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Thread: Joubert aiming for Worlds podium

  1. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joesitz View Post
    van der Perren does a quad quad combo, but does he get on the podium other than possibly Euros?

    It does make for many points in this winner-of-points-takes-all, but even at that, it needs a few extras. btw, I'm not in favor of partial credit or futile attempts at elements.

    How attempts affect the individual judges scoring is not well publicized. Just don't know about that.
    I'm with you. It'll be interesting to see im that long impressive list of those attempting quads how many actually land the quad and of those how many then go on to badly flub the rest of their programs. It still seems there are precious few skaters who can both land a quad consistently, plus not have major flaws in the rest of their skating, the way Yagudin and Plushenko did in 2002.

    Still, it is undeniable that the quad has resurged in a major way this season and I think that's great. Even so, it's not impossible to imagine Daisuke, for example, winning with a failed quad attempt and the rest of his skate perfectly, assuming that his main competitors like Patrick and Kosuka and Oda and whoever else mess up enough. It's not really my bet. I bet (and hope) the winner will have a clean, quad-included performance. But just saying. It seems like it still remains a huge challenge to be able to land two quads in a free skate plus meet all the other COP requirements to be the top skater. That's part of the reason why I was so astonished by Patrick Chan at Canadian nationals. But we'll just have to see if he can pull if off again.

  2. #17
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    When has van de Perren done a quad-quad combo? He's done a 4-3-3, but as far as I know, not a 4-4.
    Last edited by ImaginaryPogue; 03-11-2011 at 11:43 PM.

  3. #18
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    I made the lists of Men at 2011 Worlds with quads in their programs, roughly in order of the reliability/quality of their quads. And by "quads" I mean successful quads.

    Podium contenders with or without quads:

    Chan*
    Oda *
    Kozuka
    Takahashi

    Podium contender with quads required:

    Joubert*

    Non contenders whose ranking may be greatly enhanced with quads:

    Van der Perren*
    Fernadez
    Gachinski*
    Verner
    Schultheiss
    Bradley*
    Amodio

    Good quad jumpers not at Worlds:

    Hanyu
    Menshov*
    Reynolds*
    Mura*
    Mroz*

    *With quad combo.

    Podium contenders are those with loaded programs they are able to execute with great skills and artistry. They receive both high TES and PCS. Among them Takahashi does not really have a quad, even though he landed one well this season. But he is the PCS king. Joubert does not have great CoP programs but somehow gets high PCS and wins a medal when he lands his quads (which he has not done much this season). The non-contenders' programs simply do not have enough contents to rival the top tier Men, depending on successful quads to lift their scores. Among them Verner has consistently high PCS so he can place really high if he lands his quad.
    Last edited by SkateFiguring; 03-12-2011 at 01:05 AM.

  4. #19
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    I'd maybe put Verner and Oda in the same category as Joubert. I know no quad in the SP will hurt Verner a bit, but if he lands it in the FS (and I think he intends to do it in combo with a 3t) then he could maybe sneak onto the podium depending on what the Japanese guys and Joubert do. His PCS have been higher than Joubert's this season too. Oda doesn't need a quad in the SP to medal, but I think he definitely isn't much a contender for a medal if he doesn't land one in the FS, the rest of his skating and his PCS just aren't that special to make up for no quad.

  5. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by silverlake22 View Post
    I'd maybe put Verner and Oda in the same category as Joubert. I know no quad in the SP will hurt Verner a bit, but if he lands it in the FS (and I think he intends to do it in combo with a 3t) then he could maybe sneak onto the podium depending on what the Japanese guys and Joubert do. His PCS have been higher than Joubert's this season too. Oda doesn't need a quad in the SP to medal, but I think he definitely isn't much a contender for a medal if he doesn't land one in the FS, the rest of his skating and his PCS just aren't that special to make up for no quad.
    Oda has been a Gold medal contender all season long. And any pregnancy news close to Worlds wouldn't stress him out this time.

    Vener has done well but his COR win was more given circumstantially than earned. He subsequeant performances at the GPF and the Euro were not great. He hasn't done a quad combo yet so that could be iffy and hurting more than helping. But yes I understand he has better chances of landing on the podium with a best skate and some meltdowns at the top than the rest of the field.

    In contrast, Joubert has pulled himself up late in the season, as has our current World Champion whose TES have been abysmal at times. Kozuka, OTOH has been up and down, but within the big league score range.

  6. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by SkateFiguring View Post
    Oda has been a Gold medal contender all season long. And any pregnancy news close to Worlds wouldn't stress him out this time.

    Vener has done well but his COR win was more given circumstantially than earned. He subsequeant performances at the GPF and the Euro were not great. He hasn't done a quad combo yet so that could be iffy and hurting more than helping. But yes I understand he has better chances of landing on the podium with a best skate and some meltdowns at the top than the rest of the field.

    In contrast, Joubert has pulled himself up late in the season, as has our current World Champion whose TES have been abysmal at times. Kozuka, OTOH has been up and down, but within the big league score range.
    Oda's scores this season have not been all that great. I really think he needs the quad to land on the podium. Kozuka this season has passed him, moved ahead, so now Oda is Japan's #3 and I think that will hurt him a bit. Joubert got lucky at Euros that his SP score was as high as it was, and he only beat Verner by half a point there as it was, and that was a "pull up" performance for him and not a great showing for Tomas so I really think their chances are pretty much the same. Further, Tomas has been skating better this season as a whole, so he might be heavy edge to Joubert at this point, unless Joubert is totally clean with the quad combo in the SP. Joubert's silver at Euros was a triumph for him this season, while Verner's bronze (and total score half a point lower than Joubert) was a bit of a disappointment , so I'm not sure Joubert will even beat Amodio at Worlds.
    Last edited by silverlake22; 03-12-2011 at 04:36 PM.

  7. #22
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    silverlake, my assessment of Joubert's chances is completely based on how judges have rewrded him historically. He's in a class by himself!

    In fact I initially placed him near the bottom of the non-contenders list based on his poor showings and poor quads this season. Then I created a class for him just like the judges. This is about chances, not merits.

    eta: As for Oda, he beat both Kozuka and Takahashi at the GPF, and, at the Nationals, the other head to head match up, he lost to Kozuka but beat Takahashi. Both times he led after the SP. Takahashi regained his mojo at the 4CC, winning over Kozuka but Oda wasn't there. Kozuka had the stella start but is losing some steam whereas Takahashi won both GP events with high PCS but poor TES, especially lucky with Oda handing him the Gold with poor CoP math at Skate America. Oda is the steady one of the three, never doing worse than Silver, which is fabulous except when he should have won Gold. With such record, it's hard to call Oda the 3rd Japanese Man, especially since he's never even come down to third this season.
    Last edited by SkateFiguring; 03-12-2011 at 06:13 PM.

  8. #23
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    Joubert never gave up even when he was faced with Plushenko. Nobody could have beaten Plushenko in his era. Joubert is a true sportsman, and a big wait an see what he can do. In fact, so many skaters are a wait-and-see. Btw, isn't age hitting on Takahashi?

  9. #24
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    Age will hit on Takahashi two years after it hits on that other true sportman Joubert.

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