The Top Skaters of Today

**Joesitz** · 04-21-2011, 09:57 PM

We have from competitions acknowledged a Winner, 2 podium placers, and because of the GPs, we acknowledge Top Six; and our personal picks of Top Ten.

But this season has produced an enormous amout of daredevil Mens skaters.
Takahashi
Oda
Kozuka
Bradley
Dornbush
Miner
Chan
Amodio
Joubert
Verner
Brezina
Gachinsky
Fernandez
Contesti

The mind boggles at who will be in the last six to skate? and who will be in the penultimate group to skate?

What do you think the groups will be?

How would you name the top 10?

**Layfan** · 04-22-2011, 12:13 AM

Hard to predict who will falter. But assuming they don't, Chan, Takahashi, Kozuka and Oda are my surest picks for making top six. They've all had their moments this season, if I'm not mistaken, where they've shown they are hard to beat when on. That leaves two spots. Very difficult. But I'm going to go with Amodio, Joubert or Verner - the Euro medalists.
Bradley could sneak in there if he manages to hit his quads and have no major mistakes. It's a long shot. Hard to tell how the other two Americans will be received at their first senior worlds. Plus, they have no quads.
I think the other European, say Brezina, have a better shot than the Americans, objectively speaking..
Maybe I'm totally out of it but did Kevin Van der Peren retire? I'd also throw him in the mix. And what about the Canadian Kevin? Given his recent performances I'm sort of counting him out but I'm willing to be talked out of it

**doubleflutz** · 04-22-2011, 04:36 AM

The mind boggles at who will be in the last six to skate?

Chan
Takahashi
Oda
Kozuka
Joubert
Amodio

and who will be in the penultimate group to skate?

Verner
Brezina
Contesti
Gachinski
Kevin Reynolds
Fernandez

How would you name the top 10?

Reasonable Canidates for Podium:
Chan
Takahashi
Oda
Kozuka
Joubert

Reasonable Canidates for Bronze If Someone Mucks Up + 4-6:
Kozuka
Joubert
Amodio
Verner
Brezina
Contesti
Gachinski
Kevin Reynolds
Fernandez

Reasonable Canidates for Bottom Half of Top 10:
Contesti
Gachinski
Kevin Reynolds
Fernandez
KVDP
Ryan Bradley
Random Quad-Landing Chinese Jumping Bean

I think it's incredibly unlikely that Ryan Bradley will make it to even the penultimate flight of skaters. Unless he's been working on a 4S or 4LO in secret, the highest jump content he can hope for in the SP is 4T-3T, 3A, 3LZ, and there are a slew of men there who are capable of that or a solo 4T/3-3/3A, including Chan, Joubert, KVDP, Gachinski, some Chinese, Fernandez, Verner (theoretically), all of Team Japan (again, in theory), and even Kevin Reynolds, who could bust out 4S-3T/3A/4T (yes, I know, super unlikely). Now, I don't think most of them will hit that or even try, but that's way too many guys capable of solid quads and 3As for Bradley to get a lead just through tech. Most of them are much better technical skaters than he is, too: better spins, footwork, etc. Even when he hits, his jumps just aren't that great technique-wise.

That isn't taking into account PCS at all, nor the fact that the difference between a program with 3LZ-3T/3A/3F and 4T-3T/3A/3LZ is not too big. Easy enough to overcome with strong non-jump elements, GOE, and PCS, as we've seen time and again. Where he could gain some of it back is in the LP, but this is also true of the other jumping beans, and I think skating order still plays a pretty significant factor in judging. In some ways, I think the fight for the lower half of the top ten and the top fifteen is going to be just as interesting, maybe more so, than the fight for the podium.

**Joesitz** · 04-22-2011, 08:30 AM

^^^^^
Doublelutz - You have a very interesting summation of the results for the Top skaters. I agree but in taking into account the PCs, there is room to bring up a score for a skater who has kind of messed up his Tech if a judge thinks that is appropriate based on favoritism, past results, and reputation.

Sorry, I left out Kevin v.d.Perren. He's definitely in the mix if Quads are required.

I also have a personal list of hopes as well as a list of more than likelies. I agree Bradley's finish in the top 10 is iffy, and my favorite Brezina will have rough going this season.

**blue_idealist** · 04-22-2011, 04:55 PM

I think the top 10 will be:

Chan
Takahashi
Joubert
Kozuka
Verner
Oda
Amodio
Van der Perren
Brezina
Bradley (maybe)

If not Bradley, then Contesti, Reynolds, Gachinski, or Dornbush. Maybe even Fernandez, but he hasn't been that strong this season. Neither has Brezina, but since he was 5th last year it's hard for me to see him dropping below 10th place. Maybe it's just wishful thinking, me including Bradley as 10th *sigh*. lol. VDP also has a good chance of dropping out of the top 10 if he skates weakly, but since he has so many high-level jumping passes and his stamina hasn't been as poor as in 2010, I think he probably will remain in the top 10.

I'm not quite sure how this will work itself out re: the SP and the LP though. I think Chan and Takahashi are guaranteed to be in the final flight. I almost said Joubert will surely be but then I remember at Euros he was in the penultimate group and then pulled himself up for a medal. Yeah, I'm pretty sure Chan and Takahashi are the only locks for the final group.

**ImaginaryPogue** · 04-22-2011, 06:20 PM

Why can't you see Brezina falling out of the top ten? van de Perren went from 6th (2008) to 14th (2009). Brezina's dealing with coming back from injury. If he falters and others rise up, I can see it.

I think Oda is a lock for the final group. In international competition, he delivered his SP very well and won the program each time out.

**SkateFiguring** · 04-22-2011, 07:03 PM

Oda is a the foremost SP specialist. Not much counting required there.

He is the only one to have beat Chan in SP this season. Twice. Each time they met. His most successful quad, a combo, was in the SP, and it was the best of all quad combos in the season. So he is also the only one to have beat Chan in that category.

He is also a silver medal specialist. It didn't matter which competition, who his competitors were, how many times he fell, 1 or 4, in the competition, if he came in first after SP as in all international events or 3rd as in his Nationals, he managed to win the silver medal.

Oda is a lock for the final flight. If he were not there, he would probably have bombed out of the whole competition. I will watch for his streak and see if it would put a wrench in other skaters' plans.

eta. I just realized it was Oda's (bad) luck to compete against Chan and Takahashi in his two GP assignments. He should have easily won a couple of gold medals if assigned differently.

**ImaginaryPogue** · 04-22-2011, 07:49 PM

Of course, he did beat Takahashi twice this season (Nationals, GPF), so it's not all luck.

**SkateFiguring** · 04-22-2011, 08:19 PM

^^^^ I laid out all the head to head results among the front runners in the Falls Stats thread.

He has beat both Takahashi and Kozuka without winning the events. Second place each time, of course.

**ImaginaryPogue** · 04-22-2011, 09:21 PM

Right, but beating Takahashi means twice means that it wasn't actually unlucky to face Takahashi at his GP event. He's beaten him more than he's lost to him this season.

**blue_idealist** · 04-22-2011, 09:57 PM

Originally Posted by ImaginaryPogue

Why can't you see Brezina falling out of the top ten? van de Perren went from 6th (2008) to 14th (2009). Brezina's dealing with coming back from injury. If he falters and others rise up, I can see it.

I think Oda is a lock for the final group. In international competition, he delivered his SP very well and won the program each time out.

Idk, I just feel like Brezina won't. I guess because he's a much better skater in general than VDP, except for the jumps. VDP tends to run out of gas a lot, as we all probably know.

I forgot that Oda always won the SP. If I had remembered that I might have considered him as a lock for the final group.

**ImaginaryPogue** · 04-22-2011, 10:18 PM

I think he'll stay inside the top ten as well, but I don't see him in the top five this time (and he was 4th in 2010, fwiw).

**SkateFiguring** · 04-22-2011, 10:57 PM

Originally Posted by ImaginaryPogue

Right, but beating Takahashi means twice means that it wasn't actually unlucky to face Takahashi at his GP event. He's beaten him more than he's lost to him this season.

Well, I just think going up against the reigning World Champion and Silver Medalist in the two events entered was not the easiest or "lucky". Oda, or any other contender, would have better chances of winning gold against other skaters.

No insults were meant for Oda and I've always liked and respected him. I've ranked him higher than Takahashi so far this season by results. But nobody could know that before the season or even until GPF and JPN Nat.

He is definitely a podium contender and the surest first flighter.

eta. I also think Takahashi's GPF result, his worst in the season, might be an unfortunate outcome of his crash with Kozuka, which was carried over to his Nationals SP but he recovered by LP, coming in third place. We will never know what might have been. It is what it is. He was beaten by both Oda and Kozuka in these two events. He got back at Kozuka by 4CC but there has been no rematch with Oda.

All this just to show what a tight race Worlds will be.