Ladies Retirement

Now that the season is over, I think it's time for some off-season speculation. In this thread I want to focus on the future of the currently ISU eligible ladies skaters, who generally tend to have the shortest careers. There have been many "old" skaters from the last quadrennial who have stuck around so far, and it would be interesting just to see how long they continue and what their prospects are.

Joannie Rochette did not compete this season, but she hasn't officially retired yet. She's already 25 years old now so I don't think we'll see her in Sochi, but perhaps one more Worlds. She still hasn't won a World title and I suspect she may still have motivation to go for one. 2013 could be her best chance, as it will be in Canada.

Carolina Kostner is only a year younger than Joannie, and is the only other lady who stood on the podium in the last five Worlds with Mao, Miki and Yuna. She's not the most consistent skater, but the judges have considered her best skates to be medal worthy even against the formidable trio. So close to a World title a couple of times, she my be itching to try again for gold. Next year could be her best chance, as it will be in France. But Sochi is practically out of the question for her, too.

Miki now has two World titles. About a year younger than Carolina, she's one of the three women who have dominated the ladies field in the last five years. I believe she announced she would take a year off, but has not said anything about retirement. She may come back for 2013. But by then she could be up against a very formidable field that year. And I question her motivation because she's already got two World titles. More than enough to be satisfied with in retirement.

Mao Asada, I have very little doubt she'll stick around until Sochi. She said that's her long term goal and I believe her. The only question is whether she might take a break, and just how much we can see her improve in the years to come. I hope she takes it easy and not put too much pressure on herself. One way to do this would be to ignore the 3A for a year and just focus on everything else. Even without that 3A, she's more than good enough to win against anyone. She may need it in Sochi, though, if the Russians girls make it through puberty and explode onto the Senior ranks.

Yuna Kim is a big mystery. I'm not sure why she has continued to compete after her Olympic victory. She's now done two Worlds after her Olympic gold, which is more than any Olympic champ since Katarina Witt. Something tells me she might stick around until Sochi. So if she gets over her post-Olympic letdown and gets her competitive fire back for the long haul, it would be quite something to see her again in Russia.

Your thoughts? Any other "oldie" retiring or sticking around?

Joannie is almost guaranteed a Team gold if she comes back. She is certainly thinking about it. She is enjoying show skating this year but she was great at her only competition this past season, at Japan open, a team event, but she was the best Lady.

I am not even going to try to forecast who will stick around for Sochi. That is way too long a time frame in this ephemeral sport. I will only try to predict next season...

Yuna will stick around for at least one more season. She wants another world gold. She has the bug. Whatever you think of her tears on the podium at Worlds, it's clear that the championships meant a great deal to her. She has lost none of her technical skills, and if the drive is there she will keep going.

Miki may not stick around as we know she has recurring back injuries. She may be at the top of her game this season, but pain takes its toll and she may want a break or a chance to let herself heal.

I agree with everybody saying Mao will stick around. She is a very determined person who expects a great deal of herself. There's no way she can be satisfied with how this season ended.

For Joannie, I think she seems much happier as a 'professional' and she won't return to competition. I often thought she looked miserable and stressed out when she was competing and I don't see that on her face now.

I believe Miki will take a year off as she said, and then probably try to go to Sochi as long as she can still get a spot for Worlds in her country (and I expect she will be able to by then, even if Mao overtakes her as champion again).

I thought Carolina said she was staying too and I believe she will try. 28 isn't that old by today's standards in figure skating, and she doesn't have any injuries that I'm aware of, so I don't see why she couldn't do that.

There's no question that Mao will stay in, since she's started this new plan to fix her jumps and even with that, she's not far off the podium at worlds. She'll be back in top form for Sochi, probably.

I think Yu-Na has been competing because the Korean fed wants her to? Someone on FSU said they probably thought she and Min-Jung Kwak could together get two spots for next year's worlds, but unfortunately that didn't work, because MJ didn't make the short program. It's not that unusual though that she is still competing. Tessa Virtue and Scott Moir have done more competitions than her this season (well, if you count what they did finish at 4CC).

Phaneuf, Csizny and Flatt are question marks. I think Flatt will probably semi-retire because she's going to Stanford, although she might do US Nationals or something. I think Csizny will stick around until Sochi if she's doing well still although if she falls off the nationals podium she might not. I have no idea about Phaneuf, I guess it depends on how she's doing internationally. This season must have been frustrating for her (minus winning the second Canadian title).

Alissa said she will skate for one more season, but I wonder if she intends to try for Sochi? She's getting older and as such it may be tough for her to make the team come 2014, but I have a feeling she wants to medal at Worlds, so I think if she can manage that before 2014, she'll retire then.

SkateFiguring said:

Joannie is almost guaranteed a Team gold if she comes back. She is certainly thinking about it. She is enjoying show skating this year but she was great at her only competition this past season, at Japan open, a team event, but she was the best Lady.

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How would Canada be guaranteed Team Gold if Joannie competes. I think that's really premature. Especially since the Russians have a LOT of young talent. They did after all just medal in two events, and have a ton of young talent coming up in the the other two events.

Even if Canada has the best Dance, and best Man. I think it quite possible Russia will have the best Pairs team, and the best Lady.

And who knows where the USA will be, we actually have some young talent in ladies, and I think we have some young talent in men, and we are pretty good in dance (you know too) And guess what our best pair team, just beat your best pair team.

silverlake22 said:

Alissa said she will skate for one more season, but I wonder if she intends to try for Sochi? She's getting older and as such it may be tough for her to make the team come 2014, but I have a feeling she wants to medal at Worlds, so I think if she can manage that before 2014, she'll retire then.

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It's hard for me to see Alissa at Sochi but she'll stick around for a while testing the waters. She started over this year with new coaches and she'll want to take that for a spin a while longer. How long she stays depends first of all on how long she can keep up her technical level and if she stays injury free.
Then it might depend on the rest of the field: Will her fabulous spins and lovely lyricism still be enough in a few years to keep her in the mix with the very best? I think as long as she is one of very best U.S. ladies, at least, that'll be a key motivator to keep going but we'll see how long that lasts.
I'm just glad to see she'll be around next year. I hope she is as motivated as this year. This year, she was fiercely motivated to prove herself a better skater than the disastrous previous year. After a successful season this year, she'll have to find a deep source of motivation next year.

Carolina: Wow, Sochi would be her third Olympics! I don't know what to predict for her. It would be so wonderful if she could find even more consistency than she did this year because when she is on she can jump with the best of them and has other wonderful qualities as well. But she struggled so much with injuries this season. We'll see how long her body can keep going.

Joannie: I have a feeling no. Her career ended so well - World silver medalist, Olympic bronze, multiple Canadian champion and she's a big star. I have no crystal ball but if I had to bet I'd guess she'll toy with the idea of a comeback and then decide that she's happy looking back at her accomplishments. OTH, the lackluster Canadian ladies field might motivate her to return.

Miki Ando: As the only one of the current Japanese who competed at the 2006 Olympic, it seems like she's been around FOREVER. But she's actually still youngish. 23. Still, I kind of get the feeling she won't come back after her year off. It could be that she'll want to go for Sochi because her two previous Olympics were disappointments. But after a disappointing season last year, she already proved this year and she still can be the best in the world. I think she'll leave it at that.

Mao: She's still young and she'll be going for Sochi. But lord, I hope she finds her way again. I think she tried to do too much this year. It seems she tried to get back every single triple while also trying to maintain the 3a. Not that she should put her eggs in one basket but she needs to zero in a bit more and enjoy being the skater she is and not a skater who can do absolutely everything in the book.

Yuna: I really hope she sticks around. Like Mao, she's so young but unlike Mao she is still basically at her technical peak. But I find Yuna the hardest to predict.

Rachael: That is tricky. She is very young and for now she has made clear she intends to try to balance Standford and skating. I guess it basically depends on how manageable that turns out to be, especially given that she now has to bounce back from a pretty disappointing season. And with a new coach and rink to boot. Phil Hersh actually had a good article on this, written before worlds. He quoted Debi Thomas, who also went to Standford full time, as saying that she was best when she was stressed out trying to balance school and skating. She said the hardest year was when she suspended school to concentrate on the Olympics. Maybe Rachael will be the same way. Maybe she's better when skating isn't the only thing she is doing. Might keep her more sane.

How would Canada be guaranteed Team Gold if Joannie competes.

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I wrote almost quaranteed which was what I read from an article about Joannie.

Team event results will be determined by cumulative points acquired, not by individual wins. Canadians are pretty good at COP math as you know.

Especially since the Russians have a LOT of young talent.
...............
And who knows where the USA will be, we actually have some young talent in ladies, and I think we have some young talent in men, and we are pretty good in dance (you know too) And guess what our best pair team, just beat your best pair team.

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Depth matters not in Team event. One skater or team per event. And total points, baby, total points.

I'm just kidding around. Nobody knows what will happen in 3 years. I didn't even make any absolute prediction right before Worlds.

I read an article somewhere (a website that can't be linked to) that Fumie Suguri wants to keep skating until the Sochi Olympics. Yes, Fumie Suguri. 30 years old at this time.

I don't think it's gonna happen, though. I just can't see the JSF sending her to Sochi.

silverlake22 said:

Alissa said she will skate for one more season, but I wonder if she intends to try for Sochi? She's getting older and as such it may be tough for her to make the team come 2014, but I have a feeling she wants to medal at Worlds, so I think if she can manage that before 2014, she'll retire then.

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Sochi is still far away but she seems to be hitting her peak NOW, even though she's been around almost 10 years. People kept saying, if she'd be more consistent on jumps, yada yada, she could be one of the best, but I never bought into it and often times thought she was overhyped. I honestly thought she was done after her disastrous nationals last year, and have to hand it to her for buckling down instead, changing the environment, and making it happen. Many in her position would have quit.

ETA: If suguri wants to skate, let her go for it...although I think she should be realistic at this point and realize that with the talent in Japan, her best days are far behind her.

I wrote almost quaranteed which was what I read from an article about Joannie.

Team event results will be determined by cumulative points acquired, not by individual wins. Canadians are pretty good at COP math as you know.

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I don't see how COP math means Canada will win. After all LAST time they had Joannie and a team competition, I don't recall them winning it.

The facts are I think the Russians could very easily win this because of Pairs. I think its possible Artur could close some of the point gap between him and Chan (because Artur is an extremely talented jumper who reportedly had a 4sal, 4flip in practice) and because I'm sure the Rus fed will continue to politic. Mens is Russia's weakness.

But I think in dance, the Russians are absolutely likely to close some of the point gap with V/M. They have some very talented young teams, enough young teams that they will be able to politique to one as a contender. That's what I'm mentioning when it comes to young talent.

And in ladies, once again young talent is referring to the fact that I think its abosolutely possible one of those little Russian wonderbabies, will be jumping her way to Olympic Gold. I'm not sure Joannie after years of not competiting will be able to compete technically.

And so then we get to pairs. And well I'm sorry but I think both the USA and Canada will have a very difficult time closing the gap between their pairs team, and Russia's top pairs team. Pairs gives Russia A HUGE advantage because the only two countries who have teams that are close to V/T in ability, are countries who aren't competitive in any other discipline.

Its hard to know I think men are a weakeness for the Russians, so we will see. But PAIRS right now is a huge advantage. In fact right now add up the highest finishes for both Russia/Canada- and the Russians win.

I'm pretty comfortable predicting Canada, USA and Russia on a team podium. As for who wins... who knows?

I think closing the point gap is easier than you do, bekalc. There's only so much higher the top teams can score before they the ceiling. In pairs and ice dance, they're coming perilously close. Less so in mens. Gachinski will improve, but to assume that Chan will stay stagnant, I think, is wrong. I wouldn't be surprised to see the gap between Chan and Gachisnki widen next season, actually.

ImaginaryPogue said:

I'm pretty comfortable predicting Canada, USA and Russia on a team podium. As for who wins... who knows?

I think closing the point gap is easier than you do, bekalc. There's only so much higher the top teams can score before they the ceiling. In pairs and ice dance, they're coming perilously close. Less so in mens. Gachinski will improve, but to assume that Chan will stay stagnant, I think, is wrong. I wouldn't be surprised to see the gap between Chan and Gachisnki widen next season, actually.

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In pairs I don't think V/T have reached their heights technically. They are fully capable of upgrades. Harder level on their triple twist at least. Harder throw AT LEAST. And their PCS still have room to rise.

I agree about Dance.

In terms of Patrick, I can't see his PCS getting much higher. He got 3 10s. There's only so much they can go, and I can see coming a push for others PCS to rise. In terms of technically I'm not sure Patrick can improve much more. His 3axel IS inconsistent. And he does as many 4toes as he can do. I'm not so sure about Patrick getting a 4sal etc (although could be wrong) I'm not sure if Patrick will even fully need it. Then again if Brezina starts landing those quads in the free (and his other jumps) and starts doing 2 quads in the short, Patrick may have no choice.

I agree the gap between Artur/Patrick should widen next season, but thats more to hopefully Artur's PCS going down. But technically I think Artur is absolutely more likely to get another quad in his arsenal. Frankly more reason too.

Miki doesn't sound like she is taking a year off anymore. She is competing until sochi.

ks777 said:

Miki doesn't sound like she is taking a year off anymore. She is competing until sochi.

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Really? Wow, where did you hear this news?

I also just read that Yuna all but confirmed next year's 4CC and Worlds. It's amazing to think these three (including Mao) are all planning to compete until Sochi.

bekalc said:

How would Canada be guaranteed Team Gold if Joannie competes. I think that's really premature. Especially since the Russians have a LOT of young talent. They did after all just medal in two events, and have a ton of young talent coming up in the the other two events.

Even if Canada has the best Dance, and best Man. I think it quite possible Russia will have the best Pairs team, and the best Lady.

And who knows where the USA will be, we actually have some young talent in ladies, and I think we have some young talent in men, and we are pretty good in dance (you know too) And guess what our best pair team, just beat your best pair team.

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I think what was meant, was Joannie could be the Canadian Ladies Champion again going into the Olympics. She will at least be in the top five in the world.

This is all about the Ladies, and retirement is up to them at any age. However, I do believe Rachael will head for Stanford.

What about the MEN?

bekalc said:

In pairs I don't think V/T have reached their heights technically. They are fully capable of upgrades. Harder level on their triple twist at least. Harder throw AT LEAST. And their PCS still have room to rise.

I agree about Dance.

In terms of Patrick, I can't see his PCS getting much higher. He got 3 10s. There's only so much they can go, and I can see coming a push for others PCS to rise. In terms of technically I'm not sure Patrick can improve much more. His 3axel IS inconsistent. And he does as many 4toes as he can do. I'm not so sure about Patrick getting a 4sal etc (although could be wrong) I'm not sure if Patrick will even fully need it. Then again if Brezina starts landing those quads in the free (and his other jumps) and starts doing 2 quads in the short, Patrick may have no choice.

I agree the gap between Artur/Patrick should widen next season, but thats more to hopefully Artur's PCS going down. But technically I think Artur is absolutely more likely to get another quad in his arsenal. Frankly more reason too.

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The thing is when you score high 8s, low 9's PCS (as V/T did), there's not that much more room to go - unless you think they can score high nines, tens even. That happens rarely (D/W, V/M at this moment). This is true of Chan as well.

But I do think Chan's seriously considering the 4F - he's mentioned it twice, and he's unlikely to go for a 4S or 4Loop as the loop is his 2nd weakest jump and in general he doesn't like the salchow (whereas he has a gorgeous flip). If he does, then we can see his score go higher. If he solidifies the 3A (and I think he will), another bump.

But I also wonder if V/T will score as well off home ice. They'll do well, don't get me wrong, but those technical improvements you mention (harder throws, higher levels) may come at the expense of GOEs, making the score bottom out a little.

A team like Duhamel/Radford will never reach V/T, but closing the gap is definitely possible. They've already got the highest base level in jumps. If they spend the next year refining, I totally see their PCS improving - and every little bit helps.

Joe, the men are in a bind, admittedly. I expect Takahashi, Joubert and Verner to stick out next season, as will Oda. van der Perren takes things one season at a time, but his thought process seems to be "I had a bad year, and I can't leave like that/I had a good year so why not try one more" which makes predicting difficult. The rest of the men generally have Sochi as a goal.

Don't see Bradley coming back, though. Nationals got him really excited. Worlds deflated that. Two spots, a pack of hungry men, hopefully a revitalized Abbott and Rippon....

Layfan said:

It's hard for me to see Alissa at Sochi but she'll stick around for a while testing the waters. She started over this year with new coaches and she'll want to take that for a spin a while longer. How long she stays depends first of all on how long she can keep up her technical level and if she stays injury free.
Then it might depend on the rest of the field: Will her fabulous spins and lovely lyricism still be enough in a few years to keep her in the mix with the very best? I think as long as she is one of very best U.S. ladies, at least, that'll be a key motivator to keep going but we'll see how long that lasts.
I'm just glad to see she'll be around next year. I hope she is as motivated as this year. This year, she was fiercely motivated to prove herself a better skater than the disastrous previous year. After a successful season this year, she'll have to find a deep source of motivation next year.

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While that may be true, she DID miss out on a world medal by a few points. I take it if she's really ambitious, that's something she's going to want to go for next year. It may be her last chance before the Sochi contenders from Russia (and the US, too) emerge on the scene.

Even with Czisny's renaissance, it wasn't enough to make US ladies truly relevant again. Our streak of no world medal has extended now to 5 years (how does this compare to past droughts?) and we still have just 2 spots.

R.D. said:

While that may be true, she DID miss out on a world medal by a few points. I take it if she's really ambitious, that's something she's going to want to go for next year. It may be her last chance before the Sochi contenders from Russia (and the US, too) emerge on the scene.

Even with Czisny's renaissance, it wasn't enough to make US ladies truly relevant again. Our streak of no world medal has extended now to 5 years (how does this compare to past droughts?) and we still have just 2 spots.

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For her personally, it was a good year and I can see how she wouldn't want to give up competitive skating just yet regardless of these other considerations. For now, she is certainly the top or at least in the top three American ladies. She also has proven than she can be one of the best five lady skaters in the world. I that lasting until Sochi, given her age, the fact that she doesn't have the most difficult jump combos and that there are all of these up and coming youngsters. Hopefully, one or two of the youngsters will be from the U.S. but it's certainly not as clear as Russia and Japan.
For now, I just hope Alissa has another decent season next year.

I was thinking about what a bummer it is that we have two spots. Of course, the U.S. has no strong medal contender, either way. But it would be so fabulous if the team next year could be Mirai, Alissa and Agnes/Christina or some other up and comer who might surprise us next year.

But we'll get there. I'm telling you: Mirai or Alissa will be world champion next year and the other will be on the podium. :yes:Then we'll have three spots, and in 2013, Agnes or Christina will be on the podium. :humbsup::thumbsup: