It is disappointing that it was you of all people to make this kind of post.Originally Posted by Mathman
Chan is going to win worlds by 20 points. He will get straight 9's across the board in PCSs, well-deserved. He will hit a bunch of quads.
It is disappointing that it was you of all people to make this kind of post.Chan is going to win worlds by 20 points. He will get straight 9's across the board in PCSs, well-deserved. He will hit a bunch of quads.
^ Are you referring to the post that you quoted? Why is it disappointing that I think Patrick Chan is going to skate lights out at worlds and sweep away the opposition? Who do you think is capable of keeping pace with him?
Back in the olden days, the question was, could Chan without a quad beat the other top guys with quads. Chan has put that question to rest. I might be wrong, but my opinion is, no serious question remains about the men's events at worlds.
(But I still hope that Bradley makes the top ten.)
Seriously? You think my post #12 here by me = Chan fan paranoia?My goodness, since when a technical dissection of a skater's program and a discussion of his chances becomes fan paranoia of another skater whom I don't even talk about that often.
+1, somebody must have add too much excitment into Mathman's coffee today.
No wonder I was confuzzled. I still don't get it. But Wallylutz took care of himself capably.
Bradley talked about his technical BV being the highest and that it would help him land on the podium. Naturally his claim was examined and conveninetly compared to Chan's BV since Chan was asked about in the interview and he is a generally aknowledged contender. Calling such discussion hand-wring by Chan fans is unfounded and renders the preceeding declarations about Chan poorly veiled sarcasm.Chan is going to win worlds by 20 points. He will get straight 9's across the board in PCSs, well-deserved. He will hit a bunch of quads.Why then the hand-wringing about whether Bradley can or cannot amass 69.5 base points if he skates his best?
This doesn't come across sincere either after all those snarks.That was the point I was trying to make.
Who are you and what have you done with Mathman? Did you hack into his account? Give us back our sweet smart Mathman!
We will never know, will we? Since he doen't have much interest in those skills. He is pretty content with having difficult jumps and being able to be entertaining in an easy fashion that is natural to him without involving high technical skills. It's his choice and nothing wrong with that as that would be enough for a pro career. But in discussing his competitiveness at the upcoming Worlds, it is an issue that interests some fans on the board.What I was trying to get at in my comment about God-given talent is that Bradley will never skate like Chan (in terms of blade-on-ice skills, edging, footwork, transitions, steps and turns) no matter what motivation or inspiration might possess him. If training with Patrick got him at least to pour on the coal in the jumps department, good for him.
Ryan Bradley can get a medal at Worlds if he skates his best. His tech content is no joke and it's not as if the field is locked in. Pretty much EVERYONE is inconsistent and only Chan and Takahashi will be held up if they make major mistakes. Just look at Europeans - the highest scoring LP was 152. If Ryan Bradley delivers his SP and then skates his LP at least as well as he did at Nationals 2010, he will definitely score higher than 152. Nobunari Oda is a headcase and Kozuka, while having the potential to score huge, has his inconsistencies and won't be held up as much as Chan or Takahashi.
I maintain what I said elsewhere. If Bradley scores top six, I'll be floored. It can happen, I've been wrong more times than I've been right (life's more fun that way anyway). His technical content may be no joke, but his PCS certainly are.
His PCS won't be more than a few points behind anyone who isn't named Chan or Takahashi if he delivers the goods and the rest falter.
I sort of agree with you mathman but I am not convinced yet. Evan beat Chan like a drum in Vancouver and I am not so sure we won't see something like this in Moscow:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eF_3e_YzTr0
Chan still needs to prove he can step up and skate his best under pressure. I hope he and all the guys skate well in Moscow.
An "ice dancer" with jumps is an interesting concept and fun to watch. But the "chosen one" needs to shed his reputation as the "splat king" and perform well when it matters most.
I never use sarcasm.
When people see sarcasm in a post where none is present, how would you characterize that?
We keep mentioning his technical content. But what we mean is his jump content. How much is he gonna give up on his spins/footwork? This season has shifted towards the jumps (and he himself is mentioning that pretty much dominates his practice). , but how many points is he giving up there?
I guess my point is that Bradley is unable to absorb mistakes in his score as easily as other skaters. He scored 151 at his own Nationals for a skate the internationally would've been closer to 130 (5 points lost for the two URed quads, and I'm being generous to suggest that the PCS loss would've only been 0.6 per component).
Jeff Buttle scored mid 7's for his LP at Gothenburg for his perfect skate. As did Patrick Chan for his strong (one weak landing, two "lowered" jumps) LP in LA. While it's unfair to compare PCS like that, Bradley's best would likely be high sixes internationally.
Oda faltered at the GPF with two falls and a UR, and his PCS was still 78. What do you think a squeaky clean Bradley would score? High sixes to seven is still an eight point difference. Plus, will his mocking program really go over well in Russia?
If I'm underestimating him and he does pull off a top six placement, I'll be the first to admit I was wrong and welcome any crow served my way (well, not welcome, but you know what I mean).
ETA: If one sees sarcasm where none is there (which I did, Mathman), I guess I'd suggest you didn't make the point you were hoping to make.
Last edited by ImaginaryPogue; 04-08-2011 at 08:55 AM.
By far my favorite line from yesterday day was:
"this harmless hope than can be exorcised only by shining the purifying light of CoP numbers on it."
Brilliantly expressed but apparently it ruffled a few feathers and has more than one poster "'crying wolf."
I am reminded of this line from "Hamlet"
"Methinks he doth protest too much"
When one sees sarcasm where none is intended perhaps the word "paranoid" comes to mind.
The use of "Chan fan paranoia" also seemed reasonable enough as we have not seen numerous posts from fans of Dai, Kozuka, Joubert, etc repeatedly using CoP voodoo to knock Bradley's chances or the hopes of his fans.
A nice apology was offered by not accepted as sincere
All right. Lets try that than.The use of "Chan fan paranoia" also seemed reasonable enough as we have not seen numerous posts from fans of Dai, Kozuka, Joubert, etc repeatedly using CoP voodoo to knock Bradley's chances or the hopes of his fans.
A nice apology was offered by not accepted as sincere
This was Bradley's statement that seemed to raise eyebrows:
1. Going in with the highest base value (not technical score, but we'll get to that) is definitely an advantage.
2. The question than comes is Bradley actually doing so? Now, Hernando calls it COP voodoo, but my understanding is that the only way I can tell if this statement is true (that Bradley is going in with the highest base value) is to examine the elements he does, their placement, and do that math. Hernando, do you know a better way of examining the veracity of Bradley's statement that doesn't involve what you deride as COP voodoo?
3. I'm genuinely sorry you think we're knocking the hopes of his fans. As an aforementioned Chan fan (the ones riddled with paranoia, of course), I'm actually more worried about Chan's chances than say, someone like Blade or pangtongfan, who believe that he's gonna sweep his way to Sochi (ptf) or will win at least two worlds and likely Sochi (Blades). Of course, I get annoyed at everyone thinking it's so inevitable as it's a brilliant way to dismiss what he does on the ice, but oh well, cross to bear and all that jazz.
4. Joubert's not a COP skater. Why would his fans use COP to defend him?
5. I don't believe the apology was sincere. It also wasn't directed at me, so that's neither here nor there.
By the way, Bradley also claimed he was trying to bring up his levels on other stuff, by taking classes with his sister (who happens to be a "spin doctor") and with his old coach. I know he completely reworked his f/w in his SP. He thinks he has a high base value, based on that work.
He may well be deceived; many who thought their new spin was level 4 have had a big surprise in international scoring. And many whose spin was level 4 in theory couldn't perform that spin when it counted. However, I have no reason to believe Ryan was intentionally lying when he listed his base score.
If Kevin Reynolds is replacing Shawn Sawyer at Worlds, I expect he may actually have the highest base value though.
I'm not a HUGE fan of Bradley (although I have nothing against him either) but I see no reason why he couldn't bring home a medal if he skates 2 perfect programs with lots of Quad combos -- he has personality... kinda sorta like another quad king that I/we know and love who has lots of personality + jumps (but not much else).... and he won lotsa medals!
The only reason he wouldn't win a medal as well as that other person is because he doesn't have the reputation or backing of the judges.
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