Falls Stats For This Season's Front Runners

[SkateFiguring]

Since people love to talk falls, I compiled here Falls and Wins stats of the front runners so far this season:


*= Win, CW = Clean win, WF = Win with falls

Kozuka -*COC 0, *TEB 0, GPF 0, *NAT 2, 4CC 1 = 3 Falls, 2 CW, 1 WF

Chan - *SC 4, COR 4, *GPF 0, *NAT 0 = 8 Falls, 2 CW, 1 WF

Takahashi - *NHK 1, *SA 1, GPF 2, NAT 1, *4CC 1 = 6 Falls, 3 WF

Oda - SC 1, SA 1, GPF 2, NAT 4 = 8 Falls, No Win



This can be looked at various ways.

Total Falls - Chan 8/4 comp, Oda 8/4, Takahashi 6/5, and Kozuka 3/5.

Total Wins - Chan 3/4 comp, Kozuka 3/5, Takahashi 3/5.

Total Clean Wins - Chan 2/3, Kozuka 2/3, Takahashi 0/3

Total Wins with Falls - Takahashi 3/3, Chan 1/3, Kozuka, 1/3

Total Falls Pre GPF - Chan 8, Takahashi 2, Oda 2, Kozuka 0

Total Falls GPF and after - Oda 6/2 comp, Takahashi 4/3, Kozuka 3/3, Chan 0/2

Total Medals - Chan 4/4 comp, Oda 4/4, Kozuka 4/5, Takahashi 4/5

Oda and Takahashi have not had a clean comp. Kozuka was clean his first 3 comps and Chan the last 2.

Chan has won all direct competitions with the others. Oda has come in 2nd in all competitions he was in.

[SkateFiguring]

Now, to pit these skaters against each other directly:

Chan has beat them all. (SC, GPF)

Kozuka beat Takahashi twice. (GPF, NAT)

Takahashi beat Kozuka once. (4CC)

Oda beat Takahashi twice. (GPF, NAT)

Takahashi beat Oda once, or rather Oda beat himself. (SA)

Oda beat Kozuka once. (GPF)

Kozuka beat Oda once. (NAT)

I rank the degree of difficulty for the competitions in this order: GPF, JPN NAT, 4CC, GP Events, CDN NAT.

Based on these direct competitions, I would rank these skaters

1. Chan
2. Oda
3. Kozuka
4. Takahashi

(Oda and Kozuka are very even. I give the edge to Oda because of higher prestige/difficulty of GPF and a less convincing win by Takahashi at SA.)

By momentum, the order would be

1. Chan
2. Takahashi
3. Oda
4. Kozuka.

[Bluebonnet]

These are very interesting. SkateFiguring, appreciate your effort! Thanks!

I agree Kozuka and Oda are about the same. But I think Oda has shown more ups and downs, looks more easily to be affected by the surroundings. If Oda wasn't like that, he should have won many more competitions by now, and be the strongest one among the three Japanese guys.

Takahashi is, sorry to say this, a little over the hill. His artistry is almost reaching what it could possibly reach. But his technical, precisely jumping, abilities weren't the best any more. He needs other skaters to make mistakes and relys on his own high PCS to win.

Kozuka is up and coming steadily. The judges recognation this season could overcome anything and put him on the top.

Chan is the strongest one of all, and my sentimental favorite. He is not unbeatable. The extreme hypes and expectations could add extra pressure on his mind and play the trick against him. We've seen it at 2010 Olympics.

Good luck on everyone. It's going to be great!

[wonderlen3000]

Interesting facts....IF the following scenarios happens:
All skates clean (no falls/stepouts/pop jumps) Chan and Taka will battle for Gold and Silver, with bronze between Kozuka and Oda.
1.Chan, 2.Takahashi. 3.Kozuka, 4.Oda...
All had one mistake...same order!!

I say both Taka and Chan has at least one fall or mistake cushion over Kozuka/Oda based on GOE and PCS. Between Chan and Taka, its a battle of who make the least mistakes.

[SkateFiguring]

I agree Kozuka and Oda are about the same. But I think Oda has shown more ups and downs, looks more easily to be affected by the surroundings. If Oda wasn't like that, he should have won many more competitions by now, and be the strongest one among the three Japanese guys.

Well, actually Oda is the most steady one this year, straight silver medals in all events, regardless of numbers of falls or events or competitors. However, it must be frustrating as it's well known that silver is the least happy medal. I don't see him as the same as last year but there is something in his head that makes him surrender his gold too many times.

Takahashi is, sorry to say this, a little over the hill. His artistry is almost reaching what it could possibly reach. But his technical, precisely jumping, abilities weren't the best any more. He needs other skaters to make mistakes and relys on his own high PCS to win.

Technically, Takahashi has been doing poorly this year, but actual performance is not the only thing that counts in a competition. He managed to win in different ways, sometimes with a little help. He lost his luck and momentum at GPF, porobably due to the crash, carried over to but recovering at JPN NAT. He went on to score his best win this season at 4CC. I put the momentum on his side also because he is known to peak at the end of season and bring it at the big show.

Kozuka is up and coming steadily. The judges recognation this season could overcome anything and put him on the top.

Except he sort of loses his momentum in this excellent season for him. I was surprised he didn't rank higher as done in my post. He started out really well but seemed to have peaked at TEB and fell off the podium at the last competition, the 4CC. Still, he is one of the few with the whole package. And, he is going to Worlds as the Japan champ.

Chan is the strongest one of all, and my sentimental favorite. He is not unbeatable. The extreme hypes and expectations could add extra pressure on his mind and play the trick against him. We've seen it at 2010 Olympics.

More than Oda, Chan is a different competitor now from last year. The Olympic hype was unwarrented and damaging, considering the season he had - illness, injury, inadequet training, badly timed coaching change, and with only 2 competitions under his belt going into the Olympics. This year's hype is legitimate even if I don't like it. He earned it along with all the derision from the falls in the start of the season. He has had an excellent and amazing progression all season. The skills, performance, and fitness are all there. And from his latest interviews, I feel he is mentally very strong as well. Slippery ice is maybe 95% mental, so there may be 5% chance of unexpected events affecting a performance but I'd say he is very well prepared in all aspects of the game. Moreoever, this is not the Olympics and not at home, and he's learned so much from the Olympics experience, so I wouldn't expect the same head space for him.

I lack enough info to know how the other skaters are affected mentally by the disasters and postponement of Worlds. As far as I know, Dai's work ethics is a double edged sword. He needs to believe he has trained hard enough to deserve to win or he would go all negative and self sabotage, making the performance much worse than it ought to be. I don't know how he feels about his "right" to win at this Worlds. Oda seems determined and focused enough to fly back to Canada to prepare for Worlds instead of staying longer in Japan with his family or participate in fundraising shows. I don't know what exactly is the confidence booster for Kozuka. He is shy by nature, loving to skate but not the performing, but this season should be great in pushing him forward, except I don't know how he takes the loss of momentum and the turmoils associated with the disasters. Not sure how being the top Japan man affects him either. It should pump him up but he did his worst in subsequent 4CC.

Good luck on everyone. It's going to be great!

[Blades of Passion]

Well, actually Oda is the most steady one this year, straight silver medals in all events, regardless of numbers of falls or events or competitors. However, it must be frustrating as it's well known that silver is the least happy medal. I don't see him as the same as last year but there is something in his head that makes him surrender his gold too many times.

He didn't "surrender" Gold at Skate Canada and Skate America...the judges just screwed him over and decided to give Gold to skaters who skated poorly. Chan and Takahashi are definitely better skaters but they didn't deserve to win those events.

Anyway, Oda needs to be less boring. His SP at the beginning of the season showed a lot of promise but instead of getting better throughout the season, that program has actually become watered down choreographically and he hasn't stepped up his performance at all. His LP has been boring throughout the whole season.

[SkateFiguring]

Interesting facts....IF the following scenarios happens:
All skates clean (no falls/stepouts/pop jumps) Chan and Taka will battle for Gold and Silver, with bronze between Kozuka and Oda.
1.Chan, 2.Takahashi. 3.Kozuka, 4.Oda...
All had one mistake...same order!!

I say both Taka and Chan has at least one fall or mistake cushion over Kozuka/Oda based on GOE and PCS. Between Chan and Taka, its a battle of who make the least mistakes.

There is always the slippery ice factor that may let in a medalist from outside this bunch. But I expect one Canadian and at least one Japanese on the podium, likely two Japanese. We only have a few more days to wait now.

Let the show begin!

[SkateFiguring]

He didn't "surrender" Gold at Skate Canada and Skate America...the judges just screwed him over and decided to give Gold to skaters who skated poorly. Chan and Takahashi are definitely better skaters but they didn't deserve to win those events.

Such declaration does not make it so without supporting facts.

Judges did their job according to rules. Oda didn't step up at SC after the winning SP and did the extra combo at SA. He could have shut down any opportunity for judges to mark him down, which they had to.

[Blades of Passion]

Oda did well enough in the LP at Skate Canada to win overall. Patrick Chan's horribly flawed performance in the Short Program was grossly overmarked.

The illogical rule quirk that caused Oda to lose Skate America is reason enough to say he was screwed over. That rule should have been fixed years ago; it's like one of those laws from 100+ years ago, such as "it is illegal to sell peanuts in Lee County after sundown on Wednesday" (no joke, check Alabama state law), that is still on the books but has absolutely no reason to be (in that specific form anyway). Oda deserved to win Skate America even WITH the deduction from the nonsensical CoP rule, though. Takahashi was very overscored and received his highest PCS ever in the LP for a lackluster performance.