Then it seems to me, it's just a wishlist, not very realistic.Originally Posted by Blades of Passion
Then it seems to me, it's just a wishlist, not very realistic.
It's a realistic wishlist! Notice how I didn't taken Chan off the podium, which of course will not happen.
While you certainly can't use scores from each countries national championship to predict worlds, it does give a vague indication of where the skaters are standing based on what they were able to deliver. While I don't see Patrick winning worlds by 30+ points I don't think the huge difference in scores it should be overlooked. The first four I think are a somewhat accurate state of Men's skating. For me the real question is from Ryan Bradley down, between a lot of those guys its a total toss up in terms of the result were going to see in the final two major competitions of the season, its going to pretty exciting
Blades, you are so generous.
I couldn't resist to make my wish. I wish Chan to win the Worlds. If skate god has time, give Abbott at least a 4CC medal.
Abbott didn't put quad in LP at the Nationals is a bit worrysome to me. Maybe he should go to Patrick's coach to get the tips on jumping quads.
Last edited by Bluebonnet; 02-04-2011 at 11:59 PM.
Well, your wishlist may realize in real life! Not all the best skater(s) win at the big stage, not all the time.It's a realistic wishlist! Notice how I didn't taken Chan off the podium, which of course will not happen.
OTOH, there are also completely surprise victories. Unexpected things will happen and those are what I love in competition. Certain skaters you even did not metion may win!
It's obvious to me you are biased(you are not the only one who is biased) and your points are usually controversial, sometimes entertaining.
I think Chan is the best skater of this season and his LP at Nats is what can be seen as the best of all the performances by current skaters regardless of his score.
Next to him is Kozuka. 2011 is his breakthrough year.
You said Takahashi deserves two time World champion but I am not sure of it this year. The difference of his TES and PCS is often so large, so apparent especially this year... I don't want to see him winning with just so so TES and huge PCS with his competitors bombing. It would be a bad competition. If he wins at 4CC or Worlds more deservingly, he needs to raise his TES with solid technique. Anyway, have you heard anything about his retirement?
Patrick's current coach is Christy Krall, in Colorado Springs.
I couldn't resist to make my wish. I wish Chan to win the Worlds. If skate god has time, give Abbott at least a 4CC medal.
Abbott didn't put quad in LP at the Nationals is a bit worrysome to me. Maybe he should go to Patrick's coach to get the tips on jumping quads.
Total scores of skaters is a gimmick set up by the ISU to make the Sport look more like other sports rather than a pagaent. I see some as unable to reach the last best score as much as I see new best scores. Those GoEs just don't score the same with different judges at different venues.
Yes, this year so far has proved that it's a wonderful choice of switch for Patrick Chan. Though I do still wish that Abbott remains with Yuka but I'm beginning to worry about his quad ability. Hope this worry will be proved unnecessary with more training next season.
I was very happy for Patrick when he changed coaches, howerver it came about. Nichol had been acting as a coach anyway and could take care of the presentation and choreography side while Krall was the jump specialist he needed and he has been very happy with her technology and program. Both women also have a more holistic program for him, taking into consideration all aspects of his life.
But I think one of the most important contributing factors to Patrick's stunning progress is also what sets Krall to be the opposite of Don Laws. She gets him all kinds of specialists as he needs, including Kathy Johnson the dancer who in turn induced inspiration and epiphany with Nureyev. This is one of the reasons I believed in Patrick's incredible potential when he was the favorite object of derision. What others saw as "inconsistency" I saw as progress. He had the techniques down and consistent in practice already and was learning to bring them to competition. I saw him conquering element by element during the first two competitions with multiple falls, as I explained in previous posts and knew it would all come together for him sooner than later. From his interviews and reports, I also know he looks for solutions and seeks help for each issue he has, whether technical or mental. Krall embraces and facilitates his search for mentors and insights. She has faith in him and seems to be always encouraging. I certainly don't see such qualities in all coaches, some of whom pririotize their own egos over their students' success.
Patrick Chan started out with a great coach (Osborne Colson) who totally believed in him, giving him all the important basics as a foundation so he could add skills easily later rather than trying to fast track to flamboyant jumps. With devoted and doting parents, supportive federation, and truly caring coaches, he is able to actualize his talents, hard work and ambitions. These are advantages not all competitve skaters enjoy.
Last edited by SkateFiguring; 02-07-2011 at 07:09 PM.
My guesslist for top 6 (in no particular order):
Chan
Takahashi
Oda
Kozuka
Joubert
Amodio
Oh, I forgot about this - I think I am more excited about this than worlds if Adam and Jeremy are in it.
It always amuses me to look at base scores: those are the things that can be most compared between competitions.
Here's a list of top SP base scores for skaters. Europeans, GPF, and US, Canadian and JPN nationals were used too. If I had both a nationals and a GPF score, I used the higher score.:
SP
Oda
TES 48.06 (GPF) 40.78 edge call on 3lz
Base 41.50 (GPF)40.50 Jpn Nats
Bradley
TES 43.89
Base 39.40
Kozuka
TES 39.43 (GPF) 47.06 Jpn Nats
Base 36.40 (GPF) 37.50 Jpn Nats
Van der Perren
TES 39.65
Base 37.20
Gachinski
TES 39.00
Base 37.10
Hanyu
TES 42.24 edge call on 3F (Jpn Nats)
Base 36.50 (Jpn Nats)
Joubert
TES 34.90
Base 36.50
Amodio
TES 40.75
Base 36.10
Verner
TES 36.38
Base 36.00
Brezina
TES 39.64
Base 35.90
Contesti
TES 36.57
Base 35.50
Dornbush
TES 35.32
Base 35.50
Liebers
TES 35.31
Base 35.50
Takahashi
TES 40.57 (GPF)33.88 edge call on 3lz jpn Nationals
Base 35.20 (GPF)34.00 Jpn Nationals
Berntsson
TES 33.05
Base 35.10
Messing
TES 37.61
Base 35.00
Fernandez
TES 32.00
Base 34.70
Rippon
TES 32.76 (problems with both his 3Lz and 3A)
Base 34.60
Sawyer
TES 41.59
Base 33.90
Abbott
TES 38.57 (36.83 NHK)(39.07 CoR, 45,3lz and 2t UR)
Base 33.40 (36.10 NHK)(36.10 CoR)
Russell
TES 36.36
Base 32.80 (3F+3Lo)
Preaubert
TES 32.33
Base 32.80
Chan
TES 44.48 (43.77 at GPF) 4t ur at GPF
Base 32.60 (only a 2A) (38.30 at GPF)
Miner
TES 35.66
Base 32.40 (did a 2t instead of a 3t on his combo)
Mahbanoozadeh
TES 34.42
Base 31.20 (underrotated his 3Lz
What's clear here is that even though he skated it well, Abbott's SP base scores this year haven't been great. And Oda has been knocking the SP out of the rink, technically. Bradley's technical base in the SP has also been impressive.
LP base scores, ordered by base score-again interesting as Abbott really hasn't managed a top notch base score all year in the LP. Chan & Kozuka are the technical class of the field.
Chan
TES 103.41 (Can Nationals) 86.94 (GPF)
Base 82.33 (Can Nationals) 78.22 (GPF)
Kozuka
TES 82.25 (GPF) 84.92 (Jpn Nats)
Base 76.46 (GPF) 4t ur 78.68 (Jpn Nats)
Bradley (US Nationals only)
TES 78.17 (step out on 2 4T's)
Base 78.64 (did not put 2T on one of the 4T's)
Joubert
TES 79.03 edge call on 3F
Base 76.48
Oda
TES 79.58 (GPF) (edge call on 3lz) 82.00 Jpn Nats
Base 75.33 (underrotated 4t) GPF 76.42 (Jpn Nats)
Dornbush
TES 83.27
Base 73.71
Menshov
TES 78.88
Base 73.27 (EUR)
Miner
TES 81.80
Base 73.17
Verner
TES 75.25 (Eur) 74.35 (edge call on 3f) (EUR) edge call both comps
Base 72.01 -67.54 (GPF)
Mahbanoozadeh
TES 77.40
Base 70.39
Van der Perren
TES 74.32
Base 69.21
Amodio
TES 72.89 (EUR) 70.40 (GPF) edge call on 3F both comps
Base 68.37 (EUR) 65.53 (GPF)
Rippon
TES 76.36
Base 67.96
Messing
TES 76.56
Base 72.66
Russell
TES 67.49
Base 67.83
Gachinski
TES 71.31
Base 67.80 (got SEQ calls on 2 combos)
Fernandez
TES 68.37
Base 67.73, ur 3S and 3t and 2t in combo
Takahashi
TES 58.20 (GPF) very UR 4F, very UR 3t on combo, edge call on 3lz, 76.91 (Jpn Nats)
Base 59.07, 67.45 (JPN Nats)
Liebers
TES 63.47 (edge call on 3F)
Base 66.96
Sawyer
TES 75.09
Base 66.23 (UR a 3F)
Preaubert
TES 67.46 edge call on the lutz
Base 65.93
Hanyu
TES 70.02 edge call on 3F (Jpn Nats)
Base 65.72 (Jpn Nats)
Abbott
TES 66.91 (67.15 nhk) 64.25 CoR
Base 61 (underrotated 3Lz, slightly UR 2T in a combo), no 3T on the lz combo) (61.92 nhk) (67.94 CoR)
Contesti
TES 61.60
Base 60.51
Brezina (Europeans Only)
TES 58.42
Base 59.23 (didn't do the 3T in his 3F combo)
Interesting sets of numbers! Thanks, Doris!
Bradley's base values were indeed impressive. The question is, "Can he keep it next month?" Jeremy has really been hurt by not having a quad. Joubert has usually had high base value skating. Oda, Chan, and Kozuka are the solid ones. Takahashi's base value was a shock to me. Van der Perren was amazing (though I've never liked him nor his skeleton).
Last edited by Bluebonnet; 02-09-2011 at 11:20 PM.
I always enjoy some good number crunching. Also interesting to me to see who was really able to up their scores in GoE. Chan - 20+pts! Dornbush, Rippon and Miner all have respectable GoEs in the LP- suppose that's partly score inflation at Nat'ls but still glad to see it!
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