View Poll Results: Can she win JW?

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Thread: Can a clean Agnes win JW?

  1. #1
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    Can a clean Agnes win JW?

    Regardless of how the others do, can Agnes win JW?

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    Sure. I don't think she's the favorite, though. She would have to skate clean, which she hasn't all season.

  3. #3
    More or less: more is more sequinsgalore's Avatar
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    What jump layout will she have? She will have to do a triple loop in the short, so she either has to scratch her triple lutz or do it in combination. Is Agnes consistent with her triple loop? I know she fell on it in the long at Nationals.

    And she'll have to be clean or close to clean in the long. But yes, I do think she has a chance for gold if she's clean and Sotnikova or Tuktamysheva perhaps makes a few mistakes (they will be favorites, right?), assuming they'll be there. Russian Junior Nationals is this week.

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    The ladies field is so deep. All 3 US entrants (Agnes, Christina, Courtney) have a good chance to medal, but they have to compete against Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva, the 3rd Russian entrant (they are all strong), Shoji, and Li all of whom are capable of being on the podium with good skates. I wouldn't be surprised if the podium ended up being 1 girl from each of the US, Russia, and Asia, which girls that will be though is anyone's guess. I think Adelina will definitely medal though, Liza I'm not so sure. Shoji has high PCS but a lot will depend on if she gets hammered with URs or not. Li is strong in the jump dept but not so strong in PCS. The 3 US entrants are all pretty comparable and jumping is the strength for all 3. It will really probably just come down to who skates clean and who doesn't. Also Hicks is great but she'll skate really early in the SP, so a clean SP is especially crucial for her so she doesn't take herself out of the running.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by sequinsgalore View Post
    What jump layout will she have? She will have to do a triple loop in the short, so she either has to scratch her triple lutz or do it in combination. Is Agnes consistent with her triple loop? I know she fell on it in the long at Nationals.

    And she'll have to be clean or close to clean in the long. But yes, I do think she has a chance for gold if she's clean and Sotnikova or Tuktamysheva perhaps makes a few mistakes (they will be favorites, right?), assuming they'll be there. Russian Junior Nationals is this week.
    Clean Agnes. So yes, she will have a loop in the SP.
    Assuming Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva will both be clean, can Agnes beat them?

    Assuming Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva, Agnes, Christina, Hicks, Shoji, Li all deliver 7 triples LP. who will win?

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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    Clean Agnes. So yes, she will have a loop in the SP.
    Assuming Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva will both be clean, can Agnes beat them?

    Assuming Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva, Agnes, Christina, Hicks, Shoji, Li all deliver 7 triples LP. who will win?
    I'd have to go with Sotnikova. But if Tuktamysheva does a triple axel then her.

  7. #7
    More or less: more is more sequinsgalore's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gmyers View Post
    I'd have to go with Sotnikova. But if Tuktamysheva does a triple axel then her.
    But Tuktamysheva has never attempted the jump before in competition before - she hasn't even been doing her triple lutz-triple toe loop combination lately. But if she's clean, she's also a contender for gold.

    Though does anyone know why Sotnikova pulled out of Junior Nationals? Is she injured or simply guaranteed a spot and doesn't need/want to go?

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    According to what was posted in the Russian Nationals thread, doesn't want/doesn't need to is the answer.

    If everyone goes clean, then yes, Sotnikova. Best skating skills of the bunch, good spins (significantly better than Gao & Tuktamysheva) and the hardest jump content.
    Last edited by oleada; 02-02-2011 at 08:51 PM.

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    Agnes? Mmm, I'm not so sure. Her skating skills are weak compared to Liza and Adelina, her jump content is not the hardest and she didn't skate two clean programs whole season.
    She has a chance, yes, but only if both Liza and Adelina will have mistakes. Liza had some problems with her SP lately, but she is strong LP skater and her 3-3 is OK, she did it several times today at the warm up. Adelina has much more than only the hardest jump content, I think she can win even with mistakes

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    Both girls are planning 7 triples LP. Adelina flutzes. Agnes' jumps look much better. I think Agnes can win on TES. The question is, can she win on PCS as well.

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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    Clean Agnes. So yes, she will have a loop in the SP.
    Assuming Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva will both be clean, can Agnes beat them?

    Assuming Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva, Agnes, Christina, Hicks, Shoji, Li all deliver 7 triples LP. who will win?
    That is why this is so exciting! But I think if those other girls are clean with 7 triples, Li won't be on the podium. She's lovely but still very junior at this point. Highest PCS will go to Adelina and then Risa and Liza, with the American ladies all bunched up behind them probably. I actually think the odds of medaling might be higher for Christina and Courtney than Agnes honestly, they are more consistent with their jumps and both seem to have the 3f-3t mastered which should help their situation. Risa can challenge for silver (or gold if Adelina makes mistakes) if she can get her jumps rotated, her PCS marks at the JGPF were quite high and her maturity and overall skating is very impressive, and she also doesn't have any obvious weak areas - she has the 3s-3t and 2a-3t, her spins get lvl 4s and have nice positions, her FW is good, programs well choreographed. I think she could play spoiler here.

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    Not if Sotnikova is also clean.

  13. #13
    The field will be extremely deep, so it will be hard to accomplish.

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    Agnes has a good shot at it. Why not? Her faltering days are now in the past.

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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    Both girls are planning 7 triples LP. Adelina flutzes. Agnes' jumps look much better. I think Agnes can win on TES. The question is, can she win on PCS as well.
    And Agnes occasionally lips, so that's kind of a moot point. Aside from the flutz, Adelina's jumps are excellent and her lines, flexibility and basics are the best in the field. I'm not so sure Agnes could get the PCS.
    Last edited by oleada; 02-05-2011 at 12:19 PM.

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