View Poll Results: Can she win JW?
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What would Kim have to gain? If she wins another few World titles and defends her title in Sochi she would be virtually the unanimous greatest ever. She would be the first women to defend an Olympic title since Witt in the 80s as well. In terms of finances and fame she has nothing more to gain I suppose, but from a historical perspective she has alot.
I see more chance of Czisny hanging on for Sochi at 26 than Ando. Once the Japanese get a 2nd up and comer to go with Murakami I predict the Japanese would be ready to dump Ando from the World team, as long as Asada stays reasonably strong. I doubt she will let it get to that point though and will retire after this season, especialy if she wins a bronze or silver at Worlds, so will wisely get out before she gets dropped from the Japanese World and Olympic teams and make lots of money in shows and other ventures in Asia as a former World Champion and very beautiful/personible young women. Skating wise is pretty much hitting her peak (or as much as she can hit at this point in her career, her real peak was 2007) and the soft post Olympic year is giving her one last chance for some success and I am sure she knows this. Her jumps wont get any better at this point, and she already doesnt do the triple-triples anymore, she is maxing out what she can now with backloaded and smart COP jump layout, good quality jumps, and inflated rep PCS. Her artistry, spins, and spirals will never be more than mediocre at this point. There is really nowhere to go for her after this season, especialy as the up and comers emerge, and the other star vets begin skating more regularly/consistently again. Czisny though seems to be a late bloomer so could conceivably hang on for Sochi. I am sure she wants to skate at an Olympics, regardless of her chances for a medal. Unlike Ando there is still lots of room to grow in her skating and she has a variety of positive assets that could keep her in consideration in the coming years.
Last edited by pangtongfan; 02-09-2011 at 11:21 PM.
I don't see how Alissa hangs on till Sochi. I can't see the the US still being mediocre for another 3 years. With Nagasu, Gao, Zawadski and perhaps Courtney Hicks coming up it will be brutal competition in the coming years. Someone is bound to break through and become a real contender. Who knows there might be a 13, 14 year old unknown that might make the team or become the next great american skater.
I doubt Mao will be around for Sochi, either, or Akiko. I wouldn't be surprised if the team for Sochi was Murakami, Shoji, and some other young skater, maybe Imai. I feel like Mao, Miki, and Akiko are all past their primes at this point and there are always so many strong ladies skaters in Japan.
Alissa might continue to skate until 2014 but a lot will probably depend on if her body will hold out that long. If she medals at Worlds and has another good season next year, maybe defends her US title, I could see her just ending her career on a high note. Their are strong younger skaters coming up that have stronger jumps and more technical content than Alissa but are also artistic, so even if she really has become consistent, she's not a shoo-in to make an Olympic team 3 years from now, when she'll be 26 and most definitely past her prime. Who knows though.
Great point. Ando, Czisny, Kostner may be winning lots of medals right now, but while they may compete in 2014, I'd be surprised if any of them were favorites to medal at that point in time. Adelina, Liza, Risa, Zijun all have a lot of potential to be medal threats in 2014, and they have the technical content that skaters like Czisny and currently Kostner and Ando don't have, so if they were competing at senior worlds, they'd rely on their tech for them to do well. But at junior worlds, they know they have to work on their artistry as well and try to get the complete package.
Originally Posted by BackStage Barbie
You know, 3-4 years ago there were Meissner, Zhang, Nagasu, Flatt, Wagner and hype around them. They were expected (at least some of them) to be contenders in 2010, but it didn't happen and now 23 y.o. Alissa is the best American skater. And I don't expect Gao or Zawadzki to be the next big thing, they still have too much to work on and 3 years before Sochi may not be enough. Nagasu has a potential, IMO she is the only American who has a real chance, but with her you just never know. And maybe if Alissa stays until Sochi (BTW, why not? She will be the same age Slutskaya was when she won her second World title) she will still have a good chance to make the team
Originally Posted by Jammers
I think Czisny could be the U.S's best hope for a medal in Sochi as funny as that sounds now. Nagasu and Agnes could also have potential to be medal contenders for 2014. While I definitely see Gao on future U.S world teams, especialy once they get back 3 spots, but I am not sure I see her as a future World or Olympic medalist. She looks more like a future Nikidinov type, solid but not truly elite.
It is true though that after Nationals 2008 people would have expected the U.S to atleast be in medal contention (even if probably not favored for gold) at the 2010 Games. Well you could argue Nagasu was in medal contendtion I guess but sort of not really, I mean she skated her best performances ever and was about 3 falls from the bronze.
I really hope not. Except for Mirai i don't see the skaters from the last 3 years or so being contenders for Sochi. It might fall to the younger girls or even some who are still in Juniors. I'm interested to see how Courtney Hicks develops. John Nicks raves about her being fearless. That's something an american girl hasn't had since Michelle Kwan.
Last edited by Jammers; 02-11-2011 at 11:55 AM.
3 years is a long time away. I mean, look at Fumie Suguri. I think Czisny may continue to do well for another season or maybe two, but the wear and tear on her body will certainly start to affect her soon. Also, right now she is able to win stuff with her limited technical content, but that's because the field is a bit depleted where Miki is all tech and no artistry, as is Rachael, Mao's tech is on a bit of a vacation, Kanako is really young and doesn't get huge PCS yet, Yuna and Laura have yet to compete, and Kiira, Carolina and Mirai are all unpredictable.
Originally Posted by pangtongfan
The skaters on the junior ranks now have the combination of great technical content and artistry - Adelina, Risa, Zijun, Courtney are all examples of this.
Liza and Christina are not the most artistic yet, but give it another year or two and they might surprise a lot of people. Yuna was skating a lot like Christina when she was 16 - not great lines/stretch in her spins and spirals, prone to running out of steam a bit at the end of her FS, not the most outwardly expressive. Then over the course of the next 2 seasons that totally changed and she was very artistic and improved her spins/stretch a lot on top of maintaining her great jumps and even improved her stamina and consistency in the FS.
I know the focus may be on skaters like Adelina and Courtney now, but sometimes these things have a funny way of working out. Yuna was great as a junior but nowhere near as good or "complete" a skater as Mao. Even in 06-07, Mao was heavy edge due to Yuna's stamina issues in the FS. It wasn't until 07-08 that Yuna and Mao were really neck-in-neck, and then by 08-09 Yuna had surpassed Mao, and the gap has just widened since then. I wouldn't be surprised if Christina and Liza surprise in coming seasons and really make a splash. Keep in mind that Christina has grown 3-4 inches and filled out since last season and has not lost any of her jumps, and even successfully upgraded to a 3f-3t which she has hit and fully rotated at least once in every competition she's been in this season. That's pretty impressive considering how we've seen growthspurts affect some skaters careers majorly in recent years (Caroline, Kimmie, Mirai - although she has bounced back since). If Liza can start doing the 3a in competition, who knows. She also debuted a 2a-3t combo at junior nationals last week and it was gorgeous. And then there are skaters like Laura, Alissa, and Joannie, who have been around for awhile but don't achieve their full potential until much later.
It's just my 2 cents but I see Adelina and Courtney being very similar to 14/15 year old Mao at this point, while Liza and Christina remind me more of Yuna from 14-16 and have plenty of time to develop the "full package" and have such solid jumps that they can afford to put more time into the rest of their skating.
I disagree on quite a few points.
Risa Shoji is definitely not a great technician - she's a chronic underotator, see her protocols. She's also quite dry when skating. Potential, but who knows when she's still so tiny and her jumps have such questionable rotation.
Aside from the flutz, Adelina's jumps are much more technically secure and have better technique than Mao's ever did. As a young kid, Mao was super charming on the ice with this floaty quality that I simply don't see in Adelina - I would say that selling the program is her weakest point right now. I'm not sure why you'd compare Courtney to Mao or Yu-Na at this point, when she's completely untested internationally, when Yu-Na and Mao at her age were already JW medalists. And, IMO, Yu-Na Kim always had better basics than Gao. They do have similar strengths and weakness, but Yu-Na always had the it-factor which Gao is really lacking.
Liza has HUGE potential, but she needs to work on her lines and spins, which I'm not sure will happen with Mishin. She's definitely got charisma, and can really sell a program - more so than Adelina at this point.
In any case, every year there are a crop of juniors that everyone predicts will dominate, blah, blah blah, and then growth spurts hit in the most unexpected ways. A few years ago, everyone thought Mirai/Caroline/Rachael/Ashley would be dominating, and well, that didn't happen. Who knows? Anyway, I'm not sure that why because one skater's career followed a certain path, that others after him or her will follow the exact same way. Better to just wait and see how they develop.
Risa Shoji isn't really that tiny. She looks pretty grownup compared to the other ladies out there. And her PCS speak to the quality of her skating. Her URs are an issue but she can work through them like Mirai did. At 14, she is very impressive. I wouldn't underestimate her.
Also, I'm not so sure Yuna had "it" quality while competing on the JGP. She really did not have much facial expression at all. Also, Mao's jumps were bigger/higher than they are now when she was 14. The Canadian commentators said she was the best 14 year old skater they'd ever seen when she won Jr Worlds in 05. I think she and Adelina are very similar in terms of strengths and weaknesses.
But it didn't really affect Irina and some other skaters. I agree about Alissa's limited content, her technique is scary, but somehow she is able to land her jumps now and it's not like other US ladies have perfect technique. And she is much better than skaters like Flatt, Gao, Zawadzki in everything else.
Originally Posted by silverlake22
This combo not really new for Liza, she already did it last season
Originally Posted by silverlake22
When Liza first came to Mishin 3-4 years ago, she couldn't spin and skate, she could only jump high but in such a strange way, so her progress is amazing already and I think it's not an end. Also it's not like Mishin's younger students have bad spins or something, Medvedeva and Ogoreltseva are both very good spinners, have strong basics, not only jumps. They learned it in Mishin's group, so I think Liza will be OK.
Originally Posted by oleada
That's my point about Alissa though, for now, she's fine with her content as is. But so many of these juniors have 3-3s and are attempting 7 triples in their FS already, and are strong in the spins and artistry department as well. I know puberty might eliminate some of them, but not all I don't think. Alissa would never beat Mao or Yuna if they all went clean, just because those two are strong artistically and nearly match Alissa in the spins and spirals but have big jumps and high technical content on top of it. I think by 2014 we'll see a lot more skaters who are well-rounded like Mao and Yuna. I mean Alissa is a lovely skater, but I honestly would be a little disappointed if she won the Olympics in 2014, just because it would mean skating has not made any strides technically in several decades. I mean, an Olympic champion whose hardest combination is a 3lz-2t? I hope not. Now if Alissa can start doing 3lz-3t, 2a-3t, or 3a between now and 2014, then I'd have no issues with her winning. I'd really just prefer to see a champion who has it all - the technical goods and the artistic goods.
Originally Posted by Lucky Star
I don't expect her to win any medal at the Olympics, but I think in the US she will still be more than competitive, because US youngsters all have their weaknesses. Gao and Zawadzki both have weak skating skills and it's the real problem, it's really hard to fix, and they are not near Alissa's level in presentation. I don't really expect them to improve that much for Sochi, especially Zawadzki, not with her current coach.
I agree. And if Allissa is the best skater that the US team has entering 2014 that does not bode well. I expect the quality of skating to keep getting better as these younger girls mature. Just look how much better the skating got from the start of the season until now. Give it another couple years and we will see a lot of new stars on the scene.
I do think Gao and Zawadzki will improve. They both want to be competitive and other than speed, have very nice jumps and spins. ( I actually don't think they are super slow.) I am also excited about Courtney. She seems to have competitive fire. She has work to do presentation wise, but so do the young russian skaters. You never know what will come about in three years, who will improve and who will struggle. The junior skaters right now could go either way.
Originally Posted by Lucky Star