeremy if he skates well, the same goes for Joubert and maybe even Amodio if one of them wins. On the other hand, if say Joubert or Verner is 3rd at Euros or OTP, then Jeremy's odds of beating them at Worlds are better, especially if he comes in as US champion.

    But I mean in 2009, Joubert and Verner both made mistakes at Worlds and still finished well ahead of Jeremy, 3rd and 4th versus 11th, and that was the season Jeremy won the GPF and US nationals and Tomas was 6th at Europeans. I always feel like the judges want a European up in the standings at Worlds, and this season the top Europeans appear to be Verner, Amodio, and Joubert. I wouldn't count them out.
    It's also worth noting that Amodio also singled his double Axel, so he wasn't completely clean either. That said, yes Florent has great jumps and footwork, but he clearly does not have the choreo and transition that Jeremy does. I saw a video that counts that Amodio spends 40 seconds of his program dancing in place...in a 4 minute program...that makes a huge different in your stammia! I think Jeremy is hugely underscored in PCS. His PCS should be in the league of Chan and Dai not hovering in the 70s.

    I'm definitely not counting Verner, Amodio and Joubert out, but I don't think we've seen the best of Jeremy either. You have to cosider that in 2009 Jeremy totally bombed to 11th, not that politics kept him down. Again it's one of those headcase things-- Jeremy definitely needs to prove he is among the best --but he has the tools to do it.

    I would also say you shouldn't count whoever is USA 2 or 3. I think any combination of Bradley, Rippon, Armin, Mroz and even Dornbush could totally show up and shine. The men didn't need Lysacek last year to win three spots and I hope they will prove they don't need him to get 3 spots for 2012.

  11. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mrs. P View Post
    I think Jeremy is hugely underscored in PCS. His PCS should be in the league of Chan and Dai not hovering in the 70s.
    Last edited by Ptichka; 01-06-2011 at 08:53 PM.

  12. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mrs. P View Post
    It's also worth noting that Amodio also singled his double Axel, so he wasn't completely clean either. That said, yes Florent has great jumps and footwork, but he clearly does not have the choreo and transition that Jeremy does. I saw a video that counts that Amodio spends 40 seconds of his program dancing in place...in a 4 minute program...that makes a huge different in your stammia! I think Jeremy is hugely underscored in PCS. His PCS should be in the league of Chan and Dai not hovering in the 70s.

    I'm definitely not counting Verner, Amodio and Joubert out, but I don't think we've seen the best of Jeremy either. You have to cosider that in 2009 Jeremy totally bombed to 11th, not that politics kept him down. Again it's one of those headcase things-- Jeremy definitely needs to prove he is among the best --but he has the tools to do it.

    I would also say you shouldn't count whoever is USA 2 or 3. I think any combination of Bradley, Rippon, Armin, Mroz and even Dornbush could totally show up and shine. The men didn't need Lysacek last year to win three spots and I hope they will prove they don't need him to get 3 spots for 2012.
    Regarding Jeremy's PCS, I think that will come with more major accomplishments (Worlds medals, 4CC medals, GPF medals, etc) which he currently doesn't have a lot of. Joubert, Verner, and Rippon also have PCS that generally "hover in the 70s" and I think if they have more good performances and major medals their PCS will (should) also increase. But 70s is actually pretty good, even Oda and Kozuka only break 80 if they skate incredibly well. Ryan, Brandon, and Armin have PCS only in the 60s so the fact that Jeremy gets PCS in the 70s even when he tanks is pretty impressive in the grand scheme of things. Takahashi and Chan, and Lysacek when he was still skating, well yeah, their PCS are permanently in the 80s, but I honestly think those marks are too high for these skaters when they don't skate their best, and it becomes especially irritating because both Dai and Patrick are prone to mistakes. I'd rather see Dai and Patrick hover in the 70s for sub par performances so as to prevent 4 fall victories .
    Last edited by silverlake22; 01-06-2011 at 05:45 PM.

  13. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mrs. P View Post
    Still I think Jeremy, when he's on (or even just slightly off) can easily beat Verner and Amodio. I think it would be more challenging to beat the 3 Japanese men and Chan. But I think if he shows his magic, he could definitely give all four of them a run for his money. So I think the worse he could do honestly is 7th, which would make it tough to keep 3 spots. But the odds are more in his favor to finish 6th or even on the podium.
    Forget about Abbott beating Chan. Chan has atleast a 6 fall cushion on Abbott. So moving on from him while Abbott could beat Takahashi, Oda, or Kozuka one of those would need a complete disaester and Abbott and outstanding competition. We saw at NHK how far Abbott is behind Takahashi with comparable programs/mistakes (Takahashi actually probably had more). The odds are not on all of them bombing of course, so lets say best case scenario is Abbott skates the competition of his life or atleast extremely well and 1 or 2 of the 3 Japanese bomb badly, already unlikely combination but I am talking best case scenario, which would leave him 4th or even 3rd. Yes Abbott skating well could definitely beat Verner and Amodio but both those men have been more consistent than Abbott this year so he isnt neccessarily likely to beat either. And Joubert is still a big threat to place above Abbott as well. Of course Abbott being Abbott there is every chance he not only makes some mistakes but semi bombs or bombs himself.

    So I would say best case (unlikely) scenario would be 3rd or 4th, worst case would be a self destruction and 9th or 10th. The most likely scenario though factoring in his own inconsistency and lower scoring potential vs Chan, all 3 Japanese, and possibly still Joubert, is him coming somewhere from 5th to 8th, probably around 6th or 7th.

    That is already right on the bubble of average for 13. The 2nd U.S man is naturally likely to do worse than him though so keeping 3 spots for next year seems unlikely.

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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    Forget about Abbott beating Chan. Chan has atleast a 6 fall cushion on Abbott.
    That's a typical Chinese exaggeration. Patrick Chan with 6 falls won't be higher than 220 outside of Chanada. Abbott with 2 or 3 falls will be on that range.

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    Abbott is not consistent; Rippon had a wonky GP; Mroz was consistent but one mistake and he is a goner. Bradley will entertain the audience (and the judges). The Newbies:; Mahmahboozadeh, Miner, Messing, Faris, Aaron, Dornbush. (Will any of them push someone off the podium)

    How can anyone predict with this slippery sport? Better to just list your "hopes". Same for the Ladies

    The Ladies: Alissa (has she found consistency?); Nagasu (not since the original Carmen has she done well); Flatt (fully recovered?); Wagner (good but eratic); Zhang (can she speed it up); Gilles (can she do 2 w/o errors?); Zawadski (Will she shake up the podium?).

    Remember Personal Tastes are hopes - not predictions.

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