Wicked Yankee Girl
Any predictions for Europeans?
Do you think I&K will rank ahead of R&T in dance? Can F&S and the Kerrs regain the ground they lost to P&B after their injuries in the fall season? Will anyone trip over their costume during the Golden Waltz?
Can anyone come close to S&S in pairs?
Will the Russian ladies win all 3 medals? Will Kostner win, even though she is leaving out both the flip and the lutz?
Which Verner will show up to Europeans? Which Joubert? And who will win?
What are your thoughts?
Savchenko/Szolkowy are the overwhelming favourites
Main contenders for them:
The 2nd german team Hausch/Wende had a good season and should do well here.
Florent Amodio for me has the slight edge here to take his first title.
Main contenders for him:
Kevin Van Der Perren
Dark horses are Artur Gachinski, Konstantin Menshov, Peter Liebers, Michel Brezina
Pechalat/Bourzat are clear favourites, just need to stand up and do all their levels:
I should imagine the above 5 be in the final group and I can see Bobrova/Soloviev clinching that bronze behind P/B and F/S, Kerr's again just missing out. The other 2 russian teams relatively unknown but should feature in top 10.
Carolina Kostner is favourite and if she has planned to leave out the flip and lutz might well go in her favour as the rest of her skills and PCS are very good indeed.
Dark horses, Sonia Lafuente has had a good season, Valentina Marchei and Viktoria Helgesson. There is no 3rd Russian here due to Gozeva's lowly placed finish last year. But I can forsee a russian medal here the first since 2006. We shall see.
1). After Russian Nationals, it's clear that R&T are more mature and prepared so I believe that I&K will remain the 3rd couple. But it's not a given, anything cand happen! I actually believe that R&T can place higher than B/S( B&S always have problems with their twizzles).
Originally Posted by dorispulaski
2) Yes. S&S are the clear favourites, but their last competition(german nationals) they had 2 deductions in the long(clean short): one fall on the side by side 3S and (probably) one fall on the second 3T( from the 3T-3T Sequence). Their rate of succes on the side by side 3S is quite low. If they make the same mistakes at euros and K&S are clean, K&S will win. But if they replicate any of their performances from the GP series in the long program, they win.
3) Since neither Adelina or Liza can compete, I strongly believe Russia will be lucky to get at least one girl on the podium( If Alena can duplicate the performance from nationals, she can win thanks to her strong technical content. But she is quite inconsistent). Carolina is the one to beat though. She always has good performances at Euros
4) I hope Verner's evil twin remains in Canada! The same thing I hope for Joubert! I believe Joubert will be more prepared and thanks to his experience, he will outskate his younger opponents. I believe he will take the title, with Verner a close second(I have this feeling that Verner will miss one of his 3A in the long and he will make his 4T attempt a 3T). But my dream podium is: 1. Tomas, 2. Brian, 3. Javier
I believe the ice dance event will be the most exciting since we have no clue if F/S and K/K are prepared; the younger russian couples are hungry so they better be ready. It's safe to say P/B will most likely take the title.
Pairs- Savchenko & Szolkowy to win easily. For starters they would have to make alot more mistakes than Kavaguti & Smirnov to lose to them. Both teams skating cleanly or the same equivalent of clean the Germans win easily. And I think it is laughable to even imagine the notoriously inconsistent Russians as more likely to skate cleanly than Aliona & Robin. Not to mention Kavaguti & Smirnov are not even the #1 Russians anymore, and while the #1 Russians arent here, I doubt the Russian fed. would even want to push for their #2 team to win here so they wont alot of political push or help either. All that said Kavaguti & Smirnov to win silver. Bronze to one of the other Russian teams with the victor getting a trip to Worlds.
Men- Pretty wide open this year. Verner could win if he has a competition like he has in Russia but even skating like that he is very beatable as evidenced by a 7 fall equivalent Chan nearly beating him. Joubert of course could win but I suspect he is just as likely to be off the podium as he is to win this year. Amodio is a big threat and I wouldnt be surprised if he finishes above Joubert again or even wins possibly. Fernandez is a threat of course. Contesti and Van Der Perren sometimes surprise at Europeans. Really wide open this year.
Dance- Pechelat & Bourzat to win their first European title easily. Silver and bronze up in the air. If Faiella & Scali are back in form they win silver probably. If not Bobrova & Soloviev most likely. Kerrs are not out of the picture yet if they have recovered. Outside shots for teams like Hoffmann & Zazovin or the other Russians.
Ladies- Kostner as the favorite. She is scoring well even with mistakes and novice like jump content as long as she mostly stays upright. However if Korpi has a good competition she will probably beat the current version of Kostner, you just never know with Korpi. If Leonova has a competition like Russian Nationals and others splat she could podium or even win. If Markova has a good competition and Kostner and Korpi splat the same holds true for her. Weak field with Lepisto out, not even many dark horses.
"And I think it is laughable to even imagine the notoriously inconsistent Russians as more likely to skate cleanly than Aliona & Robin."
K&S skated a clean long program at Cup of Russia.(I believe they didn't get credit for a lift though. And because of their injury their program wasn't quite refined but the jumps were landed, so it's not impossible for them to be clean at Euros). Plus, remember last year: they scored almost 140 on their LP at euros. Yes, they are not Russia nr 1 now, and that may be key, I agree. But Aliona and Robin are not known as consistent skaters. They messed some elements at German nationals, like I've said. All I'm saying is that they need to skate at least decent to take gold.(I'm trying to be objective here. K&S beat them in the past, they came close to do it at last year's worlds with 2 falls. For the record, I want Aliona and Robin to win, and they probably will. But it's not a given. Anything can happen)
Originally Posted by pangtongfan
First of all PTfan, you (and many others) give way too much credit to who is number one and who is number two in any given country. Let’s go back to last season for a moment. M/T won in Paris and was second in Canada. They got third in both the SP and FS at the GPF (and ended up in 4th) so by the time the Russian Nationals rolled around they were HEAVY favorites. K/S OTOH got silver medals at both GP and 5th and the GPF. BUT who delivered the best two performances those days? Kavaguti and Smirnov. It had nothing to do with who was the Russian’s Feds #1 (K/S) or who was the better team going into nationals (M/T) it was who performed better and it wasn’t M/T.
Originally Posted by Mirunna
That being said S/S has had a great year and why not? They have had no competition and kept the same program the whole season. They really have been under no pressure and have taken advantage with actually enjoying skating. As I have said before K/S have been off the ice for 4 month this season while everyone else has been practicing and competing so are they going to look as good as they did last year? Absolutely not, who would expect them to? I’m surprised they didn’t take a year off to recover.
Aliona and Robin are far from consistent skaters and were beat last year by K/S whose only mistake was a step out of a 3T so the Germans are normally very beatable (look at last year). It won’t happen this year, the Germans would have to make a lot of mistakes and the Russians are far from 100%, but the Russian have only been working on their long program for 16 weeks! Not long enough to defend a title.
BTW, If everything were even and the Russian were just as healthy as the Germans and both skating perfect programs with zero mistakes…the Russians would win with no trouble…that long program alone is the best in the world bar none! The Germans really only have the 3Fth to wow the crowd with the rest is pretty childish especially for a guy Robin’s age, he looks like he barely can pull it off. I hope for more maturity next year.
The rest won't even be close
"That being said S/S has had a great year and why not? They have had no competition and kept the same program the whole season."
That's not quite true, S/S faced the world champions at the GPF where they beat them by some margin. I don't understand what do you mean by "they kept the same program the whole season". And while their LP this year is not my favorite, it's a bit too much to call it silly. Their PCS score they receive are huge. Plus, beside the 3F, they have the 3T-3T sequence(which is hard, since I don't know any other current pair trying it), difficult lifts and steps. Their only problem is the solo side-by-side jump. I'm not trying to take anything away from K/S. But if both pairs skate clean, I'm sure S/S would win.