Well, I agree with Mathman and Spun. It's not a matter of jazz or how old you can be when you choose jazz numbers. Rachael's LP does not sell. I'm not sure what's she's trying to be - cute? Sexy? Sensual? The program achieves neither. Her new SP on the other hand was one of the best moves a skater has done this season. I think Rachael has a sort of soulfulness and inner glow and just needs to let that shine through. She tries really hard and the acting stuff but it doesn't really bring out Rachael herself.
About Patrick, I also don't see that he skates through his music. In terms of movement itself, he definitely seems to listen to it and hits his notes. The problem is that he is not a natural performer like Daisuke or Ryan so his expression sort of ranges from blank to a little forced. You can see him trying though. From the point of view of competition, I see that as a minor weakness and I agree with Skatefiguring that he if does what he did at nationals he'll be unbeatable at worlds.
Also to be frank, I am not in love with Lori's programs for him. I do think the Phantom of the Opera one has some of those nice intricate moments and accents that Lori is so good at but it's not the most memorable choreo I've ever seen by a long shot. His SP was meant to get him to perform a bit more and while I think Patrick is rather good at some of the whimsy, the overall program gets on my nerves almost as much as Rachael's SP. A matter of taste, I suppose.
Last edited by fscric; 02-26-2011 at 04:09 PM.
It's one of those PCs that shouldn't be there along with Skating Abiity. They belong in Performance. JMO.
I do project Chan's chances of winning the Worlds this year as very high. Yes the ice is slippery but ultimately it's the mental strength that determines how much of a skater's known abilities he will bring on that slippery ice on that day of competition. I see Chan and Takahashi as the two strongest competitors today who can bring their best or close to it when the chips are down, in which case Chan's TES will blow Takahashi away even if Dai performed as well as at last worlds, the difference being the quads - Chan's 3 4Ts vs Takahashi's one underotated and two footed 4F.
Takahashi has the home advantage. He will have rabid crowd support and no jet lag. For the veteran the crowd's crazy love will likely be a tremendous energizer more than a pressure. He would love nothing more than winning the WC at home. He also usually peaks at season's end at the most important competition.
Chan is on a great projectory of his own. Riding on the specular success at the Nationals, which was a culmination of studied hard work, he may still have to peak yet. He has overcome putting the quads in competitions, landing them beautifully and going on to the rest of the programs without adverse after effects. He has figured out the pre-skate mental preparation that works great for him. This season he has also learned how to travel so he is less likely to be dragged down like he used to when competing overseas. He skipped the 4CC so he could be better rested and prepared for Worlds, even though he spent much of recent weeks doing community works in Canada. He still has room to improve that he wants to work on, and we know what he wants he gets, as far as skating techniques are concerned.
I look forward to the showdown. Some other skaters have the skills to surprise though they are not as reliable and driven as Chan and Takahashi at the biggest events. However, they are in the running and cannot be written out. I expect one Canadian and two Japanese at the podium, unless two of the top Men bombed, allowing a dark horse to rise up.
Last edited by SkateFiguring; 02-26-2011 at 07:27 PM.
If Patrick were a bit more reliable than I'd bet on him for sure but he's not Yuna - yet.
His great advantage this year is that he has the most reliable quads of any of the men. I still can't get over that! His quads are so fast in the air.
I still prefer Daisuke as a performer, and he has pretty awesome basic skating of his own. I really want one of the two of them to win. I doesn't really matter to me which one. I just want both to be magical.
We all have our favorites, and sometimes having a favorite can overwhelm the writer.
I would have a favorite in Brezina because of his musicality but he's been injured so I can't push him this season.
Patrick has a lot going for him. His feet with those long legs claw up the stroking which makes him look good, but his carriage if often uneven throughout the program. He makes me nervous. If he can stabilize his body and hit all the elements, he's definitely podium bound.
It's fine that you see flaws in Patrick's skating - so do I. But even with those flaws, I've seen Patrick's best performance of the season and I have yet to see any other man match it. Not even close.
Sorry about that, but one skate does not do it for me. It does impress me though, and I want to view the skater with another competition. In my case it wil be the World Championship.
In view of further exchanges while I was writing this, with interuptions, I'd add that what Layfan and myself have done here is just laying out the chances. Even my podium prediction was not specific on exact placements. I don't like to tempt the skating god whose sense of humour I am not wise to.
Brezina burst on the world scene with his jumps, not particularly noteworthy musicality. He has not followed up with performance reliability since while the super talented Kozuka and Oda have stepped up to be formidable competitors. Even if Brezina were healthy, he is still far from a safe bet for the podium, unless the stars align for a few top skaters to bomb and for him to bring the skate of his life.I would have a favorite in Brezina because of his musicality but he's been injured so I can't push him this season.
Patrick's stroking is indeed best in the world but his legs have sometimes been ridiculed as short and not what make him look good. His carriage is also one of the best, definitely an advantage over Oda, a major competitor.Patrick has a lot going for him. His feet with those long legs claw up the stroking which makes him look good, but his carriage if often uneven throughout the program. He makes me nervous.
He has hit all the elements more than anybody else and he has been on the podium in every competition he has taken part in this season.If he can stabilize his body and hit all the elements, he's definitely podium bound.
No I'm not overwhelmed by favoritism. I actually don't like to post my view of Chan's podium chances because these days it seems just another voice in the crowd whereas I orignally joined the forum to voice my contrary opinion about him at the height of harsh judgements due to his falls at the first 2 GP events, and when Chan bashers enjoyed their most justified glee. I've maintained the same reasoned perspectives and expectations which by now have played out, and which, with additional subsequent observations affording more current perspectives, are still in place to play out.
The skaters' skills and arsenals are known to all. The proverbial slippery ice will determine the actual outcome. To me, besides unexpected real life events, the slippery ice translates into the mental state of the competitors at the time they step on the ice. That's why I pick Takahashi and Chan to compare, as I believe they are the two with the greatest mental strength at the big events. As well, these two have the highest PCS, which are quite dependable from competition to competition.
I'd add that Takahashi and Chan are also likely the most motivated to win this WC, Chan having won two consecutive Silver and Takahashi competing at home as the current World Champ, possibly considering retirement from competitions. I'm not sure about Oda with his 4 Silvers this season! Must be frustrating to him but he also has confidence issue to begin with.
Last edited by SkateFiguring; 02-27-2011 at 03:06 PM.
I think many of the Chan haters are really insulting to Chan's skating. So you all expect him to fall 3-4 times eh? So all you remember is his falls and win? Well, maybe he won because he's the better skaters than those skaters didn't win? Really, GET OVER IT ALREADY! I guess haters are gonna hate.
I hope I'm gonna put this right, so that I will not sound sarcastic - coz I don't mean to be.
On a personal note, I am inclined to love so-called headcases, as their sensitivities and overloaded emotions sometimes create truly memorable performances, then make me care less about the scores and final placement. Talking about Daisuke, I prefer his Olympic free skate with a number of mistakes, some big and some minor, to the near-perfect skate at the Torino Worlds; the former was personally more moving, I thought I could see and feel whatever was going through his mind while skating. (Too much involvement emotionally, I know...)
I do love to see this in all skaters ended up on the podium. Less mistakes - yes please, but also performances that touch people's hearts and souls - even more so.
I am such a chicken that have been avoiding to make predictions - remembering about 08 Worlds, when Daisuke went in as a clear favourite after nailing 2 quads and everything else (except 3Lo stepping out) at 4CC, and ended up off the podium, and 09 Worlds, when Evan winning as the third man from the US...
Last edited by mot; 02-28-2011 at 07:46 AM. Reason: deleted podium predictions as this is not a thread to do so.