Who Can put the Pressure on last years medalsist ladies Champions?

I think this shall be an interesting thread. We have many medalist who repeat the following years as even if it is a different color. This year I hope we have one or two new medalist on the podium.

About the pressure, how big of a factor can the audience be, as well?

It shall be interesting to see if we have people who haven't been on the podium after skating well.

Miki, Mao, and Yuna dominated the Worlds podium in the last Olympic quadrennial. Yuna's been there four out of four, Mao three out of four, and Miki two out of four. Joannie Rochette, Laura Lepisto and Carolina Kostner each medalled once in the last four years.

Given how Miki and Mao have been doing this season, there's a reasonable chance they'll both be on the podium. (I'm unsure about how the recent disaster in Japan might affect their performance, though.) Yuna can't miss the podium either, even if she "bombs" like Worlds 2007 or Worlds 2010. The "safest" bet is to expect all three--Miki, Mao and Yuna--to be in the podium in some order. But then figure skating's never been that predictable.

So who's the dark horse?

Since it's happening in Europe, I'd guess the skating gods would place Carolina Kostner on the podium. She alternates between disaster and success season by season, so it's only logical she'll be on the podium this year. She's got another major headcase chasing her tail though: Alissa Czisny. Those two are the most logical choices to pick for "new medalists" on the Worlds podium.

I'm almost certain it will be Miki, Mao and Yu-Na in some order, but I think Rachael Flatt is another dark horse, if she nails everything and one of the three favourites makes mistakes. I actually think there's more chance of her being on the podium than Alissa. Cynthia Phaneuf is another dark horse, although she didn't skate that well at 4CC.

Don't forget Murakami! What she lacks in unorthodox jump technique she makes up for with spunk. She is fun to watch.

blue_idealist said:

I actually think there's more chance of [Rachel] being on the podium than Alissa.

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Well, of course.

Despite my complete lack of interest in skating at the moment, I do ponder this question from time to time... I agree that Miki, Yuna and Mao will in most likelyhood stay atop the podium so I'm much more interested in seeing if Caro, Alissa and Rachael can rise to the challenge. Which one will be in the hunt if one of the top three falters? It sounds improbable, but I think Alissa out of the three has the most potential to challenge. Caro is simply too wacky and Rachael is so Rachael. I do, however, believe its put up or shut up time for the US Ladies. This is their best shot at getting the points to secure three spots next year and I sincerely hope that they don't blow it....

missed you, KW! sorry to hear your lack of interest in the sport. I miss you!

The odds of dethroning Miki,Mao and Yuna are very difficult this worlds.

The MEN who have different styles are open for podium change, imo.

How bad Virtue is with injury could play in a WD or even an off the podium. That leaves several teams to accompany D/W to the podium.

The top Pairs of yester year will be the same.

There's no way Virtue and Moir are going to be off the podium unless they withdraw or Tessa's injury has got WAY worse since 4CC (which I don't think is the case). I mean they still won the SD at 4CC over Davis and White.

Tonichelle said:

missed you, KW! sorry to hear your lack of interest in the sport. I miss you!

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I miss you too!!! I had a bit of a "Come to Dick Button" moment last night when it dawned on me that if crazies like myself allow my passion to dictated by the ups & downs of skaters, skating would've died years ago... The current crop don't excite me and the newbies cannot seem to get their stuff together but so what? The sport is morphing and I still love it, so I might as well suck it up and get on with it...

And I am totally facinated by this Worlds... few even know that the Japan quakes and ensuing drama derailed Worlds, skaters were packing when the event was moved, some gained much needed practice & healing time, others just received more time to contemplate their nerves, Russian rinks and fans. Will the skaters & skating rise to the occassion? Or will it be the worst thing ever... you never know and I cannot wait to see what happens...

Tonichelle said:

missed you, KW! sorry to hear your lack of interest in the sport. I miss you!

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Ditto!!

I think the pressure will be on YuNa. She is Olympic champion but she has not skated competitively all season and her nerves may get to her. Based on what I have seen on the ice this season, I give a slight edge to Miki winning gold with silver and bronze a toss up between Mao, YuNa, Alissa, Kira and Caro.

demarinis5 said:

Ditto!!

I think the pressure will be on YuNa. She is Olympic champion but she has not skated competitively all season and her nerves may get to her. Based on what I have seen on the ice this season, I give a slight edge to Miki winning gold with silver and bronze a toss up between Mao, YuNa, Alissa, Kira and Caro.

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I don't know. It seems to me that the competition will be more nerve-wracking for the Japanese skaters, given the recent earthquake. How will that tragedy weigh on their minds as they skate?

As for Yuna, she's not exactly known for tripping off the podium when put under immense pressure.

Krislite said:

As for Yuna, she's not exactly known for tripping off the podium when put under immense pressure.

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She's not exactly known for being an invincible machine, either.

R.D. said:

She's not exactly known for being an invincible machine, either.

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So very true... I can never figure out how this myth got started but Yuna is not the most consistent of skaters and it will be interesting to see how she fares...

If I were a betting woman, I think we are getting ready to see Miki retire with her second world title. But I'm not, so I won't.

R.D. said:

She's not exactly known for being an invincible machine, either.

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So what's your point? Of course she's not guaranteed gold. I was only pointing out that Yuna's never been off the podium even in her worst days. She's medaled in every competition since her novice years. What's going to change that? Is she seriously injured? Is she not prepared?

The only thing different about this year is her long absence from competition. But unlike other times when she was competing and didn't do her best, she's not facing immense expectations, she's not nursing some injury, and she's not unprepared or unmotivated. So what could possibly unnerve her?

Well, more so than others, she has the reputation to put her in medal contention even in her worst days.

My point is that (especially given what has occurred) anything can happen. I'm not ready to crown anyone in particular. Yes, Yuna and the Japanese ladies have an advantage right from the start and will likely make up the podium. But stranger things have happened.

R.D. said:

My point is that (especially given what has occurred) anything can happen. I'm not ready to crown anyone in particular. Yes, Yuna and the Japanese ladies have an advantage right from the start and will likely make up the podium. But stranger things have happened.

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I don't think anybody in their right mind would dispute that. Heck even I would admit there's a chance Carolina Kostner could win the world title and Mao and Yuna both end up off the podium. (Though I would say the chances of that happening are not much higher than the chances I win the lottery.) I don't see where people got the impression that I thought the results are guaranteed.

miki88 said:

Well, more so than others, she has the reputation to put her in medal contention even in her worst days.

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Actually, she has a reliable 3/3 combination even on her worst days which puts her in medal contention, in addition to being strong in program components.

And :disapp: at "more so than others," which isn't even close to being true. First of all, Yu-Na hasn't bombed that often in her entire career, so there is less of a need to rely on reputation at all.

Your implication is that others can't rely or rely less on reputation to put them in medal contention on their worst days. Well, this season there were quite a few skaters with a "reputation," both male and female, who got top PCS marks when their performances were less than stellar and got a boost in placement, but their name wasn't Yu-Na Kim.

Try isolating a skater's TES marks from the SP/LP and seeing where it ranks versus their overall placement/PCS. For Yu-Na, where her TES would place her overall has never been lower than her actual overall placement, even with her worst days, which indicates that independently of an argument about her artistry/component scores, what she accomplished technically was enough to justify at least that minimum placement (if not more). This cannot be said of all other skaters with a reputation who have had a bad day, which means PCS (the mark more prone to subjectivity and being influenced by reputation) played a larger part in determining their placement. That does not necessarily mean that that overall placement is wrong, but there is more subjectivity at play and that certainly opens their placement up more for debate.

Many skaters have benefited from reputation on a bad day and it's not exclusive to any single skater, but Yu-Na has not been the biggest beneficiary of reputation by a long shot. I can name a half dozen skaters from this season alone who benefited in placement more from the subjective side of the scoring system than Yu-Na ever did.

R.D. said:

My point is that (especially given what has occurred) anything can happen. I'm not ready to crown anyone in particular. Yes, Yuna and the Japanese ladies have an advantage right from the start and will likely make up the podium. But stranger things have happened.

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I agree with this, of course. Nobody's crowned until the competition's over, and I could very well see a dark horse candidate in the ladies breaking through to the podium (Alissa or Kostner being the most likely ones, IMO). That said, I think people are talking about a skater's chances of success based on past history, which seems reasonable.

This Worlds still feels weird to me and I'm not sure what to expect from the ladies in...Russia.

Many skaters have benefited from reputation on a bad day and it's not exclusive to any single skater, but Yu-Na has not been the biggest beneficiary of reputation by a long shot. I can name a half dozen skaters from this season alone who benefited in placement more from the subjective side of the scoring system than Yu-Na ever did.

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Exactly...*cough*Carolina Kostner *cough*Kiira Korpi *cough**cough* miki ando