What do you want to see at Worlds ...Ladies

[Lucky Star]

To counter Asada, Kim will need the extremely difficult 3loop. If she doesn't fall or pop, Kim can narrow the base value gap with Asada to 6 points. But don't expect huge PCS advantages. IT'S IN TOKYO. In cases of "away" competitions, you cannot win by PCS only. Even for the case of controversial Skate America, Murakami's TES was a little higher than Flatt.

It's not only about the jump content, it's about the quality of the jumps too. Asada's jumps at the 4CC weren't perfect at all, some were borderline (depends on the technical caller, next time she can get < for that), flutz. And even if she rotates her jumps, Kim (of course if she's in good shape) will get better GOE and she has 3-3 wich is a big question for Asada so far. Yes, Mao has her 3A, but I'm not so sure it's enough to beat Yuna. So I expect it to be close.
I don't really care which one of them will win as long as they come 1st and 2nd, I like both. I only want to see great performances and fair judging

[FlattFan]

Based on the new rules, Kim's (total) TES of past competitions would be like this.

Kim 2009 worlds 94.6
Kim 2009 TEB 99.2
Kim Olympics 107.7

Ando 2011 4CC 108.7
Asada 2011 4CC 103.4

We can say Ando has hit the limit with her current jump layout. In fact it's more like outrageous than generous, something comparable to Kim at Vancouver.

What are you smoking? Ando's TES should be about the same as Kim's TES. Both girls had 6 triples. Ando backloaded most of her jumps. If anything, her TES should be higher, and is higher. Kim should win on PCS. How is Ando's TES outrageous?

[Serious Business]

I decided to crunch the numbers myself on Yuna vs. Miki on technical element score. I'm limiting this analysis to just jumps and only with regards to the base marks. I am assuming there are no edge calls or URs (indeed both skaters have steered clear of those consistently now that Miki is skipping the 3flip):

Based on the jumps she landed at 4cc, Miki got 16.2 on jumps in the SP, and 44.36 on jumps on the FS.

With Yuna, it's hard to predict what jump layout she will use, since the new rules this season negates the jump layout she used for the past few seasons. So what I did was a very straight up substitution: instead of doing a 2axel/2toe/2loop (which would be one 2axel too many) I subbed in a 2lutz for the 2axel. This is by no means the most points she can achieve with jumps she's regularly doing, but it's one that most closely resembles her past jump layout and is within her capabilities. On jumps, Yuna would get 18.7 in the SP and 43.69 in the FS.

Miki's jumps in total: 60.56

Yuna's jumps in total: 62.39

Doing an extra triple in the SP is a huge technical advantage that cannot be underestimated.

It's much harder to forecast Asada's jump base marks, because she is prone to UR calls but not in a predictable way. She also consistently gets an edge call on the 3lutz, but the deductions on that come in the GOE not the base marks. So first I'm going to crunch the numbers as if she'd get no UR calls first and ignore the -goe...

For the SP, her jumps add up to 20.7. For the FS, her jumps add up to 49.76. That adds up to a total jump base mark of 70.46!

However, if one of her two planned 3axel gets a < call, she loses 2.5 points each. If the 3toe on her 2axel/3toe combo in the second half of the FS gets a < (which has happened a few times), she loses 1.32 points. She is also susceptible to < on pretty much any other jump. And is unlikely to make it out of the competition without a few < calls. Even with all the < calls at FCC, Asada's jump base values are actually ahead of Miki's. It's only when the GOE's are entered that Miki comes out ahead. But since this has happened multiple times this season, I think it's safe to say that Miki has a definite advantage.

As my above number crunching shows, Yuna can easily maintain her jump base value advantage over Miki despite the new rules. While Miki has proven that she maintains the jump advantage over Mao when GOEs are taken into account. I'd say Yuna doesn't have too much to worry about if she at least maintain her technical skills from the past season.

[jatale]

I'm wondering if Miki won't add a 3A at some point to her skating, she can do them I think. I also read somewhere that Yu-Na worked on the 3A a few years ago but didn't practice it because of her injuries at the time - perhaps she'll tackle it again at some point.

[sunny0760]

jatale , I highly doubt it.
Miki may as well add 3-3 than 3A. I don't know she can still do 4S but I think 3-3 may be possible.
Yuna clearly said she would not add 3A to her arsenal after the olys. I think there is a clip where she did a 2 footed 3A but there is no evidence she could secceed one. As this is her first competition this season, Yuna may not include 3L either but may include 3L because there is 3L< or she just can do it.

Thank you Serious Business for your informative post.
Anyway, do you agree this rule change restaining 2As and lowering the value of 2As? As it is one more rotation and there is 3A<, isn't the point difference beteen 2A and 3A too much? I understand more variety of triple jumps but should a really good 2A be given lower points than a bad 3A<?

Remember the great 2As from some past skaters. They were grand to see and better than many 2As/3As of current skaters.

Come to think of it, Yuna has never competed under the rule with < marks. At competitions, she has not attempted jumps which she is not 100% sure of. It's not like Takahashi, whose mindset mot explained about in other thread. Will < marks affect her? How about KSF? And is this < effect all positive to figure skating?

[Serious Business]

sunny0760 you are absolutely right that training a reliable, UR-free 3/3 would be more realistic for Miki than a 3a, while still boosting her score considerably. If Miki can consistently do a 3lutz/3loop in the SP, that's +3.3 points to her current SP base marks. And throwing her 4sal back in would be more doable than training a 3axel that she's never landed in competition. Even with a <, a 4sal is worth 7.4. Substitute that for her solo 3toe, and even with the -GOE she should still come out ahead. Any of these changes would require lots of training, stamina, reconfigured programs. So it won't be easy. But it's more doable than a 3a.

I have no problem with the point difference between 2axels and 3axels. A triple axel is so much more difficult than a double. The 5.2 point difference between them may not even do the 3axel justice. The 3axel is many orders of magnitude more difficult than the 2axel. Sure, it's just one rotation. But achieving that extra rotation has hampered countless gifted athletes and even more wannabes. That difficulty has to be rewarded.

I also don't have a problem with the value of the 2axel being lowered (although other jumps had their values adjusted, too). Just based on my observations the 2axel is so easy it's an afterthought for almost all figure skaters competing on the international level from juniors up. It struck me as being a little overvalued before.

And I also agree with the limits on 2axels in the FS. Skaters were regularly throwing 3 of them in a program, which is just a bit much.

And while I'm in an agreeable mood, I am heartily in favor of the new < rules. I've always railed against the downgrades where a 3axel downgraded to a 2axel would cost a skater more points than if she fell on a 2axel. In fact, even the current < rules are a bit harsh. I don't like the double penalty aspect of it, where both the base value scores are reduced and judges are supposed to take off -goe. In my opinion it should be done like edge calls, where the base values remain unchanged, and it's up to judges to deduct.

The < rule affects Yuna in that in the past, her consistency in not getting jumps downgraded gave her a safety cushion of points over her competitors who do get downgraded now and then. She has less of that cushion now, but it's still there!

Now all these rule changes affect Yuna negatively in some way. I agree with them and find them fair, but, here's a rule change I think is just as necessary and fair that would benefit Yuna:

Jump combos should have their base value multiplied by a factor so that it's worth more than doing the jumps separately. This is a no-brainer as doing jumps separately is a lot easier than doing them in combo, and the COP point system is supposed to reward and grade difficulty. Prior to the limit on 2axels, attaching triple jumps on the end of combos still benefited skaters like Yuna because they can free up jumping passes to do the 2axel and score some extra points. But with that option taken away, it's necessary to reward skaters capable of doing triple jumps after another jump in some other way.

[NMURA]

Rochette's PCS should've been ahead of Ando's, rather unquestionably. And again, why do you think Asada would've caught Rochette if Rochette was fourth in the SP? She beat Asada in the LP as well. Ando's PCS have been blatantly held up for years.

Rochette was THE favorite of the Olymic host.
Ando was the No.2 Japanese.

That makes a big difference in this sport. The ISU needed Rochette to make an Olympic medal contender, and that' why they squeezed her above Ando in Los Angeles. I'm pretty sure that Rochette was not given a world medal otherwise.

[NMURA]

It's not only about the jump content, it's about the quality of the jumps too. Asada's jumps at the 4CC weren't perfect at all, some were borderline (depends on the technical caller, next time she can get < for that), flutz. And even if she rotates her jumps, Kim (of course if she's in good shape) will get better GOE and she has 3-3 wich is a big question for Asada so far. Yes, Mao has her 3A, but I'm not so sure it's enough to beat Yuna. So I expect it to be close.
I don't really care which one of them will win as long as they come 1st and 2nd, I like both. I only want to see great performances and fair judging

The base value became more important under the new rules. As someone calculated, Asada has the BV advantage of 10 points to Ando and 9 points to Kim. As for last season, the gap between Asada and Kim was only 1.5 to 2.3 points (depending on the timing of Kim's 2A-3T). How Asada's rivals can narrow these gaps by so-called qualities and Asada's "expected" mistakes? That's the main focus of the competition. The audience factor can't be neglected. I expect Asada has the biggest advantage in this respect. I mean the technical panel would feel the pressure to refrain from close calls unfavorable for Asada, especially when it decides win or lose.

[jatale]

For those of us who are not informed, can someone quickly explain the rule changes that occurred after last year's World Championship? (Note: I think the idea of having a "World Championship" just a month or so after an Olympics is ABSURD! In an Olympic year, the Olympics should count as the World Championship! It doesn't take a genius to figure that out!!!!) If there is a website or a previous discussion thread here that clearly explains the rule changes, a pointer to them would be helpful. I'm also curious as to how these changes impact the current field of senior ladies, who is advantaged and who is dis-advantaged by the changes?

If the 3A is going to give a huge point advantage to female skaters who do them, that will force every female to learn them. I'm all for rewarding the 3A appropriately for its degree of difficulty but it could be a game changer, especially for the current field of senior ladies. The junior ladies might have the time to learn the jump before they enter senior level competitions and then the playing field will be level again. In the meantime, Mao will have a huge advantage over the entire senior field if she is the only skater capable of doing a 3A. Moreover, it could diminish the artistic aspects of skating while skaters concentrate on turning into jumping beans again.

[yangjie]

i wonder when yuna and mao did a perfect SP, who would be a winner,,,

based on news rules, even if she got a high score like Olympic , she could not beat mao

but,, maybe jugeds would give GOE +3 to yuna ?

[dlgpffps]

What I want to see..

* A lip or flutz getting 0 points for violation of Zayak rule
(I don't have any skater particular in mind. I just hate seeing 3 same triple jumps. )

In my dream world.... Just don't think partial credit does enough to force rising skaters to develop correct technique. It's frustrating that a lutz with an edge call still gets as much as a correct flip. It's unfair for the current crop of skaters to be over-penalized for technique mastered years ago (although it's certainly possible to correct, e.g. Joannie and Miki...), but something must be done so that skaters starting from scratch have reason to do it right.

[dlgpffps]

i wonder when yuna and mao did a perfect SP, who would be a winner,,,

based on news rules, even if she got a high score like Olympic , she could not beat mao

but,, maybe jugeds would give GOE +3 to yuna ?

Well if you re-calculate the Olympic scores to reflect the new changes, Yu-na gets 76.44 and Mao gets 72.80. Of course, this season Mao's brought the 3A to the program. Assuming Yu-na's scores stay the same and that Mao's layout doesn't change, Yu-na still beats Mao in the SP. I took Mao's 4CC LP 3A (+1.2x GOE) + the rest of her 4CC SP TES + Olympic PCS and got 71.56.

As long as Yu-na goes clean in the SP, I don't see anyone beating her. It's the LP where the other skaters play catch-up.

[ayayukiituka]

I don't know whether I can say exactly what I want to say in English,but I don't think it's good to have big points difference in SP. Basically considering what SP is like,it won't happen,I think.

[jatale]

I do think it's about time that the 3A becomes a standard element in ladies skating, the men have had it for many years now. Mao does a very nice one in competition and if she can do it then so can the other ladies. It may take a few years, but I'm expecting to see the 3A performed more and more often in the ladies competitions.

[dorispulaski]

Don't some of the up and coming Russian ladies do a 3A??