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Thread: Amodio to add quad to LP at Worlds

  1. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blades of Passion View Post
    4S<< with -3 GOE is worth considerably more than a Double Lutz in the SP, because a 2Lutz would automatically get -3 GOE as well.
    Likewise, men can't do Single Axel in their SP either, it's value equivalency. Even if he didn't do a 4S, surely he would have done something a lot more valuable than a 2Lz like a 3Lo or even a 3S. Please don't play dumb, you are way beyond this.

    And why are you assuming Florent's Quad Salchow would be << ???? At most his 4Sal will be < . It's not like he hasn't been training the jump for years; his Salchow is strong. I don't think getting the rotation is a big problem for him on the jump, it's landing consistently. If he actually just plans to rotate the jump and not worry much about the landing, then he will receive a total of 6.5 points after the fall deduction for his Quad Salchow attempt...which is a couple points more than he gets for his wrong-edge Flip. If he manages to not fall, then 7.5 points (or more).


    Here is what you said and I quote:

    It would be better for him to try a Quad in the Short Program, IMO. Since he doesn't have a correct edge Flip, and since even a messy and underrotated Quad is worth a good amount right now, there's almost no risk in trying it for the SP. In the LP he should really just focus on skating clean. His program will lose effectiveness if it gets messy as a result of him being more tired and/or changing the layout he's been doing all year.
    Bolding is mine. Why do I assume he could get a <<? Uh? Because it's a risk that needs to be accounted for and not ignored like you did perhaps? :sheesh: For a skater who has never attempted 4S in competition, I don't know where you find the confidence to suggest he would get a < at most. When skaters popped jumps or UR a jump, it almost always is an unconscious decision where you body knows the jump wasn't going to happen. Frankly, your confidence here has absolutely no reasonable basis. Even the likes of Kevin Reynolds who has been doing Quads in competition for several years now still occasionally get << in his Quads when he is off and this is a guy who is known the King of Quads. Granted, there is a chance that Florent could rotate his Quad well enough to get maybe just a < or not all but when you actually do a scenario analysis and factored in the probabilities of all possible scenarios such as 20% chance he will popped the Quad into Triple or Less, 25% chance he will get <<, 35% chance will get < and 20% he will get full credit - now that's an actually a real risk assessment that his coaching team should be doing for him as opposed to your completed unfounded statement and I must quote again: "there's almost no risk in trying it for the SP". For example, if I were asked to advise Florent on the decision whether putting a 4S in his program is a good idea and I would work with his coaches and spend a few days observing his practices, taking notes, collecting data and then converse with the skater and his coaching team. And I will then give them my assessment at the end of the process with the quantitative justification part will looking like this:

    Scenario 1: Probability of popped into Double/Single: 10% X 1.4 = 0.14
    Scenario 2: Probability of popped into Triple: 10% X 4.2 = 0.42
    Scenario 3: Probability of 4S with <<: 25% X 4.2 = 1.05
    Scenario 4: Probability of 4S with <: 35% X 7.4 = 2.59
    Scenario 5: Probability of 4S: 20% X 10.5 = 2.1

    Base Value of the expected attempt = 6.3

    Scenario 1: GOE = 10% X 0 = 0
    Scenario 2: GOE = 10% X 0.35* = 0.035 (*: 0.35 assume ranges between 0 and +1 GOE)
    Scenario 3: GOE = 25% X -1.75** = -0.438 (**: -1.75 assumes ranges between -2 and -3 GOE)
    Scenario 4: GOE = 35% X -1.50*** = -0.525 (***: -1.5 assumes ranges between -1 and -2 GOE)
    Scenario 5: GOE = 20% X 0.5**** = 0.1 (****: 0.5 assumes ranges between 0 and +1 GOE)

    GOE of the expected attempt: -0.828

    Probability of Falling: 25% = 0.25 X -1 = -0.25

    Total Value of the Expected 4S attempt: 6.3 - 0.828 - 0.25 = 5.22
    Worst Case Scenario Value (excluding popped jumps) = 1.1
    Best Case Scenario Value = 11.4

    Whether to include the jump in this case becomes a heart to heart chat with the coaches and the skater himself, in addition to being a strategic discussion. In any event, I would never use the term "almost no risk" because clearly the numbers indicate a great deal of potential variance = risk, a lot of it

    You barely have to put any steps at all before the solo jump in the SP to fulfill that requirement. Judges do not crack down on much on delays between the steps and the jump either. The penalty for no steps is -GOE anyway. If Florent tries to just rotate the Quad Salchow and not worry so much about the landing and doesn't put any preceding steps at all, knowing that a rotated Quad with -3 GOE is worth a lot of points, then the "deduction" he would get for not having preceding movement would be minimal.

    And thus we see yet another flaw in the current CoP rules.
    Clearly, you have not skated competitively before. Very often, your body just won't let the rotation happen, it's something that happens subconciously regardless of whether there were any preceding steps or not. All elite skaters know by now popped jumps are far more costly than full rotation yet falling but they still popped jumps anyway. Plus, you made it sound incredibly easy to fully rotate a Quad, which is not the case. Sometimes, you think you have fully rotated the jump but the Technical Panel says no, do you want to laugh or cry? It would have been too easy to game the system and we would have seen people doing Quad attempts all over the place including the ladies if what you said is true but it is not anywhere close to the truth. The fact is only skaters who are reasonably sure they can do the Quads will try them in competition and so far, even the like of Miki Ando, has stayed clear of futile Quad attempts. And if there is way Morozov could game the system, you bet he would be the first one to tell Miki to do it, for him who was idiotic enough to announce to the whole world via media no less last season that he was going to have Miki do the 3Lz+3Lo combo because judges couldn't seen the < sign then and the penalty for < would be small even if caught. You know what happened. Miki got caught and hammered so badly that she was out of running for the both Olympics and Worlds way before the FS. Mind you, all she had to do was to rotate that damn Triple Loop in combo, for a lady who has done 4S before. Yet here, you are trying to lead us to believe all Florent had to do is just rotate the Quad Salchow as if it's a piece of cake??? I think I have said enough.

  2. #17
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    I gave some credibility to Florent's quad because Joubert attested to seeing him do it. However, doing one in competition is a whole other story. Has anybody ever debuted a quad or a 3A at the World championships?! Look what Chan had to go through to get his quads into his competitive programs. And that was the most accelerated progress there ever was by one of the most talented skaters ever. How many quad jumpers have been doing them for years and still don't have them reliably? At least some of them have learned to let neither a failed nor a successful quad affect the rest of their program, which also takes time and practice in competitions.

    Quads are never without risk, especially in the SP where the ramifications could be severe.

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