Page 1 of 4 1 2 3 4 LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 55

Thread: 2011 US Ladies World Team: What to expect?

  1. #1
    Down With It
    Join Date
    Jul 2003
    Location
    USA
    Posts
    13,543

    2011 US Ladies World Team: What to expect?

    Up and down, and up again she goes. Just when we think she's done, she reappears. 3rd, 9th, 1st, 10th and now 1st again. Yeah, you know who I'm talking about.

    So Czisny claims she is a new skater now. Certainly seems so, since she's managed to win GPF and Nats, two competitions with very strong fields. Also looked focused and ready to go, even if she was freaking out inside. She wins and goes to worlds again as the national champ. Now SHOW us that you're this new skater by not crumbling under the pressure when expectations are raised.

    _________________________

    More importantly is the significance that the 2011 world team is the SAME EXACT TEAM that we sent to LA in 2009- Czisny as national champ and Flatt in 2nd. But the circumstances could not be more different. In 2009, it really was all about Flatt and Czisny lucked into the title. Many raised the stink that Zhang should have gone instead. But this time- it's Czisny that seems to be the headliner, as the walking definition of "inconsistent" has actually been the MOST consistent of the US ladies this season. Czisny is the one who scored close to 180 at the GPF. Czisny is the one who carries the title and is expected to do well at worlds. Expectations for her have shot up with this newfound success. OTOH, Flatt has dealt with injury, and also some adversity as far as international judging goes. She had probably her worst competition ever at the GPF, but bounced back well at Nats to squeak past Nagasu and onto the world team. But this time Rachel is clearly the underdog, and expectations for her seem to be lower than they were in 2009.

    So what do we expect? Do you think we have a shot at 3 spots? What do both need to do to stay in the top 10? If Czisny skates at worlds like she did at Nats, does she have a shot at a medal? And what about Four Continents? Can't wait to hear your thoughts on this one.

  2. #2
    - * - blue_idealist's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Location
    Canada
    Posts
    2,771
    I have a feeling that both ladies will be somewhere in the middle of the top 10 - two spots for 2012. With no 3-3s Alissa's going to have to skate an error-free competition, even better than she did at Nationals (she turned out of the 3loop) to get a medal. She may be able to do this but I'm not sure. You never know which Alissa will show up and we've had the good one a few times in a row, but still, you never know with her. Even if Rachael skates completely clean in both programs I think the best she can hope for is like 5th. The international judges don't seem willing to give her high PCs (which they are probably right about, as she is sometimes boring, although she did skate quite passionately to East of Eden). I think Rachael is much better off with this new SP though than the old one.

  3. #3
    Custom Title
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Posts
    409
    If Alyssa skates clean, she should be in the top 10 easily. How high she is depends on if the triple-triple ladies land all their harder jumps (as well as Mao, the triple-axel girl). The odds are that she'll be ahead of some of them and behind others. Remember, she has beaten all four Japanese ladies at one competition or another, and nobody's seen YuNa yet. Unless she absolutely falls apart, she shouldn't be lower than 6th or 7th.

    Rachael, I don't know. I don't know why the judges dislike her so much, or if she has corrected the problem. She was faster and more musical this year, but it cost her some jump consistency. Still, barring a total disaster, she shouldn't be too low.

    With two clean skates, they will be about 6th and 10th (if everyone else skates clean) and probably a few notches higher if some of their competitors make mistakes. Alissa can definitely medal, but she needs some help.

  4. #4
    Custom Title
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Posts
    9,495
    I think the above two posts are probably realistic assessments of what our two ladies can achieve. There's always the unforeseen skate of a lifetime, like Rudy Galindo in 1996 or Holly Cook and Caryn Kadavy in the years they won world bronze, and one can hope for that, but looking at the abilities and best efforts of the other world ladies, one can't get too fixated on something glittering coming home with Alissa or Rachael. Nonetheless, one can hope! At this stage that's usually the best approach, because if we could really predict the future, it wouldn't be the future. What's likely isn't always what happens.

  5. #5
    Like subtlety in ice dancing Serious Business's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Posts
    1,452
    I'd like to remind everybody that Alissa had the highest total score in international competition of any woman competing this year. It's a score that would've put her in the top 5 of the latest few Worlds competitions (podiuming in some of them), and that is ignoring the fact that spiral sequences (which Alissa excels at, alas) have been eliminated in SP and lowered in score in the FS this season (her current PB + her spirals would put her on the podium in any year of the COP). She is absolutely a podium threat if she can hold it together. She doesn't need help from the other skaters.

    People are underestimating her because she doesn't do a 3/3 or a 2ax/3t to go for that vaunted 7 triple program, but they're ignoring that the +GOEs she gets on her spins, compared to the GOEs other top skaters get, adds up to about an extra 3toe in the FS, and virtually upgrades her 2t in the short to a 3. With Alissa attempting 6 triples in the FS this year, she is going for a 7 triple program in the scores. She can win even if everybody skates perfectly.

  6. #6
    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2003
    Location
    Detroit, Michigan
    Posts
    28,249
    Actually, I think all these questions appliy just as well to the other ladies in the field. Will Mao dominate or crumble? Will Yu-na be the Olympic Yu-na or the "I haven't skated in a year, changed coaches, fooled around making money with shows and productions" Yu-na. Any of the top European ladies can easily out-Alissa Alissa in terms of unpredictability,

  7. #7
    she takes the audience on her journey of emotions Layfan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Mexico City
    Posts
    3,640
    Honestly, there's only so much discussion one can have about whether Alissa and Rachael will bring it at worlds. We just can't know. We can only hope.

    Easier to have a discussion about how we think they'll do if they bring it.

    If Alissa brings it, I think we have to consider her a medal contender. After all, she did win the GPF. It's hardly in the bag even if she skates clean - it depends much how the others do, especially the Kim and Japanese girls.

    I think Mathman is right: These worlds are unpredictable all around. Nobody's seen Yuna. Mao has been up and down and she was lovely and great at nationals but couldn't defend her title. Miki is always up and down. Murakami is new. Carolina and Kiira are always question marks. So is Cynthia Phaneuf.
    Last edited by Layfan; 01-30-2011 at 09:09 PM.

  8. #8
    Like subtlety in ice dancing Serious Business's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Posts
    1,452
    Alissa won GPF without skating clean, too.
    Last edited by Serious Business; 01-30-2011 at 09:13 PM. Reason: Fumie Suguri ruined my stat

  9. #9
    she takes the audience on her journey of emotions Layfan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Mexico City
    Posts
    3,640
    ^That's true but there were major mistakes by key players, especially in the short. Her mistake in the free was really minor but wasn't enough to win the free skate. Had Miki Ando been clean, she would have won.

    I'm a huge fan but Alissa really just needs to concentrate on having a focused and good skate. Let the placements be what they are. The last thing she should do is get ahead of herself and think too much about medaling.

  10. #10
    Custom Title
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Posts
    410
    Does anyone know if YuNa is going to be at 4CC? That should be a good peek at her level of readiness. I think the US ladies should be in the top 10 mix, I'm not too worried.

  11. #11
    she takes the audience on her journey of emotions Layfan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Mexico City
    Posts
    3,640
    Yuna has said she will not be at 4CC.

    Anyone know if Mirai has confirmed that she's going? She absolutely should. She should train hard and go and go for an awesome skate that would restore her faith in herself and her coach's faith in her.

  12. #12
    Custom Title Joesitz's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2003
    Location
    New York City
    Posts
    20,185
    I don't think top 10 will be a problem for Cizny and Flatt. Both can acquire high points. Try to analyze it.

    Given Yuna and Mao hold a gold and silver in whatever order but remember both have faltered last season.

    Ando looks good and the cutesy wootsie one with the two Flips will also place.

    No Lady in Europe has the potential, imo.

    That makes 4 possible spots taken up

    If Alissa and Rachael can not fill up 5-8, 6-7, who can?

  13. #13
    Custom Title
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Posts
    410
    Thanks for the YuNa update!

    Mirai BETTER go! It's her World's - she needs to have a great skate!

  14. #14
    Long live the Queen! YunaBliss's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Posts
    444
    Quote Originally Posted by ivy View Post
    Does anyone know if YuNa is going to be at 4CC? That should be a good peek at her level of readiness. I think the US ladies should be in the top 10 mix, I'm not too worried.
    Phil Hersh asked the same question to Peter Oppegard, who confirmed that the plan is for Yuna to go straight to the Worlds.

    [url]http://twitter.com/olyphil[/url]

  15. #15
    Like subtlety in ice dancing Serious Business's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Posts
    1,452
    Quote Originally Posted by Layfan View Post
    ^That's true but there were major mistakes by key players, especially in the short. Her mistake in the free was really minor but wasn't enough to win the free skate. Had Miki Ando been clean, she would have won.
    Alissa's mistakes in the FS at the Grand Prix Finals weren't minor. She had a wonky landing in her 3flip, causing a UR call. She had another wonky landing in her 2axel, causing her negative GOE. But worst of all, she completely forgot the second and third jumps of her 3toe/2toe/2loop combo. Together, those mistakes cost her about 6 points.

    On the other hand, Miki Ando skated her FS perfectly. Her mistakes on the technical elements (3loop downgrade + wonky landing, fall on 3flip + downgrade, wonky spin) in the SP cost her around 10 points. If they both skated perfectly, Alissa would still have won, just by a smaller margin.
    Last edited by Serious Business; 01-30-2011 at 09:54 PM. Reason: To make it clear what I'm responding to; it's 6 points not 5 points for Alissa, I forgot that her 3toe lost points for being a sequence

Page 1 of 4 1 2 3 4 LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •