Ice Dance Senior Debutantes (I/K, P/I & the Shibs): Most Potential/Improved/Liked?

Ice Dance Senior Debutantes (I/K, P/I & the Shibs): Most Potential/Improved/Liked?

In 2006 Jr. worlds, V/M got the gold, and D/W got the bronze medals. Both teams went onto the senior circuit the following year, and four years later they became the Olympic gold & silver medalists.

I figured it might be an interesting exercise to compare notes on the 2010 Jr. world medal recipients who went up to the senior circuit this season. All three teams come from ice dancing powerhouse - Russia, Canada & the US. All three teams are talented and charismatic IMHO, and will no doubt battle out for the next four years toward Sochi.

The 3 debutantes teams are:
Ilinykh (16) & Katsalapov(19) - 2010 Jr. World Champion (Russian);
Paul (19) & Mitchell (20) - Silver medalits (Canada);
Maia (16) & Alex (19) Shibutani - Pewter medalists & 2009 World Jr. silver medalists (USA).

Here are some of the questions I'd like to pose:

1. Which team show the most potential?;
2. Which team improved the most since the last Jr. Worlds?;
3. Strenghs/weaknesses of each team?;
4. Areas of improvement;
5. Your favorite team; and
6. The team that show the most promise for/at Sochi.

To compare each team' current status as uniformly as possible, I have compiled their respective 2011 Nationals data along with their SD & FD videos.

I/K Bronze Medalists
SD: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D2_tTWau_FY&feature=related
FD: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PWaI66-iKXM&feature=related
FD at 2011 Europeans as a reference: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VPpoBnIyh1E&feature=related
- Because they performed a crappy FD at their Nationals.

P/I Bronze Medalits
SD: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gjnXiEYY7Es
FD: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zZygB1jjvCk&feature=related

the Shibs: Silver Medalists
SD: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=0N8XYC1wLbE
FD: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R5bOnk2IeDs&feature=related

I/K (Total Score=149.72)
SD: 62.30 31.00 31.30
GW 2 level 2; all other elements levels 3 & 4. No decuction.
FD: 87.42 38.65 48.77
Circular & Diagonal Step Sequeces levels 2; rotational lift level 3; 2 other lifts levels 2. Rest levels 4. Stamble on twizzles w/ 1 point deduction.
To be fair, I/K performed a better FD at the 2011 Europeans.

P/I (Total Score=153.90)
SD: 61.57 33.17 28.40
Twizzles, GW 1, & Rotational lift levesl 4; GW 2 level 2; Step sequence level 3. No deduction.
FD: 92.33 48.67 43.66
Circular & Diagonal Step Sequeces levels 3; rest of the 5 elements levels 4. No deduction.

The Shibs (Total Score=173.18)
SD: 70.47 38.43 32.04
Levels 4 on all 6 elements. No deduction.
FD: 102.71 52.34 50.37
Diagonal step sequence level 3; rest of the 6 elments level 4. No deduction.

You can take the score with grain of solt, as nationals are notorious for inflating "their own dancers' scores." That's why I provided levels they earned, as they are more objective measure for which across comparison would be more meaningful.

Hope to get an interesting discussion going. Meanwhile, I'll work on my opinion piece, whew!

1. Most potential: definitely the Shibs
2. Most improvement: Paul/Islam (Shibs improvement between last season and this one notable, but they went downhill from 08/09 to 09/10, so I'm ranking them second here)
3/4. Skipping for now

5. Favourite: Shibs
6. Sochi: No clue.

Which team show the most potential? To me, it's I/K. All of these teams have good technical ability, but I/K have the nicest basics, she's got the most beautiful, balletic positions, and they have the most chemistry and "it factor". I think they can take on a lot of themes and do them well. They have a lot of smoldering chemistry, too.
Which team improved the most since the last Jr. Worlds?;The Shibutanis
Strenghs/weaknesses of each team? Paul/Islam are pretty and technically good, but they are completely and utterly forgettable right now. They're V/M-lite and just need to find their own identity on the ice. Shibutanis are excellent technically with amazing twizzles. But they leave me cold, and as siblings, I think there is a limit as to what kind of programs they can tackle. I/K are inconsistent, but I highlighted their strengths above.
Areas of improvement; P/I - get their own identity. S/S - maybe being more interesting and less generic. I/K - increased consistency and transitions.
Your favorite team; Ilinykh/Katsalapov for sure.
The team that show the most promise for/at Sochi. I/K. More versatility, more emotion and you can't rule out the hometown factor.

I really enjoy Ilinykh / Katsalapov but I wish they hadn't chosen Don Quixote for their FD, there is nothing that I'm more weary of hearing... However, they certainly are beautiful and charismatic and if they make more interesting music choices next season they could be amazing.

I could really grow to love the Shibutanis. They are so soft and effortless across the ice. The brother/sister thing doesn't bother me, I think they could make it work like the Kerrs have. The one reason that I'm not yet won over completely is the overly sweet and saccharine typical Z/S choreography... Maia needs to find her inner diva.

Paul/Islam are gorgeous but I agree, they do need to develop their own identity, distinct from Virtue/Moir. Alexandra also needs to become more of a diva, this is ice dancing after all...

1. Most potential: Though I posed this question, I see all three teams have promisese, perhaps in different areas.

2. Most improved: Shibs. The fact that Maia having grown approx. 3 inches has a lot to do with this couple being able to present better picture. They also has programs that showcase their personality much better than the last year's Tango program.

3 & 4. Strenghs/weaknesses of each team? The Shibs are wonderful technicians. I'd like to see them expanding the range of emotions they can portlay. Though both 16-year-old, Maia comes across as lot younger than Elena. Given time, Maia should be able to present more mature character.

Paul/Islam - I was impressed with them, especially their FD. Yet when you watch P/I side by side with I/K and the Shibs, P/I have less "presence" than the other two couples. Perhaps this is what Oleada means by "utterly forgettable." I agree that P/I may want to find their own couple identity. On the other hand, they have been skating only two years as a couple, so their upside should be great.

I/K - Consistency, consistency, and consistency. Elena is a born Diva, and Nikita adores her, it shows.

5. Favorite Team: Shibs - can't help it!
6. The team that show the most promise for/at Sochi 1. I/K; 2. the Shibs; 3. P/I.

I/K has the home advantage. They also have the "it" factor in that they have the kind of presence that captures people's attention. They also train with one of the top tier team in the world: P/B.

The Shibs has the most advantage in terms of the traning environment - they train with two of the world best teams, along with top US teams (S/B & C/Z). They also has the "it" factor.

P/I has the most upside in terms of growing as a couple (as they have been a team only for 2 years). However, if the Canadian federation is serious about nurturing them as the next top team, they may want to think about the traning environment especially in the area of exposure to top tier team to push their boundaries.

Ye Gods ! I'm like a kid in a candy store. I want one of those , one of those...

Boy , it kills me that P/I can't be at the "big" competitions this year..oh, well...

These observations are on the overall effect on me...I like all these teams and don't know that I can decide if one is more talented than another. They're all extremely talented in various ways... of the guys, Mitch is the least dancerly to my eye , but he's already improved a lot in this respect since last year, so there's no reason he won't improve still more. He has no stiffness or bad habits to impede him , just maybe a slight reserve. (Musing to myself, I've thought since they already got choreography from D/L, maybe a little extra work for Mitch with Patrice might benefit ?.. though Mitch's expression has also grown ) It's nit-picky , but it's hard not to be watching Alexandra all the time , as she's so exquisite..whereas with D/L I always was watching both equally. P/I are also much neater with their feet this year and I'm sure we can look forward to them bringing their footwork levels up next season. I think there's no limit to their potential.

With I/K, Katsalapov has nice big fluid movements, but he's a bit wild , not as precise with his extension, toe point etc. They don't seem to be as close together as much of the time as either P/I or the Shibs , and I seem to notice more cross cuts, but I don't know if that's a necessity, or just the vagaries of Zhulin's choreography. They seem very fast, but again , there's the cross cuts, and somehow, they often seem to take big steps, not just push to stride ( does that make sense ?). So I would prefer they sacrifice a bit of speed for the sake of overall neatness. I feel they'll want to go the route of drama, so I hope they won't go over the top.

The Shibs..I hadn't had a chance to see them last year , so I don't know if her growth has made that much difference, or if they're greatly improved as well. Surely the prodigious talent was always there. Alex is very musical and dancerly. I don't know how he'd do with any of the dances that require a more macho expression, but it'll be fun finding out. Someone has said to me that they don't completely finish their strokes , but I have to say I couldn't detect what made her say that. They will be dogged with the whole " siblings can't do passion" thing..but I think that's a crock. Passion can be expressed without excessive fondling. I have no trouble keeping the performance separate from the performers' off-ice lives , bit I'm sure it's something they'll have to deal with.

All these girls are just wonderful, yet different. Ilynykh carries more power in her arms, has a lovely back, and perhaps has a bit more bravura expression.She has good extension , but doesn't always use it fully. I prefer Paul's and MS's more floaty arms and softer hands personally, but it's just a small preference, and it does depend on the program . ( They, too have great backs )

I want to add a bit more , but my dogs await.

colleen o'neill said:

Boy , it kills me that P/I can't be at the "big" competitions this year..oh, well...

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My sentiment, exactly! It's the mixed blessing that the Canadian talents are so deep, whereas Russia and the US saw their respective top dancers retired, thereby creating room for new comers. It's interesting that someone posted, "They will leapfrog over Crone/Poirier, Weaver/Poje next year." on P/I's FD vodeo. Given their talents, it's not too far-fetched.

Personally, I would also like to see vibrant riavalry among those wonderful three teams "duking out!"

First off, Alex, Nikita and Paul are incredibly handsome and Maia, Elena and Alexandra are gorgeous pretty girls. All three teams are easy on the eyes, well matched and so fresh. It's because of these 3 teams that I taken a huge interest in ice dancing more so than the other disciplines.

1. Most potential - All three teams! I forsee that these three teams are going to be close rivals for a long time.

2. Most improved team - Maia and Alex. I agree that Maia growth spurt improved their look and they are more well matched. I was a little concerned last year when Maia looked a little stumpy compared to Alex. They're speed and power have improved and their edges are so clean. Out of the 3 men, Alex is the strongest. He has the perfect body type of skating and excellent posture.

3/4. Improvements and strengths- Alexandra and Paul - more power, preciseness and maturity. It's a little ironic that they are the oldest of the 3 yet they look the youngest. Perhaps it's because they have not been together for a long time and its evident in their program. But they will only improve in time. I do agree that they need to find their own idenitity as they resemble Tessa and Scott. However, they have solid basic skating skills and are well matched. In terms of skills, they need to get their twizzles to same level as the other two teams. Their lifts are beautiful and Alexandra's lines and extensive are absolutely beautiful. I would like to see what Igor and Marina can do with this pair but I doubt that will happen since they are coached by Paul's father.

Elena and Nikita -their lifts and transition moves. Their lifts look relatively simple and I think it's because Nikita is not as strong of a skater than Elena. His edges are not as clean and stable. In fact, most of the errors they committed this season was from Nikita. Their new spread eagle lift makes me nervous. I'm always afraid that he's going to drop Elena one day, knock on wood. Elena skates effortlessly but Nikita's skating looks a little labored. However, their strength is that they can perform a variety of programs. I actually love their FD this year as much as last year's.

Maia and Alex - skating close together, developing a range of expression and more power. Since they are siblings it would be difficult to do romantic and dramatic themes without making the audience feel uncomfortable. They are text book skaters but I would like them to develop more creatively and innovation in their future programs. They have strong and pure basic skating skills and it will take them a long way.

5. Favorite team - All three! I'm excited watching all three compete. However, my favorite female is Elena and my favorite male is Alex. Elena is a star and a diva. Maybe they should pair up! I love watching Elena and Nikita in the kiss and cry. They always seem star struck and happy. It's cute, especially when they say hi to their parents.

6. Out of the 3, Elena and Nikita because of the home country advantage.

by the way, excuse my writing skills. English is not my first language.

koheikun90 said:

by the way, excuse my writing skills. English is not my first language.

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You are doing just fine. I appreciate your thoughtful post.

Back with my two soggy doggies..life is moist on the wet coast.

I don't think the leapfrog comment is at all out of order , not a certainty, but entirely possible. I wasn't sure they could keep up their rate of improvement over the last year , but they did. David Islam strikes me as a smart man. I think he sees what the competition is, and will try to get the kids what they need. I'm not sure they'll need to move on ..yet. I'll be interested to see what kind of talent he attracts on the basis of P/I's results. He was already reaching out to top choreographic talent for them last year ( and what I feel is going to become top choreographic talent this year..judging by some of the programs D/L have created so far ) If he keeps on the way he has been, it may not be necessary for them to move on anytime soon. I hope he'll focus on distinguishing them stylistically.

Alexandra has a subtle ,mature confidence.. Maia has great poise and the promise of confident maturity , and there are lots of just pure dances they can tackle before anyone need worry about becoming repetitive. Again , I worry a bit for Elena..she's so expressive ( a good thing ) but they have her proclaiming her maturity so noticeably , I hope they don't push too hard.

I think it's too soon to guess who will be more likely to dominate in Sochi..so much can happen in 4 yrs. Any Russian couple will have a hometown advantage, but who or how many will they be ? And how many others can challenge it ? Too soon to say for me.

1. Most potential: For me, I/K. Shibs in second.
2. Most improved: The Shibs. Finally they have programs that suit them
3-4 Strenghs/weaknesses, Areas of improvement I/K have the best basics, speed and ice coverage of all three teams. They also can skate very different programs and do it beautifully; they have tons of "it" and when they skate you can see "future champions" written on them. They need to improve their lifts, maybe learn some new lifts. And consistency of course.
The Shibs are great technicians. They are lovely and cute, but I agree with oleada, there is a limit as to what kind of programs they can tackle, it's much harder for them to show different styles.
P/I are the weakest team for me. They need to find their own style at first, who cares about V/M's copy when we still have the original V/M? And they still skate like juniors, more than the Shibs and I/K. Oh, and their twizzles look more like turns. But I like their lines and softness.
5. Favorite Team: I/K! I just love them! Can't remember any dance team I liked that much
6. The team that show the most promise for/at Sochi 1. I/K 2. the Shibs 3. P/I.
I/K have "it" and lookes more like champions. They also can beat B/S in future and become #1 Russian team in Sochi or even earlier. It's not that simple for the Shibs because there are still Davis/White. And it's very difficult for P/I, they couldn't even make the team this season and I don' t really think they are or can be better than W/P or C/P.

CARA said:

Here are some of the questions I'd like to pose:

1. Which team show the most potential?;
2. Which team improved the most since the last Jr. Worlds?;
3. Strenghs/weaknesses of each team?;
4. Areas of improvement;
5. Your favorite team; and
6. The team that show the most promise for/at Sochi.

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They are all wonderful teams, but of the 3, I have only seen the Shibutanis live, and that's for me, where I can best judge a dance team, so my comments on the other two teams should be taken with a grain of salt.

As to your questions:

Strengths and weaknesses of each team:

Shibutanis:

The Shibutanis have always had amazingly good timing, something that has not yet been mentioned on this thread. They skate very close together, and have great leg line match. All 3 teams have good speed, and the Shibs do, too. I just watched the 3 SD's on this thread, and if the SD format is kept for the next quad, and if the other 2 teams don't improve significantly, the Shibutanis will be consistently beating them in the short dance. The Shibs are great CD skaters.

At the beginning of the year, all three teams had disasters in the SD, not surprising in teams that were trying to do the hardest CD, the Golden Waltz, and that it was a dance they had never competed. At the end of the year, both I&K and P&I have still not mastered the GW. And they are still getting level 2 in the second Golden Waltz sequence. The Shibutanis are doing it effortlessly, floating over the ice, and with the sound off, you know they are dancing a waltz. They have the lovely, lilting quality that you are supposed to show with a waltz.

Both I&K and P&I chose to cover up their GW inadequacies at the dance by mashing it up with a tango. With the sound off, you can't tell there is a waltz in either program. It's telling that P&I still got some negative GOE's from some judges in the GW, even at their own nationals.
GW 1 GW2 Total score
Shibs (US Nats) Level 4 6.93 Level 4 8.86, Total 15.79
P&I (Can Nats) Level 4 6.50, Level 2 6.50, Total 13.0
I&K (Euros) Level 3 5.36, Level 2 6.29, Total 11.65

Additional Shibs strengths:
They are really, really quiet on the blade, just floating over the ice.
They are very hard workers, in a rink where the World silver and gold medallists train, and are known for hard work. It's not a bad thing to enter the GP season each year in the best possible shape.
They have the usual S&Z really good, complex lifts.
They have the best twizzles of the 3 teams.
Alex is a better partner than Nikita or Mitchell, more solid on his blades.


Shib weaknesses.
The Shibs are not very tall, and it is much harder for short teams to dominate the ice the way really tall teams can.
It's not clear how the Shibs fit in the US scheme when Samuelson and Bates return next year. It's possible that S&B will still be ahead of them.
And, of course, it is trickier to choreograph for siblings. Their last year's tango was not a success.
Their look is a classic US ice dance look, geared to ballroom. I love it to pieces, but the non-US countries don't necessarily like that look.

P&I
Strengths
They have really good matching leg line for a team that has not been together very long.
Having been together for only a short time, they've come a long, long way.
She's very lovely in a ballet dancer sort of way, but probably should dye her hair or something to stop looking so much like Tessa Virtue.
They train with his dad. That's got to limit expenses, a good thing in an expensive sport. On the other hand, it creates a balance of power problem, one that was fatal here in the US to the team of Matthews & Zavozin, so it's a strength that has a risk.

Weaknesses
They are significantly noisier on the blade than C&P and W&P, from the Canadian coverage. And markedly worse at the GW than W&P, particularly. With V&M not retiring, they face a long hard slog to 4CC's and Worlds for at least one more year, and maybe longer. They will need patience and hard work.
They haven't mastered the GW yet. There are still stumbles, and they're lucky that the attitude turn is not one of the level points this year.
Like it or not, Canadian ice dance is deep. V&M are not retiring. Neither are W&P or C&P. As a result P&I are not going to Worlds or 4CC's this year. That puts them at a significant disadvantage to the Shibs and I&K. And maybe next year will be the same.

I&K
Strengths
They have a really great presence on the ice.
She has a great ability to express emotions.
She's very pretty, in a ballerina sort of way.
The Russian Federation is rather weak in dance, compared to Canada or the USA, right now. I&K are at no risk of being left off the team at Euros, and even when they performed badly at Nationals, they have been cut a pass to go to Worlds, based on their performance at Euros. The support of your federation is no insignificant thing. Of the 3 teams, they are the one most likely to win their own nationals first. They could do it as early as next year. There's no two ways about it, the first place team in a country has a better chance internationally than the second place team (witness the history in the US of B&A and D&W).

Weaknesses
They didn't come into the GP season in the very best condition. There were reasons for this, but they need to really work this next summer, or they will hit their first GP, as they did this year, and be beaten again by the Shibs or someone else that they should not lose to.
They don't skate close together. They chose to do a ballet FD, in which she wears a tutu, which maintains a wider space between the couple, but even in the SD, they are very far apart.
They are still kind of wild and sloppy yet.
He needs to work on his reverse direction twizzles (the 2nd in any set of 3).
Their lifts are sigificantly easier than the other 2 teams, and don't have much to do with the dance they are doing.

Potential: I don't do potential. I see it as a label to give credit to people who might achieve something for already having done so.
Who has improved the most this last year: Paul and Islam. I was totally unimpressed by them last year, and they have come a long way. Shibs second, I&K third.

I'm not making Sochi predictions, because they have to be affected by which other teams are still competing. If V&M and D&W are still competing, there is a lot less room at the top. If Bobrova & Soloviev continue to work as hard as they have, I&K will be the second place Russian team at Sochi. If I&K don't work hard, they could be passed by any of the really good Junior teams behind them, like Monko & Khaliavin. The case in Canada is even harder for P&I: V&M are not retiring, and C&P are not retiring, and W&P probably are not retiring, since they are still improving their world placement. They will have to work like crazy, and have a little luck even to get to Sochi by jumping at least one of the other 3 Canadian teams.

Right now of the 3 teams, my favorite is the Shibs, but this is hugely affected by how charming their skating at Greensboro was, and how lucky I was to be there to see it.

Of course, if the SD dance next season is Tango, the Shibs would be at a huge disadvatange compared to the the other two teams.

Paul/Islam
What they have: Startling good leg line. Very good dance holds. Lovely posture. Elegance.
What they need: Better twizzles (especially in comparison to the other debutantes - the Shibs and I/K are already among the best twizzlers in the world). A stronger sense of self. Better skating skills. A little weaker playing field in the future.
Secret Weapon: They have a very steep learning curve. Watching them progress from World Junior to Thornhill was impressive. I think this is how they'll catch Weaver/Poje.

Ilynikh/Katsalpov
What they have: Staggering good twizzles. Great skating skills.
What they need: Better choreography. More dance in their dance. Better speed in the step sequences. He needs to work on his presence and interpretation. "It"
Secret weapon: A broad but shallow federation.

Shibutanis
What they have: Old-fashioned elegance. Choreography that emphasizes their gifts. Great skating skills
What they need: A little bit more power. To avoid falling into the rut that seems to affect sibling teams. To avoid the tango or anything carnal.
Secret weapon: Training with the most acclaimed coaches on the scene with the top two teams in the world.

The problem with catching Weaver & Poje at this point is that there is a knife edge difference between them and Crone/Poirier. There isn't any room in the middle. IMO, P/I will have to pass both teams at one leap if trends continue in the same way.

P&I have a clear technical gap to W/P in the SD, particularly in the compulsory steps. In fact, here's how they were scored at Canadians:

SD Technical:
C/P TES 35.17
W/P TES 35.09
P/I TES 33.17

How did this distribute by skills?
Twizzles-all 3 teams got Level 4. Historically, this has been W&P's weakest skill.
C/P 7.08
P/I 6.92
W/P 6.67

Lift-typically, this has been a W/P strength
W/P 5.42
C/P 5.00
P/I 4.75

Golden Waltz-W&P have been consistently the best of the 3 teams this year.
W/P 14.50 (level 4/level 3)
C/P 14.42 (level 4/level 3)
P/I 13.00 (level 4/ level 2)

Midline step
C/P Level 3 8.67
W/P Level 3 8.50
P/I Level 3 8.50

PCS
C/P 30.63
W/P 30.55
P/I 28.40

Where are the differences:
Skating Skills
IMO, This is where C/P are significantly better than W/P, and W/P are significantly better than I/P
C/P 6.10
W/P 6.00
P/I 5.54
Transitions/Linking Footwork
C/P 5.28
W/P 5.17
P/I 4.90
Performance/Execution, OTOH, I find W/P should be better than C/P in the next 3 components (even the Canadian judges agreed on 2 of the components). And P/I, having not created a clear picture of themselves yet, are at more of a disadvantage than either C/P or W/P in these 3 components.
C/P 5.45
W/P 5.43
P/I 5.02
Choreography/Composition
W/P 6.20
C/P 6.17
P/I 5.92
Interpretation
W/P 7.75
C/P 7.63
P/I 7.17

W/P's skating skills have improved vastly since moving to Krylova, and their interpretative skills are already ahead of C/P. I expect both C/P and W/P to be working on their weaknesses in the next year, so there will continue to be darn little space between the two.

Plus both C/P and W/P made the GPF. I expect to see W/P in the top 10 at Worlds this year.

This is a tough slog for P/I.

As to the FD:
TES- Weaver and Poje actually were slightly ahead of C/P in the technical elements
W/P 50.83
C/P 50.08
P/I 48.67

PCS
C/P 48.33
W/P 46.71
P/I 43.66

The difference between C/P and W/P in the FD, and indeed in the event, was primarily in Skating Skills and Transitions, areas that W/P have been improving rapidly in this year. So I see the two teams remaining very close next year. It would behoove both of them to arrive at their first GP event in prime shape.

dorispulaski said:

The problem with catching Weaver & Poje at this point is that there is a knife edge difference between them and Crone/Poirier. There isn't any room in the middle. IMO, P/I will have to pass both teams at one leap if trends continue in the same way.

W/P's skating skills have improved vastly since moving to Krylova, and their interpretative skills are already ahead of C/P. I expect both C/P and W/P to be working on their weaknesses in the next year, so there will continue to be darn little space between the two.

Plus both C/P and W/P made the GPF. I expect to see W/P in the top 10 at Worlds this year.

This is a tough slop for P/I.

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I will link my comments here, although initially I wanted to Colleen's yapping about P/I not going to Worlds (sorry Colleen)

I will analyze similar to Doris here P/I current chances in Canada. Simply, tough luck! They might not be going to Worlds for many years to come. And I won't feel too much sorry for whichever team will be left home anytime. They actually are lucky to be coming up in Canada right now, wihen Canada has the best line up ever in ice dance. They will have a target to shoot for and a very high bar to conquer. Their worlds will be our nationals.

If P/I were going to worlds this year, for them would be just another competition, nothing more. One more step in their progression.
For our top 3 teams, this worlds will mean so much more, it will not be just another competition, it will be THE competition.
For V/M a chance to defend their title for the first time, always a harder task than to win it for the first time. It will be even more difficult considering the circumstances, Tessa's surgery.
It might look impossible, but it is not actually, it has been done before, by G/P in 1995, after missing Europeans with injury, they went on and won worlds for the second time.
For C/P extremely important in ther ascendence into the top echelon of world ice dance, they could ctach a top 5 position. Again, it will be tough, but not impossible. They defeated both the Kerrs and Bobrova / Soloviev so, if they could do that once again, they will be in the top 5.
For Weaver / Poje, finally arriving on the big stage after a 3 year hiatus, they can get into the top 10. Again not impossible task. If they defeat the hungarians (which they did at GPF) and the germans plus Chock / Zuerlain.

P/I will be finding themselves for the next few years in the same situation once the russian/soviet ice dnace teams were (in the 70' through 90's). once they qualified for the world team, they were a top 10 team ready to challenge for the top 5.

If I would be their coach, i would already plan with a choreographer their new FD. They will have to roll up their sleeves very soon and start working. I know they are still the alternates for the Worlds, but there are very slim chances to be there, so basically their season is over.

Doris:
Just wanted to let you know that I love reading your posts. I've learned so much from you, so thank you.

herios, I agree with you: if P/I make it through Canadian Nationals to Worlds, when they do arrive at Worlds, they will already be in a position to challenge for top spots.

Given that this thread is sort of an advice to young teams thread, at least in part (Suggestions for Improvement), I think it's worthwhile to examine the successes of V&M and D&W. V&M came to the front in the World really quickly, partially because they were really, really good, but also because Canadian champions Dubreiul and Lauzon retired, leaving the space open. V&M haven't had any real competition in Canada since D&L retired. D&W arrived at US ice dance when B&A were in first place, and were past Olympic silver medallists and world medallists. Gregory & Petukhov were top 10 at Worlds, in second place. And up and coming just behind D&W were the 2008 Jr. World Champions, Samuelson and Bates, the 2009 Jr. World Silver Medallists, the Shibutanis, the 2009 Jr. World Champions, Chock & Zuerlein. US ice dance in that time frame was very, very crowded, and there was no obvious need for a team whose best credential was a Jr. Worlds bronze medal.

The first moral is, all the talk about hard work aside, it's good to be the champion in a powerful Federation. The second place team and below have to make their own way.

But hard work...really works. D&W always arrived at the beginning of the GP in the very best shape they could manage, while teams like the Kerrs didn't peak until Euros & Worlds, and progressed more slowly. A good Grand Prix result really, really helps. V&M arrived in the best shape they could, too, when Tessa's physical condition allowed it. The Shibs have clearly learned this lesson.

The second lesson for any team trying to come up in a federation that is full of talent, is ignore all the diva talk. Nice things happen to nice people, provided they work hard, and compete like sharks. I have always been struck by the camaraderie in Canton which made it possible for all these talented young people to train together (and learn from each other) without much time wasting drama occuring.

The third lesson is that you must be ruthless in analyzing your faults, and work to fix them. I have always been impressed with the way D&W have set goals that target their faults and work towards fixing them. Even when they don't succeed as much as I would like, there is always a strategy and a plan. And that's a good thing.

And BTW, if people are complaining about your hairstyle or your costumes or your makeup, those are easy to fix--you should never waste time trying to defend a costume if the consensus is that it is not flattering.

herios..no offense taken ( but you may have been reading a bit too much emotion into what I've said..) I've been interested in this group of debutantes as a group for a while, and actually, I think of M/K as being right there with them..which they will be next year.( From what I saw of Alessandrini / Vaturi at Euros, it looks like they are not keeping pace , at this point ) I like them all, and think it's a pity P/I to have to sit this one out...but that doesn't mean I think they should take precedence over our other teams. It's the school of hard knocks and the team that's had the roughest go of it in the hard knocks department is W/P. But they just keep working , and bravo to them .

I read somewhere that P/I are already thinking of next year's programs , while keeping in readiness in the unlikely case they have to sub.So it looks like their team all have heads on shoulders and sleeves rolled up. Whatever the talent, I don't think a couple can make the kind of progress they made in the last year without their coaching staff being able to identify what needs improving , and knowing how to set about it.

While I agree with doris that P/I show the most improvement..it's the Shibs that have just captured me this season. Heaven knows what the judges will do with them at 4CC , if they continue to skate the way they have been. I think they could be a real threat for the bronze medal.

I don't think I/K show a lot of improvement from Jr. World's. What they show is very exciting , and there's lots of room to grow , but I think it's more the ( her ?) phenomenal talent that's making the splash, as yet.

doris , that's a fascinating post. Leaving aside the possibility of under/overmaking, it'll be interesting to see who makes strides where , next year.

ETA : doris , I was referring to your first post, but I heartily agree with the one above, too.