If you look at the list of competitors at worlds, a large number of them have included quads in their programs, so the Risk issue is big for all of them doing this, including Bradley. And the risk to the non-quadders is that they now look the way Jason Brown looked at Jr. Worlds: a guy who's a good skater, but doesn't have the big required jump (3A in juniors). Americans, Canadians, Russian, French, and all the Japanese all have quad jump skaters. Who is going to be trying to sell the skills of the non-quadders this year? Americans with a foot in both camps? Support from the French for Amodio over Joubert? (and Amodio says he will be doing a quad?) Canadians supporting Sawyer over Chan ?
Bradley, SP & LP
van der Perren, SP&LP
Viktor Pfeifer, LP
Amodio now plans a quad
and even some alternates have shown quads this year
Guan of China LP (alternate)
Menshov (RUS) SP&LP (alternate)
and of course Kevin Reynolds SP&LP (alternate)
Those not trying a quad in the SP or LP
So I see the men's as a crap shoot from a predictions point of view, with Bradley being the wildest of the wildcards there.
In fact Bradley's risk of not landing his quad in the SP is lower than, for example, Takahashi's of landing his 4F (or 4T) . Why? Well, as Bradley said, he has been doing that SP all year in shows in rinks with very dark spotlights, in rinks made 40 foot short, in rinks with a huge Christmas tree in the middle of the rink for that matter. And he threw a quad in his Willy Wonka exhibition piece under spotlights. And two quads in each of the warmups for SP and LP. Not to mention in his practices. In previous years, it's been his 3A that has given him trouble-althought it didn't at US Nationals this year. Plus there's nothing particularly questionable about his choreo to Boogie Woogie Bugle Boy, a piece that many skaters and dancers have used over the years (including Delobel and Schoenfelder's OD to it, for that matter, which had its questionable moments). Bradley's BWB is just a soldier out dancing & having a good time. I fail to see the objection to this number.
It's his LP that looked unpracticed at US Nationals, because it was, and that's where I expect him to have problems. If he places high enough in the SP, he might well make top 6th to 10th, just because placing well in the SP often has that effect (same as Messing at Jr. Worlds, a skater who bombed the LP, and whose LP choreo was questionable.)
Last edited by dorispulaski; 03-11-2011 at 05:44 AM. Reason: Amodio is now adding a quad
Last edited by janetfan; 03-10-2011 at 11:35 AM.
In any case, CONGRATS TO MATHMAN FOR HIS HITTING 20,000 POSTS !!!!!!
Sorry to keep OT, but MM's average is 2,580 posts a year, which is about 7 posts a day, rain or shine!!
I love Ryan, but in no universe, even the "What do you want to see" universe, would I suggest Chan is battling Bradley (or vice versa), except in their beard growing project.
1) All 10's for all PCS marks from all judges, all jump passes getting full base value (ie, no "<", no "<<", no "e") and those jumps being those "expected" in that group (so ladies 3+3 and/or 3A and men at least 1 quad+3A in SP and 2 quads and 2 3As in LP), all spins graded at level 4, called step sequence graded at level 4 and all GOEs for jumps, spins, graded and choreographic step sequences getting a +3 GOE from every judge. NOTE: This has NEVER happened
2) PCS marks significantly higher than other skaters because he/she has skated their best and is clearly the class of the field across the board, all jump passes getting full base value and of the expectations of that group, all spins graded at least L3, called step sequence at least level 3 and no negative GOE for any item (all jumps, spins, step sequences 0 or higher)
3) PCS marks significantly higher than other skaters because he/she clearly outskated the field across the board, no visible defects on jumps that are considered "expected" (but maybe a small bobble on a couple landings that a couple judges catch, but full BVs), all spins graded at least L3, called step sequence at least level 3 and only a small smattering of negative GOEs.
4) PCS marks significantly higher than other skaters because he/she clearly outskated the field, no falls or pops, maybe one jump that upon review was deemed 70% but nothing clearly visible with jump content considered "expected", spins graded at least L3, called steps at least 2 and only a small smattering of negative GOEs mostly confined to the "<" jump
5) PCS marks significantly higher than other skaters because he/she clearly outskated the field, no falls or pops, "safe" jump content, spins graded at least L3, called steps at least 2, very small smattering of negative GOEs...
Which definition of perfect are we going with?
1. Joesitz, please point to a poster that stated that there is something wrong with clean programs. Otherwise that’s a straw man argument.
2. You’re the one that went from predicting Gachinski without facts to supporting Chan as a possible podium contender without stating “I was wrong.” Is that what you’re accusing here : “or do we suck up our wrong opinions and hide them?”
3. To restate my opinion
a. I’m either non-plussed (Dornbush, Miner) or actively don’t care for (Bradley) by the American world team. So how I hope they do is entirely based on the consequences on how they do (both on the podium/rankings and next season)
b. Consequently, I hope the American men are able to get two spots. Why? Three spots means that the people I’m rooting for didn’t skate well (Amodio, Brezina, Chan, Contesti, Fernandez, Joubert, Kozuka, Oda, Schlutheiss, Takahashi). I originally hoped for one spot, but again, that hope was predicated on the notion that dropping from three to one spot would force the federation to re-evaluate/change. However, if no change would come, then I’m not particularly rooting against the trio. Despite my feelings, I think the breadth is too strong to allow for only one entrant at worlds.
Dornbush and Miner are Newbies and not expected to be on the podium.
Bradley won the US championship and is ipso facto the odds on favorite to be considered America's best
Amodio's bumps and grinds don't amuse me. I saw them all 40 years ago.
Brezina is one of the few skaters with the flow of the music but he has been away far too long.
I consider Oda the best of the Japanese men, but I would not be surprised if all three compete with Chan for the podium.
Joubert might podium for sentimental reason.
If I am overlapping contestants for the podium, it's because the Field is HOT and if there is no meltdown, predictions can only be made on favorite nationalities.