An Olympics in 1996 and 2000

Had there been a Winter Olympics in 1996 and 2000 how do you think some of the various events might have looked.

I think it would have looked like the following:

1996 Olympics:

Pairs- Brasseur & Eisler, Shishkova & Naumov, and Kovarikova & Novotny as the main contenders for gold. Eltsova & Bushkov, Woetzel & Steuer, and Kazahkova & Dmitriev as contenders for a bronze or even silver if the favorites make mistakes and they skate well enough. Meno & Sand with an outside shot at bronze only.

Men- Kurt Browning, Elvis Stojko, and Alexei Urmanov as the main contenders for gold. Eldredge and Kulik as the next strongest contenders and a chance of finishing as high as silver. Galindo, Candelero, and Zagorodniuk with an outside shot at the bronze.

Dance- Gritschuk & Platov vs Usova & Zhulin for the gold. Krylova & Ovsiannikov and Rahkammo & Kokko battling for bronze.

Ladies- Lu Chen, Yuka Sato, Oksana Biaul as the main contenders for gold. Nicole Bobek and Surya Bonaly as medal contenders too. The other 2 Americans, teenaged Slutskaya, and an aging Ito as outside threats. I doubt Kwan would have snuck out to take her senior test so soon with no 94 Olympics, and made her senior debut a full year later. While she may have made the 96 Olympics (although not even sure on that) I dont see her as a big contender this year. Of course if I am wrong on that and she still takes the senior test when she does and her career follows the exact same course she would also be a gold contender in 96 and the #1 American by then.


2000 Olympics:

Pairs- Wide open if Elena & Anton are still out. Shen & Zhou and Sale & Pelletier probably with the best chance of gold. Kazahkova & Dmitriev, Woetzel & Steuer, and Eltsova & Bushkov I could see all staying in for 2000 and being contenders for a medal. Petrova & Tikhonov would get to skate only with Elena & Anton's DQ and would only be outsiders.

Men- A Russian sweep with Kulik, Yagudin, and Plushenko. Kulik probably wins.

Dance- Anissina & Peizerat winning easily with Anjelika & Oleg out with back injury and Gritschuk & Platov retired. Silver and bronze contenders would be Lobacheva & Averbuhk, Fusar Poli & Margalio, Drobiazko & Vanagas, and maybe Bourne & Kraatz if they werent as self destructive as they were around then.

Ladies- Kwan, Slutskaya, and Butyrskaya as the main gold contenders. Slutskaya probably wins this year. Lipinski stays for 2000 of course but by now with her hip injury cant do the triple loop-triple loop and is a bit player only. Gets a bronze maybe if Butyskaya bombs badly enough. No other contenders really.

If a 1996 Olympics had existed, do you think this would've been the year professionals would've been allowed to compete? Because if that's the case, remember that was the year Midori and Josee came back to compete as amateurs. If it had been like 1994, then Katarina might have come back (but maybe not even made it out of German nationals).

Also, where do you figure Tonia Kwiatkowski would've been in this? This was the year Nicole had decided to tour with Nutcracker, instead of practice. And would Nancy and Tonya have stayed on after 1992 (would skating have been as popular in 1996 if 1994 had not happened)?

1996 is hard, since I was only a kid then. I'm not sure if Brasseur and Eisler would have stuck around for '96 though. I thought I read in one of their books that Isabelle wanted to quit after '92 or '93, and they almost didn't make it to the '94 Olympics. Didn't Kazakova and Dmitriev just get together around '96? I agree that they wouldn't have ended up with the gold, then. It would have been interesting to have Galindo as a medal contender and if Stojko dhe didn't have his groin injury yet (which I don't THINK he did at that time), he could have been the gold medalist.

For 2000, it's weird to think of Petrova and Tikhonov being outsiders 'since they were world medalists that year, but yeah, that's probably what would have happened if Kazakova and Dmitriev had stayed. Eltsova and Bushkov I thought were ready to retire much earlier than 2000 because the federation disfavoured them - I read this somewhere, but I don't remember exactly where. It's also odd to think of Lipinski not being a huge contender in either of those years, but really, her prime was short because of the injury/success at a young age. Maybe Michelle would have actually got the OGM!

Oh yeah, and in regards to Tonia K in 1996, I think she probably would have gone in as an American medalist. I'm not sure what colour, since I don't know if Nancy would have stayed on. Tonya Harding may not have even been banned, because without an Olympics in '94, the knee whack might not have occurred. I also can't say whether Michelle would have became a senior so fast, either.

blue dog said:

If a 1996 Olympics had existed, do you think this would've been the year professionals would've been allowed to compete? Because if that's the case, remember that was the year Midori and Josee came back to compete as amateurs. If it had been like 1994, then Katarina might have come back (but maybe not even made it out of German nationals).

Also, where do you figure Tonia Kwiatkowski would've been in this? This was the year Nicole had decided to tour with Nutcracker, instead of practice. And would Nancy and Tonya have stayed on after 1992 (would skating have been as popular in 1996 if 1994 had not happened)?

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That is a good question about the reinstated pros. I thought about that a bit but I am not sure really on that.

Pairs- Well Grinkov was by now dead so unfortunately no G/G for sure. Miskutienok & Dmitriev I dont think would have ever stayed together this long. She was having motivation problems by late 92 and he was able to push her to go for the 94 Olympics.

Ladies- I dont know if Witt would have returned for the Olympics this year but it would have been irrelevant to the medal race as she was in 94. Josee probably would have come back as she did anyway even without the Olympics. I dont think she would have figured in much though. She never really did figure in much to any Olympic or World event in her career, although in contention after the short a couple times.

Dance- I dont see an aging Torvill & Dean coming back for a 96 Olympics but I could be wrong. I doubt they would have thought as much of their gold chances in 96 as 94 though. I think they saw a good situation in 94 with Usova & Zhulin in the midst of a divorce crisis which was bound to hamper their skating, and Gritschuk & Platov not looking like any kind of gold threat at the time (they were a distant and barely 2nd at the 93 Worlds). Wynne & Witherby and Roca & Sur there or not obviously dont figure into the medal picture.

Men- Petrenko could come back I guess. I dont think he would have though, I was surprised he turned pro at 22 but shows he obviously had enough of amateur competition at that point and only came back I think since the Olympics were 2 years away. If he did return obviously he could be a huge threat though. And Boitano I am pretty sure would not have come back yet another 2 years older.

pangtongfan said:

1996 Olympics:

Men- Kurt Browning, Elvis Stojko, and Alexei Urmanov as the main contenders for gold. Eldredge and Kulik as the next strongest contenders and a chance of finishing as high as silver. Galindo, Candelero, and Zagorodniuk with an outside shot at the bronze.

2000 Olympics:

Men- A Russian sweep with Kulik, Yagudin, and Plushenko. Kulik probably wins.

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I think that Kulik was in great condition and could have won in 1996 Olympics, but not in 2000 (bronze medal for him, I think).

blue_idealist said:

1996 is hard, since I was only a kid then. I'm not sure if Brasseur and Eisler would have stuck around for '96 though. I thought I read in one of their books that Isabelle wanted to quit after '92 or '93, and they almost didn't make it to the '94 Olympics.

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Actually that is a good point. I remember reading that too now. Yeah you are probably right they wouldnt have stayed for 96. I was thinking they would want to redeem the dissapointments of 92 but 4 years would probably be too much. More likely they would have stayed for 1 more year to try and win Worlds (and probably still done it) then turned pro.

Didn't Kazakova and Dmitriev just get together around '96? I agree that they wouldn't have ended up with the gold, then.

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They were put together as a pair around the time of the 95 Worlds. The 95/96 season was their first. They had an erratic first season with a 4th at Skate America, 2nd at Nations Cup, 3rd at Nationals, 1st at Europeans, WD from Centennial on Ice, and 5th at Worlds after being on the way to gold (after the rest of the final flight bombed) before their program coming apart in the 2nd half.

It would have been interesting to have Galindo as a medal contender and if Stojko dhe didn't have his groin injury yet (which I don't THINK he did at that time), he could have been the gold medalist.

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Yeah Stojko was completely healthy for these Worlds. A fluke fall in the short program cost him the World title. It was billed as an Urmanov-Stojko showdown this year after Urmanov beat Stojko to win the GP final but both had off competitions.

For 2000, it's weird to think of Petrova and Tikhonov being outsiders 'since they were world medalists that year, but yeah, that's probably what would have happened if Kazakova and Dmitriev had stayed.

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Petrova & Tikhonov were 4th at the 99 Worlds behind the Polish team.

Eltsova and Bushkov I thought were ready to retire much earlier than 2000 because the federation disfavoured them - I read this somewhere, but I don't remember exactly where.

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By the 98 Olympics and Worlds they were completely out of favor with Moskinvas pairs as the federations hopes for the 98 Games and the up and comers coming up after that. Ironically they did win Nationals that year over Berezhnaya & Sikharulidze, Kazahkova & Dmitriev, and Shishkova & Naumov, even in a brilliantly skated event.

I am thinking they might have stayed for 2000 since Shishkova & Naumov would have been the Russian #1 and more likely medalists in 96 I am thinking. Then again they would have been passed by both B&S and K&D by 98 just like they were anyway so on second thought, yeah you are right it is unlikely they stay this long.

It's also odd to think of Lipinski not being a huge contender in either of those years, but really, her prime was short because of the injury/success at a young age. Maybe Michelle would have actually got the OGM!

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I dont think Michelle would have beaten Irina at the 2000 Olympics unless like the 2000 Worlds Irina had an off night like she did at Worlds and Michelle skated lights out like she did at Worlds. Irina was the one favored by the judges and establishment it seemed to win this year. And since Michelle has never skated that lights out at the Olympics I doubt it (then again neither has Irina really). Who knows though. Maybe it would have been her year.

Oh yeah, and in regards to Tonia K in 1996, I think she probably would have gone in as an American medalist. I'm not sure what colour, since I don't know if Nancy would have stayed on. Tonya Harding may not have even been banned, because without an Olympics in '94, the knee whack might not have occurred. I also can't say whether Michelle would have became a senior so fast, either.

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I am thinking Kerrigan definitely doesnt stay for 96. I read she was planning on leaving after 92 and only stayed in since the 94 Olympics were so close and Kristi was retiring.
Harding I think might stay for 96. I am thinking Bobek doesnt clown around the 95-96 season if it is an Olympic one and she sees a wide open path to being U.S #1 for the Olympics. Beyond that I think Harding, Kwiatkowski (who skated brilliantly at the 96 Nationals), and Kwan battle for the other 2 spots on the team. I think with no 94 Olympics Kwan would not have made her senior debut until Nationals 94 or 95, and no way does she come 4th at the 95 Worlds and start her run to the very top as fast as she did.

pangtongfan said:

Petrova & Tikhonov were 4th at the 99 Worlds behind the Polish team.

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Sorry, I meant the 2000 Worlds, not '99.

Another way of looking at this could be-- what if the 1994 shift happened four years earlier, and an Olympics occurred in 1990, then 1994? Would the landscape have changed? Would one more Olympics with figures have Midori on top? Or Jill? Would Kristi have been ready?

Would Kristi and Rudy have made it to the Olympics, or would the split have happened sooner? G&G could've won, I'm sure.

Dance--France or Russia?

You know, if Harding stuck around until 1996 I think the knee clubbing still would have happened. It just would have been Nicole Bobek who got the whack instead of Nancy Kerrigan (I doubt Kerrigan would have stayed in this long after her dismal showing at 1993 Worlds).

1996:

Men - 1. Todd Eldredge, 2. Ilia Kulik, 3. Elvis Stojko

Kurt Browning would have stayed to compete, and probably picked an additional World title in 1994 or 1995, but I don't think he would have lived up to Olympic pressure. I actually think Eldredge would have kept it together like he did at Worlds this year, though, because the QUAD had not yet become a necessity to win (which is what really stressed him out the most). Elvis goes for the Quad but doesn't skate perfectly and loses out to Kulik on the second mark. Rudy Galindo places 4th.

Ladies - 1. Lu Chen, 2. Nicole Bobek, 3. Oksana Baiul

Lu Chen is the clear winner. I agree that Michelle Kwan wouldn't have been as developed this year if 1994 hadn't been an Olympic year because she would have waited another year to become a Senior and so 1996 would have been more like her actual 1995. Nicole Bobek gets clubbed but comes back like Kerrigan did to deliver an inspired performance, but it's not enough to beat Chen's refined perfection. Oksana Baiul sticks around past her World Championship win in 1993 and faces consistency issues, but does well enough to claim the Bronze.

2000:

Men - 1. Ilia Kulik, 2. Alexei Yagudin, 3. Elvis Stojko

Ilia Kulik stays in competition and continues to build his artistry with Tarasova. Yagudin stays with Mishin and has technical mastery, but doesn't yet become the glorious skater he would later turn into. Elvis Stojko is struggling with consistency at this point but does well enough to claim a medal.

Women - 1. Michelle Kwan, 2. Irina Slutskaya, 3. Maria Butyrskaya

Kwan would have skated this Olympics like she did her 1998 Olympics and won. Irina was never able to perform like Tara Lipinski did at the big competitions. Tara probably would have had growth/injury issues if she stayed until 2000 and not been able to deliver the same caliber of performance. Butyrskaya gets the Bronze for being considered more artistic and complete than any of the other remaining medal contenders.

2004:

Men - 1. Alexei Yagudin, 2. Evgeni Plushenko, 3. Brian Joubert

Alexei Yagudin switches to Tarasova after 2000 and gains the same artistic growth. Evgeni Plushenko is more artistic at this point than he was in 2002, but he still would have lost to Yagudin. Brian Joubert takes the Bronze with his Quads.

Women - 1. Sasha Cohen, 2. Sarah Hughes, 3. Fumie Suguri

Michelle Kwan would have left after 2000 cry: ). Slutskaya would have had her health problems and not been a factor. Arakawa wouldn't have happened this season because Tarasova wouldn't have taken her on in the middle of an Olympic year. Cohen's 2004 Worlds performance would have been enough to claim the Gold this year. Sarah Hughes comes in 2nd because she's a hard worker and would do well, but it wouldn't be a magical performance like in 2002. Fumie Suguri claims Bronze because, without Tarasova, Arakawa wouldn't be in as good of form. I do think that Arakawa could have come in 4th, though (right ahead of Miki Ando in 5th).

Pairs - Difficult to say who would win. Totmianina/Marinin had the consistency + Russian backing + enough growth in their presentation this year to challenge for Gold. Sale/Pelltier would have stayed in to compete and been co-favorites with Shen/Zhao. I'll guess that in the end it would have been 1. Shen/Zhao, 2. Totmianina/Marinin, 3. Sale/Pelletier (Sale makes a mistake on a jump whilst the other two teams perform perfectly)

2008: (I'm assuming 6.0 scoring would still be in place here)

Men - 1. Evgeni Plushenko, 2. Stephane Lambiel, 3. Daisuke Takahashi

Plushenko obviously stays in and is dominant through the quadrennial if he didn't win in 2004. Stephane Lambiel had a very rough Worlds this season but I think if it was the Olympics he would have done better. Takahashi takes Bronze because the Quad is still highly valued and Buttle/Weir/Lysacek aren't able to incorporate it into their programs as well as him (Joubert has huge nerve problems and tanks, so he isn't a factor).

Women - 1. Mao Asada, 2. Yu-Na Kim, 3. Yukari Nakano

Very interesting here. I don't think Slutskaya stays in. She probably retires after miraculously coming back and winning Worlds in 2005. I'm thinking Mao wins because Yu-Na had not yet become the dominant skater she would turn into the next season. Yukari takes the Bronze because she has nice presentation and her 3Axel doesn't get completely trashed like it did under CoP scoring during this time. Maybe Shizuka Arakawa would have stuck around until now, though, and actually even won this Olympics.

Pairs - 1. Totmianina/Marinin, 2. Pang/Tong, 3. Savchenko/Szolkowy

Totmianina/Marinin stay in if they don't win in 2004 and their technical mastery gives them the victory. Pang/Tong would clearly be the favorites for Silver and then Savchenko/Szolkowy overtake Zhang/Zhang, who are dinged for their lack of artistry. Dube/Davison could also potentially take Bronze this season, however.

Blades of Passion said:

You know, if Harding stuck around until 1996 I think the knee clubbing still would have happened. It just would have been Nicole Bobek who got the whack instead of Nancy Kerrigan (I doubt Kerrigan would have stayed in this long after her dismal showing at 1993 Worlds).

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Now that would be funny (in as much as something like that can ever be). The bad girl of skating clubbing the other.

Pairs - 1. Totmianina/Marinin, 2. Pang/Tong, 3. Savchenko/Szolkowy

Totmianina/Marinin stay in if they don't win in 2004 and their technical mastery gives them the victory. Pang/Tong would clearly be the favorites for Silver and then Savchenko/Szolkowy overtake Zhang/Zhang, who are dinged for their lack of artistry. Dube/Davison could also potentially take Bronze this season, however.

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Wow I admit I am confused at your thinking here. Around this time the Germans were taking over as the dominant team over the Chinese pairs. The Zhangs meanwhile were clearly the #1 Chinese team politically and their scores were way higher than Pang & Tong all season (except for 4CCs were P&T won after the Zhangs skated badly). Remember P&T came only 5th at the Worlds and 3rd at the GP final this year even without Totmianina & Marinin around anymore. They were beaten by a huge margin by both Savchenko & Szolkowy and the Zhangs at the GPF, then beaten by both those teams, Dube & Davison, and Kavaguti & Smirnov at Worlds.

If it had been an Olympic year I believe Pang/Tong would have been skating like they did in 2010. Savchenko/Szolkowy wouldn't have been #1 in Europe and that would have given them less confidence as well. Plus a lot of P/T's issue was getting overly screwed by underrotation calls with the CoP system at the time.

blue_idealist said:

Sorry, I meant the 2000 Worlds, not '99.

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Petrova&Tikhonov won the World's in 2000 over Shen&Zhao and Abitbol&Bernadis.

Just to clarify, you mean if there were Olympics in 1996 and 2000 instead of 1994 and 1998, right? Also, are you assuming professionals are allowed to become reinstated in 1996 (or maybe even 1992)? The answers might make a huge difference in any projected standings.

Definitely take Kerrigan out of the scenarios if Oly's had ben 96 instead of 94. By various reports, the only reason she stuck around was because her silver at Oly's in 1992 and the next one's being just 2 years away.

This thread gave me such a surprising new way to look at things. All these years I've thought that if only we'd had the Winter Olympics in 1996, Michelle, then at her first peak, would have won the gold. But you guys have argued pretty convincingly that if there were no Olympics in 1994, Michelle might not have taken her Senior test early and might not have been as far along in her progress toward that peak in 1996, her Worlds year. So what happened, the Olympics in 1994 and 1998, was the best possible outcome for her. What a liberating idea. No more faint "if onlys" rattling around in my mind.

Michelle becoming a senior early and then losing in both 1998 and 2002 was ultimately the best possible outcome, in terms of the continued brilliance she gave the World as a result. Her legacy is far more valuable than the Gold medal we might wish she had won. It was meant to be.

Can someone explain why there were Winter Olympics in 1992 and then again in 1994? What happened to make it the shorter 2-year interval?

As I recall, they wanted to stagger the Summer and Winter Olympics. Having both Games in the same year was expensive and made both events less special. This way, every Olympics had the year all to itself. To achieve this, the IOC moved the Winter Games to the "bridge" years. There were only two ways to do that: hold the next Winter Olympics two years later, or hold the next Games six years later (from 1992 to 1998). The latter would have been grossly unfair to athletes. So they went for 1994.

I was watching old mens' performances on youtube from the 1996 worlds, and it just dawned on me how awesome the men would have been at the 1996 Olympics if some had given performances like they did at the '96 worlds (ie. the LPs from Eldredge, Galindo, and Stojko).