Methods to determine the selection of skaters to the Worlds

[Joesitz]

(See above Post of Mrs. P for eligibility for obtaining a spot on the Roster.)

Now the selection of those who meet the eligibility will be up to the Federations.

The USFS will use their results of the Nats.
The Japan Fed will use the GPs, their Nats and past performances.
I don't know how the Russian Fed, the French Fed handle it. In some cases the Canadian and Chinese.

How much does a Fed rely on the results of the Euros? I believe Czech Rep. has only 1 eligible in Senior Men, but two very top contenders to decide from?

France has 3 eligibles but 4 contenders

Russia has 2 eligibles but several contenders.

How important are the results of the Euros?

[Sylvia]

Japan named their World team after Nationals as follows:
Takahiko Kozuka, Nobunari Oda, Daisuke Takahashi;
Miki Ando, Mao Asada, Kanako Murakami;
Takahashi/Tran (pairs), Reed/Reed (dance).

Russia only has 1 Men's spot for 2011 Worlds, along with 2 Ladies, 3 Pairs and 2 Dance. They usually use Europeans results (and sometimes other considerations) to determine their World team. Volosozhar/Trankov won Russian Nationals but can't compete at Euros because Tatiana competed at the 2010 Olympics for Ukraine. V/T are expected to be named to the World team after they get the required minimum TES score at an international competition after Euros/before Worlds.

[Joesitz]

RE: Japan. With the new rules for eligibility as given by Mrs.P, three Japanese Men are eligible but one must do the Quali Round. It's also involved with who goes to 4CC.

[Mrs. P]

RE: Japan. With the new rules for eligibility as given by Mrs.P, three Japanese Men are eligible but one must do the Quali Round. It's also involved with who goes to 4CC.

Here are the World Standings as of right now:

Oda (Ranked 3rd) 3635
Takahashi (Ranked 4th) 3318
Kozuka (Ranked 8th) 2982

4CC Point spread for those fininshing 1-10)
840
756
680
612
551
496
402
362
325

So as long as Takahashi (who is 317 points behind Oda) finishes in the top 10 (worth 325), he will have enough points to overtake Oda in the standings.

Kozuka has it harder despite being Japan's No. 1. He is 653 points behind Oda, so he has to basically finish in the top 3. But given what is expected to be a weaker field, he will probably do that with ease. But ice is slippery and just a fourth place finish would send him to the qualifying round...

[ImaginaryPogue]

The importance of Euros ranges. You see some countries (Italy, Russia) using it to justify sending teams. Last year, Voronov was 2nd at Nationals and had won a GP medal, but finished behind Borodulin at Euros and was left off the Olympics team (he made worlds when Plushenko opted out; of course, we know what happened then). Marchei won the Italian Nationals, but Kostner won Euros (and obviously had the stronger competitive history).

The Czech Republic has two spots thanks to Brezina's 4th place finish last season at worlds, so both Verner and he will be going to Worlds/Euros.

Canada goes with Nationals+ (so if you don't compete at Nationals but have the competitive record to back it up - see Stoijko in 2000, I think - you might get sent).

France seems to take a more holistic POV. Pechelat/Bourzat and Delobel/Schoenfelder skipped Nationals alltogether, but were both sent to the Olympics. Joubert also skipped his nationals two seasons in a row, but remained the top French skater internationally.

[SerpentineSteps]

Here are the World Standings as of right now:

Oda (Ranked 3rd) 3635
Takahashi (Ranked 4th) 3318
Kozuka (Ranked 8th) 2982

4CC Point spread for those fininshing 1-10)
840
756
680
612
551
496
402
362
325

So as long as Takahashi (who is 317 points behind Oda) finishes in the top 10 (worth 325), he will have enough points to overtake Oda in the standings.

Kozuka has it harder despite being Japan's No. 1. He is 653 points behind Oda, so he has to basically finish in the top 3. But given what is expected to be a weaker field, he will probably do that with ease. But ice is slippery and just a fourth place finish would send him to the qualifying round...

Hehe, maybe the JSF chose not to send Oda to 4CC to make sure that he has to pay for his bombing last year?

[Mrs. P]

Hehe, maybe the JSF chose not to send Oda to 4CC to make sure that he has to pay for his bombing last year?

That's totally the theory and its understandable. It's the only obviously reason for a weird arrangement -- they send Daisuke over Oda when Oda placed higher than him. And then not only that, put the person who was two places behind Oda for that third spot. (I also think it's also to give Hanyu some additional experience.)

[Mrs. P]

Everyone, please go to this link:
http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/sho...l=1#post540163

My previous calculations were incorrect. This post shows the real result. Summary. Oda is off hte hook and Kozuka is still likely to go to QR even if he wins 4CC.

[SerpentineSteps]

Everyone, please go to this link:
http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/sho...l=1#post540163

My previous calculations were incorrect. This post shows the real result. Summary. Oda is off hte hook and Kozuka is still likely to go to QR even if he wins 4CC.

That is an absolute travesty. With many things ISU/IJS, it's a great idea in theory, but given how numbers are awarded, the outcomes turn out ridiculous.

[Joesitz]

Everyone, please go to this link:
http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/sho...l=1#post540163

My previous calculations were incorrect. This post shows the real result. Summary. Oda is off hte hook and Kozuka is still likely to go to QR even if he wins 4CC.

Has it been officially announced that Kozuka goes to the QR?

[mskater93]

Has it been officially announced that Kozuka goes to the QR?

No, because until the draw, there is a potential that Oda, Kozu, or Taka could withdraw which would change who goes to the QR. A lot can happen between now and Worlds (injuries, illness...) that could change which is why Feds always annouce Alternates