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Thread: The Possible Podium Spoilers at the US Nats

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    Custom Title Joesitz's Avatar
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    The Possible Podium Spoilers at the US Nats

    Which Second Tier Skater may possibly upset the Podium? Your Guess.

    Aaron, Dornbush, Armin, Keegan, Other?

    I would say Armin at this point, although I haven't seen anything more than his SA.

    For the Ladies:


    Gilles, Zawadski, Gao, Other?

    I would say Zawadski who seems very serious and determined to make this her sport.

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    Custom Title merrywidow's Avatar
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    My guess would be Dornbush or even young Brown. Since you chose Zawadski, I'll say Gao.

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    Quote Originally Posted by merrywidow View Post
    My guess would be Dornbush or even young Brown. Since you chose Zawadski, I'll say Gao.
    Unless Jason Brown got a 3A recently, don't expect him to challenge yet.

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    Armin could definately spoil for the podium, as could Caroline.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PolymerBob View Post
    Armin could definately spoil for the podium, as could Caroline.
    Armin, yes, Caroline...I think it would be a stretch for her this year as she's made so many changes recently. Next year is a definite possibility though.

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    Tripping on the Podium
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    I don't think Caroline will make the podium this year. Maybe next year if she sticks with Oppegard, gains some speed, and gets her technique issues sorted out.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Joesitz View Post
    Which Second Tier Skater may possibly upset the Podium? Your Guess.

    Aaron, Dornbush, Armin, Keegan, Other?

    I would say Armin at this point, although I haven't seen anything more than his SA.

    For the Ladies:


    Gilles, Zawadski, Gao, Other?

    I would say Zawadski who seems very serious and determined to make this her sport.
    Armin and Christina. See my post under the predictions thread for rationale.

    Also, what discussion does this new thread allow for that couldn't be included in the predictions thread? (Sure, it's more specific, but knowing these forums, we'll end up with ... or, as it often happens, both will, due to an inexplicable turn of events, turn into general discussions on Patrick Chan. Or Yuna Kim. Or some other contentious skater.)

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    Custom Title Joesitz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SerpentineSteps View Post
    Armin and Christina. See my post under the predictions thread for rationale.

    Also, what discussion does this new thread allow for that couldn't be included in the predictions thread? (Sure, it's more specific, but knowing these forums, we'll end up with ... or, as it often happens, both will, due to an inexplicable turn of events, turn into general discussions on Patrick Chan. Or Yuna Kim. Or some other contentious skater.)
    It's more of a what if thread. There are favorite skaters in the top tier of entrants. So if one (or more) falters and a second tier skater rises to the occasion, who would it be.

    Since I don't predict. I find too many predictions are based on nationality, ethnic backgrounds and music choices. We're not looking for the most popular skater. Hopefully, we have some feelings about the individiual skaters of the second tier. I do and would like to read that others do, too.

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    When I first saw Zawadski, she caught my eyes as the American lady with strong jumps, but it seems that nerves have gotten to her this season. Well, it was her senior debut so I don't blame her. I would give Zawadski a little more time to mature. I loved Gao last year at nationals though. From videos (this season) I've seen of her, I think she's most likely the second tier ladies skater who may find herself high up in the rankings. I would love it if she were to medal, actually. I see a lot of potential in her for the future.

    For the men, maybe Patrick Chan? I AM QUITE KIDDING.

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    Well, I would say Samantha Cesario, but she just withdrew from nationals. So, Gao, Zawadzki and maybe Lam or Siraj.

    For men, Dornbush, maybe Messing

  11. #11
    Tripping on the Podium
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    I'll say Armin or Dornbush for the men, Zawadzki (if she holds it together in the LP) for the Ladies.

  12. #12
    Rinkside
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joesitz View Post
    Which Second Tier Skater may possibly upset the Podium? Your Guess.

    Aaron, Dornbush, Armin, Keegan, Other?

    I would say Armin at this point, although I haven't seen anything more than his SA.

    For the Ladies:


    Gilles, Zawadski, Gao, Other?

    I would say Zawadski who seems very serious and determined to make this her sport.
    Aaron is competing in Junior Men, not Senior for the record, so obviously there won't be an upset there.

    Armin will upset if one of the veterans falters, Dornbush could also push through.

    Zawadski could challenge for Gold if she gets her act together on the LP. I've learned from watching to never underestimate Z's students. She can pull it off with a cleaner 3+3 combo than Flatt. On the other hand, Flatt could destroy technically if she's on her game.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Joesitz View Post
    For the Ladies:


    Gilles, Zawadski, Gao, Other?

    I would say Zawadski who seems very serious and determined to make this her sport.
    Zawadski NEEDS to gain mental toughness if she hopes to make it. I can let a couple "adjustment years" slide though. Can't expect too much too soon.

    In the event she DOES get it together, she'll be up there with the Contenders. I just don't think it will happen this year.

    Same with Gao.

    I think Nationals goes like this: the key for the Contenders is the Short Program; the key for the non-Contenders is the Free Skate.
    Last edited by R.D.; 01-22-2011 at 12:29 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by R.D. View Post

    I think Nationals goes like this: the key for the Contenders is the Short Program; the key for the non-Contenders is the Free Skate.
    Well said. ITA. It will be very exciting!
    Although I think it's also important that the newcomers on the cusp of medaling/making the final flight don't bomb the SP as well because if they end up in the penultimate warm up or even lower for the FS, their PCS will likely be quite a bit lower than they will be if they skate in the final flight, regardless of how well they skate. We saw at the JGPF that Christina and Yasmin both got lowballed in PCS in the FS even though they both skated fairly well in that segment after bombing the SP and having to skate in the first warm up. A similar SP at nationals for either girl could make the difference between, say a 4th place finish and an 8th place finish, regardless of how well the FS goes.

  15. #15
    Down With It
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    Under the NJS, if you are a Contender, you want to build yourself enough of a cushion in the SP so you can afford a mistake or two in the FS and still place well. If you're not, then you should position yourself well in the SP, and then shock everyone in the FS.

    You make a good point about program component scores. However, does that or does that not offset the increased jitters that occur due to being in striking distance of a Medal? Increased jitters = less relaxation = less confidence = more mistakes in FS.
    Last edited by R.D.; 01-22-2011 at 01:05 PM.

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