As for the Chinese sports apparatus, they would do well to start cleaning house in the Skating Federation. I see this last bit as a distinct possibility this year, with or without ISU sanctions, as this has become a national embarrassment in sporting circles.
You are contradicting yourself. First you said there's nothing happening at the grass roots level in China, and now you say in fact it's becoming a national embarrassment in the sports circles and that's going to lead to change -- how can this causal conclusion be drawn if you don't think grassroot sentiment "in sports circles" at least matter somewhat?
Secondly, I didn't say that changes have to happen slowly. I said changes will happen slowly if you only punish the athletes and allow the federation officials to wiggle out of blame. And I can see this happening if ISU only issued some terse statement that said there was age falsification and here's the punishment -- the Chinese skating federation officials will either blame some low-level clerk or the athletes themselves, but never take responsibilities for it themselves; they might even punish the athletes directly, remove them from the national team or whatever, to show that they are "firmly against age falsification" and thus decrease public pressure on themselves. Instead, I think ISU should really stand up to the political pressure and issue a statement that really place the blame where blame lies, which is that there has been systematic fraud, falsification, and pressure on athletes from the bureaucratic officials from a top, central level. They don't even have to specifically punish the officials, they just have to be brave enough to point their fingers. As several mentioned already, "face" is such a big deal in Chinese culture. If there is public shaming of the officials, so that they're losing face for the Chinese sports federation, for sure some officials will get replaced/demoted, and the rest will think twice in the future before pressuring young athletes to change their age.
ETA: As for fairness to other athletes and federations, let's look at precedence. In the 2002 SLC Olympics, when it was determined that there was cheating going on at the judging level, a second gold medal was awarded, but the original gold was not taken away from the Russian couple. Why? Because people felt the athletes were not at fault, even if with the exact same skates, had there not been the judging scandal, the Russian couple really only "earned" the silver medal. By the same logic, if ISU determines that it is really the federation officials' fault, and not individual athletes' fault, then maybe their medals shouldn't be taken away either, but rather to reward the other athletes who should have been rewarded with a medal, or a differently colored medal. And what happened to the judges found guilty, by the way? They were suspended, but other judges from their federations were not, even though the cheating was happening at some systematic level, with implications at the federation level. And some of that may be for a good reason, because maybe there were upright judges who maybe specifically resisted cheating in a corrupt federation, and you don't want to punish them in a blanket punishment.
Of course, there are other precedences, with somewhat different outcomes. Last year, for example, the third Chinese pairs team at JW was simply deleted from the results, and the rankings reassigned. And I'm sure others can name even more precedents than me, but I think it's clear that there has been quite a bit of variability in outcome/resolution/punishment. The older precedents, where entire teams were banned for years, also tended to be against nations in the Eastern Bloc during the cold war, and I say it'd be naive to say that politics didn't play at least somewhat into those decisions. Well, cold war is over, maybe we should make an effort not to think with that mentality anymore. China is not the enemy. Chinese people are not all evil and aliens who are so different from us, that we can't relate to their goals or feelings. The administration might be corrupt at many different levels, but the athletes are just hard-working young people like all of us, wanting a better life for themselves, wanting fair play, but are constrained by their life circumstances into a much poorer set of options than what's available to American athletes and their families.
Some of these posts make me feel like there's a tendency to make cultural oversimplification, to characterize all Chinese people as possessing certain qualities -- e.g. they just like to cheat, they think cheating is okay -- and the danger of this is (1) it makes you want to think of ordinary Chinese people just as this alien, dehumanized species with whom you cannot and need not empathize, and (2) that because
it's a fundamental problem with Chinese culture, it justifies ISU meting out punishment as broadly as possible, in order to change the entire culture. But really, it is very specific, powerful people in charge who are guilty of most of this. And the Chinese skating forums are actively debating all of this, and almost everyone expressing disdain and shame at the federation's behavior, and sympathy for the athletes. Very few people post that cheating is okay and should be condoned. I can't remember reading any that said that the federation should continue to cheat, but just do it better. In contrast, I see almost a universal sentiment that there needs to be a broad change at the administrative level, and the incentive system should be altered at the bureaucratic level to hold these administrators responsible for misconduct.
"Evil" people exist in every culture, just as good people do. But when the political system is such that the people without scruples most easily get into positions of power, and can only remain there by cheating and corruption, then you will have an over-representation of such people at the top decision-making levels. Doesn't mean the whole country of 1.3 people all lack principles and honesty. I actually partly brought up the financial crisis analogy, not because it's the same issue (obviously it's very different at very many levels), but for Americans and westerners to be able to appreciate what it might feel like in the shoes of ordinary Chinese athletes and their families who will receive the punishment. The point is that U.S. taxpayers/voters shouldn't have to pay to rescue the big banks and pay back the big bosses' bonuses, essentially, even though indirectly they are responsible for electing their government leaders. Nor anymore do Americans deserve the suddenly lowering of world opinion of Americans just because of the many horrendous decisions that the Bush administrations made over time (which happened on a large scale, I don't know if it was clear to Americans at the time -- I witnessed the unflattering European perspective because that's where I was living at the time). Yes, in some sense as taxpayers and voters we do bear responsibility, and hopefully we will have learned our mistakes and elect better leaders in the future, or push harder for financial regulatory reform and stand up to the financial industry special interest groups. But in terms of immediate punishment, it'd be much more effectively to punish the big bank bosses directly, rather than let taxpayers be saddled with all the burden and wait for the reform of the whole system slowly happen. The other reason why I brought this up is that in every culture there are bad apples, the financial system has an incentive in place that encourages top investment bankers to gamble recklessly, and rewards those that do so without moral scruples. To judge the moral culture of Americans purely by those at the top of the financial world is silly, just as it is to judge the moral culture of Chinese people by those at the top of China's political/ecomic/financial world.
Finally, most of the athletes in question are really young girls, pre-teen girls away from their parents and friends, who train so hard and forego their childhoods and a proper education, just for the chance to compete and make something out of their athletic career. It just seems so cruel and unfair to permanently destroy their careers just because these *children* couldn't say no to the team officials' demand, either by directly banning their ability to compete during a critical period in their athletic development (which for girls happens in a very compressed few years), or by allowing the federation officials to use them as scapegoats to exonerate themselves.
And I especially don't see the value of banning all the Chinese athletes whose ages aren't in question. How do you know they didn't actively stand up to pressure for an age change? And now you want to punish them anyway? Then in the future, why would anyone bother to stand up to the officials?
Ok, this was a REALLY long post. I should desist and go to bed. Thanks all to those who had the patience to read it through.
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