US Nationals Predictions

[Layfan]

Abbott is not consistent; Rippon had a wonky GP; Mroz was consistent but one mistake and he is a goner. Bradley will entertain the audience (and the judges). The Newbies:; Mahmahboozadeh, Miner, Messing, Faris, Aaron, Dornbush. (Will any of them push someone off the podium)

How can anyone predict with this slippery sport? Better to just list your "hopes". Same for the Ladies

The Ladies: Alissa (has she found consistency?); Nagasu (not since the original Carmen has she done well); Flatt (fully recovered?); Wagner (good but eratic); Zhang (can she speed it up); Gilles (can she do 2 w/o errors?); Zawadski (Will she shake up the podium?).

Remember Personal Tastes are hopes - not predictions.

What "original Carmen" are you referring to? Mirai did great at nationals then at the Olympics. And then she had a great SP at worlds... so I'm kind of confused about your statement. Besides, she did fine at TEB, better than Alissa, anyway. I see her working out her weird spin issue - the only thing that kept her from snatching gold - by nationals. I hope anyway. As you say, ice is slippery.

The rest - good questions for all of these ladies. I'm expecting more from Gao than Gilles, though.

[mskater93]

Gilles has been nothing short of a disaster this season so far.

Nagasu seems to have cleared up her health issues and was improving throughout the fall and beat Czisny on the last head to head

Czisny is currently the one to beat

No one's really sure what state Flatt's in from a preparedness standpoint

Wagner tends to make stupid mistakes that leave her lower than her talent dictates (12th in SP two years ago, 4th in SP last year...)

Zhang has a long way to go in her journey to fix her elements

Gao has improved since last year, but how much and how will she handle the pressure?

Zawadski has been inconsistent so far this year in the LP

But, ice is slippery and it's all about how you handle that pressure....Looking at improvement/decline throughout the GP season give Czisny a two fall cushion most likely. In addition, there's always a suprise in the top 6. Who this year's surprise is is anybody's guess...

For the Men, the top 5 are pretty clear cut - Abbott, Mroz, Rippon, Bradley, Mahbenoozedah are the likely guys with Farris, Hochstein and Brown as spoilers depending on implosions. Abbott has been peaking right around Nationals the last couple years. Here's hoping that he pushes that peak back a little to Worlds and has just enough to make it out...

[R.D.]

Gilles has been nothing short of a disaster this season so far.

Yup.

Nagasu seems to have cleared up her health issues and was improving throughout the fall and beat Czisny on the last head to head

Nagasu is improving and that's where she wants to head. I maintain that when she's on, no American can beat her. I don't see her being outjumped by Flatt this time.

Czisny is currently the one to beat

Hmm...no, Flatt is the one to beat because she's the defending champ.

No one's really sure what state Flatt's in from a preparedness standpoint

After the GPF, true. But I think she will fight for it.

Wagner tends to make stupid mistakes that leave her lower than her talent dictates (12th in SP two years ago, 4th in SP last year...)

The SP has long been her downfall. I don't expect that to change, really.

Zhang has a long way to go in her journey to fix her elements

She really isn't even in the picture this season.

Gao has improved since last year, but how much and how will she handle the pressure?

Certain posters think her time is now, but I think she is where Flatt was in 2007; promising but not yet a Title Contender.

Zawadski has been inconsistent so far this year in the LP

That's putting it nicely.

[SerpentineSteps]

LADIES

1. Alissa Czisny
2. Mirai Nagasu
...
3. Rachael Flatt
4. Christina Gao
5. Ashley Wagner

Rationale:

• Alissa just won the GPF, and her recent coaching change seems to be working well for her, including with regards to her nerves. Even if she makes a few mistakes, the judges will do what they can to put her on the World team, given that they know that international judges currently like her.
• Mirai is also coming off of a strong GP season, and beat Alissa in their last head-to-head; she also had better placements than Rachael in the two major competitions last season (Worlds, Olympics).
• Rachael is fighting an injury, and she isn't likely to have had enough training time to completely overcome her issues. That, and her poor performance at GPF will be fresh on the judges' minds.
• Christina is the hardest to call at this point, since she's been competing on the Junior circuit thus far. My gut instinct puts her in 4th behind Rachael or 3rd behind Mirai if Rachael falters.
• Ashley has been underwhelming this season but can obviously collect enough points with 2 solid programs if Rachael falters and Christina doesn't deliver; I doubt that she'll overtake the top 2 at this point, though.

MEN
1. Jeremy Abbott
2. Adam Rippon
...
3. Armin Mahbanoozadeh
4. Brandon Mroz
5. Ryan Bradley)

• Jeremy is the clear winner in this field, given his performances in the GP circuit and the fact that he's much more experienced than the rest of the field.
• Adam, while having under-performed so far this season, is solid when he delivers, adn the judges know that he can place highly enough to regain the 3 spots for the US next year (sure, many of the heavy-hitters weren't at World's last season, but those that weren't there also chose not to compete this season). Given his experience over the skaters listed below, the judges are likely to be less harsh even in the presence of some mistakes.
• Rationally given their performances this season considering general consistency, Brandon should be above Armin. This said, Armin is coming off of his performance at SA, and could have the momentum to keep Brandon out of the top 3.
• Brandon, though generally reliable this season, seems to be solid thoughout without having outstanding performances like Armin had at SA. I guess the relative rankings of these two depend on whether Armin can keep his momentum going.
• Ryan I haven't been watching really closely, so I can't really say, but given his lack of presence on the GP circuit so far, I put him in 5th.

[mskater93]

I said that Alissa is currently the one to beat based on SB score and since Rachel has had injury issues.

I agree about Nagasu having the most of all the ladies currently, but she has had the tendency to make some stupid errors at times that leave people scratching their heads.

I am hopeful that Wagner can stay on her feet this year during the SP. That could help her overcome the "first alternate" hump.

I was trying to provide a positive comment for each of Zhang, Gilles, and Zawadski as the way they have skated so far would have them round out the bottom of the top 10 (at best and possibly lower) but not approach the top, but you never know.

Gao is getting notice which = getting pressure. She didn't have an awe-inspiring JGP season, but she's got some good stuff and appears to be headed in the right direction. Last year she slipped in under the radar into the top 5. This year, she has a little bit of spotlight, but nowhere near Nagasu, Czisny, Wagner, and Flatt. I believe the World team is 2 of these 4 but it will depend on who steps up in NC as no one has been blindingly awesome and consistent like Kwan, who always seemed to deliver. Heck, if anyone could deliver like that, there'd be an American lady on the World podium consistently, too!

As for men, my hope is for Abbott to save a little something for Worlds but still make the team. Mroz will likely be 2nd with a quad in both programs and Rippon third.

D/W will win dance by just stepping out there as they are clearly the class of the field and S/S, and C/Z stand out from the rest so far this year.

I expect a small upset with C/Y winning pairs and either D/B or E/L rounding out the world team.

[pangtongfan]

That's a typical Chinese exaggeration. Patrick Chan with 6 falls won't be higher than 220 outside of Chanada. Abbott with 2 or 3 falls will be on that range.

In Russia it would have taken a 2nd fall in the short program to put a clean Abbott and Chan about tied based on the short program scores. Double that in the long and you are at 4. 4 + 2 = 6. So yeah Chan is about 6 falls ahead of Abbott, and that is only if Abbott goes somewhat clean, since Abbott usually makes mistakes I guess it would take Chan 8 or 9 falls to possibly lose to him unless he skates more clean than usual. Even by your estimatation it is 3 or 4 falls before they would be about equal but I dont know if you are factoring in there are 2 programs, not just 1, when saying that. In anycase it is pretty silly to even consider Abbott as having a hope of beating Chan was my main point.

[FlattFan]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EmwJAyesvJE

Alissa SP send off. 3 mistakes on 3 jumping passes. TES 27.49 PCS 39.78

[SkateFiguring]

A question: Are US Nationals scores considered inflated compared to international scores in general?

[burntBREAD]

A question: Are US Nationals scores considered inflated compared to international scores in general?

I would say so, but not nearly as much as, say, Russian Nationals. Flatt got 130, Nagasu nearly 117 (?) with 3 downgrades, Wagner 120+ with a few two-footings last year. The scores don't go ridiculously high IMO, but they are noticeably higher.

[Layfan]

^Last year they were more inflated than ever b/c it was an Olympic year. This year I expect the scores won't be as high, especially given that they weren't that high during the GP series.

[SkateFiguring]

I asked about inflation so I could asses/estimate what Abbott's best score's international equivalence would be agreeably since his best was last year's US Nationals, inflated or not, and an excellent skate by any standard. He received positive GOEs in all elements, a quad included, and his LP individual component scores were 8.00 to 9.50, more than his international scores have ever been, but then he has never skated that well internationally.

Anyway, his total scores was 263.66, higher than this year's highest of 259.75 by Chan. OTOH, his 4T and 3A would have been worth more by this year's base values. The second step sequence (level 3) would have lower base value of 2 but the GOE values would have possibly been a little higher. Even discounted by 5%, seeing most posters here seem to think US's scores are less inflated than other Nationals', 250.48 would be the second highest this year, above Kozuka's 248.07 from TEB. Discounted 10%, 237.29 could possibly place him at 4th, compared to everybody's best thus far, definitely still a podium threat.

Wacky fall-advantage scoring system aside, since nobody besides its creator know how to score and calculate with it, Abbott at his best is definitely capable of winning a World's medal, even the gold medal if the stars are aligned for him. The problem is of course that he has not been anywhere near his best at any major international competition, nor has he repeated such performance or near its level. He has not even been credited his full LP TES base value this season, forfeiting elements in his programs. All he did was offer us a glimpse of what he was capable of.

Jeremy Abbott definitely deserves to demonstrate his excellent skating ability and given a chance to try to win a Worlds medal for the US. He is still the best American man even not at his best.

[silverlake22]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EmwJAyesvJE

Alissa SP send off. 3 mistakes on 3 jumping passes. TES 27.49 PCS 39.78

It was actually scored? Those PCS are massive....I don't think Yuna has even gotten PCS that high, because you double it for the long, so that would mean her PCS for the LP would be around 80 points? I don't think that's gonna happen for Alissa, not even at US nationals, at the highest I'd say probably 33 for the SP, 65 ish for the LP.

[Mrs. P]

It was actually scored? Those PCS are massive....I don't think Yuna has even gotten PCS that high, because you double it for the long, so that would mean her PCS for the LP would be around 80 points? I don't think that's gonna happen for Alissa, not even at US nationals, at the highest I'd say probably 33 for the SP, 65 ish for the LP.

I think Flattfan was joking around.

[pangtongfan]

I think the most likely combination for the U.S men to retain 3 spots is say a 5th from Abbott and 8th from Rippon or a 4th from Abbott and a 9th from Rippon, or maybe a 6th and 7th from the two. Not sure how likely that is though.

[Joesitz]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EmwJAyesvJE

Alissa SP send off. 3 mistakes on 3 jumping passes. TES 27.49 PCS 39.78

Alissa's jumps were too close to the Boards and I think the size of the rink affected her. She has to learn how to adapt to various rink and arena sizes.

However the Spins were colosal and her stroking is second to none in the International Field.