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Thread: Patrick Chan, New World Champ and Record Holder, Can he reach 300 score?

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    Patrick Chan, New World Champ and Record Holder, Can he reach 300 score?

    First of all, congratulation to Patrick Chan for winning the World Title in recording breaking fashion! Totally deserved it.

    To the Chan haters/bashers, there are many threads out there you can bash/moan about Chan's over marked etc. to your heart's content, can you please do not infect this thread as well? Thanks.

    This thread is for the people who like Chan's skating, appreciate his skill and technique. Now that he has achieved his goal. What will his next goal be? 300? Can he do it? And what should he do to get there?

    What much did his LP 3A step-out cost him?

    I think he will need another quad combo if he wants to get to 300, lol, and I think it's achievable.

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    Well, he wants to dominate men's figure skating. So most importantly, he needs consistency. He's improved his consistency quite remarkably this season. I think it's realistically possible for him to dominate for a while.

    If he skates more quad jumps than 3, of course he could reach 300. But he has to learn different kind of quad other than quad toe. Does he have it? It might be too soon for next season.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bluebonnet View Post
    If he skates more quad jumps than 3, of course he could reach 300. But he has to learn different kind of quad other than quad toe. Does he have it? It might be too soon for next season.
    Team Chan has been suggesting that the next type of Quad that would be a natural fit for him is the Quad Flip. According to Dartfish analysis of his jumps, his teams believes that he is more than capable of doing Quad Flip and get it fully rotated. This is the same analysis they have done on his Quad Toe as well. Chan is the type of skater who favors toe jumps, whereas he tends to be a little weaker on his edge jumps. Seeing how he almost never misses his Triple Flips and the ease which they were executed, I believe Quad Flip is next for him. When will it be ready? I don't know. Chan seems surprised that he can do Quad Flip, though that's what his Dartfish entourage is telling him and he said he trusts their scientific analysis. So if a scientific analysis of his jumps show he can do Quad Flip, then I think this is real.

    More than just aiming for the 300 points goal, I do think he will eventually need more than just Quad Toe. By 2013, my expectation is that 2 Quads will be fairly routine among Men's LP. In order to continue to stand out and sustain the kind of leads he has, there is no doubt in my mind he will need to continue to persevere, otherwise he risk being taken over by other men shooting for him. Men's sport has always been very cutthorat, much more so than women's.

    My guess is if he does include a 3rd Quad in his LP, it will likely be replacing his Double Axel jumping pass, the last jump element in his LP. And the 3 Quads will be executed as the first 3 jump elements of the LP, likely as 4T, then 4F, and 4T+3T. If he does that, I think the 300 points barrier is reachable, though the rest of the jumping passes may need to be revised as well. I was surprised by Javier Fernandez's overall BV in his LP today - he actually had a higher total BV than Chan, which was really intriguing. I haven't studied it yet in details but what's interesting is that it's not entirely due to the inclusion of a 4S as opposed to another 4T. In short, the possibility is endless for Chan going forward, I hope to see him doing well in the future.

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    He doesn't currently do a 3A-3T or a second 3A, does he? I'm pretty sure he doesn't do the first but I can't recall if there is a second 3A in his program, I'm thinking no though

    It would be good if he could master the quad-triple-double like Plushenko.. or what about a 3-3-3? Could it be done? lol

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    Quote Originally Posted by blue_idealist View Post
    He doesn't currently do a 3A-3T or a second 3A, does he? I'm pretty sure he doesn't do the first but I can't recall if there is a second 3A in his program, I'm thinking no though
    He doesn't have the space to do a 2nd 3A in his LP because he is repeating 4T and 3Lz. He could potentially replace one of the 3Lz for a 3A but for strategic reasons, his team chose to repeat the 3Lz instead, likely because his Lutz is far more consistent than his Axel and the point differential is not tremendous.

    It would be good if he could master the quad-triple-double like Plushenko.. or what about a 3-3-3? Could it be done? lol
    There is almost no benefit for him or most other people to go for such combo. Granted the show factor is interesting but that's about it. Given that a skater is only allowed one 3 jump combo in the entire LP, doing a 4-3-2 or 4-3-3 a la Kevin van der Perren will disallow his ability to do a 3Lz/3S combo and that would mean the loss of a jumping pass, which will end up lowering his overall BV. It would be even more costly should he decide to have 3 Quads in his LP as a jumping pass would worth even more then. KVDP's 4-3-3 is nice to look at but the design of his jumping layout fails to maximize the BV for him and in fact, worked against him.

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    Skating is art, if you let it be. Blades of Passion's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by wallylutz View Post
    There is almost no benefit for him or most other people to go for such combo. [Quad-Triple-Doube or Triple-Triple-Triple
    Correct, and it's yet another flaw in the current scoring system. Combinations should be given bonuses and that bonus should be proportional to the difficulty of the combination.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jettasian View Post
    I think he will need another quad combo if he wants to get to 300
    Either that or he could take up bowling.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jettasian View Post
    How much did his LP 3A step-out cost him?
    Not enough. Should be a mandatory -2 GOE for that kind of mistake, as it was an ungainly stepout, and many judges only gave -1. The points lost for -GOE are also not nearly as high as they should be. The rule changes for this season reward messy jumps as long as they are rotated within a 1/4 turn. Patrick lost -1.57 points for his mistake on the Triple Axel. In reality it should have been at least double that amount.

    Can he reach 300? Well, I would argue that it doesn't matter. The actual score becomes meaningless when put into the context of how much points everything is worth and how wildly inaccurate the +GOE scores and PCS given out are. We saw an increase in base values for the big jumps this season and an increase in the GOE and PCS being handed out.

    That said, if this kind of terrible scoring continues and Patrick Chan puts a 3rd Quad in his LP and skates to the level of his SP from Worlds and his LP from Nationals, then he could break 300.

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