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Thread: Who Can put the Pressure on last years medalsist ladies Champions?

  1. #31
    Yuna's Ice Rink cooper's Avatar
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    Medal or not, I just want to see Yuna skate again.

    I agree that Miki is the favorite. If there's anyone who can knock off one of the favorites from the podium it will be Kanako, followed by Kostner and Alissa.

  2. #32
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    'Scuse me while I geek out on CoP/IJS stats. Personally, I find the numbers fascinating and a heck of a lot more insightful than the meaningless placeholders under 6.0. (Though, I loved the beauty of a 6.0...)

    Quote Originally Posted by miki88 View Post
    At Worlds last year, she had one of her "bad days" and she got a 65 in the PCS portion for her FS. No one else in the ladies was coming close to that range during the Grand Prix this season. In fact, hitting 60 was already a feat. As a Olympic champ, she does have an advantage over others in terms of reputation. The same can be said for Virtue/Moir. This is not necessarily a bad thing since there are reasons for her having a higher reputation, which you obviously have listed in your argument.
    Your original claim has two parts: 1) Yu-Na has a reputation that puts her into medal contention even on her worst days and 2) this is "more so than other skaters." So she got 65 at last year's Worlds for one of her own weaker skates and this year's ladies haven't...but I don't see how this supports your argument. The question is did PCS--which is the mark that is more subjective than TES, and more susceptible to influence by reputation--place her into medal contention when she otherwise would not have been? And if so, has this happened more frequently than other skaters? The answer is a resounding no to both questions.

    At 2010 Worlds, Yu-Na won the silver with a margin of 12 points over 3rd, and was very far off from 1st by a margin of 7 points. You could take away 12 points from her PCS, leaving her with the PCS total that Ksenia Makarova (8th in the LP) or Rachael Flatt (9th in the LP) got, and Yu-Na still would have won the silver. Why wouldn't taking away such a large chunk of PCS make a difference in the medal result? First, because this competition stunk, and a large number of top skaters had "bad days." :sheesh: Second, because even in one of Yu-Na's "bad days" (which is relatively speaking, of course), she accomplished difficult jumps and combinations that no other skater at that competition (or this season, actually) did: 3Lz/3T, spread eagle into a 2A/3T, Ina Bauer into a 2A/2T/2Lo, which helped her base value, garnered GOE and contributed to a high technical score, high enough to completely justify her ending placement on the podium, with or without any help from the judges in components. Yu-Na's overall placement (2nd) is identical to her TES-only placement (2nd).

    Even if it hadn't been the same, Yu-Na, like other top skaters, arguably does deserve high components even if a performance has a few mistakes, but I don't have to make that argument because Yu-Na has earned her results technically without needing the generosity of the judges (i.e. reputation points) to boost her overall. I doubt you will be able to find a single past competition where Yu-Na earned a higher placement on the podium than what her overall TES total indicated, even on any of her bad days, which she hasn't had a lot of. Not Worlds 2010, Skate America 2009, or 2008 GPF. Her TES score placement matched her podium finish every time, with the only few exceptions being where she was arguably underscored in components and got a lower podium finish than her TES placement.

    But how about other skaters? Other skaters this season, non-Olympic champions, have been quite generously rewarded in components when their performances appeared less than worthy. And as a matter of fact, their placement would have been different had they not received higher PCS versus other skaters who had a higher TES.

    A few examples:

    Patrick Chan: 2010 Skate Canada (TES placement = 3rd; actual = 1st)
    Daisuke Takahashi: 2010 GPF (TES pl = 6th; actual = 4th)
    Mao Asada: 2010 NHK Trophy (TES pl = 11th; actual = 8th)
    Alissa Czisny: 2010 Trophee Eric Bompard (TES pl = 5th; actual = 3rd)
    Carolina Kostner: 2009 Worlds, 2010 Olympics ()

    I tried to pick a cross-section of skaters, as I am not trying to single anyone out. This kind of thing does happen and not just for Olympic champions, and it is not necessarily bad (see below). But the evidence shows that it happens more frequently for non-Olympic champions than the current ladies Olympic champion, and there are more examples out there.

    Just be clear: the skaters above had total TES scores (SP+LP) that indicated a different placement than what they actually ended up getting, which indicates that PCS played a significant part in positively improving that skater's placement. This does not necessarily mean that the placement was unearned or that they did not deserve high PCS, it just means their placement relied more on the judges' determination that they deserved higher components than other skaters who delivered more technical content. It is very well possible that they deserved every point of that PCS, but that is a separate debate.

    But my point is that every one of the skaters above has arguably benefited in terms of placement from alleged "reputation" scoring by the judges in terms of final placement, more so than Yu-Na ever did. Actually, the only part of the original argument that I can agree with is that Yu-Na has a reputation, period. But it certainly hasn't put her into medal contention by itself and it certainly is not more of a factor than for other skaters.

  3. #33
    Beliver in Sasha's Perfect Program Tinymavy15's Avatar
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    I think Alissa can land in the broze medal spot this year. So often that 3rd spot goes to an unexpected skater (like Laura last year) and Alissia proved that she is being taken seriously by the International Judges at the GPF this season. If she skates clean, it won't be that easy to beat her unless you are Mao or yu-na.

  4. #34
    Beliver in Sasha's Perfect Program Tinymavy15's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by blue_idealist View Post
    There's no way Virtue and Moir are going to be off the podium unless they withdraw or Tessa's injury has got WAY worse since 4CC (which I don't think is the case). I mean they still won the SD at 4CC over Davis and White.
    Virtue and Moir will win if they skate clean imo. I hope both they and Marlie skate well and that Marlie wins this one, but I don't see Voir placing below them unless they make a drastic error somewhere. Yes, they have not competed all season, but their SD at 4cc seemed to be very well received. Their coaches know what's up.

  5. #35
    Custom Title Joesitz's Avatar
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    This is becoming a prediction thread. No?

  6. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tinymavy15 View Post
    Virtue and Moir will win if they skate clean imo. I hope both they and Marlie skate well and that Marlie wins this one, but I don't see Voir placing below them unless they make a drastic error somewhere. Yes, they have not competed all season, but their SD at 4cc seemed to be very well received. Their coaches know what's up.
    If both are clean, the judges will give D/W the benefit of the doubt in PCS, I think.

  7. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tinymavy15 View Post
    I think Alissa can land in the broze medal spot this year. So often that 3rd spot goes to an unexpected skater (like Laura last year) and Alissia proved that she is being taken seriously by the International Judges at the GPF this season. If she skates clean, it won't be that easy to beat her unless you are Mao or yu-na.
    There just isn't enough space on Earth to fit that big IF.

  8. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tinymavy15 View Post
    I think Alissa can land in the broze medal spot this year. So often that 3rd spot goes to an unexpected skater (like Laura last year) and Alissia proved that she is being taken seriously by the International Judges at the GPF this season. If she skates clean, it won't be that easy to beat her unless you are Mao or yu-na.
    Miki and Kanako are much more consistent with their jumps than Alissa this season, and will get comparable PCS, so I think it's more likely Alissa will finish in the 4th-6th range. Of course, Miki and Kanako are capable of bombing, but I don't think they will, based on the way they have been performing recently. With Miki not going for the 3-3 or 3f in the SP, I'm pretty convinced she'll skate two very solid programs and land on the podium. Alissa doesn't get great GOE on her jumps and doesn't always rotate them either. I tend to think she'll finish ahead of Rachael and Kiira, though, and as for Carolina I'm not even going to guess.

  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by silverlake22 View Post
    Miki and Kanako are much more consistent with their jumps than Alissa this season, and will get comparable PCS, so I think it's more likely Alissa will finish in the 4th-6th range. Of course, Miki and Kanako are capable of bombing, but I don't think they will, based on the way they have been performing recently. With Miki not going for the 3-3 or 3f in the SP, I'm pretty convinced she'll skate two very solid programs and land on the podium. Alissa doesn't get great GOE on her jumps and doesn't always rotate them either. I tend to think she'll finish ahead of Rachael and Kiira, though, and as for Carolina I'm not even going to guess.
    ITA. What holding Alissa always has been her jump. Even if she didn't fall, her jumps are prone to underrotation. On average she falls and/or < jump at least once (of course she did a few programs with 6 triples) and in world championship she cann't afford this kind of mistake.

  10. #40
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    On one though, I hope Kanako win the title so everyone can shutup about the whole Yuna-Mao-Miki cat fight. lol

  11. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by R.D. View Post
    There just isn't enough space on Earth to fit that big IF.
    IF you are not a fan then I have never met one. A fan, short for fanatic can root for or against things. You most definitely are a cheerleader as well seeing how you lead the cheering against Alissa.

    You exhibit a fanatical belief that Alissa will always fail.

    I have a few doubts as to how clean Mao and Yuna may skate at Worlds. The delay may hurt some skaters more than others. Last season Miki could not bring her best at the Olympics or Worlds. This season we saw inconsistency cost her at the GPF.

    IF Miki skates her best she has a great chance to be on the podium. IF Mao and Yuna skate their best they will probably be on the podium.

    I think Alissa has a sporting chance. I agree with Tiny, and see no reason to continually put down Alissa after the season she just had.

    But I guess it is just to much for you to resist leading the cheers against Alissa.

  12. #42
    Mashimaro on Ice
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    I hope Alissa does well. Her long program this season is so wonderful.

  13. #43
    nefertiti..reincarnate
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    Since this is placed in the Edge and not in Worlds thread, I'll take the original question (though a bit hard to understand) as "who will increase their possibility to poduim NEXT SEASON after Worlds, over those who have dominated the Ladies singles up till now?"

    My answer is, those who are immune to pressure will.
    Alissa, Caro, Mirai, Kiira .... they are not yet immune enough IMO. Some of these might never be.

    In that sense, Kanako has the most potential as of now, as I see.
    Rachael, maybe .... depends on her strategy.
    Mirai .... Once she gets gold, she'll change.

  14. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hernando View Post
    IF you are not a fan then I have never met one....
    R.D. is an equal opportunity skeptic. He is not against any particular skater. In fact, his top two nicest skaters to meet so far are Alissa and Meryl Davis.

  15. #45
    Banned janetfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    R.D. is an equal opportunity skeptic. He is not against any particular skater. In fact, his top two nicest skaters to meet so far are Alissa and Meryl Davis.
    I am afraid I can't agree with your post and find RD to be totally biased against Alissa.

    Would it be inaccurate to say his/her last few posts here are displaying a healthy dose of
    "Czisny Dizzy paranoia."

    Hey, some skater's names are not so easy to rhyme with
    Last edited by janetfan; 04-14-2011 at 02:04 PM.

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