Will The Shibutani's Get A Top 6 Finish in World Debut?
If we combine the total scores from Europeans and Four Continents:
172.03 Davis / White
167.40 Pechalat / Bourzat
161.14 Bobroba / Soloviev
157.49 Kerr / Kerr
155.38 Shibutani / Shibutani
153.48 Ilinykh / Katsalapov
151.83 Crone / Poirier
151.14 Weaver / Poje
145.92 Faiella / Scali
145.05 Riazanova / Tkachenko
WD Virtue / Moir
This puts the Shibutani's in line to be on the first page at Worlds. We'll see whether the judges will give the Russian ice dancers more points, and the Shibutani's SD is their weaker event, which may not set them up well for their crisp FD. Virtue / Moir are poised to return at Worlds, but the Kerrs have withdrawn.
What do you think of their chances?
Interesting. The whole top 10 is interesting now. Kerr's are not going to be there due to injury. Faiella/Scali are retired. It's looking better and better that there will be 3 Canadian teams in the top 10, and 3 spots secured for Canada in next year's worlds. While I think Virtue/Moir and Davis/White are going to be 1 and 2 in some order, and Pechalat/Bourzat are very likely to finish in 3rd, the rest of them could really finish in any order, depending on who skates the best on the days.
I absolutely believe that the Shibs have an excellent chance at the top six finish.
I predict that 1 & will be V/M & D/W in either order;
the third place will be P/B;
the 4th to be B/S.
Less certain are the 5th and the 6th place winners. Likely candidates are the Shibs, I/K, C/P, and W/P (since the Kerrs and F/S are out of the Worlds). Among four teams, the Shibs are the highest scored couple in light of European/4CC competitions.
In my opinion, the Shibs are also the most improved couple over the season among their competitors. So if they stay on the current trajectory, they could finish as high as the 5th place.
I also would like to see them within the 6th place so that they can be seeded for the 2011 GP events. One thing that worked for their placement disadvantage for the current season was that the Shibs entered into the same GP events as D/W (both NHK Trophy & SA).
Being the senior debutantes, it might have been helpful for the Shibs to travel with more experienced senior team mates, but it also meant that they were almost guaranteed to place no higher than the second place. Unintended beneficiaries were C/Z, that did not have to compete with neither D/W, the Shibs, nor S/B (due to injury).
Winning the silver medal at nationals means that it's highly unlikely for the Shibs to enter into the same GP events with D/W. However, I would like to see that the Shibs have better probability for placing as high as possible at any GP events for the next season.
Last edited by CARA; 03-31-2011 at 10:54 PM.
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I think it's going to be..
1) VM or DW
2) VM or DW
Then either CP or the Shibs. So, yes, I think they will make the top 10. I don't think that they will have a problem beating IK honestly. WP are a question mark, it depends on if they make mistakes in the FD.
I honestly think the Shibs could maybe come in 3rd at Worlds. I'm not convinced P/B will beat them. Maybe it's wishful thinking, but I think 4th-6th place is definitely reasonable and I'd be surprised if they didn't finish in the top 6. I think they shouldn't have an issue finishing ahead of I/K just where Nikita has been having twizzle issues all season and I don't think their FD suits them very well, meanwhile the Shibs have been on a roll this whole season.
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Beat P/B? Neverrrrr.. well, at least not this year.
I agree that it's unlikely for the Shibs to beat P/B. For one thing, being new to the senior circuit, the Shibs have not established international reputation that tends to reflect on PCP, unlike the long-termers like P/B.
However, being 3rd places on both GP assignments, the silver medals on both nationals and 4CC mean that the Shibs are in a hurry to gain good international standing.
Finishing the 5th or 6th place at their first Sr. Worlds should boost their next year's PCP nicely.
Constable , Costume Police
Here we go again...I hope the entries are set now.
I think top 6 is very possible for the Shibs , but I think the podium, and even 4th is beyond their reach. But 5th all the way down to 10th is a real toss-up depending on who skates well , or if anyone (avert) should suffer a meltdown. I would think the Shibs should be in a 5th-7th spot slugfest with W/P and C/P ( assuming that C/P and W/P skate as well as they did at Canadians, and that Vanessa is not still struggling with boot probems).
I don't think I/K should be in that particular mix , but they could be if they and/or their programs have improved since Euro's ( I think they were overmarked, there)..and of course, they could get a boost by virtue of the fact that it will be in Russia. At the least , I feel they'll do well enough to insure 3 spots for Russia next year.
C/Z ought to be right there with them, and I certainly think their programs are head and shoulders above I/K's ..but who knows what the judges will see.
H/Z are under a cloud right now ,because of her illness , I have no idea how M/N fit in , I just feel that they should shuffle in here, somewhere...and while I would have said C/L had lost a chance for top 10 6 wks. ago , they've now had some time to get back up to speed.
Yeah i think they will finish in the top 6. They keep improving at every event, and have impressed me alot. Because the Kerrs WD, they have an even better chance.
Shibutani's should get top 5 placement on debut WOW, but they deserve it. They have all the skills like D/W and V/M, watch out for them next year.
I heard from a source that Pechalat and Bourzat look GREAT!!, and very much be pushing the top two. Their SD was reportedly BEAUTIFUL in training.
Wicked Yankee Girl
That about P&B's SD is a nice surprise, because it's been by far the weaker part of their package this year. That's great!
I agree with most people on the top 4 for sure. Davis & White should win and at worst will probably be 2nd. Virtue & Moir could be anywhere from 1st to 3rd depending how sharp they are. Pechalat & Bourzat could be anywhere from 2nd to 4th I guess (cant see them winning though crazier things have happened). And Bobrova & Soloviev will probably be 4th but could be 3rd.
Beyond that it is hard to say but I would say the Shibutanis are possibly the favorites to finish 5th. I strongly disagree with people thinking I/K are not a threat to finish as high as 5th or 6th though. They showed great improvement in their FD from earlier in the season at Europeans. They will be on home ice and will likely get an inevitable scoring boost. I could easily see them finishing over C/P, W/P, and even the Shibutanis if they have a strong competition. In terms of natural talent they are atleast as talented as the Shibutanis and more talented than either 2nd or 3rd Canadian team, it is just a matter of where they are in their own developmental curve. Remember they destroyed the Shibutanis at the World Juniors last year, it would be hardly far fetched they could beat them again
Constable , Costume Police
oh, I think I/K could be a threat at 5-6, but especially with the material they have, which I feel is sorely lacking in some respects , I don't think they should be a threat. This is not to denigrate their obvious talent and potential, but like P/I in Canada , it's where you can imagine them being in a year or two that's really exciting.
Whatever our various opinions on which couple is more talented , one thing the Shibutanis have over I/K , at this stage , is their togetherness..they seem perfectly attuned to and in sync with each other at all times. That sort of seeming effortlessness stands out a mile.
I have mixed feelings on I/K at this point. However I sensed a big improvement in them by Europeans and I think they are starting to get it together after a rough start to their senior debut season. Also being in Russia I expect some generous scores. I think the Shibutanis have easily been the better team this season, but I think it will be easier for I/K to improve their programs and performances from this season so far than the Shibutanis who are already skating as well as they can right now.
I think Top 6 for the Shibs is a real possibility, depending on how they skate and how others do. Where do they go from here is tough to say. I'll be very frank, there are things that will count against them and I am not going to be PC about it:
1) They will never be seen as a couple because they are brother and sister team and look way too alike, even more so than the Kerrs who can still pass for strangers, but not the Shibs
2) They still look like kids
3) They are not good looking enough in the world of Ice Dance
On Point 3, maybe they will once they mature and become adults but at this point, the lack of a handsome man + attractive woman pairing can hurt your chance in the long run - yes, looks count for a great deal in Ice Dance no matter how wrong this may sound