Will The Shibutani's Get A Top 6 Finish in World Debut?
If we combine the total scores from Europeans and Four Continents:
172.03 Davis / White
167.40 Pechalat / Bourzat
161.14 Bobroba / Soloviev
157.49 Kerr / Kerr
155.38 Shibutani / Shibutani
153.48 Ilinykh / Katsalapov
151.83 Crone / Poirier
151.14 Weaver / Poje
145.92 Faiella / Scali
145.05 Riazanova / Tkachenko
WD Virtue / Moir
This puts the Shibutani's in line to be on the first page at Worlds. We'll see whether the judges will give the Russian ice dancers more points, and the Shibutani's SD is their weaker event, which may not set them up well for their crisp FD. Virtue / Moir are poised to return at Worlds, but the Kerrs have withdrawn.
What do you think of their chances?
Interesting. The whole top 10 is interesting now. Kerr's are not going to be there due to injury. Faiella/Scali are retired. It's looking better and better that there will be 3 Canadian teams in the top 10, and 3 spots secured for Canada in next year's worlds. While I think Virtue/Moir and Davis/White are going to be 1 and 2 in some order, and Pechalat/Bourzat are very likely to finish in 3rd, the rest of them could really finish in any order, depending on who skates the best on the days.
I absolutely believe that the Shibs have an excellent chance at the top six finish.
I predict that 1 & will be V/M & D/W in either order;
the third place will be P/B;
the 4th to be B/S.
Less certain are the 5th and the 6th place winners. Likely candidates are the Shibs, I/K, C/P, and W/P (since the Kerrs and F/S are out of the Worlds). Among four teams, the Shibs are the highest scored couple in light of European/4CC competitions.
In my opinion, the Shibs are also the most improved couple over the season among their competitors. So if they stay on the current trajectory, they could finish as high as the 5th place.
I also would like to see them within the 6th place so that they can be seeded for the 2011 GP events. One thing that worked for their placement disadvantage for the current season was that the Shibs entered into the same GP events as D/W (both NHK Trophy & SA).
Being the senior debutantes, it might have been helpful for the Shibs to travel with more experienced senior team mates, but it also meant that they were almost guaranteed to place no higher than the second place. Unintended beneficiaries were C/Z, that did not have to compete with neither D/W, the Shibs, nor S/B (due to injury).
Winning the silver medal at nationals means that it's highly unlikely for the Shibs to enter into the same GP events with D/W. However, I would like to see that the Shibs have better probability for placing as high as possible at any GP events for the next season.
Last edited by CARA; 03-31-2011 at 08:54 PM.
I think it's going to be..
1) VM or DW
2) VM or DW
Then either CP or the Shibs. So, yes, I think they will make the top 10. I don't think that they will have a problem beating IK honestly. WP are a question mark, it depends on if they make mistakes in the FD.
I honestly think the Shibs could maybe come in 3rd at Worlds. I'm not convinced P/B will beat them. Maybe it's wishful thinking, but I think 4th-6th place is definitely reasonable and I'd be surprised if they didn't finish in the top 6. I think they shouldn't have an issue finishing ahead of I/K just where Nikita has been having twizzle issues all season and I don't think their FD suits them very well, meanwhile the Shibs have been on a roll this whole season.
Beat P/B? Neverrrrr.. well, at least not this year.
I agree that it's unlikely for the Shibs to beat P/B. For one thing, being new to the senior circuit, the Shibs have not established international reputation that tends to reflect on PCP, unlike the long-termers like P/B.
However, being 3rd places on both GP assignments, the silver medals on both nationals and 4CC mean that the Shibs are in a hurry to gain good international standing.
Finishing the 5th or 6th place at their first Sr. Worlds should boost their next year's PCP nicely.
Constable , Costume Police
Here we go again...I hope the entries are set now.
I think top 6 is very possible for the Shibs , but I think the podium, and even 4th is beyond their reach. But 5th all the way down to 10th is a real toss-up depending on who skates well , or if anyone (avert) should suffer a meltdown. I would think the Shibs should be in a 5th-7th spot slugfest with W/P and C/P ( assuming that C/P and W/P skate as well as they did at Canadians, and that Vanessa is not still struggling with boot probems).
I don't think I/K should be in that particular mix , but they could be if they and/or their programs have improved since Euro's ( I think they were overmarked, there)..and of course, they could get a boost by virtue of the fact that it will be in Russia. At the least , I feel they'll do well enough to insure 3 spots for Russia next year.
C/Z ought to be right there with them, and I certainly think their programs are head and shoulders above I/K's ..but who knows what the judges will see.
H/Z are under a cloud right now ,because of her illness , I have no idea how M/N fit in , I just feel that they should shuffle in here, somewhere...and while I would have said C/L had lost a chance for top 10 6 wks. ago , they've now had some time to get back up to speed.
Yeah i think they will finish in the top 6. They keep improving at every event, and have impressed me alot. Because the Kerrs WD, they have an even better chance.