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Thread: What do you want to see at Worlds ...Ladies

  1. #316
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    Quote Originally Posted by prettykeys View Post
    wallylutz, I think you are misunderstanding me a little bit but this will be my last post on this subject because a) my criticism won't change the rules, and b) I feel bad for side-tracking this thread further in this direction while it gets sidetracked in another (Sasha vs. Shizuka.)

    I am sorry for picking on her considering her recent injury and withdrawal from this year's Worlds, but here is Laura Lepisto's FS jump layout from last year:

    3T+3T
    3Lz
    3Lo+2T
    2A
    3Lo
    2A
    2S+2T+2T

    Clearly Lepisto is capable of doing 3Lo's, but for some reason she only adds toe-loops as the second/third jumps in her combos. I find that odd.
    I think you are right, I am not understanding you very well. Re: Using 2T in lieu of 2Lo, is often a strategic consideration that has little to do with whether someone is comfortable with the loop jump or not. 2T vs. 2Lo are almost the same in Base Value, merely decimals in difference. However, in reality 2Lo is widely considered far more risky than a 2T in a jump combination where the additional risk taken on by the skater is not properly compensated by the small difference in Base Value. Risk of 2Lo vs. 2T has two levels. One being the fact that a 2T is easier to execute and is combinable even when the first jump, usually a difficult Triple is landed less than perfect. By contrast, a 2Lo is very hard to do if there is any minor wobble on the landing of the 1st jump. The second level is 2Lo also carries higher risk of being called as < or << than a 2T. More difficult to execute and higher probability of error, hence in a 3 jump combo/sequence, if 2Lo is included, it almost always is the 3rd jump, not the 2nd jump. Long story short, one's comfort with the Triple Loop jump has nothing to do with why he/she chooses to do 2T in lieu of 2Lo in a jump combo. Many coaches would advise their skaters to stick to 2T for better execution, meaning better chance of getting higher GOE, which would more than compensate for the difference in BV and less prone to be called by the Tech Panel, which would end up penalizing more than just a loss of BV, but negative GOE on the Triple in the combo as a whole, which could easily worth more than the BV of the double jump itself.


    Of course not; she was seen practicing it even in the 2009 season when she took it out of her LP. The point is, though, is that she may not be ready or willing to incorporate the 3Lo into her programs at this time yet. To reiterate the points before me, dismantling her 3-3 would be one way she could increase her scoring potential while keeping her current choice of jumps, which is silly.
    If an Olympic Champion is not ready to include the Triple Loop jump, 2 years after she last fell on it in a competition, then she deserves to be penalized for not having a full repertoire of Triples as she had more than plenty enough time to correct whatever issues she may have. As for the 2nd claim that dismantling her 3/3 would increase her scoring potential, that is simply not true. You are welcome to show me an example of how that is done and I will be happy to show you that the claim is bogus.

    First, I never believed that double jumps are subject to the Zayak rule, but said I think they should be. Second, there's a thought for YuNa. She should just declare her solo Axel to be an Intended 3Axel and just do the 2Axel and say it was merely popped. That's totally in line with the IJS's philosophy of scoring jumps as they are called/"intended" (e.g. "wrong-edge 3Lutzes" which are practically 3Flips evade the Zayak Rule )
    This will not work at all. It doesn't matter what she declared, it's what she actually skated that will count. Assuming she does a slightly over-rotated Double Axel and claim it's a Triple Axel attempt. The Technical Panel has a couple of choices:

    1) Call it as a 2A, and if it's her third 2A in the program or that she later includes a 3rd 2A somewhere, in combination or otherwise, the element that included the 3rd 2A will be voided.

    2) Call it as a 3A<<, although she will successfully receive the BV of a 2A as a result, she risks falling and other potential errors. Also, the << sign plus any other executional issue almost guarantees nothing but -3 and -2 GOE. Personally, I would go with a -3. If so, she is better off doing a clean Double Lutz.

  2. #317
    Six Point Zero Krislite's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by wallylutz View Post
    [...] As for the 2nd claim that dismantling her 3/3 would increase her scoring potential, that is simply not true. You are welcome to show me an example of how that is done and I will be happy to show you that the claim is bogus.

    [...]
    Consider the following jump layouts. Let us omit the jump types (T, S, L, F, Lz), suppose the following jump layouts abide by the Zayak rule, and that they constitute the exact same set of triples, including the same types repeated (hence identical base values, disregarding 1/2 bonus marks):

    3+3
    3
    3+2
    2A+2+2
    3
    3
    2A

    ----------
    3+2
    3
    2A+3
    3+2+2
    3
    3
    2A

    Would you not agree that the second layout omitting the triple-triple has greater maximum GOE potential than the first layout with the triple-triple? After all, in the first jump layout, there are TWO jumping passes consisting only of double(s), whereas in the second layout only one jump pass is a double. [The new rules factoring the GOEs on jumps and jump combos restrict the maximum GOEs a skater gets based on the highest valued jump in the combo.]

    In particular, I have the following examples in mind since it has been claimed to be Yu-na's jump layout at worlds:

    3Lz+3T
    3F
    3S+2T
    2A+2T+2L
    3Lz
    3S
    2A
    ----------
    3Lz+2T
    3F
    2A+3T
    3S+2T+2L
    3Lz
    3S
    2A

    The two jump layouts above are identical in jump contents, but the second one omits the triple-triple combo. In fact, the second layout is slightly higher in base value once we take the 1/2 mark bonus into account. Add in the maximum GOE potential, and you get a jump layout that has higher base value and higher GOE potential.

    Nevertheless, people who have observed Yu-na's recent training say she will go for the harder but less valuable jump layout (the first example).
    Last edited by Krislite; 03-10-2011 at 02:35 AM.

  3. #318
    Six Point Zero Krislite's Avatar
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    My post above has led me to the following theorem (I dare anyone to disprove it):

    THEOREM: Given any CoP-compliant 7-triple jump layout with two triple-triple combinations, two double axels and one 3-jump combination, one can rearrange the layout of the jumps such that you get at least the same base value and a higher GOE potential by removing both triple-triple combinations. (We disregard the 1/2 bonus mark without loss of generality)

    PROOF: A 7-triple jump layout with two 3x3s, two 2A's and a 3-jump combo will have one of the two following layouts (exact order of jump passes is inconsequential):

    3+3
    3+3
    2A+2+2
    3
    3
    3
    2A

    OR

    3+3
    3+3
    3+2+2
    2A
    3
    3
    2A

    Take either one of the above layouts and now change it so that each triple-triple becomes a 2A+3 combo, while rearranging the jumps according to the Zayak rule. Then you have

    2A+3
    2A+3
    3+2+2
    3
    3
    3
    3

    This new jump layout clearly has at least the same base value since it's the exact same jumps but rearranged to form different combos. But its GOE potential is higher because every jumping pass has at least a triple.

    -----------

    Anyone care to give a counterexample? The above theorem generalizes what I stated in the previous post about Yuna's potential jump layout.

    Here's an example. Suppose this is Yuna's ultimate jump layout:

    3Lz+3T
    3F+3T
    3S+2T+2L
    3Lz
    3L
    2A
    2A

    Then we can rearrange those exact same jumps to get at least the same base value but higher GOE potential:

    2A+3T
    2A+3T
    3Lz+2T+2L
    3Lz
    3F
    3L
    3S

    As you can see, this jump layout has exactly the same jumps (so the same base value). But there is no triple-triple, and is considerably much easier to execute. And since there is a triple in every jumping pass, GOE potential is higher.
    Last edited by Krislite; 03-10-2011 at 11:16 AM. Reason: Added an example

  4. #319
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    Krislite, send this post to ISU so that they'll change the rules (again)! There should be rules that 1) reward the second jump of a combo higher by x1.1 etc. and 2) GOE points are given to 3-3 > 3-2 (or 2-3) > 2-2.

  5. #320
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    Quote Originally Posted by hikki View Post
    Krislite, send this post to ISU so that they'll change the rules (again)! There should be rules that 1) reward the second jump of a combo higher by x1.1 etc. and 2) GOE points are given to 3-3 > 3-2 (or 2-3) > 2-2.
    My problem with the ISU rules is that there is too much emphasis on the jumps and technical content. It does not leave enough room for the artistry. Competitions have become too much of a jumping competition. They should redress the balance by awarding more marks for original and greater artistic content and the execution of it. Moreover, the rules as they stand provide too much encouragement for skaters to attempt jumps that are beyond their physical capabilities or which increase the likelihood of injury. How long will it be before 3A's become standard in ladies competitions and how long will it be before one of them attempts a 4L or a 4S? That really would cause more problems with injuries than its worth. I think there should be limits on what jumps are allowed and any future rule changes should be confined to encouraging more artistic content.
    Last edited by oksanafan; 03-10-2011 at 12:25 PM.

  6. #321
    can't come down to Earth prettykeys's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by wallylutz View Post
    If an Olympic Champion is not ready to include the Triple Loop jump, 2 years after she last fell on it in a competition, then she deserves to be penalized for not having a full repertoire of Triples as she had more than plenty enough time to correct whatever issues she may have.
    Joannie Rochette is the only one of the top 5 ladies in recent memory who successfully and cleanly did a full repertoire of ladies' standard triples. But you know what, you are right, YuNa Kim should be penalized because she is Olympic Champion and likes to do 3-3's. (The emoticon means I am being sarcastic. Just in case you didn't understand. Like my satirical comment about the "popped 3A" --> 2A, which never was a real suggestion but rather a jab at the inconsistency of the IJS.)

  7. #322
    Like subtlety in ice dancing Serious Business's Avatar
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    Must... resist... getting.. drawn... into... past...

    ::resistance crumbles::

    Newsflash: None, zero, zilch of the Olympic ladies champions ever landed all 5 triples cleanly in their Olympics FS. With Katarina Witt and before ladies weren't even doing all 5 triples. Kristi Yamaguchi couldn't salchow (may have been a flutzer too). Baiul had all sorts of little mistakes in her FS. Lipinski flutzed, Hughes, too. Shizuka Arakawa is a lipper. In fact, Yu Na Kim is the first ladies skater to win the Olympics with totally clean jumps in the FS in the era of triples (no edge errors no under rotations no two footed landings no nothing).

    Also whoever said Shizuka Arakawa is an unmemorable Olympics champion? That is so wrong I don't even know where to begin. To people outside Japan, yes her win wasn't that special because she did just enough to win (what people missed is that she psyched out the competition with 3/3s and 3/3/3s in practices until they were wrecks and made mistakes in the competition). But in Japan, Shizuka Arakawa's Olympic victory is the most significant event in the history of figure skating there. Up until that point in the Turin Olympics, Japan had failed to win even a single medal. Japanese media blasted that news nonstop and people were gnashing their teeth and bashing their heads on walls in despair. Then what happens? In one of the last days of the competition, Arakawa sweeps in and wins the gold medal in the most watched and prestigious event of the Olympics, turning the entire Olympics around for Japan. Shizuka became the biggest celebrity and hero in Japan that year. Anything she skated to became hits. The term "ina bauer" was one of the most used phrases that year. The current and ongoing boom in figure skating in Japan was started by Shizuka's Olympics win.

    To put it into perspective, Shizuka's Olympics win was, in terms of what it did for skating's popularity in a country, equivalent to the Tonya/Nancy knee whack in the US. Take a country where skating is already popular, but not overwhelmingly so (the US already had skating stars in Boitano and Yamaguchi at that time, and Japan was fascinated with Mao Asada's potential in 2006). Then throw in a huge skating related headline that dominates the media. Then have talented and media-friendly skaters carry the torch after the event to keep interest alive in the sport (the US had Kwan, Lipinski, Cohen after The Whack. Japan has Mao, Daisuke, Miki and more). And suddenly figure skating becomes a newly opened gold mine in that country. Of course, unlike the Knee Whack, Shizuka's win is an entirely positive event which works even better.

    But what Shizuka's win did is important outside Japan too. Japan is now the #1 destination for top skaters go tour and make money. It's pumping millions and millions into the sport and funding skaters from all over the world. It's keeping the sport alive while its popularity has tanked in the US. Skating's mainstream popularity in Japan also eggs on the Mao/Yuna rivalry in South Korea, which helps keep the sport in the headlines in Korea too.

    Now part of all this is that Shizuka was in the right place at the right time (and then delivered). In Turin it could've been any Japanese lady who won unexpectedly. If some other Japanese competitor at those Olympics made it onto the podium before, Shizuka's win would not have been as huge an event. But it happened the way it did. And as a result Shizuka Arakawa's Olympic win is the most influential event in figure skating since the Salt Lake City pairs controversy.

  8. #323
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    Quote Originally Posted by prettykeys View Post
    Joannie Rochette is the only one of the top 5 ladies in recent memory who successfully and cleanly did a full repertoire of ladies' standard triples. But you know what, you are right, YuNa Kim should be penalized because she is Olympic Champion and likes to do 3-3's. (The emoticon means I am being sarcastic. Just in case you didn't understand. Like my satirical comment about the "popped 3A" --> 2A, which never was a real suggestion but rather a jab at the inconsistency of the IJS.)
    The so called 3/3 penalty is debunked here:

    http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/sho...nder-CoP/page2

    Krislite's mathematical proposition has been demonstrated as incorrect, even in the context of ladies skating. The whole penalty for 3/3 thing is an interesting proposition that doesn't seem to hold in reality - in other words, the so called penalty:

    1) Can be avoided, and not with great difficulty
    2) Everything else being equal, is so tiny (0.2 point up to 0.6 point maximum) in theory that would likely to be mitigated by the fact an impressive 3/3 is more likely to impress the judges emotionally for higher GOE than a bland 3/2
    3) 3/3 provide a number of advantages that has been shown quantitatively that more than compensates for the tiny theoretical disadvantage that stems from the GOE potential.

    That's why team Yu-Na doesn't plan to change her jumps layout, there is no point.

  9. #324
    Yuna's Ice Rink cooper's Avatar
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    Well, the Worlds 2011 is in limbo, Blades can you tell us about Yuna's programs in details now? Besides we don't know if she's going to compete.

  10. #325
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    continuing on the subject, now that LaCoste is in, I want to see her land a fully rotated 3Lo-3Lo combo. That would be awesome.

  11. #326
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    I'd love to see Korea get 3 spots for next year. I know it's probably a stretch, but assuming Yuna medals I do think there is some chance MinJung could finish somewhere from 10th-12th if she skates well, and that would mean 3 spots. I'm not really expecting much but MinJung has been jumping/skating a lot better at her recent competitions and put up some pretty solid scores which could correlate to a top 10-12 finish at Worlds depending on how others do.

  12. #327
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    With Worlds not even in Japan anymore I think Yu Na Kim would need a disaester to not win gold. The idea of Miki Ando beating even a semi clean Kim in Europe is....well laughable to be honest, and Asada hasnt even been able to beat Ando in recent competitions (though I think she has a better chance too on netural ground). I think the 2nd Korean girl is good enough to come 12th if she has a really good competition which is all she will need.

  13. #328
    Custom Title Joesitz's Avatar
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    I want to see:

    Laura Lepisto because she is the best blade-to-ice skater of today. Her stroking is amazing. BUT she's apparently out of the competition for injuries.

    Yuna Kim because I haven't seen her under the spell of Los Angeles.

    Mao Asad to confirm that what she did at 4CC she can do all the time. Heavenly

    Caroline Kostner because it has been a while since the GPs where she showed incredible talent and performance.

    The rest of the Field is pretty much what I have been seeing. I do not expect anything extraordinary for them.

  14. #329
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    Thumbs up

    I am hoping that Allissa Czisny performs to best capabilities in this competition. When she is on, she is the epitome of style and grace that befits the sport from an artistic standpoint. While I do not expect to see a triple axle triple toe from her, she does make the ladies competition very enjoyable to watch.

  15. #330
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    When will we start getting reports on how the skaters are looking from their practice sessions in Russia? Who is admitted to the practice sessions? Do the judges sit and watch the practice sessions or are they confined to watching the competitions only? What about the press?

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