Who Could Be Patrick Chan's Challenger In the Next Couple of Years?

silverlake22 · Jan 26, 2011

Jeremy Abbott will never catch Chan, IMO. He's just not in the same league at all. Abbott belongs in the Joubert-Verner-Oda-Brezina-Rippon group, the 2nd tier. Not the 1st tier which is currently Takahashi-Chan-Kozuka. Or if he did manage to move to the very top it would just be the Evan Lysacek situation all over again. He's also 25, I listed some other guys who are below Abbott now but they are also much younger and could have a big breakthrough in the future.

prettykeys · Jan 26, 2011

Jeremy Abbott at his best can be brilliant. I am skeptical that anyone at their best could challenge Patrick Chan's best (which at this point would include 1 quad in the SP and 2 quads in the LP), but if Patrick has an off-day, Jeremy Abbott could potentially step up.

I would put Abbott in line before imagining Rippon having a breakthrough that could/would challenge Chan. Rippon is a super-nice guy and can be lovely to watch, but I don't see it in him now or in the future. Plus, he is older than Chan and hasn't yet demonstrated a potential to match Abbott, let alone Chan. So... :scratch: I don't think anyone citing hopes for Rippon should shake their head at Abbott.

ImaginaryPogue · Jan 27, 2011

gmyers said:
Oda did beat a clean Chan in a SP. It could be Oda. At the GPF he fell on his quad attempt but he did a 4/3 in the SP so that says he can do it.

Chan's quad was URed. If it wasn't, Chan would've been ahead.

Right now I think Kozuka first, especially if Japan gets the full force of the fed behind him.

Abbott.... I dunno - I think he's post-peak. He'll win a third Nationals, but the spate of American men that want a bite of that podium is numerous.

I don't think of Takahashi competing next season, truth be told. But certainly not all the way until Sochi.

Oda? Really don't know. I also wonder how long he'll compete.

FlattFan · Jan 27, 2011

^^ Oda was given really crappy PCS at the GPF. Even if Patrick's 4T were rotated, his TES would still be lower than Oda's.

I think only Oda is going for a quad in the SP and a quad in the LP, so he's the only one who can legitimately challenge Patrick at his best if he works on his PCS. Maybe go to Tamara Moskvina and ask her for 2 programs. Those programs will guarantee high PCS.

ivy · Jan 27, 2011

I've never really "got" Oda as a skater - beyond the fact he can spin fast in the air - beyond that he's just not to my taste - so his GP PSC don't seem crappy, but appropriate.

My three fav. mens' skates of recent times were Abbott at '10 nats, Kozuka at TEB and Chan at '11 nats. Chan's skate has more then 20 points on the others, but really the TES content isn't so different that GOEs can't tilt it one way or another.

Abbott's age is a factor, but some how I don't feel he's peaked yet, though Dai seems past peak to me. Who knows - this is just based on snippets of their lives I see on TV. One thing Jeremy has going for him, in my mind, is he pretty far ahead of his US competition so could probably win several more nats. Being 5x (or more !?!) US champ would be pretty motivational.

I'm ready to get excited about some of the up and comers, but it didn't happen in the GP season.

ImaginaryPogue · Jan 27, 2011

FlattFan said:
^^ Oda was given really crappy PCS at the GPF. Even if Patrick's 4T were rotated, his TES would still be lower than Oda's.

I think only Oda is going for a quad in the SP and a quad in the LP, so he's the only one who can legitimately challenge Patrick at his best if he works on his PCS. Maybe go to Tamara Moskvina and ask her for 2 programs. Those programs will guarantee high PCS.

He deserves good PCS for the short, but not the long. And Oda's PCS were ahead of Kozuka's in the LP, which I think is entirely wrong. And Moskvina's programs tend to be nuttily hard.

ivy, I don't think I agree that Abbott's that far ahead of his competitors. At the Japan Open. Rippon laid down a massive LP score that Abbott hasn't touched yet this season, and yeah - it's a fluff competition, but I wouldn't place him on the pedestal just yet. Mroz has also posted LP scores that can beat Abbott on a down day.

Jammers · Jan 27, 2011

Not only that but there is a lot of talent coming up in the ranks so who knows what the US team will look like in just 2 years.

Bluebonnet · Jan 27, 2011

Kozuka could be the one if he raises his technical content which I think he could, given he is still young and has just caught up the judges attention since this season. His SS and TR could give Chan a run.

Does Brezina's injury still not totally recovered yet? He was fearless last year. The height in his jumps are so high which looked like he could fit a quintuple turn there. He has all the quads in practice and looked like a man with less mental distractions than Verner and Abbott.

Takahashi is, I agree with the people who say that, a little over the hill. He could definitely beat a flawed Chan but not a clean Chan.

Oda?:scowl: I thought he ought to be on the top multiple times more than he's already gotten. Just when you thought that this time he could get it, he missed the calculation or something else. I don't know if he could beat Chan. But possible.

Abbott is not in Chan's league any more after Chan's 3 quads success. His only quad in LP is not secure, less than 40% success rate. I think he could be magnificent, but he is not confident. It's hard for him to be up that much.

Rippon has quad in practice but he's never tried it in competition, I think? I just don't think he could match a clean and collect Abbott yet.

wallylutz · Jan 27, 2011

I think this question is a little premature. Wait till Patrick Chan win in Tokyo Worlds this year before we start to suggest who might challenge him. If he wins the Worlds with a 20+ points margin, then yes, it may be interesting to guess who could challenge him. Until then, Takahashi is still the World Champion

pangtongfan · Jan 27, 2011

Nobody. Takahashi is the only one who can challenge or beat him on PCS right now, but technically he is nowhere near as strong anymore. Plus the judges have a big Chan orgy love-in and will give him vcitories even with 6 falls and the others going clean like I said. So forget it. Chan is gauranteed to win the 2011 Worlds, 2012 Worlds, 2013 Worlds, and 2014 Olympics, at which point he will retire. How he skates, how many times he falls, and how anyone else skates is irrelevant. Mens skating over the next quad, zzzzzzzz. Thank goodness there are the other 3 disciplines of real competitive skating to keep me interested. :laugh:

pangtongfan · Jan 27, 2011

gmyers said:
What would be interesting would be if Plushenko did get his eligibility back and really did compete and Chan got Cup of Russia like he always does and they faced off in 2011 Cup of Russia or 2012 or whatever. So many ifs there.

Plushenko wont dare to try and return now that he sees how Chan is skating. Plushenko was already past his prime in Vancouver, losing to Lysacek. :laugh:

His jumps, spins, overall skating, footwork, all far worse than his prime years at that point, and I cant imagine what they would look like at 29-31. Now that Chan has quads he blows away the current version of Plushenko in every category. Plushenko probably wanted to stay eligible when he thought Lysacek and headcase Takahashi were his main competition, but now he will be happy he has an excuse to never come back since I am sure he wants no piece of Chan right now.

pangtongfan · Jan 27, 2011

And what is with all the Abbott love in this forum. Abbott cant even compete against the Japanese men on a decent day. Right now the mens field looks like this:

Chan

------huge gap----

Kozuka
Takahashi
Oda

------huge gap--------

Amodio
Verner
Abbott

Bluebonnet · Jan 27, 2011

gmyers said:
Euro Men SP is like tomorrow so some of the potential for Chan challengers could be measured right then. You will see AModio and Brezina and Gachinski. How long are Verner and Joubert going to skate after this season? Maybe they will continue I don't know.

What would be interesting would be if Plushenko did get his eligibility back and really did compete and Chan got Cup of Russia like he always does and they faced off in 2011 Cup of Russia or 2012 or whatever. So many ifs there.

Well, Euro Men SP is over now. Looks like there is no men could challenge not only Chan but also all three Japanese men. Europe is now totally changing guards while Japan and North America are continuing their rings. There could be another a couple of years before Europe could catch up.

I don't know if Joubert will continue his original plan of skating till 2012. The way he skates now is just hard to watch (I haven't watched it yet. But his score told the story.)

I honestly hope that Plushenko won't come back again, and give a chance to Patrick Chan to, to use seniorita's words

, kick his butt. :biggrin:

pangtongfan said:
Mens skating over the next quad, zzzzzzzz. Thank goodness there are the other 3 disciplines of real competitive skating to keep me interested.

But you're certainly interested in it enough to read this thread and drop your comments. :biggrin:

Blades of Passion · Jan 27, 2011

Triple posting, all while putting down every single skater you possibly can. Impressive.

:disapp:

blue_idealist · Jan 27, 2011

If Amodio and Brezina improve, they could challenge him, but not at the moment.

seniorita · Jan 27, 2011

pangtonfan have you ever made a post about pang/tong?

you certainly are a ray of light of positvity :laugh:

aftertherain · Jan 27, 2011

Blades of Passion said:
Triple posting, all while putting down every single skater you possibly can. Impressive.

:disapp:

It's not really surprising anymore. :sheesh:

seniorita said:
pangtonfan have you ever made a post about pang/tong?
you certainly are a ray of light of positvity

-----
Anyway, I'd have to say that Dai definitely should beat him on PCS (the best in the world at the moment), but because of Dai's terrible injury, he is no longer able to land jump as consistently so Patrick has the edge over him on the techinicals (very nice 4/3 at Nationals, btw).

Still crossing my fingers though!

blue dog · Jan 27, 2011

Blades of Passion said:
Triple posting, all while putting down every single skater you possibly can. Impressive.

:disapp:

He's working his way up to a quad.

Olympia · Jan 27, 2011

aftertherain said:
-----
Anyway, I'd have to say that Dai definitely should beat him on PCS (the best in the world at the moment), but because of Dai's terrible injury, he is no longer able to land jump as consistently so Patrick has the edge over him on the techinicals (very nice 4/3 at Nationals, btw).

Still crossing my fingers though!

I always cross my fingers for Takahashi! Not to say anything against Chan, who's wonderful, but at this moment my heart belongs to Daisuke. Part of it is Daisuke's inspired skating, and part is my general principle of wishing for injured skaters to come back to full strength.

silverlake22 · Jan 27, 2011

I'd like to see Tomas stay in til 2014, since he bombed both Olympics he's been in thus far. And further, skating for the Czech republic Brezina is his only competition and between the 2 of them maintaining 2 spots for CZE at Euros and Worlds shouldn't be a problem. I also like the Brezina-Verner dynamic that's going on right now, I think having the other one helps both work harder and stay hungry for success.

As for Joubert, I'm not so sure he is really outdated and past his prime, I just think he is in a bit of a slump right now. If he could bounce back and regain his old form, he definitely could still be a factor on the GP and European stage. Medaling at Worlds each year probably won't happen anymore, but if his body can take it I'd like to see him try and compete in Sochi. Plus having him stick around will probably help Amodio improve.

Who Could Be Patrick Chan's Challenger In the Next Couple of Years?

silverlake22

prettykeys

ImaginaryPogue

FlattFan

Match Penalty

ivy

ImaginaryPogue

Jammers

Bluebonnet

wallylutz

pangtongfan

Match Penalty

pangtongfan

Match Penalty

pangtongfan

Match Penalty

Bluebonnet

Blades of Passion

Skating is Art, if you let it be

blue_idealist

seniorita

aftertherain

blue dog

Trixie Schuba's biggest fan!

Olympia

silverlake22

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