Any predictions for Europeans?

[cotillion]

Is it for sure that K&K, F&S, Coomes & Buckland will be at Euros? Also Alessandrini & Vaturi, I thought all these teams had pretty good injurys which kept them out of their Nats except for A&V. (Coomes & Buckland w\d after the SD.) Euros could become very interesting if some of the senior ,as in older teams don't show up. I can see B&S and H&Z on the podium behind P&B.

[blue_idealist]

I thought I saw the Kerrs and Faiella and Scali on the entry list. I can't remember about Coomes and Buckland.

[dorispulaski]

Here's the list of ice dance entries. Capellini & Lanotte are not going.:

1 Kira GEIL / Tobias EISENBAUER AUT 1
2 Lesia VALADZENKAVA / Vitali VAKUNOV BLR 2
3 Kristina TREMASOVA / Dimitar LICHEV BUL 3
4 Lucie MYSLIVECKOVA / Matej NOVAK CZE 4
5 Katelyn GOOD / Nikolaj SORENSEN DEN 5
6 Irina SHTORK / Taavi RAND EST 6
7 Henna LINDHOLM / Ossi KANERVO FIN 7
8 Pernelle CARRON / Lloyd JONES (D) FRA 8
9 Nathalie PECHALAT / Fabian BOURZAT (D) FRA 8
10 Allison REED / Otar JAPARIDZE GEO 9
11 Nelli ZHIGANSHINA / Alexander GAZSI GER 10
12 Penny COOMES / Nicholas BUCKLAND GBR 11
13 Sinead KERR / John KERR (D) GBR 11
14 Nora HOFFMANN / Maxim ZAVOZIN (D) HUN 12
15 Zsuzsanna NAGY / Mate FEJES HUN 12
16 Brooke Elizabeth FRIELING / Lionel RUMI (D) ISR 13
17 Lorenza ALESSANDRINI / Simone VATURI (D) ITA 14
18 Federica FAIELLA / Massimo SCALI (D) ITA 14
19 Federica TESTA / Christopher MIOR ITA 14
20 Isabella TOBIAS / Deividas STAGNIUNAS LTU 15
21 Ekaterina BOBROVA / Dmitri SOLOVIEV (D) RUS 16
22 Elena ILINYKH / Nikita KATSALAPOV (D) RUS 16
23 Ekaterina RIAZANOVA / Ilia TKACHENKO (D) RUS 16
24 Nikola VISNOVA / Lukas CSOLLEY SVK 17
25 Sara HURTADO / Adria DIAZ ESP 18
26 Ramona ELSENER / Florian ROOST SUI 19
27 Nadezhda FROLENKOVA / Mikhail KASALO (D) UKR 20
28 Siobhan HEEKIN-CANEDY / Alexander SHAKALOV (D) UKR 20

Alternates listed on the ISU website
Barbora SILNA / Juri KURAKIN AUT 1 S
Zoe BLANC / Pierre-Loup BOUQUET FRA 8 S
Stefanie FROHBERG / Tim GIESEN GER 10 S
Tanja KOLBE / Stefano CARUSO GER 10 S
Louise WALDEN / Owen EDWARDS GBR 11 S
Dora TUROCZI / Balazs MAJOR HUN 12 S
Charlene GUIGNARD / Marco FABBRI ITA 14 S
Kristina GORSHKOVA / Vitali BUTIKOV RUS 16 S
Jana KHOKHLOVA / Fedor ANDREEV RUS 16 S
Irina BABCHENKO / Vitali NIKIFOROV UKR

[pangtongfan]

I'm not sure what you are replying to, you just reiterated my point again. The only competition S/S have had all year was P/T; that was not so last year. The Germans only won one major competition out of 6 last year at Skate Canada. This year was so bad for pairs skating the ISU was getting pretty desperate to fill spots. Only 2 pairs had ever been to the GPF before. Once teams are able to compete and are healthy enough to be in their top form S/S will have competition again. It may happen by worlds it may not, and if next year is not plagued by break-ups and injuries I’m sure some teams would like to give them a hard time.

They are beatable, just because a K/S had only beaten them once in their 3½ year career together does not mean they can’t/won’t do it again. The Germans almost lost their world silver medal to K/S last year by less than a point (S/S were behind K/S after the SP) so their "fluke" at Europeans almost became another reality.

To recap Europeans:

S/S
K/S
B/L
G/E

Worlds:

Who knows at this point.......

The Germans won only 1 competition last year since:

1. They were skating miserably for their standards and making all kind of mistakes.
2. One of the greatest pair teams of all time- Shen & Zhou had returned.

All I proved is there arent many current pairs even healthy and skating their best who can compete with the Germans when healthy and skating fairly consistently anyway. Maybe none in fact. Pang & Tong are by far the closest of anyone though so competing against them they already had their toughest competition (though yes they have struggled some), and now Volosozhar & Trankov perhaps. Like I said who are the injured pairs who would make any difference, Dube & Davison and the Zhangs who the Germans could beat in their sleep anyway.

The Germans skating fairly well dominate all current pairs of their own generation. Look at the 07-08 and 08-09 seasons were they lost only 1 competition each seasons. The fact you think Kavaguti & Smirnov would ever beat Savchenko & Szolkowy with both skating cleanly is but I wont distrub your delusions.

[ImaginaryPogue]

5. If the paradigm shift with men and ladies was sudden (quads one year, no quads the next; juniors with amazing success on seniors immediately) and pairs virtually non-existent, the paradigm shift in ice dance has been marked, gradual and perhaps the most complex. And nowhere is the dichotomy (trichotomy?) as complex as within the European scene. I think how Euros’ plays out with be an interesting blueprint for the rest of the quad in Europe.

Anyone paying attention knows that Pechelat/Bourzat are the favourites. And with good reason! They have two acclaimed programs, have finally emerged as the French Fed’s number one (no asterisk necessary) and have CLEARLY worked extremely hard heading into this season). But they’re not locks. They have no error buffer (should other top teams skate clean). Their biggest advantage over the field is that they can produce high-level, high quality performances (good/great TES) and their PCS are equal or better than the rest. It would constitute a minor surprise if they lost.

But if they do, it’ll be to Faiella/Scali. Just to reiteration: bronze at first GP. WD of the next. That was their 10/11 season thus far. But remember, that was their 09/10 season too, and we know how that turned out: silver at Euros, top five at the Olympics, bronze at home. So it’s definitely plausible for them to rise as the season progresses. But doesn’t everyone just wonder... what if last year was a peak? It happens – the right confluence of events (withdraws, injuries, luck, training) allows a skater/team to have a great season/moment that remains unmatched for the rest of their career (Stefan Lindemann at Worlds 04, Chait/Sakhnovski at Worlds 02). And I sorta feel that way about F/S.

And then there’s the Kerrs. You know, I really thought they’d hang in there a season or two, have a couple good results, snag the European title at home in 2012, and call it a day with their best result. But losing to C/P, while somewhat predictable (a technically gifted young team at home) was still a bit jarring, even if you’re used to the new paradigm. An injury taking them out of CoR... not what the doctor ordered for a team that even when healthy struggles to get the high marks on TES (which are more important when your PCS advantage is minimized).

I think most of us, heading into this season would’ve predicted these as our European Medalists. But the skate gods.... they’re Dionysian tricksters sometimes. And this is where the current state becomes... murky.

What to do about Russian trio? The internet buzz was all about Ilynikh/Katsalpov. They were gonna do what the Canton quartet did - shoot to top ten their first year at Worlds. Follow that with a medal or two then win in Sochi with the weight of the mighty Russian federation behind them. The new paradigm was quick, instant success, a far cry from the old work your way up the ranks of the days of yore. Ignore the fact that the circumstances were dramatically different. Then came the skates. Missing the podium at NHK? Explanable (though not so much when you remember they beat the Shibutanis the year prior up and down the block, and now were losing to them even when the Shibs had a fall!). Barely making the podium at Russian Nationals? Just over a new team that was disgracefully overmarked? Not so much. You’ve gotta wonder about just how much politicking effects things when you hear Tarasova criticizing them for their lack of prep work but pushing K/A with her might.

Then we have Bobrova/Soloviev. The thing that makes this so weird is that basically they went from the number three Russian team (slightly) to the number one. Remember, in 2008/09 they were fourth at Russian Nationals (and this is without DomShabs competing), and they only clinched their Olympic spot by less than a point, so you have the sense that they were never really the ascending stars in the eyes of the federation. So what now? They’re good skaters without much to be excited about (how some people feel about Crone/Poirier). I do think the Kerrs need to be worried, as do F/S (if they haven’t figured out what went wrong earlier this season, beyond the dress). I think they’ll be on the podium.

And finally, Riazanova/Tkachenko. If you check out this thread, you’ll see most of us neglected to mention them, but man-oh-man have they made a splash. This is even more surprising when you remember that Riazanova and Tkachenko are also fairly new to each other. Actually, is Wikipedia is accurate, this team is newer than Ilynikh/Katsalpov! While their best isn’t really close to B/S’s, I do think they have the potential to score quite well.

Also, a strong skate could push Hoffman/Zavosin into the top five, but they need someone to bomb/underperform. And a little lament for Cappellini/Lanotte. Like Samuelson/Bates, this is probably the worst season to lose.

[Kinga]

My two cents: I hope Sarah Meier comes back strong, and will be a podium spoiler! It looks like everyone wrote her off...

[Nadine]

I don't have any predictions, just hopes! And my hopes are that Brian Joubert does well, and Adrian Schultheiss, whom really seems to be in a funk lately, hopefully he'll pull himself up at Euros.

Ah, and also I can't help comparing this year's Europeans to last year's, where I was literally a wreck emotionally. Lol, I recall constantly checking the thread and being overjoyed when I found out Zhenya had won!!!! It was my second happiest moment last year, Rostelecom Cup being my most happiest! Joy JOy JOY!

[Nadine]

p.s. and of course how can I forget Carolina, I hope for gazelle to do good as well.

[evangeline]

I know Voloshozhar and Trankov (I guess you meant him?), their performance at Russian Nationals was exquisite, and if they nail everything, S/S better watch out. Actually, they already look better than S/S when it comes to lifts, positions, etc. Maxim is a better skater than Robin, Tatiana is equally good as Aliona (if not better) and together they are a perfect match. But anyway, this is a discussion for a thread before Worlds.

The difference between S/S and V/T, at least this season, is that S/S actually have real programs. V/T's programs are basically connect-the-dot-style with elements strung together plus some music playing in the background. Don't get me wrong, I like V/T but they need more time to gel together, to be comfortable enough with each other to skate more complex programs with a real point of view.

These things will come in time for V/T and I think they will make great rivals for S/S in the future. But now? If S/S skate halfway decently, they will (and should) win.

[ImaginaryPogue]

I agree with evangeline pretty much completely. That said, the quality of many of V/T's elements is so superb, they've got gorgeous line, and they themselves are beautiful, so I can definitely see why people think they can challenge S/S. But right now, I think S/S are clearly revitalized and over their Olympic season disappointment and are clearly above the rest.

[Kinga]

The difference between S/S and V/T, at least this season, is that S/S actually have real programs. V/T's programs are basically connect-the-dot-style with elements strung together plus some music playing in the background. Don't get me wrong, I like V/T but they need more time to gel together, to be comfortable enough with each other to skate more complex programs with a real point of view.

These things will come in time for V/T and I think they will make great rivals for S/S in the future. But now? If S/S skate halfway decently, they will (and should) win.

Oh, of course I agree that in terms of 'artistic' value of the program V/T are not there yet and need to 'gel', so the next season they can show something more captivating and mature. However, I disagree that if S/S make mistakes and V/T nail everything, S/S should win, even if they have 'real programs'. At the end, V/T programs are not that bad and the technical content (if performed cleaned) should make up for that. If not, why just not mixed dance and pairs together, then I am pretty sure all dance teams will be ahead, because they for sure have more 'real programs'.

I predict the pair event will be the most interresting. V/T surprise me a lot but I have a feeling they will have at least one inconsistent performance either at here in the European or World. It is only my strange feeling for the competition. It can turn out completely diferrent. I realy like kavaguti/Smirnov a lot better than V/T (at least in term of the composition program) so I think they can do well too. Savchenko/Szolkovy is unknown because they have a lot of inconsistencies in previous years but now look great.

V/T are not going to Europeans. Sorry that our OT discussion about pairs in general confused you.

[ImaginaryPogue]

Oh and about the whole "Canton quartet this, Canton quartet that". Give me the break. It will come the terrible day when Davis/White will be World Champions gold team then you be happy ( See, I will not suck up to a team just to have solidarity on my side. I state my honest opinion). Ice Dancing is hopefully with fresh faces start to get back to the root, the basic dancing like it used to be: showing good dance and skating technique, style , composition ALONG WITH the artistry :It will hopefully develop now in the right direction with these other teams. The proper way

Too bad that most of the European teams don't have that. It will be thrilling to watch the high level difficulty of the Canton quartet devour the shallowness of Pechelat/Bourzat, the one-note emotive of Faella (though Scali's great), the technical infelicities of the Kerrs. I'd love to see everything in one package (and I do think Virtue/Moir do have everything). The proper way involves both athleticism and performance. If you don't believe that, shrug.....

[andofan]

For the men, I'm going with 1) Joubert, 2) Amodio, 3) Brezina

[dorispulaski]

chillyfranz, I beg to differ: if it were so easy to do the things D&W can do & do them better, there would be many teams who want to win who would be doing those things. I doubt that there are hordes of athletes who compete to lose because of their artistic integrity.

For example Bobrova & Soloviev & the Kerrs: if the two teams could be consistent on their twizzles, I'm sure they would be.

If Faiella & Scali could manage a pair spin from a back entry with good speed, I'm sure they would do it. And if Scali could manage a complex lift, he'd do it, but unfortunately they are too nearly the same size to have as wide a variety of lifts that V&M and D&W have. And if they had the speed & edging of D&W, they'd use it.

Those teams have their own great qualities, and D&W and V&M have their weak points, but it is silly to claim that the European teams lose because of their artistic integrity. They lose because that's how the rules are today-they favor the things D&W and V&M do well, and do not value as much the things the European teams do well.

It is possible to have the rules changed. If you feel the current set of rules do not favor good dancers, you should lobby your federation to push to have the rules changed.

[ImaginaryPogue]

Davis/White: this is funny. They give more shallow artistic impression than any one else.
You watch D/W and V/M performances everyday, 15 times a day, no ? Compared to only the other teams you only watch when they compete to nitpick on their flaws.
But good luck if you think that way.

And BTW< it is not difficult to do what Davis/White have approached to do. Other teams can shoot to the top just like them, but why they don't? Because they DON"T WANT to do the cheap way of skating tricks and compositions. It's the same with V/M's composition- just make a choreography with only showing element and loose transitions to show judges you can hit all the bullet. This mean choreographing under the new system. Not that it is totaly bad because the couples win and that is important to them. Why the newer faces don't shoot up so fast? Because their composition and approach to dance is complete, harmony, they are taking the high road, not the cheap road.

But in the serious manner, D/W being a silver medalist team tells just the pedigree of ice dance is now . If they can, anyone can.

And the "one note emotive" of Federica you mention was once use to describe Tessa Virtue.

Sorry if this is offnesive but I have a feeling Samuelson/Bates only go to Marina and Igor to fast-track there way to gold after seeing the results of their Olympiad

Simply put, the newer faces (the teams you don't want to like) choose to NOT just let their programs boil down to elements and lifts. Maybe doing it will not let them fast track there success in 3 short years but in the long run they will earn more respect than just getting remember for a Olympic medal and World medal

1. Sigh.

2. Okay. If you've read my comments in the past, you know I've been harder on D/W than I have on V/M. You would know that I've mentioned that they lack a specific connection to each other that would make them a transcendent team.

3. If you've read my comments in the past, you would know that I myself have called Tessa out on her expressive capabilities, particularly in the beginning of the 09/10 season where she seemed to only find a couple of shadings in "Mahler" (compared to Scott who is easily the most expressive male dancer current performing), and was so pleased that she found some more shadings to the romantic joy. The purity of their skating is remarkable

4. So, refresher. I though Faella/Scali's FD last season was second only to V/M's. I would rank D/W's FD behind a good number of teams in terms of choreographic depth. I was particularly impressed with the mirrored construction with the straight line lifts, the way the spin was placed and performed, and Scali's expressive capabilities are virtually peerless. If I call Faella out, it's because she doesn't find the nuances he does.

My third favourite free dance of last season was Cappelini/Lannotte's "Requiem for a Dream" number. I loved the way they wove the theme (drug addiction: she's the drug/he's the addict) throughout, and how they made Anna both highly alluring (that smile she gives during the straightline lift contains more expression than I've seen Faella come up with) and a little repulsive (note - not really, since she's the most attractive woman since Helen of Troy, but the gothic thing is not for everyone) was just awesome.

I would love to hear why you think Virtue/Moir's free program was less artistic than Pechelat/Bourzat, The Kerrs, or any number of teams you prefer. Also if you could explain how D/W lacked artistry in their incredibly nuanced OD as compared to any European team from last season, I'd appreciate that as well. I could go on-and-on about the way V/M conjure magic in motion, dazzle with poise and elegance. I could discuss how every second of that dance is just a work of art. I could point out that the spunk and enthusiasm D/W demonstrate with their Indian OD is absolutely endearing. I could mention that their Non-Midline-Touching Step Sequence is simply divine - articulated with details that both highlight technical difficulty and elucidate the music.

5. I find it startling to hear you say that the full bretheren of non-Canton teams are ignoring technical difficulty in favour of artistic integrity. Here I thought Bobrova/Soloviev didn't mean to screw up on the twizzles, but you're saying that their artistry trumps such concerns. Here I thought a team like the Kerrs struggled technically, but I thank you for informing me that the vision of their programs trump technical difficulty.

6. You seem to want a regression to where the form was virtually meaningless. Sorry if that offends you, but there's a reason longtime skating fans like janetfan still have a hard time taking dance seriously.