Ladies - Long Program

[FlattFan]

Flatt and Zhang got those scores before the GOE had been altered and there were still spirals, and also the competition wasn't as steep. Surely if Liza and Adelina were to skate in the same competition as junior Flatt and Zhang, they'd not Flatt and Zhang down a few pegs just by comparison. They are superior to Flatt and Zhang on every level and if we're talking about Christina, at this point, she'd definitely far superior to Zhang. Flatt has managed to maintain her position as one of the top US ladies which is impressive so really the fact that she won Jr. Worlds just proves what a good competitor she is.

If you remember correctly, GOE wasn't particularly inflated until 2009 when everyone started getting 130+ for 4 triples. The new rule adjust the total score back down to pre-2009. Shiz didn't even get as good a score as Laura Lepisto at their respective Olympics. So Flatt and Zhang did not receive generous and inflated score for their events.

Shelepen is a bit of a mess right now but she has all the tools she needs to be a top contender in coming years. She just needs to get adjusted to her new body, get a real choreographer, clean up her spins, and skate to music/get programs that accentuate her long limbed physique and make her seem graceful and balletic instead of gangly. Her look is really very similar to that of Kostner as a teenager, and if she could emulate Kostner in her skating as well, then she could be great.

She's no where near Kostner. Kostner at her age got PCS like a seasoned medal contender. Kostner's jumps were gorgeous. The landing on most of Shelepen's jumps are crashy and awkward. Notice her GOE is almost 0 for all of her jumps. More and more jr girls are passing her by. At the senior level, she's hopeless.

Gao like Polina just needs to learn how to use her new body to make her skating look more elegant instead of awkward and ungainly, and that will come in time, because already this season she's a lot smoother and mature in her skating compared to last season. Her spins still need work but they are improving and I'm sure she'll continue to work on that, and at least she's getting her levels.

Things can change a lot over the course of a season, especially with girls this age, so we might have a very different outlook come this time next year. For now, I'm just excited to see them all skate next season.

This, I agree.

[silverlake22]

If you remember correctly, GOE wasn't particularly inflated until 2009 when everyone started getting 130+ for 4 triples. The new rule adjust the total score back down to pre-2009. Shiz didn't even get as good a score as Laura Lepisto at their respective Olympics. So Flatt and Zhang did not receive generous and inflated score for their events.


She's no where near Kostner. Kostner at her age got PCS like a seasoned medal contender. Kostner's jumps were gorgeous. The landing on most of Shelepen's jumps are crashy and awkward. Notice her GOE is almost 0 for all of her jumps. More and more jr girls are passing her by. At the senior level, she's hopeless.


This, I agree.

Polina's jumps aren't the best, but I'd say they are pretty good. And they were better last season before she grew so much, so maybe once she adds a bit more muscle her jumps will get better again. I think her coach and lack of a real choreographer are her biggest problems - she's been with the same coach since she started skating, at age 4. Time for a change, I say, if she wants to have a shot at a good future.

And I don't think Kostner was getting that great marks at 15, at 17 yes, but not as young as 15. And I didn't say Polina was as good as Kostner at her age, just that they had a similar physique and so Kostner would be someone smart to look to if Polina wants to learn to be more elegant and use her very long limbs to her advantage. Because right now, Polina's long legs and arms make her spins look messy and her movements look rushed, but when she isn't skating, she looks gorgeous, so I think her skating could look nice too with proper packaging. Hence why a new coach/choreographer could be beneficial.

Polina still has time and next season is a great opportunity for her because Liza and Adelina won't be old enough for Euros and Worlds but she will, and her main competition will be Leonova, Makarova, Birukova, Ovcharova, Sheveleva, and Agafonova who she is more comparable with and has beaten more often than not over the past couple seasons (not Leonova as they haven't competed against each other much, but the rest).

[seniorita]

I just watched the top three and I m thrilled, ladies will be my fav discipline

bravo to the girls!

[shine]

And I didn't say Polina was as good as Kostner at her age, just that they had a similar physique and so Kostner would be someone smart to look to if Polina wants to learn to be more elegant and use her very long limbs to her advantage.

Pinky, just because Polina has similar physique to Kostner doesn't make her similar to her in skating. Kostner already had some of the best skating skills in the world at 15, if Polina wants to ever be like Kostner, she has a long long way to go.

[silverlake22]

Pinky, just because Polina has similar physique to Kostner doesn't make her similar to her in skating. Kostner already had some of the best skating skills in the world at 15, if Polina wants to ever be like Kostner, she has a long long way to go.

True, but at least Carolina would be someone smart for her to try and emulate because she has a similar build but doesn't look gawky and awkward like Polina often does. Polina's current programs do nothing for her and just make her look more ungainly than she is, but it doesn't have to be this way, if she could get the right kind of choreography and programs, her skating could look nice even though she's all limbs and doesn't have the skating skills of Kostner. Frantic Russian folk music is not the right vehicle for her at all though, that's what I'm trying to say. The Swan Lake might have even been ok for her had she not chosen that weird hip-hop version that changed drastically in the middle. She has a lot to work on in her skating, but even now, her skating could look a lot better than it does just with better packaging, IMO.

[BackStage Barbie]

True, but at least Carolina would be someone smart for her to try and emulate because she has a similar build but doesn't look gawky and awkward like Polina often does. Polina's current programs do nothing for her and just make her look more ungainly than she is, but it doesn't have to be this way, if she could get the right kind of choreography and programs, her skating could look nice even though she's all limbs and doesn't have the skating skills of Kostner. Frantic Russian folk music is not the right vehicle for her at all though, that's what I'm trying to say. The Swan Lake might have even been ok for her had she not chosen that weird hip-hop version that changed drastically in the middle. She has a lot to work on in her skating, but even now, her skating could look a lot better than it does just with better packaging, IMO.

Carolina is plenty gawky and awkward and she too is all limbs.

[Lucky Star]

IDK, I think Polina improved a lot and her Swan Lake program now suits her very well, though at the beginning of the season I didn't think it's a good idea. She seems more polished and less awkward in it, and growing up actually made her better. I think the next few years she can become a lovely elegant skater with her own style. And knowing how hard it was for her, with this growth spurt, injury and problems with eyesight, I can only say her coach did a great job, because Polina not only didn't lose her skills, but even improved. Now only time can tell what will happen to her.
BTW, Alexei Urmanov (he was at JW with his students Bush and Gorshkov) said a few words about junior ladies. He thinks that except Liza and Adelina only Christina Gao may have a chance to be a contender in future, others didn't impress him at all

[silverlake22]

IDK, I think Polina improved a lot and her Swan Lake program now suits her very well, though at the beginning of the season I didn't think it's a good idea. She seems more polished and less awkward in it, and growing up actually made her better. I think the next few years she can become a lovely elegant skater with her own style. And knowing how hard it was for her, with this growth spurt, injury and problems with eyesight, I can only say her coach did a great job, because Polina not only didn't lose her skills, but even improved. Now only time can tell what will happen to her.
BTW, Alexei Urmanov (he was at JW with his students Bush and Gorshkov) said a few words about junior ladies. He thinks that except Liza and Adelina only Christina Gao may have a chance to be a contender in future, others didn't impress him at all

Yay Christina! I agree with this, although Liza I'm a bit worried about where she is still so little! Adelina was more consistent this season than last season even though she grew a few inches and filled out, so even though she'll probably grow some more, that is a good sign at least. I just watched the exhibition from JW and one thing I'll say about Liza, she is so theatrical and charismatic! I couldn't take my eyes off her, she's really pretty, a great performer, and has this playful twinkle in her eye that makes you want to watch, which is really rare in a girl so young. So that is definitely one asset Liza has and in that sense I think she's a bit like Yuna. Anna's charisma made me a big fan last season, but Liza has just as much on top of better jumping technique so really she is the whole package. Adelina is expressive too, but in a more reserved way, which seems to work with her classical style.

I like the beginning of Polina's swan lake program, but then when the music changes, it gets frantic and her movements seem rushed and sloppy. Slower music might be a better choice for her. I remember liking her Adagio SP she had last season, though she switched that after the JGPF for an MJ medley program which was much worse, IMO.

[wallylutz]

After seeing the youtube clips of some of the top ladies FS, I have to say I feel a little underwhelmed by all the hype re: the Russian ladies. Although there is no question about the placements here, the only thing that really caught my eyes is Adelina's Triple Lutz+Triple Loop combo. Her 3Lo is higher than her 3Lz which is really impressive.

With that said, all ladies here still look like they are just junior skaters, even the jumps. The Russian ladies have some big jumps but in terms of their quality, they are still young. Many of those jumps are not as high or as powerful as some of the current senior skaters. Adelina seems to be the best so I'll focus on her to make it easy but by no means am I picking on her and I'll be glad to state upfront that she leads the pack here. Aside from the opening jump combo, this is a skater that needs to develop many other technical aspects of her skating and by my estimation, at least another 2 years away in order to be competitive on the senior scene - assuming she can manage the expected puberty stage that will likely mess up her ability to jump. When people were gushing over her and other junior girls re: their jumping ability, I was hoping to see someone that jump with explosive energy that takes your breath away even at 13-14. Well, I am a little disappointed. All their jumps look small. Yes, they were fully rotated and fast but below average height and power, which is to be expected at this age so nothing out of ordinary but I was hoping to see another lady jumping like Midori Ito, who at 14, had a Triple Axel that would make most men cringe in shame. As for the other non-jumping aspects, I saw nothing memorable. Yu-Na Kim had more performance talent at their age & similar.

My hunch is that if these juniors are to become dominant one day, it will most likely be post-Sochi, after Asada, Kim and the current crop of top ladies decided to hang up their skates. I wish I could say it would be sooner but in all honesty, the hype is way overblown re: those junior girls.

[silverlake22]

^^ People were saying the same things about Murakami last season, and she was nowhere near as good as Adelina currently is, and probably not even as good as Liza, then, and yet she was a contender right out of the gate as she moved to the senior ranks. I know the field was somewhat empty this year with it being the post olympic year, but still. IMO, Adelina and Liza currently are a LOT better with many fewer flaws than Kanako last season, and if Kanako can be a force right away, you would only assume those girls will be as well, and even bigger forces at that.

[wallylutz]

^^ People were saying the same things about Murakami last season, and she was nowhere near as good as Adelina currently is, and probably not even as good as Liza, then, and yet she was a contender right out of the gate as she moved to the senior ranks. I know the field was somewhat empty this year with it being the post olympic year, but still. IMO, Adelina and Liza currently are a LOT better with many fewer flaws than Kanako last season, and if Kanako can be a force right away, you would only assume those girls will be as well, and even bigger forces at that.

I don't agree. Here are my two points:

1) Murakami has demonstrated qualities/improvements this year that these junior ladies do not have, notably her ability to project a presence on the ice, some call it effervescent, which is about right I think.

2) Success in junior ranks do not frequently translate into successful senior careers and the reverse is true, average junior results does not preclude phenomenal senior success later.

Can you say Kanako is still not as good as Adelina & Co. this year? I would have to say no. Last year is history, maybe because Kanako is older, more mature or maybe she has changed her diet (ok, the last one is a joke), the fact is Kanako Murakami has had a good transition into Senior because of some careful planning and smart strategy on the part of her coaching team. You'll note that Kanako doesn't have a Triple Lutz and is relying on her Triple Flip as the backbone of her program. More than that, she is also under-loading her program, jump wise, allowing her to focus more on performing as opposed to jumping. I found that many junior skaters made the mistake of overloading their program with difficult jumps and combos, thinking that it's the only way they can catch anyone's attention when transiting to Senior but that's wrong.

I was looking for some spark in these Russian girls that would demonstrate promise later on in their career and I am sorry to say I do not see one. In other words, I care less about what difficult Triple jumps they can do. Even last year, somebody showed us a clip from Korean Nationals of a girl who did Triple Lutz+Double Toe combo and won the Korean National at 12-13 year old and asked us what we think and whether that's impressive. My reply was the same, impressive jump for a girl of that age, but no spark.

Murakami, my opinion is more positive re: her skating. I can see why she managed to earn a spot on the Japanese World team, which is arguably the toughest Nationals to be at even though she doesn't have all her Triple jumps. A junior skater who has a full repertoire of Triple Jumps is just another skater who can jump but a Junior skater going Senior who demonstrate Senior-like skating quality is more rare and in my experience, will catch judges' attention more than anything else.

[Jammers]

After seeing the youtube clips of some of the top ladies FS, I have to say I feel a little underwhelmed by all the hype re: the Russian ladies. Although there is no question about the placements here, the only thing that really caught my eyes is Adelina's Triple Lutz+Triple Loop combo. Her 3Lo is higher than her 3Lz which is really impressive.

With that said, all ladies here still look like they are just junior skaters, even the jumps. The Russian ladies have some big jumps but in terms of their quality, they are still young. Many of those jumps are not as high or as powerful as some of the current senior skaters. Adelina seems to be the best so I'll focus on her to make it easy but by no means am I picking on her and I'll be glad to state upfront that she leads the pack here. Aside from the opening jump combo, this is a skater that needs to develop many other technical aspects of her skating and by my estimation, at least another 2 years away in order to be competitive on the senior scene - assuming she can manage the expected puberty stage that will likely mess up her ability to jump. When people were gushing over her and other junior girls re: their jumping ability, I was hoping to see someone that jump with explosive energy that takes your breath away even at 13-14. Well, I am a little disappointed. All their jumps look small. Yes, they were fully rotated and fast but below average height and power, which is to be expected at this age so nothing out of ordinary but I was hoping to see another lady jumping like Midori Ito, who at 14, had a Triple Axel that would make most men cringe in shame. As for the other non-jumping aspects, I saw nothing memorable. Yu-Na Kim had more performance talent at their age & similar.

My hunch is that if these juniors are to become dominant one day, it will most likely be post-Sochi, after Asada, Kim and the current crop of top ladies decided to hang up their skates. I wish I could say it would be sooner but in all honesty, the hype is way overblown re: those junior girls.

We will never see the likes of someone like Midori Ito in terms of jumping again in our lifetime.

[miki88]

Although it is true that junior success is not indicative of senior success, there are some things that can predict future success. Good technique and skating skills. These are two things that Adelina and Liza has, though Liza's not as strong in SS. However, they both have better technique on their jumps than Kanako does on hers. Also, I think Adelina has a presentation style that is well-received by the judges. In my opinion, she appears less juniorish than Kanako does now, even though both are charismatic.
Given the success that these two had on the junior level, I think it's likely that they will have at least the amount of success that Kanako has had in her first senior season.

[wallylutz]

Although it is true that junior success is not indicative of senior success, there are some things that can predict future success. Good technique and skating skills. These are two things that Adelina and Liza has, though Liza's not as strong in SS. However, they both have better technique on their jumps than Kanako does on hers. Also, I think Adelina has a presentation style that is well-received by the judges. In my opinion, she appears less juniorish than Kanako does now, even though both are charismatic.
Given the success that these two had on the junior level, I think it's likely that they will have at least the amount of success that Kanako has had in her first senior season.

You are again talking about jumps. If everytime someone talks about these Russian girls open and end with jumps, it would make them hard to sell. I believe some people thought these Russian girls were better than Kanako last year because they compared their jumps but not the other aspects of their skating. Sure, if you compare jumps, there is no question that the Russian girls win hands down.

The bottom line is I do not agree with a slightly better jumper at the junior level will necessarily translate into similar results at the Senior rank. In all honestly, even if we talk only about jumps, aside from the Triple Lutz-Triple Loop combo, I felt pretty underwhelmed. For one thing, they still make mistakes on other jumps, like Adelina stepping out badly on the Triple Flip so consistency is still not quite there, among other things. Not enough height or power is another. And yes, no Triple Axel.

At this rate, they are really shooting for the retirement of the current crop of top female skaters, which may mean they will have to wait until 2018 to see their day in the Olympics.

[miki88]

You are again talking about jumps. If everytime someone talks about these Russian girls open and end with jumps, it would make them hard to sell. I believe some people thought these Russian girls were better than Kanako last year because they compared their jumps but not the other aspects of their skating. Sure, if you compare jumps, there is no question that the Russian girls win hands down.

The bottom line is I do not agree with a slightly better jumper at the junior level will necessarily translate into similar results at the Senior rank. In all honestly, even if we talk only about jumps, aside from the Triple Lutz-Triple Loop combo, I felt pretty underwhelmed. For one thing, they still make mistakes on other jumps, like Adelina stepping out badly on the Triple Flip so consistency is still not quite there, among other things. Not enough height or power is another. And yes, no Triple Axel.

At this rate, they are really shooting for the retirement of the current crop of top female skaters, which may mean they will have to wait until 2018 to see their day in the Olympics.

But it's not like Kanako doesn't make mistakes on her jumps sometimes. And she isn't that consistent, esp not in her LP. However, since no female skater was that consistent this season, she benefitted a little. I talked about more things than just jumps though. Skating skills isn't akin to jumps. Personally, I feel Adelina skates a little more smoothly than Kanako does which makes her appear less juniorish. She also has better posture and lines.