Who Could Be Patrick Chan's Challenger In the Next Couple of Years?
I still couldn't get over with the excitement of Patrick's skating. Thought I could start this thread, so we could talk about him more.
If Patrick skates like how he skated at Canadian Nationals this time, no contest, he'll definitely win the world championship no matter how any other skaters skate.
I'm thinking there got to be someone who would rise up and challenge him in this Olympic cycle. Who will be? Will that be Oda? Kozuka? Brezina? Or somebody else? Your thoughts?
Well, in my opinion, it's a little too early to be calling him the "Yuna Kim" of men's figure skating so to speak... but definitely the three you mentioned. I mean, though he hasn't done it (much?) in competition, Oda's 4/3/3 is definitely enough to rival Patrick's 4/3.
I honestly don't consider Patrick the best out of all the men skating nowadays, though I do recognize his skill, it's just he's never moved me nor made me feel excitement, et al. Therefore, I definitely see him as beatable on the PCS score, but if he keeps skating consistently with quads and a triple axel, then I acknowledge he will be hard to beat. But then again anybody that has that type of arsenal on a consistent basis will be hard to beat, not just him, and there are a number of guys that have the goods but just need to lay it down when it counts, including Patrick, as I don't consider Patrick consistent either.
The field is wide open. Each man has a chance to grab the brass ring every competition out, it just depends on if he skates clean that day with the requisite full arsenal of quads, triples, triple-triple combinations, and skating with conviction. It's any man's game!
I dunno, Nadine. The judges are giving him PCS numbers that are telling the world that when he's on, he isn't beatable. Those numbers he posted at the GPF were high 80's. Even when he bombs he was scoring in the 80's, PCS wise.
I gotta get going, but I just wanted to say "nah, numbers are just numbers", it's any man's game and I honest to God believe that 210%!!!!
Nobody will beat Patrick Chan in the next few years. I mean, if he skates clean he is excellent and deserves it, and if he falls several times, he still wins or comes very close. Was he clean at Canadian Nationals? I didn't see it, but if so, good for him. He needs to skate well to stop people from making fun of him as "judges pet."
Perhaps years from now, after he marries his debutante partner Rachael and little Patrick Jr. keeps him up all night, maybe he'll be really tired and skate with shallow edges or something. But until then? I don't think anyone will beat him.
leave no stone unturned
Who Could Be Patrick Chan's Challenger In Next A Couple Years?
If he skates like Nationals, NONE.
He has 2 quads in Lp, the axel maybe is secure and pcs to give to the neighbors also. His skate could be more personal and warm, but anyway maybe he will find his way once he feels more secure.
Chan ´s team did something really clever, I mean it in a god way, the opposite of lets say Kozuka, they invested in his pcs the first years of his seniors competitions, the part that is more subjective, by enhancing transitions and choreo, the rest of pcs went up also. Kozuka took him 3 seasons to start getting recognized in pcs, whatever he did.
Now Chan has established the pcs part, usually there are not big variations from competition to competition, the norm is that he wont get any 7s even if he skates his worst ever. So now they built his TES which is rather more objective and if they keep adding his TES I see him breaking Dai´s and Evgeni´s world records!
Chan has certainly notified the rest of the field he means business, but we do need to see him solidify this result with clean programs, with quads, in the future.
In my mind Kozuka is his biggest challenger, with both good tech content and artistry. I also wouldn't rule out Abbott - if he can find some consistency.
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Well, Takahashi, if he doesn't retire.
I'm hard pressed to think of anyone else. Maybe Rippon, if he gets a consistent quad. Maybe Abbott, if he becomes more consistent, since his programs are so refined.
leave no stone unturned
Kozu and Dai are much better preference of mine but i was trying to think realistically with numbers.
But Rippon? Rippon is slow and has to improve in many things except for adding the quad.
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Yeah, but Rippon improved so much in such a short time already. Plus, he has good programs and artistry.
Rippon has a long way to go to touch even Japan #3.
I think only the current Japanese boys can match Patrick's best is Oda. Oda can out TES Patrick, he needs to be confident with his quad. If he works on PCS and with Japan blessing, I think he can legitimately gives Patrick a good run every time they match up. Dai is getting old. The days he regularly attempted 2 quads and 2 triple axels in his LP are over. Koz is good, but don't think he could out TES Patrick.
If Oda does this program
He has 1 triple axel advantage over Patrick + better GOE on jumps. If his PCS are within 5 points, he can win.
Rippon needs more tech and Brezina more artistry to be competitive with Chan, IMO.
Maybe Gatchinski if he leaves Mishin. Amodio has shown a lot of improvement, too.
Oda did beat a clean Chan in a SP. It could be Oda. At the GPF he fell on his quad attempt but he did a 4/3 in the SP so that says he can do it.
Euro Men SP is like tomorrow so some of the potential for Chan challengers could be measured right then. You will see AModio and Brezina and Gachinski. How long are Verner and Joubert going to skate after this season? Maybe they will continue I don't know.
What would be interesting would be if Plushenko did get his eligibility back and really did compete and Chan got Cup of Russia like he always does and they faced off in 2011 Cup of Russia or 2012 or whatever. So many ifs there.
Meanwhile in a parallel universe ....
The skaters that come to mind are: Kozuka, Abbott, Oda, and Takahashi and MAYBE Rippon
Kozuka has the skating skills and is starting to get more leverage on his PCS. Once Kozuka gains the confidence and skate like he did in TEB, there is no saying how much the gap between him and Chan will lessen. Also, most importantly he needs the right programs that will be the right fit for him in showing off his talent and skills. Last season's programs had to have been my favorite. This season is mmmm bleh and in the middle. In the beginning of this season, I hated his SP but I am starting to like it more and more since Kozuka keeps getting better. And we are starting to see another side to Kozuka as well as some personality.
Abbott can definitely play a factor in my opinion. While there has been much praise over Chan's program at Nationals, honestly Abbott's LP performance last year blew me away on all notes. I would choose Abbott's 2010 Nationals program over Chan's program any day. Like another poster said, Abbott is "refined" and has a nice polish to his skating. When his jumps are on, Abbott has a high chance of making the podium.
Takahashi, I think just his name itself is enough. Right now he has lost his mojo and hasn't been doing so hot this season. But he has the ammunition to overtake Chan, with his high PCS. There have been mixed reviews on his SP, which I absolutely love! If he can add in a quad All that is left are his jumps......
Rippon has the looks and has shown considerable improvement this season. And apparently it also doesnt hurt when you have Brian Orser as your coach and David Wilson as your choreographer. Rippon needs to improve his basics and get rid of the pump like motion in his cross-overs. The Rippon lutz is golden, his spins are great and his 3-axel is getting more consistent. I will just give Rippon another season or two until we really see the skater in him.