Senior Men's LP (starts at 4pm EST)

[Layfan]

Abbott was actually better than Weir the final 2 seasons of Weirs career.

Abbott in 08-09 and 09-2010 achieved 2 U.S titles, GP title, Skate Canada title, 5th at Worlds

Weir in 08-09 and 09-2010 achieved 1 U.S bronze, 2 GP final bronzes, 6th at Olympics

Weir is being built up into something he is not in this thread. He was only the 3rd U.S man at best behind Lysacek and Abbott his final 2 seasons. And seeing how Weir peaked in his skating at the 2010 Olympics it probably was all downhill from there had he even continued. If Weir had competed at the 2010 Worlds instead of Rippon (since Bradley was over Rippon at Nationals) quite possibly Weir would have not skated as well as in Vancouver and been lower than 8th and the U.S lost 3 spots. And since Weir had to skate the performances of his life to only come 6th in Vancouver that was an easily possible scenario.

I agree Jeremy was the better skater last year but it doesn't matter if you don't deliver and Johnny delivered at the Olympics and the GPF. Jeremy didn't. You can't possibly know how he would have done at worlds. nobody can.

Just trying to remember the sequence of events, though, did Abbott really start talking about training to peak at Worlds on his own, or was it only after the Carroll-Lysacek PR campaign where they, after nationals the previous two seasons, started explaining that peaking at Worlds/Olympics rather than Nationals was their plan, to make it seem they were right on schedule and anyone would be silly to try to peak at Nationals. After that, didn't it kind of snowball or morph into Jeremy peaks too early? Or did Jeremy and his team initiate the "I've been peaking too early" talk? Because again I remember it as a PR move on Carroll's part to make it seem like good strategy for Evan and something they planned, as if finishing second at Nationals was actually a GOOD thing. ??

Not really sure what the difference is. Can't blame Evan or Frank for what Jeremy did at nationals this year. Skaters are always talking about peaking and trying to put a good spin on things when things don't go as planned.

After her second place finish, Rachael Flatt also said at the news conference Saturday that she hopes to peak at worlds. Evan didn't invent that kind of talk.

[rallycairn]

^ I guess for me the difference is whether a pattern was really occurring or if something was latched onto as an explanation after the fact that really wasn't a true explanation. In other words, has Jeremy truly peaked too early due to his training plan, formulated in advance, or is he just inconsistent, but the peaking too early theory sounded good and seemed like something they could change or control? The link to Lysacek-Carroll is, Carroll served the "peak too early" theory as something his athlete would never do, and Abbott's team decided, after disappointing World/Oly results, to take that ball and keep it in play: "Yes, yes, that's right, I've been peaking too early -- all I have to do is quit peaking too early and all will be well."

Of course these things are multifactorial and maybe part of it truly was that Jeremy's training had him peaking too early. But again it seems more an explanation after the fact that has kind of taken on a life of its own to me.

I suppose it's kinda academic -- again unless, as I feel, it's just more that Abbott is plain inconsistent, not that he peaks too early. But mentally, maybe the peaking too early theory helped him with his confidence, made him feel again that things could be under his control if he would just quit peaking too early.

[Layfan]

^ I guess for me the difference is whether a pattern was really occurring or if something was latched onto as an explanation after the fact that really wasn't a true explanation. In other words, has Jeremy truly peaked too early due to his training plan, formulated in advance, or is he just inconsistent, but the peaking too early theory sounded good and seemed like something they could change or control? The link to Lysacek-Carroll is, Carroll served the "peak too early" theory as something his athlete would never do, and Abbott's team decided, after disappointing World/Oly results, to take that ball and keep it in play: "Yes, yes, that's right, I've been peaking too early -- all I have to do is quit peaking too early and all will be well."

Of course these things are multifactorial and maybe part of it truly was that Jeremy's training had him peaking too early. But again it seems more an explanation after the fact that has kind of taken on a life of its own to me.

I suppose it's kinda academic -- again unless, as I feel, it's just more that Abbott is plain inconsistent, not that he peaks too early. But mentally, maybe the peaking too early theory helped him with his confidence, made him feel again that things could be under his control if he would just quit peaking too early.

Jeremy's training got off to a slow start this year because of his boot issues. So he kept saying, well, maybe that's a good thing because I'll peak at worlds. It never occurred to him that he would not make the team. I think Jeremy's constant talk about when to peak this year and giving us a laundry list of reasons why he is more confident is a sign that Jeremy still overthinks everything.

[emma]

^ I don't know the exact timing, but it wouldn't surprise me if the Carroll-Lysacek "PR" made it easier for other skaters to use this language or explain this approach in press conferences or sound bits, after all, it appears that it worked well for Evan last year. And like Evan the year before that, Jeremy had an absolutely fabulous - amazing - FS at nationals, one for the ages, and he sort of ran out of competitive gas after that (although it is also entirely possible that he was also just ridiculously nervous or only nervous and not "really" out of gas). But, I think what I'm saying is two things: a) athletes do plan peaks, although each sport has different kinds of needs and methods (i was amazed to learn how swimmers plan for competitions, for example); and b) athletes adopt a competitive strategy that includes what they say in their inner circle and what they say publicly as the season goes on. I suspect that Yuka and jason were trying to pace jeremy or help him pace himself (I also worry that a lot is going on with that boot problem (that, as others have pointed out, might be an injury), unfortunately, it just didn't work out. Part of me is hoping that he keeps this LP (a la Chan) and works at it and brings it fresh and clean (with full body health) and a quad next year.

[Olympia]

And you know what? If Jeremy is going to goof up at a Nationals and get bumped off the World team, better he does it in the post-Olympic year, and maybe learns from it in time to be ready for next time and even for Sochi if he decides to stay in that long.

[Layfan]

^ I don't know the exact timing, but it wouldn't surprise me if the Carroll-Lysacek "PR" made it easier for other skaters to use this language or explain this approach in press conferences or sound bits, after all, it appears that it worked well for Evan last year. And like Evan the year before that, Jeremy had an absolutely fabulous - amazing - FS at nationals, one for the ages, and he sort of ran out of competitive gas after that (although it is also entirely possible that he was also just ridiculously nervous or only nervous and not "really" out of gas). But, I think what I'm saying is two things: a) athletes do plan peaks, although each sport has different kinds of needs and methods (i was amazed to learn how swimmers plan for competitions, for example); and b) athletes adopt a competitive strategy that includes what they say in their inner circle and what they say publicly as the season goes on. I suspect that Yuka and jason were trying to pace jeremy or help him pace himself (I also worry that a lot is going on with that boot problem (that, as others have pointed out, might be an injury), unfortunately, it just didn't work out. Part of me is hoping that he keeps this LP (a la Chan) and works at it and brings it fresh and clean (with full body health) and a quad next year.

That's such a good idea about him keeping his LP. It's a beautiful program and it's such a pity that he was never able to deliver it perfectly.

I guess he still has 4CC. It would be so fabulous if Jeremy won 4CC and ended his year that way.

[Bluebonnet]

I like Jeremy this year's LP, but I wish that he won't keep it for next year. If any old programs that he should go back to, it would be his LP in Olympic year. As I said many times before, this year's LP was simple, particularly simple between the elements. Jeremy has the ability to have much more complicated footworks and sophisticate moves to showcase his skating skills and transitions which not many in the world could do, in the meantime, with his superior musicality. This LP failed to do that.

As of peaking too early, I think last a couple of years, Jeremy has peaked at the right time in his plan.

In 2008-09, Nationals was Jeremy's No.1 goal because he has never won that at the time. He got it. In 2009-10, go to the Olympics and be an Olympian was his dream ever since he was a little kid. He had to do everything and made sure that he could. There was no back up, either in or lose the chance of a lifetime, probably, forever. So he did everything to make sure that he could be on the Olympic team. His team helped with correct plan to fulfill it. He did it beautifully and his dream came true. After that? He has never had a real plan in the back of his mind about what to do after he's reached his lifetime dream. And he doesn't have the mental, and maybe physical stamina like Yagudin or Plushenko. So he couldn't hold on and continue the peak at the Olympics.

This year, his No.1 goal is a Worlds medal. Of course, he'd love to have three National titles in his pocket. But it's not his focus this time. So he didn't put his greatest effort mentally and physically into it. Thought that he could get away with it like what Lysacek did last year. Even on the ice during the LP, even at K&C after the LP, I personally believe that, he was still thinking that he could get away with it and somehow stay on the podium. Not being able to go to the Worlds has totally ruined his plan. I bet he has never ever prepared for this, not even in dreams.

[pangtongfan]

I agree Jeremy was the better skater last year but it doesn't matter if you don't deliver and Johnny delivered at the Olympics and the GPF. Jeremy didn't. You can't possibly know how he would have done at worlds. nobody can.

I didnt say anything about the events Weir beat Abbott at. And I said nothing about what ifs or disregard for Abbotts inconsistency. Abbotts overall record was still better than Weir. He won 4 events, Weir won none those 2 seasons. A GP final title is better than 2 bronzes, 2 U.S titles is obviously way better than a 3rd and 5th, and 5th at Worlds is really no different than 6th at the Olympics. Weir finishing above Abbott in a couple events doesnt change that. Weir was only the #3 U.S skater in 2009 and 2010.

As for Weir at Worlds while one cant know exactly how he skated, one can safely say even if he skated as he did in Vancouver (his max) he would have been fighting for places 4th downwards with Brezina, Abbott, and even Rippon. And since by that point he didnt usually skate up to that level, a very good chance he would have done worse than that.

[FlattFan]

We've already had this discussion several times in several threads. The goal is to peak at your most important competition. That means you structure your season's training so that you are at your strongest for THAT competition. Abbott in the last 2 years has structured his training to peak at Nationals and then has had less-than-stellar skates at Olympics/Worlds. You can't be at your best for competitions all the time, it's just not possible. Look at the one season Joubert won everything in sight and then he started having physical problems and so on.

Urgh, no. Kanako Murakami won everything last year. Shen/Zhao won everything last year. Let's call it what it is: inconsistency.
If you're trained well, you should do well in your first competition as well as your last competition.
Yuna Kim peaked at TEB and then slumped and then peaked at the Olympics, was that her plan?

[Layfan]

Urgh, no. Kanako Murakami won everything last year. Shen/Zhao won everything last year. Let's call it what it is: inconsistency.
If you're trained well, you should do well in your first competition as well as your last competition.
Yuna Kim peaked at TEB and then slumped and then peaked at the Olympics, was that her plan?

I don't know if that was Yuna's plan but Rachael said Saturday she "hopes to peak at worlds." Just saying.

[dorispulaski]

And if you've had a year with significant injuries, as say Rachael, and Ryan Bradley, and Ross Miner did, it makes sense to hope to be really at your best at your last competition of the year. Or for that matter if you're Jeremy Abbott fighting to get a good pair of boots.

But sometimes you don't come back from that injury fast enough to compete, or to compete well:
Ross Miner didn't get to Jr Worlds or US Nationals last year because of injury
Joshua Farris didn't skate his best this nationals because of a broken ankle.
Ryan Bradley could only make 18th last Worlds skating on a broken foot.

Sometimes the boots are enough to do you in.

Sometimes your mental toughness is.

Planning to lose seems a flawed strategy to me. This year, arriving without your quad in your pocket, if you have landed a quad before seems a flawed strategy. You may not be ready to give your most passionate, bestest performance at Nationals, but you should at least have your tricks ready.

It's too bad that Dornbush scored over Miner. Then we could have sent Dornbush to Jr Worlds, Abbott to Worlds, and not given Aaron a spot there. It's too bad that Jeremy wasn't ready to skate his best, too.

But that's what it was.

[mskater93]

Urgh, no. Kanako Murakami won everything last year. Shen/Zhao won everything last year. Let's call it what it is: inconsistency.
If you're trained well, you should do well in your first competition as well as your last competition.
Yuna Kim peaked at TEB and then slumped and then peaked at the Olympics, was that her plan?

And how did Murakami skate? Was she consistent through the season or did she build up to her best performance of the season? Same for S/Z = I thought their Olympic LP was a bit of a letdown from what they had previously done. And you personally know that it is inconsistency of the skater versus training plan exactly how? Are you involved in developing the training plan for these skaters? If you are, would you like to explain their plan?

I actually AM a competitive skater and I DO plan my periodization training to peak for Adult Nationals. I competed the weekend before (real) Nationals and I put out a program that was probably in the 60-70% range of my best. It was enough to get the kinks out and see where I need to focus on improvement before Sectionals (February) and Nationals (April) (which is where I want to perform at my best). I knew I wasn't peaking at that competition (nor was I close) nor did I focus that hard on it so that I would be peaking. Trying to maintain that level for an entire season tends to lead to burn out and overuse injuries.
I suggest you go google search periodization training to understand before you just dismiss it as "inconsistent skater" out of hand.

[FlattFan]

Murakami skated well enough to win everything. Her performance level was the same for both JGPF and JW.

S/Z did just as well between GPF and the Olympics except the freak drop in the lift. That could happen anyday.

There have been dominant skaters who won everything. Those are rare. The rest are just inconsistent and blame it on training to peak. Whatever. I understand injuries and boots problem, but the other part about peaking is just ridiculous.

Rachael Flatt had several great LPs in the fall. During the practice this week, she did a few clean 7 triples LP. It just happened that she didn't do as well on ice during her actual LP. She's consistent, she would be the same in the fall as well as in March (without injury)

[seniorita]

^I suppose with peak we mean having the skate of their lives, or of the season, not that in the rest competitions they cant do well.
Yuna and Lysacek, did well in Teb and Gpf each and won the event, but in the Olympics day, they did even better and won Olys.The opposite side is that Lysacek got one bad performance all season and that was at US Nationals, and he got it off his system. A bad skate doesnt happen often in well prepared athletes so it was probable it wouldnt happen again. Like Flatt had the bad skate at GOF this year.
The most spectacular is that you may peaaaaaak once in your life time and won Olys or Worlds without having won another medal before!
Anyway if I can judge from gymnastics, you cannot jump/perform the same in every competition even if you are not injured or well prepared..this is how i understand peak.

[Layfan]

Rachael Flatt had several great LPs in the fall. During the practice this week, she did a few clean 7 triples LP. It just happened that she didn't do as well on ice during her actual LP. She's consistent, she would be the same in the fall as well as in March (without injury)

I know, I was just teasing.

Actually I don't really have an answer the peaking question because I'm not an athlete. In Rachael's case I think she planned to be on form all year long but had that set back with her injury. So she wasn't well trained at the GPF but she was well trained for nationals and now she hopes she'll be even more well trained at worlds.