Last edited by SubRosa; 02-02-2011 at 02:21 PM.
I'm just going to predict the top three.
3) Reynolds, Sawyer, Abbott, Mroz, Mahbahnoozadeh, Hanyu, Ten, Rippon.. could be any of them or maybe one of the Chinese guys, I don't know much about them. I think it's safe to say Kozuka and Takahashi are kinda in a league of their own and Kozuka's been doing better than Takahashi lately.
3) Suzuki, Czisny, or Phaneuf
I don't think Rachael and Mirai will medal since they haven't been skating their best lately. You never know though.
..but don't count out Lawrence/Swiegers, Takahashi/Tran, Denney/Barrett, Evora/Ladwig, and Duhamel/Radford.. lol I've listed almost everybody there as potentially winning a medal, I just realized.
2) Virtue/Moir (if they're there)
3) Crone/Poirier or Shibutanis
If Virtue and Moir aren't there, I think C/P and the Shibutanis will take the silver and bronze, but I'm not sure in what order. I want Weaver and Poje to win a medal too, but the Shibutanis have been skating really well.
I can't predict. My prediction has jinxed my favorites before. What I want to say is that this time 4CC is like a world championship without Patrick Chan. Go everybody!
I simply can't predict...I have too many favourites...( Oh, poor me )
How close? The question is not with Davis/White win, but how close will Virtue/Moir be? Not only the season away from competition, but the SD levels playing such a significant role. It took D/W nearly half a season to get really comfortable with them. Do V/M have a leg up (no pun intended) seeing their skate-mates, or do they suffer more by not being out there? How close will the Shibs vs Crone/Poirier vs Weaver/Poje be? Both W/P and the Shibs had their season best skates at Nationals. Both have one victory over the other. Both got their silver medal in part due to a missing team at Nationals (V/M and S/B). But it definitely feels like the Shibs are on a more dramatic upswing. Do Chock/Zuerlein have enough to keep it close? Will Shpilband/Zoueva be allowed to leave the Kiss n Cry during the ice dance competition?
Can Rippon and Abbott demonstrate why they should've been named to the Worlds team? Can Reynolds land his ninety-thousand quads and remind us he could be a force for the rest of the decade? Can Sawyer take his Nationals momentum and turn it into something real internationally? Can Takahashi right the ship and actually be the world champion we all believe him to be? Will Kozuka sneak through the chaos and state for the world: "Watch out!!" Can Hanyu make his next generation statement?
Asada or Ando? Who will the Japanese federation choose? Does anyone suspect that so clearly supporting Ando over Asada at Japanese Nationals will come back to bite them in the posterior? Can Phaneuf make a statement? Can Suzuki charm us?
Once more, unto the breach, Pang and Tong. One more chance to skate like the reigning world champions you are. One more chance to demonstrate that you should indeed be on the podium. Not here. At worlds. Because S/S are revitalized. K/S have the season's best program. And V/T are hungry after lesser partners and are working hard to devour the figure skating world whole. Nothing less than a 20 point victory will do.
- completely agree with Pairs. Only question is whether or not Lawrence/Sweigers will factor in somehow. They didn't have a great freeskate at Nationals, but otherwise would have been closer to MT/M.
- Ladies is probably right on as well. To be honest, haven't paid too much attention to ladies. Czisny could win if she has 2 clean skates.
- I really think the Men's event is wide open. It all depends who can skate clean. Reynolds will be looking for respect by putting down 2 great programs. If he does, he can be great and medal, but I think the Japanese (perhaps both) will win.
For dance, Davis and White and Virtue and Moir will definitely finish 1 and 2. We just don't know what order. I think V/M are simply superb technically, and have the edge over D/W in the best of times. This is not the best of seasons for V/M, so we just won't know until we see them. These 2 teams are light years ahead of the competition at 4CC. For 3, 4, and 5, any of the 3 teams could medal. Based on Nationals results, Shibutani's would win. C/P and W/P were virtually tied at Nationals. It was so close. C/P may be champions, but I think most of the world see V/M as the #1 Canadian Team. Internationally, C/P and V/M have also been very close. If every team skate clean and has PB, which I hope they do, then I'm not sure how everything will fall for #3, #4, #5.
Every time one of these prediction threads come up , I feel I just can't wrap my brain around the situation. I'm going - On the one hand... But on the other hand..all the while feeling like an octopus , and there still aren't enough hands to cover all the possibilities...Then along comes pogue with one of his sets of questions , and it helps me to focus..somewhat.
I think it will be too close to predict between D/W and V/M for the same reasons NorthernDancers laid out. Since the beginning of the GP , when the GW marks seemed to be all over the place , Z/S 's teams seem to have gotten a good handle on what the judges are looking for. So V/M will have known very well what adjustments to make , and there's nothing questionable about their music. So I'm betting the one place where any sizeable gap could be opened up would be the FD . D/W have been skating really well , but I don't think they've quite made the Tango their own , which could lessen their advantage .
#3-#5 Oh,boy !..here, my preferences take over..I've felt all season that the only advantage C/P have had over W/P has been in the the FD program...and I suspect that's mainly a matter of taste. I've never been a fan of W/P's program, but I don't think C/P's program necessarily has more content. It has the Dean signature and the Dean rep. But his programs have not always swept judging panels away, and C/P don't bring any extra emotional oomph to it , while there's no question W/P can sell a program. But..here come the Shibs. They've been getting very good levels , and of the three couples , their programs are the most perfectly suited to them . Their expression cannot be faulted ,IMO, so I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them vault past both C/P and W/P at this competition. I don't say it's a sure thing, but I think it's a real possibility. ( Of all the programs we've seen this year ,P/B and Sh/Sh are the two sets of programs that have stood out to me as being perfect for the skaters )
I don't think C/Z can keep it close .
I think pogue's pairs picks could be pretty good, but I don't know if Y/C's emotional impact will be as strong outside of NA..and I confess I have a fond hope of Takahashi / Tran shaking things up and maybe sneaking on to the podium ( they're very polished and appealing ).
Still lost with the Ladies and Men..I do think it will be between Dai and Taka for the men, with a slight preference on my part for Dai..and beyond that ..??? ( a roll of the dice )... I hope to see Asada come back, but realize she's bravely tackled a project that may not be attainable in a year.. I hope for Alyssa, Cynthia, Akiko..pretty much equally..so I guess the upside is, I'll be pretty difficult to disappoint.
I don't know what to say about Miki ( I don't want to go into a Morozov rant) I feel at best, neutral about her .
Last edited by colleen o'neill; 02-04-2011 at 02:35 PM.
I can't believe how many top competitors are going to be a 4CC this year!
It IS going to be a like a worlds before before worlds, except no Chan or Kim and the Euros of course.
The men and the ice dancers are the only ones that are fairly predictable. It's ice, but still I expect to see Daisuke and Kozuka battling for 1st and another D/W, V/M showdown. I can't wait to see V/M and see how they are doing. No predictions.
I'm still surprised that Kim Yuna didn't want to do this competition.
Ladies are hard to predict. Mao seemed on her way to getting it all back at Japanese nationals but not quite there yet. Miki is always formidable when she skates well but she's always hot or cold.
I bet Alissa is on the podium if she skates like she did at nationals.
I have a feeling Mirai and Rachael will do better than they did at nationals. I'd put Mirai on the podium if she finally skates her lights out there this year.
I wouldn't at all count Rachael out for the podium either. Let's not forget the Euro ladies are not there and Rachael is still one of the more reliable skaters out there.
Akiko is great but she's one of those who can't afford to make many mistakes if the others don't falter.
If Mirai and Alissa skate their best though, I'd put them above Akiko. Obviously, they need to be spectacular but I wouldn't even rule out Mirai or Alissa taking gold.
Let's just hope that Mirai manages to put her nationals disappointment on freeze and pours her heart into this competition. It's hard to know what her mindset will be.
I'm sure she didn't give much thought to 4CC coming into the season and thought she would be at worlds. So she can either be miserable and let her disappointment get to her or put everything she's got into finishing the season well and regaining the confidence of her coach and herself. I can only hope that Frank and Mirai are working well together.
Just please let her not mess up another spin. Hope she knows she still got loads of fans who wish her the best.
I never know what to expect from Cynthia.
None of these ladies can't be counted out though. That's what makes it so exciting
I hope Jeremy will show his stuff this competition. I'm really hoping and believing in a medal for him. Adam hopefully will keep it together too and can't be counted out.
It's impossible to predict who will falter and who won't. But if they DON'T falter than I predict, Mao and Miki/ Alissa/ Mirai on the podium. I think Alissa and Mirai can beat Miki based on spins and PCS but they can't afford mistakes.
I would predict Jeremy for the podium too if everyone is clean but I don't know how much his lack of a quad will hold him back this season. Can he beat Oda without a quad? I dunno...
Last edited by Layfan; 02-04-2011 at 04:49 PM.
Jeremy sort of has a quad....
Well, I can see Jeremy beating everyone with a clean skate except for Kozuka and Daisuke. It'll be interesting to see if Jeremy tries his quad. I miss him having a quad. But maybe he'll be busy trying to work out whatever kinks he had that led to his dismal nationals performance.
Yikes ! How did I forget about Mirai ? I love Mirai. Another one to wish to have a really good skate.
I really can't lose with the ladies...
Kexin Zhang from China is too young to compete here. Her listed age is 10/17/1995 which would have her as only 14 by the cutoff date of July 1st. After the whole third pair at Junior Worlds debacle, this is quite, well, suspicious.
Of the 3 American girls I see Rachael Flatt as the most consistent & likely to medal. She had an ankle problem most of this GP season. I think of our men that Rippon may be our best hope for a medal. Abbott falls apart too easily.
I'm surprised no one placed the Japanese team as medal contenders. During this season's GP, they placed the 3rd at the NHK Trophy, beating YANKOWSKAS / COUGHLIN, DENNEY / BARRETT, and ZHANG / WANG (one of the Chinese contenders); at the Cup of Russia, T/T beated Evora/Ludwig and was awarded a silver medal. In fact, they were the 1st alternate to the senior GPF and also became the JGPF champion.
Given that they have been skating as a pair team longer than Moore-Towers/Moscowitch, T/T could even be the silver medal contenders especially if Takahashi executes clean pair jump element, which admittedly is one of her weaknesses.
Here the only question is which team gains the bronze medal. As many of you mentioned, I agree that the three contening couples are C/P, W/P, and the Shibs. The latest season's GP results indicate that W/P (141.57) placed 2nd and the Shibs (136.93) placed the 3rd (NHK Trophy); the Skate American results are the followings:
2. Vanessa CRONE / Paul POIRIER CAN 149.08 2 2
3. Maia SHIBUTANI / Alex SHIBUTANI USA 144.81 4 3
4. Kaitlyn WEAVER / Andrew POJE CAN 142.34
As you can see from the above, the point differentials are very close among three teams. Also noteworthy are that the Shibs made mistakes on both competitions (short dance).
At the Canadian Nationals, C/P & W/P placed the 1st & the 2nd respectively with very closedly contested race again.
However, the Shibs skated clean short and long programs at the US Nationals and won decisively over their American rival C/Z. Their point differentials were also quite large (close to 20).
Based on the above, I have to say that the most improved team is the Shibs; the Shibs gained the highest technical marks during the nationals in that they received the level 4 on every element they executed. Neither C/P nor W/P achieved that feat.
C/P & W/P may have PCS advantage over the Shibs in that they have had more senior circuit exposure; however, the Shibs in my opinion has momentum going forward on their side. Hence my prediction is:
Mens & Ladies Competitions:
Too unpredictable for me to be able to evaluate meaningfully, IMHO.