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Thread: Worlds 2011: Ladies predictions

  1. #31
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    I'm not sure Miki should tamper with her LP jumping layout - 2A-3T and 5 jumps in the second half give her a nice BV anyway. With Shin Amano on the judging panel it's better to be safe than sorry.

    3S-3L and 3Lz in the SP is an excellent idea, though. And her 3S-3L in the practice looked just fabulous - great coverage and no hook/snow on the landing.

  2. #32
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    Mao doesn't need two 3A period. Her 3A in 4CC is one of the best in a long time, prob since her junior days. Bare in mind, Mao makes at least 4 mistakes (minors or majors depending on your view) where Miki goes squeaky clean @ 4CC.

  3. #33
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    Shin Amano is the Tech Specialist for Ladies. He is known to be very strict and not very popular with the Japanese.

  4. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ilvskating View Post
    I don't know who to root for. I want to see them all skate clean. This is going to be a great World. I'm going to watch all of them on live stream, get days off for this competition, just soak it all in))
    I wish I could do that! Hope you enjoy every moment of it.

    I have exactly the same feeling about Worlds: I hope the postponement coupled with the adverse events in Japan will serve to inspire everyone, both Japanese and non-Japanese, to skate calmly and to the best of his/her abilities. As for whom I hope to see on the podium, I feel one way one day and another way the next. There are so many good skaters! As long as they all skate their best, I'm cool with the results. I want this Worlds to live in legend!

  5. #35
    Six Point Zero Krislite's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    [...]
    So she will gain a few points by going for this layout. If Miki's clean, it will take a clean Kim to beat her. Kim's BV is a bit less than Miki's. Miki has Morozov and skates in Russia and is Japanese. Her PCS will be good. Just like Joannie's inflated PCS in Vancouver.
    Miki's scores in 4CC maybe a fluke, but a comment from the Korean ISU judges say the ISU was purposefully pushing for higher GOE differential this season. But in any case, if Miki is clean, Mao and Yuna can still overtake her easily with some mistakes. They get much higher PCS than Miki and Yuna gets huge GOE, more than enough to offset Miki's higher BV. Base Value really doesn't count that much, otherwise Rachael Flatt would have been Worlds and Olympic champ already.

    I'm not so sure how much more help Miki gets for being Japanese and having a Russian coach. There's Russian politiking behind the scenes, surely, and she might get sympathy points for the recent disaster, but I'm not so sure it would be that blatant or affect the results much.

    Besides politics, there's also reputation, and a two-time world champ and an Olympic champ/world champ will earn bigger reputation points from the judges.

  6. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by Krislite View Post
    Miki's scores in 4CC maybe a fluke, but a comment from the Korean ISU judges say the ISU was purposefully pushing for higher GOE differential this season. But in any case, if Miki is clean, Mao and Yuna can still overtake her easily with some mistakes. They get much higher PCS than Miki and Yuna gets huge GOE, more than enough to offset Miki's higher BV. Base Value really doesn't count that much, otherwise Rachael Flatt would have been Worlds and Olympic champ already.
    Mao was seemingly clean in 4cc and lost to Miki. In any case, it's not like Mao and Yuna has 5 points advantage over Miki for PCS. How much higher are you talking about? Miki gets huge GOE as well. BV doesn't count that much? When was Rachael's BV higher than everyone else but she still lost?
    Besides politics, there's also reputation, and a two-time world champ and an Olympic champ/world champ will earn bigger reputation points from the judges.
    Miki is a world champ as well. Her reputation this season seems to be better than Mao's.

  7. #37
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    Shin Amano, really? He is the one who downgraded almost perfect 3a of Mao at world's last year. I even saw death threat to him somewhere.
    Hope Mao will not get too nervous.

  8. #38
    Skating is art, if you let it be. Blades of Passion's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BackStage Barbie View Post
    I'm predicting the top 5 as 1) Kim 2) Ando 3) Asada 4) Czisny 5) Flatt
    That's definitely the smart money for the top 3, but I'm going to predict Kostner as #5, Murakami as #6, and Flatt as #7. Flatt isn't going to get any of her Triple-Triple or 2Axel-Triple combinations ratified and her PCS/GOE usually always falls short.

  9. #39
    Quote Originally Posted by Blades of Passion View Post
    That's definitely the smart money for the top 3, but I'm going to predict Kostner as #5, Murakami as #6, and Flatt as #7. Flatt isn't going to get any of her Triple-Triple or 2Axel-Triple combinations ratified and her PCS/GOE usually always falls short.

    I must admit that some of my personal hopes are laced in with my "predictions". I would love to see Rachael in the top 5, though I realize that Kostner gets those sky-high PCS points even though she doesn't deserve them.

  10. #40
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    I think Miki will keep her LP layout the same, but maybe change her SP layout to 3s-3lo and 3lz in an attempt to not let Yuna win the competition with the SP if she's clean. All the jumps and combos in the back half of Miki's program get her BV up, and from the looks of it, Yuna won't be doing a 3lo or a 2a-3t combo in her FS, so Miki is not really at a disadvantage and I really don't see her doing a 3f or doing a random double jump somewhere just to add a 3-3. I think her peak FS score was reached at 4CC, but if she ups the content in her SP then she could gain a few extra points in that segment, getting her to around 205 which I can't imagine would be off the podium.

  11. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by wonderlen3000 View Post
    ETA. She is doing great so far and all she has to do is repeat the same performances from 4CC and there is no way Miki will be off the podium. No ones other than Kim and Asada can over take her points wise. Even if Cizney, Flatt, Kostner & Murakami goes super clean, I doubt they will crack the 190 mark.
    I agree with this. Czisny and Kostner don't have the content and Murakami will likely not get the PCS needed to break 200. If Miki's clean, she will medal. Not saying she will be clean, but if she is, I don't see her off the podium.

  12. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by Okami View Post
    "Keeps on"? 4CC was only the second time Mao attempted this combo since Worlds 2007. And despite attempting the combo for the first time in a long time, she didn't splat. Her 4CC combo looked better than the JO one, and the one done in the warm-up looked fully rotated. The ice coverage on 2A has improved a lot - Mao used to jump more "up-and-down", now her 2A's cover a lot of ice.
    Mao popped both axel attempts at TEB and NHK. I'm assuming she didn't go for a second 3A, so that makes four failed attempts this season (out of....four), with her last successful execution in 2007. 0% is not an impressive success rate by any means. I also vaguely remember that she got hit with UR calls even back in 2006-2007, but I'm up for correction. Yes, her "layout for the gods" is a worthy goal, but an unrealistic one at the moment. If she's conceding that second 3A and perhaps her 3-3 as well for pragmatic reasons, why not omit the 2A-3T as well and play safe(r)? I actually think she has more to gain from a totally clean performance with that 2A-3T diluted to a 2A-2T (like at Nationals). Of course, this is in the context of Worlds 2011. I'm very much supportive of her goal for Sochi, but think competition may call for concessions. Again, I actually think she has a better chance fully rotating that 3F-3Lo, which would make up for points lost by breaking down the 2A-3T into a 2A-2T.

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