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Thread: US Nationals Predictions

  1. #16
    GoldExpress reynycpr's Avatar
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    Ladies:
    1. Czisny
    2. Nagasu
    3. Flatt
    4. Wagner
    5. Gao
    6. Zawadski

    The hardest to predict is the ladies. My top four is basically based on if they all go clean but any of them can win/medal or be left off the team/podium....lets see who stands up.

    Men:
    1. Abbott
    2. Rippon
    3. Mabanoozadeh
    4. Mroz
    5. Bradley

    Pairs:
    1. Denney/Barrett
    2. Yankowskas/Coughlin
    3. Evora/Ladwig
    4. Castelli/Shnapir

    Dance:
    1. Davis/White
    2. Shibutani/Shibutani
    3. Kriengkrairut/Giulietti-Schmitt

  2. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    Welcome to Golden Skate, hyperbunny! Thanks for the input on juniors and novices.

    Post often, post long!
    Thanks! I thought it couldn't hurt to post the whole thing!

    I've been watching the Nov. and Jr. like a hawk this year.

  3. #18
    The Future Mrs. Evan Lysacek #1Kerryfan's Avatar
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    LADIES:
    1. Mirai
    2. Alissa
    3. Rachael
    4. Ashley
    5. Gao

    MEN:
    1. Jeremy
    2. Adam
    3. Ryan
    4. Armin
    5. Brandon Mroz

    PAIRS:
    1. Yankowskas/ Coughlin
    2. Denney/ Barrett
    3. Evora/ Ladwig
    4. Marley/ Brubaker
    5. Zhang/ Toth

    DANCE:
    1. Davis/ White
    2. Shibutani/ Shibutani
    3. Chock/ Zuherlin
    4. Hubbell/ Hubbell
    5. Kriengkrairut/ Giulietti-Schmitt

  4. #19
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    1. Czisny
    2. Wagner
    3. Nagasu
    4. Zawadski
    5. Gao
    6. Flatt


    1. Abbott
    2. Mroz
    3. Rippon
    4. Mabanoozadeh
    5. Bradley


    1. Yankowskas & Coughlin
    2. Evora & Ladwig
    3. Denney & Barrett
    4. Castelli & Shnapir
    5. Marley & Brubaker


    1. Davis & White
    2. Shibutanis
    3. Chock & Zuerlin
    4. Hubbells

  5. #20
    Custom Title dwiggin3's Avatar
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    Hmmm... I'm surprised at some of these predictions...

    Ladies - I think the top 4 is between Cziny, Flatt, Nagasu and Wagner. It could go any way. I'm not sure I understand the hype about Gao and Zawadski. I've seen both skate and I'm not that impressed. Sorry.

    Men - I think Abbott is a shoe-in with Morz possibly second. As for Rippon and Mabanoozadeh, both have a history of great SP that set them up for medals but then bomb in the LP. Bradley is an unknown at this point. If he's on, he could win the entire thing.

    Dance - White/Davis for sure with Shibs second. Chock/Zuerlein for third though, I'm tempted to go with the Hubbles (sp) and/or Samuelson & Bates for that third spot. (weren't S/B and H/H injured? Even so, both are good teams and might surprise folks). I remember seeing Kriengkrairut/Giulietti-Schmitt and they could be contenders for that 4th place spot.

    I don't really follow pairs anymore...so many changes in partners I loose track!

  6. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by dwiggin3 View Post
    Hmmm... I'm surprised at some of these predictions...

    Ladies - I think the top 4 is between Cziny, Flatt, Nagasu and Wagner. It could go any way. I'm not sure I understand the hype about Gao and Zawadski. I've seen both skate and I'm not that impressed. Sorry.
    It's always informative to read other's reasoning behind predictions.
    I don't know much about technical aspects of skating - one of the reasons why I enjoy reading/participating in this forum so I can learn. So my predictions have a lot to do with emotional/psychological aspects of skating - something that I know a little.

    The reason why I placed Agnes the 4th is the fact that some "debutantes" tend to do better, e.g., Christina Gao's 5th placement at the last year's Nationals. Just like Alex Shibutani mentioned throughout this season, his team having done surprising well might have something to do with "having nothing to lose." In other words, no expectation, no pressure. Agnes appeared to have brought the same attitude to her Sr. GP debut.

    Gao appeared to have the same attitude the last year at the Sr. Nationals; this year she seems to have feeling pressured.

    Beyond that, I see none of the current crop of top US ladies having psychological fortitude that we see in true champions such as Michelle or Yuna. I think Rachael comes the closest, but her leg injury might complicate the picture.

    Hence, the ladies' placement comes down to who skates "clean" without any clear frontrunner, IMHO.
    Last edited by CARA; 01-04-2011 at 01:00 PM.

  7. #22
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    There's indeed no clear frontrunner in Ladies... Rachael, Alissa, Mirai and Ashley have seperated themselves form the rest of the field but none of them is consistent. Rachael used to be quite consistent, but she's struggling now. If I'd have to rank them in rank of consistency it'd be
    1. Rachael
    2. Mirai
    3. Ashley
    4. Alissa

    But based on recent competitions it would be

    1. Alissa
    2. Mirai
    3. Ashley
    4. Rachael

    With Mirai and Ashley being really close, so the judges could go for either of them.

    I'm quite surprised at how negative the predictions are for Ashley. I still have hope that she'll rock this competition..

  8. #23
    she takes the audience on her journey of emotions Layfan's Avatar
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    I think Ashley's programs this year don't do much for her. But she has had a lot of time to prepare and nail them in peace without any hype, so that will be an advantage for her. I'm not counting her for a medal of any color. She's also not struggling with injuries, like Mirai and Rachael, especially Rachael. She lost training time at the beginning of the season not in the middle like poor Rachael did. So that's got to be another advantage for Ashley.

  9. #24
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    I agree their is no clear frontrunner for the ladies, and anything can happen. Alissa, Rachel, Mirai, Ashley, Gao, Agnes are all good decent skaters. but because competition is tough they all have to skate clean-fewest mistakes possible since it could determine the top 3.
    my thinking is if alissa falls once, skates well she will win. 2nd is between rachel & miria. depending on how healed rachel is.
    ashley,gao, agnes can breakthrough depending on skates.
    Anything can happen with the ladies.

    Men-
    Jeremy, ADam, Brandon, Armin 4th
    Pairs-i have no idea except maybe, yankowsas & couglin, denny & barrett, Evora &ladwig the top 3
    my only sure bet is
    Davis WHite for win in dance.
    Shibs i think 2nd
    chock zuerelin for third. or these two could switch.

  10. #25
    Custom Title CoyoteChris's Avatar
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    OK, predictors, with Lysacek "officially" out of the nationals, except for the Gala, what are our odds of having three men on next year's World Team?

  11. #26
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    I'm surprised at the almost unanimous agreement on the dance podium placement, especially the Shibs (silver) & C/Z (bronze).

    I confess that I am partial to the Shibs. Still, those two teams are so evenly matched in their skill levels, strengths/weaknesses.

    For instance, though the Shibs earned highter combined total GP series scores than C/Z, the difference between two teams are miniscule. The Shibs also made major mistakes during their SD performances on both GP meets; both the Shibs & C/Z earned bronze on their respective GP. Both teams have strong FDs.

    I'm just curious what is it about the Shibs that allow many posters higher placement in relation to C/Z.

  12. #27
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    There is no clear favorite in Ladies.

    I'm just going to go based on recent history and that's to say the following:

    - Rachel Flatt will NOT win the event.

    - Czisny will do well for herself, get on the podium somewhere.

    - There will be a surprise entrant among the top 6.

    Note that this is based ONLY on recent history/trends and does NOT reflect my hopes for what will happen in Greensboro.

  13. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by CoyoteChris View Post
    OK, predictors, with Lysacek "officially" out of the nationals, except for the Gala, what are our odds of having three men on next year's World Team?
    Oh, that's interesting. I'd say the odd of having three men are almost nil. Because:

    1. If we go strictly with the last year's worlds placement (Jeremy 5th & Adam 6th), the US should still be able to retain 3 slots for the 2012 worlds. However, several prominent competitors w/drew from the last year's worlds (Stephen, Evan, Johnny, Evegeny, etc), and I don't expect that "lucky" at this year's world

    2. None of the top US skaters have had outstanding season so far, e.g., no US male skaters at the GPF;

    3. Unlike Japan, the ranks of experienced/top males skaters had retired in the US. Hence, it may take 1-3 years to build up experienced/top US male skaters.

  14. #29
    Custom Title CoyoteChris's Avatar
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    CARA, I pretty much agree with you, but anyone can have a good day and anyone can have a bad day. I think if Jeremy and Adam go to worlds this year and they are on, there is a 20 percent chance that they could make say 6th and 7th. Is 13 is the magic number?

    3 months ago, How much money would any of us have bet that Alissa would win the GP Final?

    At nationals, I just hope Rach and Mirai are healthy and Alissa skates from the heart. Let Ashley skate clean too like I hope for them all and let the best skater win.

  15. #30
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    3 months ago, How much money would any of us have bet that Alissa would win the GP Final?
    I would have probably just laughed in your face

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