Which Skater will go to the Qualis for Japan?

Oscilla · Jan 7, 2011

Mrs. P said:
But I think Oda overall has done well for Japan --winning both his GPs in 2009, getting silvers in both in 2010 and getting silvers int the last two GPF finals. The WC bomb was his only major error (I believe the talk is that he just found out his girlfriend was pregnant, hence creating a bit of emotional stress because I think he didn't tell anyone he was dating someone.

That's not quite right. Nobunari was dating his girlfriend since 2005 and was very open about it. In 2006 there was a program where he, together with a news anchor, visited a jewelry shop to chose a set of rings for himself and his girlfriend to celebrate their one year anniversary. In another, when asked about his future plans he said that after the Olympics he would like to buy a house, get married, have 5 children and a huge dog.

In an interview recently Morozov mentioned that Nobunari learned about his girlfriend pregnancy shortly before Olympics, which made him a bit scatterbrained. Afterwards he was so annoyed at himself for the shoelace incident and not doing his best that he was determined to make up for it at Worlds. In result, he overtrained himself; and that, combined with the high pressure he put on himself, made him implode at Worlds.

dwiggin3 · Jan 7, 2011

I always find it interesting to see how federations, fans and pundits react when the previous years champion/high scorer/skater to helped secure 3 spots for Worlds/Olympics preform poorly the year immediately after. In some cases, we see federations/fans/pundits try and give them the benifit of the doubt becasue of thier accomplishments but in other instances, they seem to crucify the skater for not living up to expectations. Interesting.

dwiggin3 · Jan 7, 2011

I'm a bit confused and clearly behind on things. I though the Qualifying round had been done away with at Worlds. I guess I'm really out of it. having said that, if the above post is indeed correct and that 25% of the Qual. round score is counted towards the total combined score of the SP and LP, then it seems that there is the potential for HUGE bonus for those who go through Qualif. and who score well in the SP and LP. I could very well see it making a significant impact on the top 10 and most certainly, the top 15. It almost seems like a benifit to skate the Qual. Then again, perhaps the thought is that those who must skate in the Qual. are week enough skaters that even great skates in the SP and LP plus the 25% bump from the Qualf. would not make much difference....

Am I wrong or have I missed something?

Layfan · Jan 7, 2011

I've read through these posts and I'm so confused.... a skater's peformance in this new version of a the qualifying round would count toward this score? This doesn't sound right to me.

Is it just me or this new rule stupid? I just can't get my head around that Kozuka might have to do an extra competition because of what Oda did last year. Or maybe it's just that Japanese results were so wonky last year and normally top skating nations wouldn't be affected?

Mrs. P · Jan 7, 2011

Oscilla said:
That's not quite right. Nobunari was dating his girlfriend since 2005 and was very open about it. In 2006 there was a program where he, together with a news anchor, visited a jewelry shop to chose a set of rings for himself and his girlfriend to celebrate their one year anniversary. In another, when asked about his future plans he said that after the Olympics he would like to buy a house, get married, have 5 children and a huge dog.

In an interview recently Morozov mentioned that Nobunari learned about his girlfriend pregnancy shortly before Olympics, which made him a bit scatterbrained. Afterwards he was so annoyed at himself for the shoelace incident and not doing his best that he was determined to make up for it at Worlds. In result, he overtrained himself; and that, combined with the high pressure he put on himself, made him implode at Worlds.

Thanks for the clarification. I only heard parts of the story -- nice to get the full version. :thumbsup:

Mrs. P · Jan 7, 2011

As seniorita posted earlier, none of of the qualifying score will apply to the final score. The confusion came because of a Skate Canada document posted on the thread. It's likely that was in reference to when there was a qualifying round before.

Violet Bliss · Jan 7, 2011

I posted what I found on Skate Canada site about adding 25% of QR marks to LP's but couldn't find any corresponding info by ISU. I then agreed with Mathman that since the SC piece was copyrighted in 2004 it was most likely outdated.

As for Oda's Olympic and subsequent WC meltdown, it was Morozov who revealed in an interview what happenned. I had posted the translated interview on a skating thread of a non-skating forum so I'll post the Oda related part here:

Despite parting with Oda we sill have great relationship. The hardest thing when working with the Japanese skaters is to make them trust you. In Vancouver Nobu came to me the day before the Olympics and was almost in tears when he told me his girlfriend called and said she was pregnant. Of course, I told him that it's great news and he should be happy rather than in tears. He was numb, was unable to think of anything else. Because, apparently, his mother had no idea about the future child nor his girlfriend and he had to find a way to bring the news to her. So Nobunari was trying to come up with a way to tell he and not offend her. Because the child-parent relationship in Japan is a complicated and a very different matter.
As a result of all those things Oda completely forgot that he has to train and set his mind on fighting. After the failure he was trying to prove the whole world that it was a one time thing. With such thoughts he came to the Worlds in Turin and lost again.

Yes, Oda had expressed his looking forward to marriage a few years before the pregnancy and marriage. I think he's happy these days.

The whole Morozov interview is very interesting but I don't know if it was discussed here before. If there is interest, I may post it on a new thread as it would be OT here.

eta: Nobu's Mom was with him at the GPF. It seems there's a very happy ending to Oda's ordeal. She's likely thrilled with the grandchild!

seniorita · Jan 7, 2011

I know it is selfish but thje positive side is that I will watch Kozuka three times :biggrin:

(same would apple for Dai)
By the way i havent looked yet what program they compete with in Q round, their current free or an old long program ?

Violet Bliss · Jan 7, 2011

seniorita said:
I know it is selfish but thje positive side is that I will watch Kozuka three times (same would apple for Dai)
By the way i havent looked yet what program they compete with in Q round, their current free or an old long program ?

They will perform just the LP.

Mathman · Jan 7, 2011

About the old rules for the qualifying round, there were two qualifying groups, A and B, that were ranked with separate ordinals. All skaters (singles) had to skate in the qualifying round. As SkateFiguring reported, these ordinals were factored in at a weight of 25%. With a weight of 50% for the short program and 100% for the long, this meant that 1/7 of the final placement was determined by the qualifying round, 2/7 by the short program, and 4/7 by the long program.

This made a difference. For instance, in 2005 Michelle Kwan beat Carolina Kostner in both the short program and the long program, but finished off the podium (ending her string of nine straight worlds podia) because of a disastrous qualifying round (fifth in her group).

The reason the ISU decided (some years before) to count the qualifying round is because they didn't want the top skaters just to mail in their performance, knowing that they would at least qualify no matter how badly they skated).

However, the two separate groups thing caused a problem. Sometimes the groups were of unequal strength. In 2003 Sasha Cohen lost the bronze medal to Fumie Suguri because Fumie was first in her qualifying group without much competition, whereas Sasha, skating in the other group, was third behind the eventual first and second place finishers, Kwan and Sokolova. (The reason the seeding worked out that way was because the 2002 champion, Slutskaya, did not compete in 2003.)

2006 was the last year that the qualifying round was held, until they brought in back in its new form this year.

Mathman · Jan 7, 2011

herios said:
I was just checking out the direct entries in ice dance for the euros, and a totally unheralded team from Israel, I have never heard of Frieling/Rumi is directly qualified, based on the Zaretky's last year result...How fair is this?

This actually makes perfect sense (that is, perfect ISU sense).

Zaretsky and Zaretsky did not qualify for anything at last year's worlds. Israel did.

What Israel earned at 2010 worlds is the right to send a team straight though to the short dance.

That's what they did. :yes:

herios · Jan 7, 2011

Mathman said:
This actually makes perfect sense (that is, perfect ISU sense).

Zaretsky and Zaretsky did not qualify for anything at last year's worlds. Israel did.

What Israel earned at 2010 worlds is the right to send a team straight though to the short dance.

That's what they did. :yes:

Mathman, you are confused. It is the Euro and not the world qualification I was talking about. Yes, the Zaretkys obtained a direct entry for Israel, i understand that. And it makes sense. What doesn't make sense is that Kozuka is punished, because Oda bombed last year. What could've done more than win his nationals? Poor Taka, he should've knocked out Nobu and not Dai in that practice session...:scowl:

Joesitz (RIP) · Jan 7, 2011

Somewhere in these pages of guessing, I read that Japan has announced the skater to go to the 'new'qualis, that being Takahiko Kozuka.

Please someone confirm this.

Mathman · Jan 7, 2011

herios said:
Mathman, you are confused. It is the Euro and not the world qualification I was talking about.

Same as Worlds, isn't that right? Zaretsky and Zaretsky finished in the top ten, qualifying two teams from Israel for next year. The number one team, whoever it might be, does not have to qualify. (They probably will not send a number two team.)

Yes, the Zaretkys obtained a direct entry for Israel, i understand that. And it makes sense. What doesn't make sense is that Kozuka is punished, because Oda bombed last year.

From the ISU's point of view, it is the same principle. Oda did not bomb at worlds, the number three skater for Japan bombed at worlds. Kozuka is not being punished, the number three Japanese skater is being punished.

All of this makes sense if we remember that people are not people. They are interchangeable pegs to be moved about the game board.

As stupid as this sounds, it really couldn't be any other way, because a country might send a completely different team of skaters from one year to the next.

Mathman · Jan 7, 2011

Joesitz said:
Somewhere in these pages of guessing, I read that Japan has announced the skater to go to the 'new'qualis, that being Takahiko Kozuka.

Please someone confirm this.

I will regret answering this. Answering questions on this board just brings wrath and condemnation down on the responder's head. :laugh:

Anyway...

Japan cannot announce anything about who skates in the qualifyng round. The Japanese Federation does not "send" anyone to the qualifying round, or "decide" who should skate the qualifying round.

The Japanese team is (this has already been announced) Kozuka, Oda, and Takahashi.

Which of these three will the ISU require to compete in the qualifying round? It is cut and dried. No one makes a "decision" about it.

Of the three skaters, the one that is lowest ranked in the ISU worlds rankings list will be required, by ISU rules, to skate the qualifying round.

Right now the lowest ranked of the three is Kozuka. There is still Four Continents to come, which has the possibility of changing the World rankings before worlds. However, analysis by knowledgable posters on these threads has computed that Kozuka cannot catch up to Oda in the standings even if he wins Four Continents. So it will be Kozuka, unless Takahashi completely bombs Four Continents and ends up lower than Kozuka overall. (Very unlikely.)

Joesitz said:
...these pages of guessing...

There is no guessing going on. This is just the way it works out under this new system.

dorispulaski · Jan 7, 2011

But it again makes it clear the importance of having your skater skate Senior B's, since it enhances his/her/their ISU ranking.

What I really don't like about this is that Taka enters the SP already tired from skating a quali LP first.
But rulez iz rulez.

Mathman · Jan 7, 2011

dorispulaski said:
But it again makes it clear the importance of having your skater skate Senior B's, since it enhances his/her/their ISU ranking.

But in this instance, only vis-a-vis the skater's own countrymen. Kozuka could have gotten ahead of Takahashi (forcing Takahashi to skate the qualifying round) by skating at a B event in Europe

What I really don't like about this is that Taka enters the SP already tired from skating a quali LP first.

In this he is no worse off than all the other skaters who must skate the qualifying round.

In fact, he is better off, because he can coast in the qualifying round while the other competitors must deliver the skates of their lives.

seniorita · Jan 7, 2011

This is not punishment of Kozuka, it could have been any skater including Oda, someone has to skate the Q round since they didnt end up in top 18, Oda probably has done enough the last 3 seasons to have this high ranking apart from bombing worlds, and ISU takes account more than one championship and more than one season so on the same account Kozuka national championship is not enough! I dont get how it gets personal on Oda, it could have been anyone and he is not the first to bomb a competition.

Mathman said:
Right now the lowest ranked of the three is Kozuka. There is still Four Continents to come, which has the possibility of changing the World rankings before worlds. However, analysis by knowledgable posters on these threads has computed that Kozuka cannot catch up to Oda in the standings even if he wins Four Continents. So it will be Kozuka, unless Takahashi completely bombs Four Continents and ends up lower than Kozuka overall. (Very unlikely.)

.

it is rather frustrating :laugh:

that I said the same and nobody got it and people kept saying it is guessing while it is simple summing and substract points, and you say it in five lines and makes sense. But I dont give up!

Kozuka actually cannot pass neither Oda nor Daisuke, even if Dai bombs completely and Kozu wins, stil Dai passes him in ranking:

For now Kozu has 2982 points and Dai 3318 points.
Kozuka uses for his points Gp/ Gpf and two ISU championship scores, 574 and 496.
Dai uses only one championship score, 1200 points from Worlds 2010, so he has the right to add one more.(4cc)
Even if Kozu wins 4CC and gets 840 points, he will have to drop the lowest score (496) as he can use only two Isu Championships points, so his total would be 2982-496+840=3326 , which basically means that Dai needs 9 points to pass him, so I dont know how you earn 9 points but I guess he just has to show up and sit down on the ice and still will have highest ranking than Kozu.

Violet Bliss · Jan 7, 2011

dorispulaski said:
What I really don't like about this is that Taka enters the SP already tired from skating a quali LP first.
But rulez iz rulez.

You are not a competitor (in WC). Taka is. He has to know how to mentally prepare himself for such event as it happens. Contrary to Genki's feeling that Daisuke's attitude of taking the QR as a practice will likely contribute to him being taken as a door mat, it's actually a very smart and positive approach if he had to do the QR. By taking the QR as an advanatage, it can become an advantage. So can the opposite attitude and result. A contending skater's state of mind makes the difference of the effect and outcome.

What doesn't make sense is that Kozuka is punished, because Oda bombed last year.

There are no concepts of "punish" and "bomb" with ISU, nor individuals such as "Oda" and "Kozuka". There is no bombing, just a skater scoring what he scores, regardless of results expected of him and no one is punished, just the number of skaters in a federation and how they qualify to enter the ISU WC competition being determined. The skaters' names are irrelevent, only the ranking and other qualifying conditions of the competitors sent by the federation. So sometimes weird situation happens, but it's not about punishing the right person who bombed and caused the qualifying conditions the federation has to abide by.

What could've done more than win his nationals?

That's not part of the conditions or determining factors of ISU WC entry.

SubRosa · Jan 7, 2011

Okay, do I understand this correctly?

Oda: 638 + 447 + 720 + 720 + 360 + 400 + 175 + 175 = 3635

Takahashi (before 4CC): 1200 + 583 + 525 + 400 + 360 + 250 = 3318

Kozuka (before 4CC): 574 + 496 + 648 + 504 + 400 + 280 = 2902

But the World Standings chart shows Kozuka as having 2982. Where am I missing the extra 80 points?

(And how does the 70% of the season-before-last thing work?)

Which Skater will go to the Qualis for Japan?

Oscilla

dwiggin3

dwiggin3

Layfan

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!

Violet Bliss

seniorita

Violet Bliss

Mathman

Mathman

herios

Joesitz (RIP)

Mathman

Mathman

dorispulaski

Wicked Yankee Girl

Mathman

seniorita

Violet Bliss

SubRosa

I love Lussi

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