Amodio to add quad to LP at Worlds | Golden Skate

Amodio to add quad to LP at Worlds

Violet Bliss

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Nov 19, 2010
Florent AMODIO :Intégrer le quadruple aux Mondiaux de Tokyo

Maybe the Euro win boosts his confidence and he feels good about Japan where he started the season very well. He won Euro basically with his SP, coming 3rd in LP but others underperformed at either program. He sort of bombed at GPF while competing with the big leaguers so I don't know if he would hold up at Worlds facing those top guys again.
 

gmyers

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Mar 6, 2010
He was lucky at Euros with Verner and Joubert both bombing the short and then the bombing or messy performances of Gachinski and Brezina. But at worlds you have Chan and the Japanese and the opportunity for succeeding without trying a quad should go down. He can't rely on the bombing of others to win events. He should try to reach for victories by maximizing his talents. So because he has tried quad salchows I guess he would try one of those but I don't know - he went a whole season so far not trying a salchow or a toe so I don't know what he is going to do and that article doesn't specify!!
 

Blades of Passion

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It would be better for him to try a Quad in the Short Program, IMO. Since he doesn't have a correct edge Flip, and since even a messy and underrotated Quad is worth a good amount right now, there's almost no risk in trying it for the SP. In the LP he should really just focus on skating clean. His program will lose effectiveness if it gets messy as a result of him being more tired and/or changing the layout he's been doing all year.
 

silverlake22

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Nov 12, 2009
Well, he might as well go for it. He's a big longshot for the podium at any rate, and if he wants to show that beating Joubert and Verner at Euros wasn't a fluke (which I sort of think it was, because they both had major issues in the SP and then both beat him in the FS even though neither was clean in that segment either), the quad is probably a good idea as both of them will be attempting quads. Also if Gatchinski and Brezina skate better than they did at Euros, they could easily end up ahead of Amodio and my guess is Florent doesn't want to end up in the middle of the pack of European guys at Worlds. So good luck to him.
 

Violet Bliss

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Nov 19, 2010
Florent is in Japan early. Wonder if he could practice that quad and how the quake affects him in general.
 

wallylutz

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Mar 23, 2010
4S<< with -3 GOE worths no more than a Double Lutz, can any reasonable person suggest this is "almost no risk in trying it for the SP"? :unsure:
 

wallylutz

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Mar 23, 2010
Actually, I was being generous in my earlier statement. 4S<< with a completely botched landing will most likely get -3 GOE across the board. Judges are not forgiving at all towards skaters who try to put in Quad jumps that they are clearly not ready to do, see Takahashi's failed 4F attempt at last year's World, the judges hammered him hard on the GOE, I think almost all -3 GOE despite the fact he didn't fall. Now, if Florent's butt touches the ground in addition to being <<, that's another -1 mandatory deduction - the risk of falling on a failed Quad attempt is very high - the whole element will not worth more than a Single Axel, which is 1.1

Considering what other men would be doing and you bet a number of them will skate good SP, this one error is enough to knock him out of the running completely.
 

wallylutz

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Mar 23, 2010
Florent AMODIO :Intégrer le quadruple aux Mondiaux de Tokyo

Maybe the Euro win boosts his confidence and he feels good about Japan where he started the season very well. He won Euro basically with his SP, coming 3rd in LP but others underperformed at either program. He sort of bombed at GPF while competing with the big leaguers so I don't know if he would hold up at Worlds facing those top guys again.

Considering the source of this announcement, which is FFSG, the cynical side of me thinks this is nothing more than a propaganda, nothing more. I do not believe Florent is ready to add a Quad in his program. FFSG is known to make this kind of grandiose announcement in hope to talk up their favorites, notice they too are the one who started the Joe Inman controversy just before Vancouver Olympics or proudly tell the whole world that Delobel/Scheonfelder would be skipping the 2010 Euros for "purely strategic reasons" but we know what happened now. Do you see Skate Canada proclaiming that Patrick Chan would be doing Quads in his programs through press release? No, this is not something they would do. We only find out what Chan will do through independent media or journalists, not in the form of federation press release. To me, this is a futile attempt to talk up Florent Amodio ahead of the Worlds - another case of a skater who needs a lot of off-ice help in order to compensate for the lack of substance in his actual skating whereas skaters with real substance need no such PR, see Chan, Takahashi, Oda and Kozuka.
 

NMURA

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Jul 14, 2010
Actually, I was being generous in my earlier statement. 4S<< with a completely botched landing will most likely get -3 GOE across the board. Judges are not forgiving at all towards skaters who try to put in Quad jumps that they are clearly not ready to do, see Takahashi's failed 4F attempt at last year's World, the judges hammered him hard on the GOE, I think almost all -3 GOE despite the fact he didn't fall.

It was "only" -1.6 GOE, not -3 across the board. Actually they made up for the "lost" points by two level 4 footworks and the huge PCS boost. If he has the confidence to stay the feet on the ice, it's more valuable than a beautiful 2A.
 

ImaginaryPogue

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Jun 3, 2009
I still think your point stands.

1. Risk of downgrade AND negative GOE
2. The new rules regarding edge calls means that his lip isn’t heavily penalized.
3. A solo quad out of steps is also difficult, and keep in mind he only upgraded his 3-3 combo this season.
 

Blades of Passion

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4S<< with -3 GOE worths no more than a Double Lutz, can any reasonable person suggest this is "almost no risk in trying it for the SP"? :unsure:

4S<< with -3 GOE is worth considerably more than a Double Lutz in the SP, because a 2Lutz would automatically get -3 GOE as well.

And why are you assuming Florent's Quad Salchow would be << ???? At most his 4Sal will be < . It's not like he hasn't been training the jump for years; his Salchow is strong. I don't think getting the rotation is a big problem for him on the jump, it's landing consistently. If he actually just plans to rotate the jump and not worry much about the landing, then he will receive a total of 6.5 points after the fall deduction for his Quad Salchow attempt...which is a couple points more than he gets for his wrong-edge Flip. If he manages to not fall, then 7.5 points (or more).

A solo quad out of steps is also difficult.

You barely have to put any steps at all before the solo jump in the SP to fulfill that requirement. Judges do not crack down on much on delays between the steps and the jump either. The penalty for no steps is -GOE anyway. If Florent tries to just rotate the Quad Salchow and not worry so much about the landing and doesn't put any preceding steps at all, knowing that a rotated Quad with -3 GOE is worth a lot of points, then the "deduction" he would get for not having preceding movement would be minimal.

And thus we see yet another flaw in the current CoP rules.
 
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gmyers

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Mar 6, 2010
Considering the source of this announcement, which is FFSG, the cynical side of me thinks this is nothing more than a propaganda, nothing more. I do not believe Florent is ready to add a Quad in his program. FFSG is known to make this kind of grandiose announcement in hope to talk up their favorites, notice they too are the one who started the Joe Inman controversy just before Vancouver Olympics or proudly tell the whole world that Delobel/Scheonfelder would be skipping the 2010 Euros for "purely strategic reasons" but we know what happened now. Do you see Skate Canada proclaiming that Patrick Chan would be doing Quads in his programs through press release? No, this is not something they would do. We only find out what Chan will do through independent media or journalists, not in the form of federation press release. To me, this is a futile attempt to talk up Florent Amodio ahead of the Worlds - another case of a skater who needs a lot of off-ice help in order to compensate for the lack of substance in his actual skating whereas skaters with real substance need no such PR, see Chan, Takahashi, Oda and Kozuka.
\

I think I see what you're saying about the French Fed talking up Amodio's adding a quad to make him look better to the judges. But he really might have to do one to be competitive.
 

wallylutz

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Mar 23, 2010
4S<< with -3 GOE is worth considerably more than a Double Lutz in the SP, because a 2Lutz would automatically get -3 GOE as well.

:rolleye: Likewise, men can't do Single Axel in their SP either, it's value equivalency. Even if he didn't do a 4S, surely he would have done something a lot more valuable than a 2Lz like a 3Lo or even a 3S. Please don't play dumb, you are way beyond this.

And why are you assuming Florent's Quad Salchow would be << ???? At most his 4Sal will be < . It's not like he hasn't been training the jump for years; his Salchow is strong. I don't think getting the rotation is a big problem for him on the jump, it's landing consistently. If he actually just plans to rotate the jump and not worry much about the landing, then he will receive a total of 6.5 points after the fall deduction for his Quad Salchow attempt...which is a couple points more than he gets for his wrong-edge Flip. If he manages to not fall, then 7.5 points (or more).

:disapp:

Here is what you said and I quote:

It would be better for him to try a Quad in the Short Program, IMO. Since he doesn't have a correct edge Flip, and since even a messy and underrotated Quad is worth a good amount right now, there's almost no risk in trying it for the SP. In the LP he should really just focus on skating clean. His program will lose effectiveness if it gets messy as a result of him being more tired and/or changing the layout he's been doing all year.

Bolding is mine. Why do I assume he could get a <<? Uh? Because it's a risk that needs to be accounted for and not ignored like you did perhaps? :sheesh: For a skater who has never attempted 4S in competition, I don't know where you find the confidence to suggest he would get a < at most. When skaters popped jumps or UR a jump, it almost always is an unconscious decision where you body knows the jump wasn't going to happen. Frankly, your confidence here has absolutely no reasonable basis. Even the likes of Kevin Reynolds who has been doing Quads in competition for several years now still occasionally get << in his Quads when he is off and this is a guy who is known the King of Quads. Granted, there is a chance that Florent could rotate his Quad well enough to get maybe just a < or not all but when you actually do a scenario analysis and factored in the probabilities of all possible scenarios such as 20% chance he will popped the Quad into Triple or Less, 25% chance he will get <<, 35% chance will get < and 20% he will get full credit - now that's an actually a real risk assessment that his coaching team should be doing for him as opposed to your completed unfounded statement and I must quote again: "there's almost no risk in trying it for the SP". For example, if I were asked to advise Florent on the decision whether putting a 4S in his program is a good idea and I would work with his coaches and spend a few days observing his practices, taking notes, collecting data and then converse with the skater and his coaching team. And I will then give them my assessment at the end of the process with the quantitative justification part will looking like this:

Scenario 1: Probability of popped into Double/Single: 10% X 1.4 = 0.14
Scenario 2: Probability of popped into Triple: 10% X 4.2 = 0.42
Scenario 3: Probability of 4S with <<: 25% X 4.2 = 1.05
Scenario 4: Probability of 4S with <: 35% X 7.4 = 2.59
Scenario 5: Probability of 4S: 20% X 10.5 = 2.1

Base Value of the expected attempt = 6.3

Scenario 1: GOE = 10% X 0 = 0
Scenario 2: GOE = 10% X 0.35* = 0.035 (*: 0.35 assume ranges between 0 and +1 GOE)
Scenario 3: GOE = 25% X -1.75** = -0.438 (**: -1.75 assumes ranges between -2 and -3 GOE)
Scenario 4: GOE = 35% X -1.50*** = -0.525 (***: -1.5 assumes ranges between -1 and -2 GOE)
Scenario 5: GOE = 20% X 0.5**** = 0.1 (****: 0.5 assumes ranges between 0 and +1 GOE)

GOE of the expected attempt: -0.828

Probability of Falling: 25% = 0.25 X -1 = -0.25

Total Value of the Expected 4S attempt: 6.3 - 0.828 - 0.25 = 5.22
Worst Case Scenario Value (excluding popped jumps) = 1.1
Best Case Scenario Value = 11.4

Whether to include the jump in this case becomes a heart to heart chat with the coaches and the skater himself, in addition to being a strategic discussion. In any event, I would never use the term "almost no risk" because clearly the numbers indicate a great deal of potential variance = risk, a lot of it

You barely have to put any steps at all before the solo jump in the SP to fulfill that requirement. Judges do not crack down on much on delays between the steps and the jump either. The penalty for no steps is -GOE anyway. If Florent tries to just rotate the Quad Salchow and not worry so much about the landing and doesn't put any preceding steps at all, knowing that a rotated Quad with -3 GOE is worth a lot of points, then the "deduction" he would get for not having preceding movement would be minimal.

And thus we see yet another flaw in the current CoP rules.

:unsure: Clearly, you have not skated competitively before. Very often, your body just won't let the rotation happen, it's something that happens subconciously regardless of whether there were any preceding steps or not. All elite skaters know by now popped jumps are far more costly than full rotation yet falling but they still popped jumps anyway. Plus, you made it sound incredibly easy to fully rotate a Quad, which is not the case. Sometimes, you think you have fully rotated the jump but the Technical Panel says no, do you want to laugh or cry? It would have been too easy to game the system and we would have seen people doing Quad attempts all over the place including the ladies if what you said is true but it is not anywhere close to the truth. The fact is only skaters who are reasonably sure they can do the Quads will try them in competition and so far, even the like of Miki Ando, has stayed clear of futile Quad attempts. And if there is way Morozov could game the system, you bet he would be the first one to tell Miki to do it, for him who was idiotic enough to announce to the whole world via media no less last season that he was going to have Miki do the 3Lz+3Lo combo because judges couldn't seen the < sign then and the penalty for < would be small even if caught. :eek: You know what happened. Miki got caught and hammered so badly that she was out of running for the both Olympics and Worlds way before the FS. Mind you, all she had to do was to rotate that damn Triple Loop in combo, for a lady who has done 4S before. Yet here, you are trying to lead us to believe all Florent had to do is just rotate the Quad Salchow as if it's a piece of cake??? I think I have said enough.
 

Violet Bliss

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Joined
Nov 19, 2010
I gave some credibility to Florent's quad because Joubert attested to seeing him do it. However, doing one in competition is a whole other story. Has anybody ever debuted a quad or a 3A at the World championships?! Look what Chan had to go through to get his quads into his competitive programs. And that was the most accelerated progress there ever was by one of the most talented skaters ever. How many quad jumpers have been doing them for years and still don't have them reliably? At least some of them have learned to let neither a failed nor a successful quad affect the rest of their program, which also takes time and practice in competitions.

Quads are never without risk, especially in the SP where the ramifications could be severe.
 
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