Men's Long Program

[dorispulaski]

Well, I agree it is a lot easier to do conspiracy in the tech panel, but only one of the two 4 toes was probably UR and it would be >, not >>, and in the end, it would not have dropped Ryan below Dornbush overall. The conspiracy so to speak was in the ISU meeting that has decided to reward flawed quad attempts this year. If USFS had wanted to pump up Ryan they would have inflated his PCS, as they did with Meissner and Czisny. Ryan won the event in the SP, where he was 2 points ahead of Abbott and something like 12 points ahead of Dornbush. His PCS were lower than Miner & Dornbush in the LP. And he was only 4th in the LP.

The big conspiracy would be to keep Jeremy in 1st place, but he had only the 10th best tech base value on the night, and even stellar PCS (8.11 for SS) was not enough to do the trick. Dornbush was if anything, over rewarded for his PCS in the LP. His step sequence just crawled across the ice. And yet he ended up with 7.36 in PCS for skating skills. Miner was significantly faster, but they gave him essentially the same SS marks, slightly lower. In contrast Armin only got 7.18. Rippon's were 7.75 (but again, his 3A didn't make it)


After Miner skated, it was total Dornbush 225.56 and Miner 224.35. It is quite tricky to insert someone between those two. The attempt was to get Abbott over both of them..and he ended up under them, with 224.16. (and due to having a base value of 61.00, vs over 73 for Miner & Dornbush and 78 for Ryan) So then Ryan skates. Ryan had landed 2 quads in the warmup on the SP, the quad in the SP, two more quads in the LP warmup and had been nailing all the practices. And he went out and blew 2 quads. However, because his spins were better than usual and he added a 3t to his 3A in the second half of the program he was able to up his tech score significantly to where he was 4th in the LP. And that was enough.

USFS's desired outcome was Abbott/Rippon/probably Mahbanoozedeh, maybe Bradley or Mroz. In fact you know this because that's who they named to the 4CC's team to be sure they got their ISU championship ticket punched for the year. Dornbush was supposed to go to Jr Worlds and win.

[Joesitz]

Joubert isnt going to be on the podium. There are atleast 6 guys I would favor over him this year.

That's an opinion. I presume you are not a judge with such an open biased view. Let the consensus of the Panel decide

[Joesitz]

I think there was a very plausible conspiracy theory to award the gold to the veteran Bradley instead of newbie Dornbush by not marking down enough for Ryan's very flawed quad toe attempts. It still really bothers me that his 4toe was not marked UR because it clearly was. The USFSA has a history of doing this - rewarding Meissner's 3+3 and not Flatt's in the 2007 SP; rewarding Czisny's flawed LP over Flatt's clean LP in 2009.

Interesting take on Nats. While Dornbush presented a better program, the Panel went for the "fun" Bradley brought to his programs.

I do believe different Panels bring in different Results.

We'll see how the 3 boys do in this very tough Mens Field.

[Joesitz]

Oh yes, reading these posts, I am amazed at some of the responses. Not only do the majority believe that one competition is the best way to form a Worlds Team, but many also see the one competition in 4CC to justify there beliefs. Strong conservative thinking!

[Mathman]

I think there was a very plausible conspiracy theory to award the gold to the veteran Bradley instead of newbie Dornbush by not marking down enough for Ryan's very flawed quad toe attempts. It still really bothers me that his 4toe was not marked UR because it clearly was. The USFSA has a history of doing this - rewarding Meissner's 3+3 and not Flatt's in the 2007 SP; rewarding Czisny's flawed LP over Flatt's clean LP in 2009.

I don't think it is an outright "conspiracy" to hold up one skater over another, though.

What I think happens is that the judges and tech panels, just like fans, have a preconceived notion of who they think is probably going to win the championship. Then they don't want to pile on the UR calls, low PCSs etc., because that would send the wrong message to Worlds.

[SkateFiguring]

What I think happens is that the judges and tech panels, just like fans, have a preconceived notion of who they think is probably going to win the championship. Then they don't want to pile on the UR calls, low PCSs etc., because that would send the wrong message to Worlds.

I'm so surprised this reasoning comes from you Mathman.

Au contraire, if they pile on the (deserved) UR calls, low PCS etc, that skater will not win so no "wrong" message is sent to Worlds. Selecting the champion with proper judging will ensure the best skater, and the right message, is sent to Worlds.

The world may understand and accept GOE inflation or variation at Nationals but not faulty Technical calls. Technical Panels can't get away with obviously off calls which are verifiable and will not be granted internationally. They hurt the credibility of more than the technical callers and do not improve the chances of medalling for the national champion or national team thus selected.

[wallylutz]

What I think happens is that the judges and tech panels, just like fans, have a preconceived notion of who they think is probably going to win the championship. Then they don't want to pile on the UR calls, low PCSs etc., because that would send the wrong message to Worlds.

Then I can tell you that your guess is very wrong. On the contrary, under CoP, neither anyone on the Technical Panel or any individual judges has any notion who will win the competition when it's close or how each each skater will rank because no ordinals are given anymore. In the past, each judge could vote who they want to be 1st, 2nd and etc. down to 50th place. By taking that away, and lack of control on BV, which is being called by the Tech. Panel, there is no way for a judge to know how his/her marks will result in what ranking. For example, in my mind, I could think that Miki Ando deserved to win the FS at 4CC because it seemed pretty obvious at the times and most observers would agree. But it could well be that after everything is counted, you found out you actually gave Asada a slight edge over Ando, something that never crossed your mind during the competition.

[museksk8r]

Au contraire, if they pile on the (deserved) UR calls, low PCS etc, that skater will not win so no "wrong" message is sent to Worlds. Selecting the champion with proper judging will ensure the best skater, and the right message, is sent to Worlds.

The world may understand and accept GOE inflation or variation at Nationals but not faulty Technical calls. Technical Panels can't get away with obviously off calls which are verifiable and will not be granted internationally. They hurt the credibility of more than the technical callers and do not improve the chances of medalling for the national champion or national team thus selected.

Thank you, my point exactly!

[Mathman]

I didn't say it was right. Just that it could happen.

[dorispulaski]

Interesting take on Nats. While Dornbush presented a better program, the Panel went for the "fun" Bradley brought to his programs.

I do believe different Panels bring in different Results.

We'll see how the 3 boys do in this very tough Mens Field.

That is true, except for Dornbush bringing a better program. He looks better on TV than he did live, IMO. In fact, I would have had Miner ahead of him significantly on PCS, and I would have had 2 of his jumps at 0 or -1, as did a couple of the judges. OTOH, I was on the opposite side of the rink from the judges, and sometimes that makes a significant difference in how you perceived the program.

These days, programs are not supposed to be judge-centric, but sometimes they are.

[Blades of Passion]

Joe, Joubert hasn't received high scores from the judges all season and he hasn't skated very well all season either. What makes you predict he'll be in form at Worlds (and score higher than Chan)?

[treeloving]

His jumps are awesome! And he has such a lyrical quality to his skating. He still a bit rough around the edges and his stamina needs to improve. Hopefully, this will come with age. But I think he has the potential to be the future of Japanese male skating, because like Dai, I sense a passion in him that I don't often see in Kozuka or Oda.

After I watched him live, I change my opinion on Kozuka's expressivity. He just has different kind of expression than Dai and Yuzuru but he is not inexpressive. Anyway, I prefer Dai and Yuzuru style.

Regarding Yuzuru, I hope he continue to improve other aspect of performance that is not jump which seems to be his focus right now. When he practice his speed is as good as Dai (except when he turn) and I can't really see that speed when in his performance. Anyway, he is just 16 and has time to improve.I hope what you said that he will be better on other aspect of skating as he get older would be true and hope he continue to skate with passion. If it is true I'm sure he will be future of Japan.

Apart from this,I also hope that he will change his costume designer next season!

[NMURA]

Yuzuru Hanyu meets Miyagi Prefectural Governor
http://hochi.yomiuri.co.jp/tohoku/sp...m?from=related

He says he wants to add new quad jumps to the repertoires.

Good luck!