What do you want to see at Worlds for the Men?

pangtongfan · Apr 22, 2011

blue_idealist said:
I think Russell will get around 20th place. I think he was 14th at 4CC, although it might have been 17th and I'm too lazy to go check the results again. He probably should get higher PCs than Reynolds though even if he doesn't. I don't think this will be his only Worlds though. Sawyer's retiring so he has a good chance of making the podium again next year. Only Chan will for sure beat him at Nationals next year (although Reynolds and Rogozine have a good chance to).

I have a feeling the CSA will start pushing some of the younger up and comers. They dont really like Reynolds for some reason but he has a good shot to make future teams too, and beyond that the up and comers will get priority. Russel isnt young anymore, and he still doesnt even have a solid triple axel or get high PCS internationally so I dont see him getting much backing. Unless he does surprisingly reasonable (eg- top 15) at Worlds this year I dont see him being put on another World team.

Then again they might decide with Chan they dont need to worry about who the other team members are for awhile and have enough time to find their future star, and as I mentioned the CSA clearly does not like Reynolds (it is obvious in how he is scored at Canadians, even considering his mistakes) so maybe Russel does have a shot to keep making future teams after all.

Violet Bliss · Apr 23, 2011

pangtongfan said:
I
Then again they might decide with Chan they dont need to worry about who the other team members are for awhile and have enough time to find their future star,

Chan is younger than his teammates and good for quite a few years. Little Nam Nguyen is very ambitious and on a fast track. Canada somehow always has had extremely talented men to carry the torch.

pangtongfan · Apr 23, 2011

Chan will almost certainly be retiring after 2014 though, so that gives them another 3 years to find the heir apparent.

blue_idealist · Apr 23, 2011

pangtongfan said:
I have a feeling the CSA will start pushing some of the younger up and comers. They dont really like Reynolds for some reason but he has a good shot to make future teams too, and beyond that the up and comers will get priority. Russel isnt young anymore, and he still doesnt even have a solid triple axel or get high PCS internationally so I dont see him getting much backing. Unless he does surprisingly reasonable (eg- top 15) at Worlds this year I dont see him being put on another World team.

Then again they might decide with Chan they dont need to worry about who the other team members are for awhile and have enough time to find their future star, and as I mentioned the CSA clearly does not like Reynolds (it is obvious in how he is scored at Canadians, even considering his mistakes) so maybe Russel does have a shot to keep making future teams after all.

Regardless of who SC decides to 'push', if Russell podiums at Nationals and we have 3 spots, he'll get sent. Skate Canada has consistently, at least in recent years, sent the top 2 or 3 finishers to worlds regardless of if they were the favourites of the fed or not.

I don't think they would go so far as to manipulate the nationals results in order to have someone else go instead of Russell.

ImaginaryPogue · Apr 23, 2011

pangtongfan said:
I have a feeling the CSA will start pushing some of the younger up and comers. They dont really like Reynolds for some reason but he has a good shot to make future teams too, and beyond that the up and comers will get priority. Russel isnt young anymore, and he still doesnt even have a solid triple axel or get high PCS internationally so I dont see him getting much backing. Unless he does surprisingly reasonable (eg- top 15) at Worlds this year I dont see him being put on another World team.

Then again they might decide with Chan they dont need to worry about who the other team members are for awhile and have enough time to find their future star, and as I mentioned the CSA clearly does not like Reynolds (it is obvious in how he is scored at Canadians, even considering his mistakes) so maybe Russel does have a shot to keep making future teams after all.

There was an interesting article posted about the run-up to the 2007 worlds. It pointed out that Skate Canada, as a rule, took a largely hands off approach to the development of upper echelon-level talent, and that actually came to bite them hard when Bourne/Kraatz retired. Given how hard they've been flogging Chan (one of the things I consistently read is that the federation as a high presence at many meets and stuff), I think they've learned their lesson. That stated, I do think Nguyen is the one they're thinking about to replace Chan. He's already had two showcase skates at notable events (4CC 2009, Olympics 2010). As long as he seeks someone else to teach him the 3A....

ImaginaryPogue · Apr 24, 2011

Ah.. Thanks. I wondered if I was off-base with that comment.

BackStage Barbie · Apr 24, 2011

I"m predicting 1) Chan 2) Takahashi 3) Kozuka 4) Oda and 5) Joubert. I think that Verner Amodio Bradley Gachinski and Dornbush will round out the rest of the top 10 in some shape or form.

Here is my full preview of the Mens event

http://backstagebarbie.blogspot.com/2011/04/2011-world-figure-skating-championships_16.html

ImaginaryPogue · Apr 25, 2011

I think you meant Canadian Nationals, not Skate Canada, in your write-up for Chan.

Right now, I'm thinking Chan-Takahashi-Joubert for the podium.

silverlake22 · Apr 25, 2011

Apparently, both Oda and Verner are attempting quads in the SP. This should shake things up a bit if they pull them off.

Joesitz (RIP) · Apr 25, 2011

silverlake22 said:
Apparently, both Oda and Verner are attempting quads in the SP. This should shake things up a bit if they pull them off.

I've seen Oda do a very nice quad somewhere, and I think most of the boys will be attempting Quads.

BackStage Barbie said:
I"m predicting 1) Chan 2) Takahashi 3) Kozuka 4) Oda and 5) Joubert. I think that Verner Amodio Bradley Gachinski and Dornbush will round out the rest of the top 10 in some shape or form.

The biggest upset at Mens Division will be if Bradley nabs a 5th place; and Dornbush nabs an 8th place. That would be the American Dream.

silverlake22 · Apr 25, 2011

Joesitz said:
I've seen Oda do a very nice quad somewhere, and I think most of the boys will be attempting Quads.

The biggest upset at Mens Division will be if Bradley nabs a 5th place; and Dornbush nabs an 8th place. That would be the American Dream.

In the FS yes, but not in the SP. Kozuka and Takahashi won't go for the quad in the SP, neither will Brezina, Amodio, etc. Chan, Joubert, Gatchinski, Bradley are the only ones I know of that plan to go for the quad in the SP, maybe KVDP too but it seems like he changes up his jump layouts a lot. What I'm saying is if Oda and Verner can skate clean with 4-3 in the SP, there is a good chance they will score higher than a clean Kozuka SP and about the same as a clean Takahashi SP considering the latter two will not be attempting quads in the SP. Realistically they could probably both score higher than clean Joubert too just where Joubert's SP is not so great and he's had issues with it all season.

Violet Bliss · Apr 25, 2011

I agree with silverlake. Quad is a huge portion of SP scores if landed and will likely determine the LP order of skate. In the LP and total scores, they may be somewhat mitigated by all other elements and components. Thus, the underdogs with Quads in SP are wildcards and potential spoilers.

over all, I estimate the placements by going with the PCS, then adjust by TES depending mostly on jump successes.

silverlake22 · Apr 25, 2011

SkateFiguring said:
over all, I estimate the placements by going with the PCS, then adjust by TES depending mostly on jump successes.

Me too, and where Oda and Verner both have good SPs, if they land quads in them, then their PCS, which are usually good but not sky high, could go up even more because the programs would have more impact if skated clean with a quad combo (like how Oda finished ahead of Chan in the GPF SP after his electric performance). So this does shake things up a bit. The LP is still a big hurdle obviously, but for a skater like Oda or Verner, skating in the ultimate vs penultimate group could have a substantial effect on their PCS, which tend to vary and could be anywhere from low 70s to low 80s for the LP, depending.

herios · Apr 25, 2011

silverlake22 said:
Apparently, both Oda and Verner are attempting quads in the SP. This should shake things up a bit if they pull them off.

Could you please elaborate on this "apparently" ?? Where is this coming from?

Violet Bliss · Apr 25, 2011

Verner has announced his quad, a combo by necessity, in the SP. Unisport already reported a beautiful one at practice yesterday. Oda landed the best quad combo of the season in his SP and has been doing it in practice in Moscow.

silverlake22 · Apr 25, 2011

^^ yes exactly. Although I guess Tomas could be doing 4t out of steps and then 3lz-3t, but a practice report said he landed a gorgeous 4t-3t combo so I would assume that's the combo he's attempting in the SP.

sunny0760 · Apr 26, 2011

Verner and Oda going for 4-3 in SP? Great! What about Reynolds and Joubert? Of Bradley?
I expect some favorites doing great but some upsets would be nice too!!!!

Bluebonnet · Apr 26, 2011

sunny0760 said:
I expect some favorites doing great but some upsets would be nice too!!!!

Upset is upset. How can it be nice? :biggrin:

I hope there won't be upset.

herios · Apr 26, 2011

Bluebonnet said:
Upset is upset. How can it be nice? I hope there won't be upset.

There are people who root for underdogs. I am one of those, when I have a neutral approach and have no athlete I am rooting for. Just because upsets are adding to the excitement of the athletic event. if it is always a status quo, it gets predictible, therefore boring.

wonderlen3000 · Apr 26, 2011

sunny0760 said:
Verner and Oda going for 4-3 in SP? Great! What about Reynolds and Joubert? Of Bradley?
I expect some favorites doing great but some upsets would be nice too!!!!

Jouber and Bradley yes. Reynolds, no quad... he said he injured his hip or something in the CBC news articles and likely go safe.

What do you want to see at Worlds for the Men?

pangtongfan

Match Penalty

Violet Bliss

pangtongfan

Match Penalty

blue_idealist

ImaginaryPogue

ImaginaryPogue

BackStage Barbie

ImaginaryPogue

silverlake22

Joesitz (RIP)

silverlake22

Violet Bliss

silverlake22

herios

Violet Bliss

silverlake22

sunny0760

Bluebonnet

herios

wonderlen3000

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