IMO, W/P's only chance to make the top 6 is C/P's mistakes. They had a very good chance at 4CC to beat C/P and become Canadian #2 team, but they gave it away. So at Worlds they'll be only #3 of Canada and I doubt that judges will place them ahead of S/S and I/K, not to mention the Kerrs or B/S (of course if all teams will have decent skates).
Actually I like W/P much more than C/P and always wanted them to beat C/P eventually but it didn't happen
Agreed. Honestly even C/P are only likely to place about 6th or 7th at Worlds if V/M skate and everyone skates well, so naturally W/P would be slated to finish below that if all goes according to probability.Originally Posted by Lucky Star
And I know this is a wish thread but the discussion got off topic a long time ago anyhow, and I am only responding to what someone else was saying.
As I said , I find it very difficult to separate my wishes from what I think is a rational projection. I particularly didn't mention B/S , since I don't think either W/P or C/P could finish above them. I don't think K/K can either, though they could well wind up in 5th.
So much depends on the SD, and where these teams get set up for the FD..I find it very fascinating. I think that C/P were gifted in the SD at nationals, considering that their SD has not been so well recieved internationally. ( No , I'm not trying to go off on a W/P should have won Canadians tangent.) I'm just saying that where these teams are placed after the SD ( and what group they skate in for the FD )can make some difference in the eventual outcome , and if skated cleanly , W/P's could quite possibly see them ahead of all the teams they're jockying for position with.
Now my wishes come into play...I agree that W/P have been mistake prone..some mistakes have been plain bad luck , some momentary loss of focus , or whatever.( They haven't seemed to stem from poor skills). I have seen some improvement in how they deal with these setbacks , so my wish and hope is that they will have a major mistake-free world's.
If that should be the case, they'll be right in the thick of the fight for the 5-10 positions and though I haven't been a big fan of their FD I don't think it's short on content .
I don't think it automatically follows that it's only natural that W/P would be placed below C/P..after all the judges at 4CC were poised to place them above C/P if Andrew's skate had not caught in Kaitlyn's skirt. ( And I don't think that can be cited as proof of W/P throwing their chances away.)
I think 5-8 or 9 could go so many different ways it's very difficult to predict.
ETA : just noticed ..someone had linked to twitter regarding Amodio being recalled to France..and there was another tweet saying Sinead has re-injured her shoulder and the Kerrs are out of World's...
** confirmed in the World Championships Entries thread.
Last edited by colleen o'neill; 03-12-2011 at 08:41 PM.
If I picked what I would want to happen it would probably be Weaver & Poje finishing about 4th and Crone & Poirier about 8th, but that is not what is likely to happen. Yeah W&P could have beaten C&P at Four Continents, but they didnt again. They have lost to C&P what is it, something like 10 times in a row now. So obviously the extremely likely outcome is they will lose to them again. Of course big upsets happen, W&P could beat C&P, but past and recent history both indicates not to expect it. Four Continents is probably the first time ever the judges gave them a real shot at finishing above C&P and they blew it which is not positive for their momentum going into Worlds. It is not like the judges usually give them that kind of chance they had a 4CCs and when they do they definitely need to capatilize. Being beaten by the Shibutanis for a 2nd straight time and easily bested by them in the FD for a 3rd straight time isnt helpful to them either.
You seem to focus alot on the SD but the reality is the FD is worth more points than the SD, and while the SD could have some impact on the results the results all season indicate W&P not being able to hold up to those other teams you mentioned in the FD and most likely that will be the case again, even if they are above some of them (potentially, not certainly) in the SD.
8th or 9th is the most likely outcome for W&P at Worlds, and it certainly isnt based on wishful thinking as you strangely suggested but realism. I in fact would like to see them place higher than that, and they could, but that is definitely their most likely finish.
Sorry didnt notice the part of the Kerrs now being out of Worlds too. They are dropping like flies.
Last edited by pangtongfan; 03-12-2011 at 09:38 PM.
Even with the Kerr's out, I think the best W/P will finish is 5th. 10th is very pessimistic. I don't share the view that W/P "blew it" at 4CC. Disappointing, absolutely. But tripping on a skirt happens. It's a fluke thing. Yes, they had other mistakes in their FD, but the spin alone would have put them in 2nd place. The Shibs also had costume problems earlier in the season. When W/P and C/P consistently finish really, really close together, it only stands to reason that these teams could finish in any order should they both skate really clean. My hope for the competition is that C/P and W/P finish at least 6 and 7 in any order, enough to guarantee Canada 3 spots next season if V/M are not able to compete. If V/M do compete, having 3 teams in the top 10 at worlds would be amazing, something I don't recall ever happening for Canada in the past in ice dance.
I think Virtue/Moir, Davis/White, Pechalat/Bourzat and Bobrova/Soloviev will definitely finish ahead of Weaver/Poje. There is a slight chance W/P could finish ahead of B/S, as they were ahead of them in the SD at the GP Final, but I believe this is highly unlikely. Teams that MIGHT beat Weaver/Poje: Shibutanis, Crone/Poirier, Ilinykh/Katsalapov, Cappellini/Lanotte (probably not but I haven't seen their new programs), Hoffman/Zavozin (also, probably not). I don't see Weaver/Poje falling out of the top 10 though, barring major errors.
Well now with 2 teams that probably would have finished above them withdrawing Weaver & Poje will end up finishing higher than my original prediction. Crone & Poirier probably as well, although they had a better shot of beating those 2 teams than W&P did. Most likely now the Shibutanis, I/K of Russia, Crone & Porier, and Weaver & Poje will all be battling for places 5-8. Crone & Poirier are more likely to finish around 6th and W&P 7th or 8th. Even if Virtue & Moir withdraw now we still should be good for 3 spots considering that would move both C&P and W&P up a spot and worst case scenario would be 6th and 7th now with V/M out (and that is if the Shibutanis and I/K both beat both teams).
K/K announced they are out - who else?
In any case , I do think it will (and should) be cancelled. Ideally to be held elsewhere.
Posting to this thread has been pure escapism for me in the last couple of days , as I'm sure it has been for everyone else. I've been mostly glued to BBC World and other news channels , but I have to get my mind away from it now and then. ( And I'm very grateful I can, to some extent , when there are so many who simply can't.)
So this is in my figuring mode, not my wishing mode...When/if/where World's happens,I agree W/P are highly unlikely to finish ahead of B/S , but beyond that, I think all bets are off ( if they can have a mishap-free competition ).C/P could well finish ahead of them again, but I don't think that can counted on by any means, with an international judging panel.
I love the Shibs and their programs, but without accidents, don't think their SD can trump W/P's . I personally prefer their FD , but it may not have as much point-garnering content between their exquisite elements. They placed ahead of both Canadian couples at 4CC, but without W/P's spin mishap, they would have been bumped to 3rd and C/P would probably have been 4th.
I/K's programs didn't stand up to either W/P's or S/S's early in the season , and this isn't supposed to be a competition to judge potential. Their performance has improved, but again, content ? I'm not so sure. I , like many others ,thought they were gifted ( or at least benefitted from inflated marks) at Euro's . Barring accidents or mistakes from other skaters ,I think if they leaped into 5th, or maybe even 6th here, it would raise the spectre of judging shennanigans all over again.
Unless C/P have done something to doctor the rhythm of their SD, they're at a distinct disadvantage against these other teams in the SD portion ( except for maybe I/K whose SD program itself is not among the best, not to mention some issues with their skating which may or may not be recognized ). And to judge from 4CC, there's a possibility that C/P's FD may not be quite the game changer they hoped for.
They've all had time to polish and perfect since 4CC and Euro's , so I think 5th-8th is a toss -up , and none of the four couples can be counted out of hot contention.
It's very heady to think Canada and maybe the US ( depending on what happens with C/Z)could both wind up with 3 couples in the top 10.
tangos..I think pangtonfan was referring to Faiella / Scali 's withdrawal ?
Last edited by colleen o'neill; 03-13-2011 at 05:57 PM.
The Shibutanis have beaten Weaver & Poje in the FD all 3 times they met this season and beaten them the last 2 times overall. There is no question of their FD having enough to beat W&P, it is W&P who have yet to prove the reverse is true.
Yeah if W&P had skated cleanly they could have been 2nd at 4CCs but even then they still would have lost the FD portion to the Shibutani's but perhaps stayed ahead of them overall. However W&P are not usually received as kindly by a judging panel as they were at 4CCs, usually it is more on par with what we saw at Canadians where even with their best performances they couldnt beat a subpar Crone & Poirier. Which is why blowing their chance to make a move up their does little to raise their chances to best any of these couples at Worlds.
As for I/K their scores at Europeans show their ascent is continuing. I would be surprised if they didnt finish above atleast 1 of the second tier NA teams at Worlds. We will see though.
The question about doctoring the rhythm of C&P's SD and I&K's SD is a real one-there were definite timing issues with a couple of teams at Jr. Worlds-most notably the winners, M&K. There's got to be some chit chat in the judging world when two judges give a Timing/Interp component of 3 to 4 to the winners of a competition-that implies 50 to 75% of the steps were on the wrong beat.
If there's chit chat, there may be some severe penalties (similar to M&K but from more judges) handed out at Worlds.Timing The general Viennese Waltz like pulsation is achieved by a continuous lilting knee action.
Checkpoints for timing Steps 9, 16 and 23 skated on count 1.
* NOTE: As Accuracy and Timing are inseparable in Compulsory Dances, timing mistakes shall be reflected in
both, GOE and Components marks
Figuring out what beat 1 is in either C&P's or I&K's Pattern dance has to be a challenge for the teams...and the judges. This would have to be part of the reason that D&W and P&B both dropped Amelie SD's.
doris, that's interesting..I've been trying to figure it out all season, but I don't really know or recognise all the idividual steps, or remember where they should fall ...but both these dances have felt distinctly OFF to me all along. I was thinking after 4CC that while it was probably too late for C/P to change their SD, they could maybe dub a clearer waltz rhythm into their music , which would help. ( I do want all the Canadian teams to do as well as possible)
Why would they have lost the FD portion? If, as you assert, W/P were received kindly at 4CC, I don't see how it's completely implausible. They gave up 5-6 points on the spin alone (they scored 5.57 at NHK, 5.42 at Skate America and 5.36 at the GPF). Toss on the GOE they lost on the lift and a likely PCS boost from skating clean, I think it's certainly plausible that they'd rank ahead of the Shibs in both disciplines.
I think it's a moot point, though.
For the posters who like to withdraw or retire skaters for themnow with V/M out (and that is if the Shibutanis and I/K both beat both teams)., Skate Canada has confirmed that Virtue/Moir will be attending the 2011 World Championship, wherever it may be.
Actually, I thought it was nothing short of embarrassing that C/P were placed slightly above W/P in the SD at Canadians , considering the excellence of one program ,and the problems with the other.
Both teams had slight bobbles in the FD..so why W/P should be painted as at their best, while C/P's effort should be painted as sub-par , but still clearly better ( when the point differential over both segments was 1.3 points ), I don't know. Then ,adopting this colouring as evidence, to assert that C/P should definitely be considered the better team , puts quite a strain on logic, IMO.
But setting personal opinions aside , I don't think it's safe to assume that an international panel would have agreed on that same slight difference, or that it should necessarily cut the same way. I'm not saying W/P are miles better; I'm saying that the couples are very close in ability with different strenghths and weaknesses , and either one might deserve the upper hand on any given day.
And whichever one places ahead of the other, given the small numbers of points that can determine placements, there could be one or two more couples sandwiched in between..it's a highly competitive field.
Last edited by colleen o'neill; 03-14-2011 at 04:24 AM.
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