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Thread: Hersh's View On What 2011 Worlds Means For US

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    Hersh's View On What 2011 Worlds Means For US

    Many of you must have already read this. But no Hersh loving at GS? That's not right. I'll start this:

    http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/spor...lysacek-1.html

    Hersh's talked about what US, he thought, will bring back from 2011 World Championship on all four disciplines. I think he's made many good points. In general, I agree with him.

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    I like pie. Tonichelle's Avatar
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    Hersh hasn't been well liked here since he stopped gushing about MK every blessed day.

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    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    I learned a new term, "off the schneid!"

    Hersh is probably right. We'll still be on the same old schneid after Worlds. Oh well.

    Alissa could conceivably medal if Yu-na and Mao break a leg. Bradley could conceivably...um, never mind.

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    "Hold an edge and look sexy!" museksk8r's Avatar
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    I agree with his assessments.

    I see US men only earning 2 spots at best; only 1 spot is also a possibility.

    3 spots should be easy for US ice dance; a medal for Davis/White.

    I think the US ladies can potentially earn 3 spots for next season; maybe even a medal for Czisny. Ladies as a whole have been very lackluster this season.

    US Pairs, like the men, 2 spots at best I'm thinking.
    Last edited by museksk8r; 02-05-2011 at 12:09 PM.

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    she takes the audience on her journey of emotions Layfan's Avatar
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    It's hard not to agree with Phil. He does make the point that Alissa could conceivably medal. But she could also not.

    Just hope the ladies get the third spot and the men somehow manage to hang on to three.

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    Tripping on the Podium
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    Team China will be weaker in the Pairs event this year, so the US pairs could finish in the top 10.

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    Thanks for the link! Czisny has been surprisingly consistent in this season, I hope that it will continue... It would be great to have 3 spots in ladies discipline again, as there are more than two good good US skaters.

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    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    You know, I have never gotten too excited about the question of winning those two or three spots for next year's worlds. So another skater gets to enjoy a trip abroad -- OK, that's nice.

    But I am beginning to see it differently. If you have no chance of of winning the championship or of placing on the podium, then the idea of finishing high enough, along with your teammates, to secure an extra spot next year is a laudable goal. It provides motivation and something to shoot for, while still falling within the compass of your ability.

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    she takes the audience on her journey of emotions Layfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    You know, I have never gotten too excited about the question of winning those two or three spots for next year's worlds. So another skater gets to enjoy a trip abroad -- OK, that's nice.

    But I am beginning to see it differently. If you have no chance of of winning the championship or of placing on the podium, then the idea of finishing high enough, along with your teammates, to secure an extra spot next year is a laudable goal. It provides motivation and something to shoot for, while still falling within the compass of your ability.
    That's the way I feel too. That's what I'm hoping for for the American ladies. What I really want is for Alissa and Rachael to have good skates. But it comes down to the same thing because if they skate well, I don't see how we won't get the third spot. GOOOOO Alissa and Rachael!!!

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    Custom Title heyang's Avatar
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    Well, he's certainly not a cheerleader for the US Pairs, although he's certainly correct. It would take the Germans and Chinese teams and others being elminated for the US Pairs to have a realistic shot at a medal this year. However, I thought there were some improvements overall.

    As for the 3rd spot, it's to the skaters' benefits to get a 3rd spot for the team, too. This year's US Ladies SP was so close - top 3 within 1 point of each other. Imagine if it was an Olympic year and the top 3 were within 1 point of each other after the free program and there were only 2 positions on the team???? especially if 3rd place and 2nd place ladies were the one's who didn't get that 3rd spot during the prior World's?

    Anyway, the ladies are certainly capable of earning a 3rd spot for the team if they both skate their best.

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    Like subtlety in ice dancing Serious Business's Avatar
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    Unlike Hersh, I think Alissa will medal at worlds. I've done extensive number crunchery in another thread on this, but Alissa has more than enough technical content (if she can deliver) and PCS to podium. It's just a matter of the new and improved consistent Alissa showing up one last time for the season. She might even win.

    The US men I can't see on the podium. Bradley has a huge technical advantage with his consistent quad. 1 in the SP and 2 in the FS will make a chunky difference in scores. But his PCS is going to be decimated by the international judges (even the US national judges put his PCS near the bottom of the top 10 men).

    I do think at least either Dornbush or Miner will make top 10.

    Davis/White are my bet to win worlds. Ice dancing programs need a gauntlet of international competitions to refine and improve. Even last season, Virtue/Moir needed a bunch of comps and losing to D/W once before they got their programs to Olympic gold perfection. With the missed training time and just one appearance at 4cc, I don't see it happening.

    US pairs have miserable prospects. Medals are not going to happen. But I find Evora/Ladwig very appealing, and their lifts are some of the best in the world. And Y/C's FS could be emotionally manipulative, but it totally works for me. Unlike past seasons when I don't care for the US pairs teams at worlds remotely, this season I can at least enjoy them while they get beaten by the Russians, Chinese and Germans.

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    she takes the audience on her journey of emotions Layfan's Avatar
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    I think Hersh thinks Alissa is capable of medaling too. But obviously it depends on how she does.
    The nice thing is that she's going in as the GPF champion. So hopefully that means that if she skates well, the judges are are willing to give her the PCS and all that stuff. She's not just going in as someone who finished 11th at her last worlds appearance.
    Last edited by Layfan; 02-05-2011 at 04:53 PM.

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    Like subtlety in ice dancing Serious Business's Avatar
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    Hersh did make a big point of saying there's only one medal for US at worlds and that would be Davis/White. So he is betting against Alissa, or at least trying to come up with an attention-grabbing line.

    Me, on the other hand, will go as far as to say that Alissa is one of the four women with a good shot at gold (the others are Miki, Mao and of course Yuna). That's my attention grabbing line.

    The GOEs Alissa gets on her spins are worth a 3t. That means if she rotates all her jumps, she's as good as having a 3/3 in the short and a 7 triple long. And she has the highest PCS of all the ladies this season. Yes, she has a history of splats (and even had some splatty skates this season like the gala that was just broadcasted). She has however figured out the champion skater's way of turning on that focus, cranking up that gear and other clichés, when it counts and did that a few times this season. She absolutely can do it again at worlds.

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    Alissa medalling at Worlds also depends on how others do. She isnt beating Kim unless Kim shows up in disaesterous shape. So lets look at the others. Mao's comeback is a work in progress, at Nationals she skated far better than she has all season but still lost to Ando by 10 points, albeit a visibly overscored (even for inflated National scoring) Miki Ando. If Mao gets back to about 90% or higher by Worlds, Czisny probably cant beat her, but any less than that and a perfect Czisny could. Miki Ando if she skates well in both programs probably cant lose to Czisny. Look at the LP at the GP final where Czisny skated about as well as she could and still lost to Ando without a triple-triple by about 6 points. And Miki Ando skated second as well due to her bad short program, imagine how much the gap might have been otherwise. Czisny might beat her by a bit in PCS, but with Worlds being in Japan I wouldnt beat on that (which is a crime as Czisny should blow Ando away in PCS but anyway), and will outscore her on spins and the spiral sequence. A clean Ando though will blow away a clean Czisny on jumps, her jump layout is much more valuable and her GOE will be much higher. That is already 3 to potentially keep her off the podium even if she skates well, though Mao is the most iffy one now. Beyond that Kostner nearly beat an inspired Czisny at the GP final with a novice jump layout (no lutz or flip) rather poorly executed with several mistakes. She is a bigtime threat even with her consistency issues. Murakami is also a threat, her scoring potential isnt that below Czisny and she is very consistent, and Korpi if she doesnt have a LP like Europeans will be very dangerous.

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    Like subtlety in ice dancing Serious Business's Avatar
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    You are wrong on almost all the facts you cited, pangtongfan:

    Miki Ando was the one who skated as well as she could in the FS at the GPF and still lost. She skated her planned elements perfectly, didn't get a single bad tech call, and no negative -GOE anywhere.

    People who think judges still leave room in the scores, especially within a single flight of skaters, must've stopped watching figure skating in the mid-90's.

    Alissa was the one who made multiple errors in the FS at the GPF: She stumbled on two jumps, but even worse, completely left out the 2t/2l on her 3t/2t/2l combo. Resulting in a massive loss of points from not doing the element and from getting a sequence discount on her second 3t. She still won the event.

    I already did the number crunching elsewhere. But the only way Miki Ando could've beaten Alissa at the GPF is if she had skated her SP perfectly, including a 3lutz/3loop with no UR call, and that rarely happens. These are all numerical facts.

    As for your bombastic speculations, I just plain don't care about them.

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