Shawn Sawyer - Out or In?

[SkateFiguring]

We don't know what Ryan's highest personal goal is but we are discussing his competitive skating career here.

Nobody knows how he will skate at Worlds, but his medaling chances can be reasonably assessed. Looking at all competitors at this Worlds, he chances are so low that not enough statistical margin is there to place him at the podium, 19 times out of 20. I think.

Of course he should pursue his dreams and I wish him the best.

BTW, I don't use a crystal ball because there are many much better ways to predict the future.

[janetfan]

I think Ryan skating at Worlds is one of the nice stories in skating this season.
Believe it or not there are fans who care about more than just medals and enjoy skating for other reasons too.

Ryan is particularly well liked by many US Skating fans and his US Title in his 11th trip to Natls was awesome.

At the moment US Skating is better off with a skater of Ryan's charisma sticking around.
Your opinion may be valid, but doesn't mean a thing to me or most other Bradley fans.

Like I said this is not Russia or Canada and Ryan earned his trip to Worlds.
I hope he has a skate there that he will be satisfied with.

Some thought Paul Wylie had no chance and as I recall he finished ahead of Kurt at the Olympics.

Ryan is one of the last skaters from the 6.0 era. That alone makes me root for him.

[wallylutz]

Some thought Paul Wylie had no chance and as I recall hefinished ahead of Kurt at the Olympics.

It's not even remotely comparable. Wylie, in his time, had the potential to pull off such upset when a few favorites bomb. Even assuming they are, in 2011, he will have to beat about 5 Kurt Browning equivalent in order to climb onto the podium.

Ryan is very likeable and better looking than many other male skaters. He is still very much a show skater however and competitive skating may just not be his strength, which is fine. Some competitive skaters make for pretty boring showman.

So yes, I rarely make specific prediction but I will make this one and you can quote me on this: Ryan Bradley will have no chance at any medal at the 2011 Worlds, even if he lands all his jumps and skate 2 clean programs. It's not his jumps that are holding him back, it's everything else. He is the type that judges can conceivably place behind Chan with 3 falls. And if you take an average of his PCS in his last 3-4 international competitions, you know he isn't going to make it no matter how he jumps and he surely hasn't improved at all compared to last year so there is no hope his PCS will magically increase either.

[wallylutz]

Ryan is one of the last skaters from the 6.0 era. That alone makes me root for him.

I had a really weird dream about Ryan Bradley a few nights ago and I rarely dream about skating. He skated a flawless FS and received mostly 5.8 and 5.9 for Technical Merit but only 3s and 4s for the 2nd mark so he got left behind, like 15th place. Don't know why and don't know why I dreamed about the 6.0 system of all sudden and about Ryan - it was completely out of the blue.

[janetfan]

It's not even remotely comparable. Wylie, in his time, had the potential to pull off such upset when a few favorites bomb. Even assuming they are, in 2011, he will have to beat about 5 Kurt Browning equivalent in order to climb onto the podium.

Ryan is very likeable and better looking than many other male skaters. He is still very much a show skater however and competitive skating may just not be his strength, which is fine. Some competitive skaters make for pretty boring showman.

So yes, I rarely make specific prediction but I will make this one and you can quote me on this: Ryan Bradley will have no chance at any medal at the 2011 Worlds, even if he lands all his jumps and skate 2 clean programs. It's not his jumps that are holding him back, it's everything else. He is the type that judges can conceivably place behind Chan with 3 falls. And if you take an average of his PCS in his last 3-4 international competitions, you know he isn't going to make it no matter how he jumps and he surely hasn't improved at all compared to last year so there is no hope his PCS will magically increase either.

So what's your point ?
Should I petiton US Skating to dump Ryan and replace him with Jeremy or Adam?
Sorry, but the results of Natls are good enough for me and regardless of where Ryan finishes I just hope he is satisfied with his performance.

You and SF can keep on stating what seems obvious but I typically care for more interesting/original observations.

Noboby thought Ryan would finish ahead of Jeremy either at Natls. If I recall Jeremy has finished ahead of the skaters you mentioned and yet Ryan finished ahead of jeremy.

Are we talking about sport here, as in "on any given Sunday" or are we talking about a pageant with pre-determined placements, like we saw from Ice Dancing for so many years?

Wylie had potential ,but it is simply not true that anyome thought he would make the podium let alone win silver. There were too many other skaters who were considered better than Paul.

No predictions from me, just looking forward to seeing them skate.

[ImaginaryPogue]

I think Sawyer probably made the right decision - especially given the upheavel of this season.

As for Bradley, I think he's probably the exact skater the US Federation is looking for. I doubt they could be happier with his National Championship Title.

[SkateFiguring]

I'm not engaging you in personality and likability of the competing skaters, Hernando, as they are subjective and not determining factors in competitions. Yes Bradley is nice and charming and American, but others' favorites are equally adorable to their fans.

Ironically we are both wrong on some fronts. Bradley's chances are not that bad because of the CoP scoring, specifically the high value accorded to quad jumps, which Bradley himself said was a major reason he decided to compete at the 2011 Nationals.

Refering to the Comparing Men's National Scores and Highest Total Scores Of The Season threads, basing on his Nationals scores Bradleys chances by either criteria would be 5th place. I constructed an Extremely Good Case Secenario for Ryan: Keeping his inflated Nationals scores to account for for improvement since then (the delay for Worlds is to his advantage), and take off the -4.86 for his faulty quads in the LP, his scores can be bumped up to 236.76. That would place him second compared to others' average international scores.

Something for Bradley's fans to go by, eh?

By the same measures, Sawyer would place 6th, or on the podium in a best case scenario, aka pipe dream.

[wallylutz]

I'm not engaging you in personality and likability of the competing skaters, Hernando, as they are subjective and not determining factors in competitions. Yes Bradley is nice and charming and American, but others' favorites are equally adorable to their fans.

Ironically we are both wrong on some fronts. Bradley's chances are not that bad because of the CoP scoring, specifically the high value accorded to quad jumps, which Bradley himself said was a major reason he decided to compete at the 2011 Nationals.

Refering to the Comparing Men's National Scores and Highest Total Scores Of The Season threads, basing on his Nationals scores Bradleys chances by either criteria would be 5th place. I constructed an Extremely Good Case Secenario for Ryan: Keeping his inflated Nationals scores to account for for improvement since then (the delay for Worlds is to his advantage), and take off the -4.86 for his faulty quads in the LP, his scores can be bumped up to 236.76. That would place him second compared to others' average international scores.

Something for Bradley's fans to go by, eh?

By the same measures, Sawyer would place 6th, or on the podium in a best case scenario, aka pipe dream.

Well, if we are going to use the Nationals Scores, then Chan would be unbeatable as he was very close the 300 points turf.

I rather use something a little more concrete. Here is Bradley's most recent international competition: http://www.isuresults.com/results/wc2010/SEG002.HTM

PCS = 58.90

He would be skating the same FS as he would at the 2011 Worlds. So setting aside all the prejudices, what exactly has he improved in SS, TR, PE, CH and IN to justify a significant improvement from 58.90? If anyone can make a case to justify an upward adjustment, then I will believe he will a chance. If nobody can't, then notwithstanding any jumps he may perform, it would be more likely that Alissa will beat Yu Na than Bradley medaling at the 2011 Worlds.

[SkateFiguring]

Geez, Wally, I was trying to be nice.

[blue_idealist]

Ryan Bradley's 2010 worlds results are not good to go by. He was skating with a BROKEN TOE.

[wallylutz]

Ryan Bradley's 2010 worlds results are not good to go by. He was skating with a BROKEN TOE.

Right...the broken toe caused the PCS to be 58.90... So are the competition before that as well I guess, and the one before.

[ImaginaryPogue]

Bradley's PCS last season

TEB SP: 28.45
TEB LP: 56.70

SA SP: 29.30
SA LP: 68.50

Nationals SP: 33.58
Nationals LP: 74.14

4CC SP: 31.70
4CC LP: 70.80

We'll exclude Worlds on account of the toe. It's rather startling to see the breadth of his marks, particularly LP. A 14 point spread in one season is virtually unheard of. I do think he'll get hammered at Worlds, but frankly, I think I underestimated his scoring potential. We'll see.

[SkateFiguring]

Bradley's PCS at 2011 Nationals:

SP 36.50
LP 73.34

PCS range: SP 28.45 - 36.50; LP 56.70 - 73.34. So much for PCS generally being less variable than TES for a skater.

His Nationals PCS both years are notably higher than at international competitions. Is he much better when competiting at home? Er.....Just noticed it ain't so at SA with international judging at home.

Taking out Nationals scores, his PCS ranges are SP 28.50 - 31.70 and LP 56.70 - 70.80, with TEB result being particularly low.

Probably the pattern exists for his TES. I'm too lazy to look them up right now.

[ImaginaryPogue]

His personal best is Skate Canada three years ago.

The thing is PCS generally don't fluctuate so dramatically. Now, to be fair, it's simply harder for PCS to fluctuate at the higher end of the scale - If the judges generally give you 8's, mid-9's for anything less than perfection is damn near impossible. And of course Nationals tends to inflate things. But that spread is truly remarkable.

[Bluebonnet]

Yes, good news is always worth discussing and sharing

There is always a good side and a bad side, not neccesarily a good news. Many other federations' ways might be better worked from time to time.

Peaked , as in meaning meaning he attained his highest goal?

Not so. Peaked means that a skater has given all he/she could in a certain period of time, and/or has reached a level that he/she was working hard trying to reach. He might never reach his highest goal. He might not skate clean. But he might have peaked.

Bradley's PCS last season

TEB SP: 28.45
TEB LP: 56.70

SA SP: 29.30
SA LP: 68.50

Nationals SP: 33.58
Nationals LP: 74.14

4CC SP: 31.70
4CC LP: 70.80

We'll exclude Worlds on account of the toe. It's rather startling to see the breadth of his marks, particularly LP. A 14 point spread in one season is virtually unheard of. I do think he'll get hammered at Worlds, but frankly, I think I underestimated his scoring potential. We'll see.

4CC tends to inflate the scores more than other international competitions.

Here is Bradley's 2009 TEB SP, score 36.76 + 28.45 = 65.21:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O63u1Pi9XYc

Bradley's 2010 4CC SP, score 35.52 + 31.70 - 1 = 66.22(SB):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D5MPFDKBVc4

Didn't find his LP in these international competitions on Youtube.