The Possible Podium Spoilers at the US Nats

[ibauer]

Hmmm. I don't see Gao overtaking Wagner unless Ashley implodes. I don't think Gao has much artistry yet.

[PolymerBob]

Caroline is done. I would be shocked if she is ever top 5 at Nationals again. With the veterans who have long passed her by and all the up and comers she is going to be buried.

I cant see what she can do even with hard work at this point. She has lost all her best qualities except the Pearl Spin sometimes, she has lost the cute factor, she will always have problems with speed, the judges perceive her as a has been, and just fixing her jump technique to go from horrendous to bearably mediocre jumps will not do anything for her at this point.

Alissa was a has-been. But she bounced back and the judges gave her what she deserved.

[pangtongfan]

I would definitely vote for Agnes and Christina as the biggest potential podium spoilers for the ladies. But as the season progressed, I'm now sort of betting on the "veterans" to make the podium again. Mirai, Alissa and Rachael probably.

I know Rachael is a question mark after the GPF but assuming it was a fluke and she'll be back on form, I don't see her missing the podium if she doesn't fall apart. Mirai and Alissa are always iffy but I'm betting on clean or cleanish performances for them. And then there is Ashley. I suppose Christina or Agnes could edge a solid Ashley out by out-jumping her but they will have to be stellar.

Since almost nobody is picking them to finish top 3 let alone top 2 to make the World team, I think Wagner, Gao, and Agnes could all be picked as good dark horses. Any of those 3 are capable of finishing 3rd or even 2nd depending on what transpires. Of course Czisny, Nagasu, and Flatt are the favorites, probably in that order. I have a feeling Flatt is the one who will find herself dumped to a surprisingly low placement unless she skates really well though.

[pangtongfan]

Alissa was a has-been. But she bounced back and the judges gave her what she deserved.

Alissa has many redeeming qualities which is not based on being tiny and she hasnt lost with age now as a fully grown women, so can always post results again if she skates consistently.

[silverlake22]

Alissa has many redeeming qualities which is not based on being tiny and she hasnt lost with age now as a fully grown women, so can always post results again if she skates consistently.

Agreed. Caroline I'd more group into the Kimmie Meissner situation. Dramatic change in body type led to dramatic decline in overall skating. Commentators try to cover this up by saying these skaters are "maturing" and "improving in artistry" but what they really mean is that they have gained substantial weight and/or height which has caused the triples to abandon these skaters leaving "artistry" as the only thing left to talk about.

[silverlake22]

Hmmm. I don't see Gao overtaking Wagner unless Ashley implodes. I don't think Gao has much artistry yet.

Well, Ashley is prone to mistakes and has lots of technical issues with her skating. Gao has very strong technique, plans 7 triples in her FS and a 3-3 in her SP, and falls victim to URs and 2-foots far less often than Ashley does. Her spins aren't the best but she gets the high levels and her +GOE on jumps should make up for the lack of it on some of her spins. I also expect Christina's PCS will be a lot higher than last year's nationals and further, if Ashley bombs the SP I don't think she'll receive as much PCS inflation as she will if she skates a clean SP. Agnes has a lot of the same strengths as Christina, although she has been far more inconsistent in the FS thus far this season.

[Layfan]

That's true. With Alissa it's not that there was ever a dramatic deterioration in her skating. It's more that she had trouble skating clean all along. Maybe she's a slower than when she was younger - and she hasn't tried a 3-3 in years and years. But there's no major deterioration.

[Layfan]

Well, Ashley is prone to mistakes and has lots of technical issues with her skating. Gao has very strong technique, plans 7 triples in her FS and a 3-3 in her SP, and falls victim to URs and 2-foots far less often than Ashley does. Her spins aren't the best but she gets the high levels and her +GOE on jumps should make up for the lack of it on some of her spins. I also expect Christina's PCS will be a lot higher than last year's nationals and further, if Ashley bombs the SP I don't think she'll receive as much PCS inflation as she will if she skates a clean SP. Agnes has a lot of the same strengths as Christina, although she has been far more inconsistent in the FS thus far this season.

I kind of agree. That's why I said I think that even if Ashley is solid Christina or Agnes just might edge her out by out-jumping her. But I do think Ashley has a certain polish that is not quite there yet with Christina and Agnes. And it's worth noting that Ashely posted the second highest score this season among the U.S. ladies, if I'm not mistaken. I don't think none of these skaters are vastly superior to the other so it'll come down to who has their A-game.

[#1Kerryfan]

I think Armin is the most likely underdog to make the podium in the men's competition. I really like him. He already has beaten Adam once this season.
As for ladies, I think Christina or Agnes is the most likely, but I'm practically sure it will be Alissa, Mirai, Rachael and Ashley in some order. Then again, I'm not saying that's how it will be. I never would have guessed Alissa would have won the GPF.

[Mystic]

What about possible podium spoilers for pairs and dance?
Pairs - Castelli and Schnapir, Marley and Brubaker, Davis and Theftheris, Vise and Baldwin and Donlan and Speroff.

[pangtongfan]

I would love to see Ashley pull a big surprise and make the top 2 and the World team or even win. It seems she has been in the shadows of Flatt, Nagasu, and Zhang forever (she is clearly above Zhang now but her biggest career achievements still pale and might always pale in comparision to Zhangs's). I have a feeling if Ashley doesnt make it higher than 3rd this year she never will again as she is older than Flatt and Nagasu, and the younger ones from behind are coming up fast.

[Nadine]

If there's to be a spoiler at Nationals, it will come from Agnes Zawadzki imho.

[silverlake22]

I'd love to see double wins from Team Orser. How cool would it be if Adam and Christina were both the US Champions just 1 year after Yuna won Olympic Gold? That would be SO AWESOME and it isn't completely out of the question (although not the likeliest of situations, either).

[SkateSkates]

I could definitely see Ashley skating well - the last time she was out of the spotlight as a "frontrunner" (2008), she skated two clean programs with triple-triples in both, finishing second in both segments of the competition.

[evangeline]

I'd love to see double wins from Team Orser. How cool would it be if Adam and Christina were both the US Champions just 1 year after Yuna won Olympic Gold? That would be SO AWESOME and it isn't completely out of the question (although not the likeliest of situations, either).

I for one would hate to see how terrible the ladies competition at US Nationals would be if Christina Gao wins the US title. Not very awesome at all. Realistically, Gao is at the mercy of how well the US top ladies fare--as headcase-ish as some of the top US ladies are, I highly doubt that all 4 of Czisny, Nagasu, Wagner and Flatt will bomb in a single competition.