Which Skater will go to the Qualis for Japan?

Mrs. P · Jan 6, 2011

genki said:
I read somewhere in Japanese figure skating news, that Dai may have to skate in Preliminary round. Not fair. He has injury to attend to, you know.
But Dai said, " It is good thing,because I can take Preliminary as a practice." Come on, Dai. Your character is just too good. In Japan, it will be praised, but in US, you will be a door mat!!

As of right now that is not possible as Kozuka has 336 less points and is currently Japan's lowest ranked skater among the Worlds entries. The only way Daisuke will end up skating in preliminaries is if he drops to 11th place or lower at 4CC (and can't overtake Oda's WS score) and Kozuka finishes in the top 3. While it's totally possible for Kozuka to skate to the top 3, I can't imagine Daisuke doing so badly he end up 11th in a weak 4CC field, especially with the PCS he gets these days.

And what the US have to do with Daisuke skating in the qualifying round?

sorcerer · Jan 6, 2011

So we'll have another good reason to watch the Japanese men at 4CC.

Joesitz (RIP) · Jan 6, 2011

Mathman said:
Yes, I was a little bit confused about how the new rules applies to Oda, too.

First, the Japanese World and Four Continents teams have already been named so there is no speculation there. Kozika, Oda and Takahashi will go to Worlds and Kozuka, Takahashi and Nanri will go to Four Continents.

For the ladies, Ando, Asada and Murakawa have been assigned to Worlds. Ando, Asada and Suzuki have been assigned to Four Continents.

The "Quali's" is not a separate event. It is just a preliminary round prior to the short program at Worlds. (The ISU has never had a separate qualifying event to fill extra spots for Worlds, like they do for the Olympics.)

Biut the question is, since Oda finished lower than 18th at last years worlds, does he have to skate in the preliminary round or does he go straight through to the short program on the basis of Japan qualifying three men?

I think Oda does have to skate in the preliminary round. Is this right?

We have to start thinking about what power the Feds have, and not get hung up on skating personalities. One of the three has to do the preliminary round because the 3 of them at last years Worlds did not ADD UP TO 18. That is the new system.
although Oda caused the automatic loss of 3, he has shown that his skating superiority this season is greater than Dai or Takahito.

It's up to Japan to decide who goes to preliminaries. Is that 4CC set up in stone? BTW, where will the preliminaries be held?

Joesitz (RIP) · Jan 6, 2011

Mathman said:
I don't think that's quite right. I think that the rules specify which one of the three it must be and that it is not up to the Federation to choose.

Are you sure of that? In any event, whoever goes to the qualis will not have big competition to worry about.

The way I understand the new rules it goes like this.

1. Takahashi's and Kozuka's placements at 2010 Worlds together added up to thirteen or less, so Japan qualifisd three men for 2011 worlds. Oda's placement is irrelevant.

2. Japan can send any three men they want to to 2011 Worlds. It does not have to be the ones who earned the spots. After Japanese Nationals, the Japanese federation chose to send Kozuka, Oda and Takahashi.

3. Since the third Japanese skater (Oda) did not place in the top 18 at 2010 Worlds, only two of Japan's three men are exempt from skating in the qualifying round in 2011.

4. The skater who must skate in the qualifying round is the one who is lowest-ranked in the ISU worlds ranking list. That's Kozuka.

All the above was given by Mrs.P in her original post and no one picked up on it till now. The question she asked was if it will be Nobi? since the 4CC already has Dai and Takahito. (Seems like it was planned by the Fed.)

Joesitz (RIP) · Jan 6, 2011

aftertherain said:
So wait. They took out qualifying and then brought it back in but it's different?

The Original Qualification Round was to eliminate the excess contestants over 30 in number. That no longer exists. This new one, is actually to fill the vacant slots after all the automatic skaters are placed on the roster. I think it is a good method, but there are no medals involved. The interesting thing this year, is the 3 from Japan; one must go to qualify for the Worlds' roster.

Mathman · Jan 6, 2011

Joesitz said:
It's up to Japan to decide who goes to preliminaries.

No, I don't think so. As Mrs. P explains in post 20 above, it is not up to the Japanese Federation, it is up to the ISU ranking system.

Is that 4CC set up in stone?

Yes. The Japanese Four Continents team was publicly announced shortly after Japanese Nationals.

BTW, where will the preliminaries be held?

Tokyo. It is part of the world championships, not a separate event.

By the way, to save money on judges, the judging panel for men in the qualifying round will consist of five of the judges scheduled for the men's competition, plus four of the pairs judges. (Maybe there is no qualifying round for pairs due to smaller number of entries?)

Selina11 · Jan 6, 2011

Mathman said:
Maybe there is no qualifying round for pairs due to smaller number of entries?

I think there will be a qualifying round for pairs at worlds but not at Europeans. The minimum number of pairs must be over 21 for a qualifying round.

Bluebonnet · Jan 6, 2011

Thank so much for Joe starting this thread and thanks Mrs.P!

Mrs. P · Jan 6, 2011

See my response in Joesitz's thread regarding the separation of getting entries to Worlds and which of those entries have to do a qualifying round:
http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/sh...em-of-allowing-3-skaters-to-go-to-Worlds-2012

I do see Joesitz's point -- while World Ranking determines who goes to qualifying round, the federation can easily play with the WR system to make sure their top skaters don't have to skate it. In Japan's case, they clearly did not send Oda to 4CC (despite being the Japanese silver medalist) to allow Kozuka and Takahashi to catch up in the WS points. Though one could argue that it was Dai and Kozuka who earned Japan the three spots and Oda who bombed, so perhaps this decision is just.

But I think Oda overall has done well for Japan --winning both his GPs in 2009, getting silvers in both in 2010 and getting silvers int the last two GPF finals. The WC bomb was his only major error (I believe the talk is that he just found out his girlfriend was pregnant, hence creating a bit of emotional stress because I think he didn't tell anyone he was dating someone.

So I guess yeah, the federation can have a little flexiblity and play with the WS to their liking depending on who they want to give the direct entries to.

Mathman · Jan 6, 2011

Bluebonnet said:
It's necessary. But is there any way to raise up the number of contestants?

I think the ISU is trying to lower the number of contestants. to save money. It is getting to the point where it is so expensive to put on a world championship that many countries are not able to undertake it. I believe I read somewhere that skaters who don't make the short program are expected to go home immediately, and the ISU will not contribute to their board and room after breakfast of the day after the qualifying round. (Someone can correct me if I am remembering this wrong -- I hope I am.) Likewise they cut down on the mnumberof judges a couple of years ago to save money.

Or give the larger figure skating countries more seats, like house representatives?

Well, there are a bunch of ideas along that line floating about. Here is the suggestion of Mrs. P for how it might go. (This is the thread that started this disacussion here.)

http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/showthread.php?33438-Alternative-ways-to-determine-Worlds-roster

One idea would be to give an automatic berth at Worlds to the Grand Prix, Four Continents and European champions, outside the national allotments.

I assume that there is a lot of ISU politics underlying these discussions, with the small federations banding together to protect their interests against the big guys.

Bluebonnet · Jan 6, 2011

Sorry and thanks, Math! I deleted my that part of the original post because I felt stupid to ask those questions and decided to shut up and just read. :biggrin:

GS generates posts and threads so fast. It's hard, at least for me, to keep up. Love it!

Mathman · Jan 6, 2011

Mrs. P said:
I do see Joesitz's point -- while World Ranking determines who goes to qualifying round, the federation can easily play with the WR system to make sure their top skaters don't have to skate it. In Japan's case, they clearly did not send Oda to 4CC (despite being the Japanese silver medalist) to allow Kozuka and Takahashi to catch up in the WS points.

In Japan's case it is hard to see what the federation would stand to gain by manipulating the system in favor of or against any of their top three guys.

Mrs. P · Jan 6, 2011

Mathman said:
In Japan's case it is hard to see what the federation would stand to gain by manipulating the system in favor of or against any of their top three guys.

I think it's more of a psychological thing and less of something the federation would gain internationally.

The fact is that Kozuka has been deemed Japan's No. 1 for this year, winning both his GPs, gaining bronze at GPF and winning Nationals.

Daisuke is the reigning world champion, reining Olympic bronze medalist.

Oda actually has beaten both in the last two years. Oda was the only one to medal from Japan at last year's GPF. He beat Kozuka at the Olympics and this year's GPF. He beat Daisuke at GPF and Nationals. But Oda bombed at when it counted most (to the federation, I presume) first at Olympics (with that unfortunate skate incident -- even though he beat Kozuka there) and then at Worlds a few weeks later by not qualifying for the short program.

I think the federation does not want to put extra pressure on their perceived top 2 skaters (though, again, Oda finished second at Nationals, not Daisuke) and also to punish Oda for bombing last year.

In any case I think that any of the three skaters don't have much to worry about. The qualification round is a weak field, so I think whoever skates it will get on the roster easily.

herios · Jan 6, 2011

Mrs. P said:
In any case I think that any of the three skaters don't have much to worry about. The qualification round is a weak field, so I think whoever skates it will get on the roster easily.

That is exactly it. What is the big fuss all about ? The Qualy round should be a walk through the park, like a watched practice session for any of the 3 of them.
That guy, whoever will be should rather benefit of a full runthrough of his LP, getting familiar with the rink and atmosphere. It is not like he will run the marathon one day prior to his competition.

Mrs. P · Jan 6, 2011

herios said:
That is exactly it. What is the big fuss all about ? The Qualy round should be a walk through the park, like a watched practice session for any of the 3 of them.
That guy, whoever will be should rather benefit of a full runthrough of his LP, getting familiar with the rink and atmosphere. It is not like he will run the marathon one day prior to his competition.

It could be an issue of stammia. Unlike a practice session, there is the expectation to preform, even if it would require little effort. For someone like Daisuke, who has an injury, it could cost him later in the competition, especially if hte Qualifying round is only a day before the SP.

But yes, I totally see your point.

herios · Jan 6, 2011

Mrs. P said:
It could be an issue of stammia. Unlike a practice session, there is the expectation to preform, even if it would require little effort. For someone like Daisuke, who has an injury, it could cost him later in the competition, especially if hte Qualifying round is only a day before the SP.

But yes, I totally see your point.

If there are not injured, stamina should not be an issue. These are trained athletes who we are talking about, a 4 1/2 minute workout should be something they are used to on a daily basis. People are talking about them like they have just come out of a quarantine after a pneumonia.

Violet Bliss · Jan 6, 2011

I too see and the stamina issue as well as the mental aspect. A skater pointlessly "competing" in the QR could easily feel some frustration and concern for the energy expended.

From Skate Canada's site:

Final Competition Result
In Singles and Pairs figure skating, scores from the two segments, the short program and the free skate, are added together to give the total Competition Score. In the event that a qualifying round is skated, 25% of the score awarded to the qualifying freeskate is added to the total score for the athlete. In Ice Dance, scores from the three segments, the compulsory dances, the original dance and the free dance, are added together to give the total Competition Score. At the end of the event the skater or team with the highest Competition Score wins the event.

More information on the new judging system can be found on the ISU Web site

So it seems there's some compensation for going through the QR which could be a huge advantage for a contender if properly leveraged. However, I haven't been able to find the corresponding policy on the ISU site, though Skate Canada's scoring is adopted from the IJS by ISU.

Would somebody shed some light on this?

Mrs. P · Jan 6, 2011

herios said:
If there are not injured, stamina should not be an issue. These are trained athletes who we are talking about, a 4 1/2 minute workout should be something they are used to on a daily basis. People are talking about them like they have just come out of a quarantine after a pneumonia.

Sure, but I think it's different to do your FS competitively twice in just a number of days vs. doing a FS runthrough in your practice clothes.

I agree with SkateFiguring that its also a mental thing. It's kind of like Alissa having to do sectionals to qualify for Nationals despite winning Skate Canada a few weeks earlier. Yeah she won easily, but she made a ton of mistakes, so it's clear the mental aspect got to her.

Ironically her subsequent skates at TEB and GPF were much better, which goes to show that what you think is a cakewalk isn't always so.

Mathman · Jan 6, 2011

SkateFiguring said:
Final Competition Result

In Singles and Pairs figure skating, scores from the two segments, the short program and the free skate, are added together to give the total Competition Score. In the event that a qualifying round is skated, 25% of the score awarded to the qualifying freeskate is added to the total score for the athlete.

If you think about it, this can't possibly be right as applied to the new rules for worlds.

I think this document (copyright 2004) is about previous years and refers generically to competitions in which all skaters must skate a qualifying round.

Violet Bliss · Jan 6, 2011

A practice run through is a cakewalk but a competition is a catwalk. It's still a job requiring nerves, preparation, and meticulousness even when it's not on a Houte Couture runway, or the official World Championship competition. Everything is different and becomes extremely difficult when being watched with scrutinizing and judging eyes. Something as easy as walking can be the hardest thing to do in a beauty contest (men or women) for a title or a date.

I still haven't found any validation of any transfer of scores from the QR to the final. If so, it would be one of those unintended consequences when no one thought a potential medalist might ever have to go through qualifying.

eta Mathman you're probably right that Skate Canada's info is outdated.

Which Skater will go to the Qualis for Japan?

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!

sorcerer

Joesitz (RIP)

Joesitz (RIP)

Joesitz (RIP)

Mathman

Selina11

Bluebonnet

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!

Mathman

Bluebonnet

Mathman

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!

herios

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!

herios

Violet Bliss

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!

Mathman

Violet Bliss

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