Ladies Retirement

Serious Business · May 4, 2011

Yuna has choked at Worlds on almost every occasion. She's only won 1 worlds out of 5 attempts! All the other times she was at least a co-favorite, but made horrible mistakes in one or other segment of the competition to lose it. So let's say she has a 20% chance of winning each Worlds she enters and she enters 3 more worlds (including the one after Sochi). There's an 89.6% chance she'd only win 1 or less of those Worlds (and a 51.2% chance she'd win none). She's not going to break any records in World gold.

cooper · May 4, 2011

Serious Business said:
Yuna has choked at Worlds on almost every occasion. She's only won 1 worlds out of 5 attempts! All the other times she was at least a co-favorite, but made horrible mistakes in one or other segment of the competition to lose it. So let's say she has a 20% chance of winning each Worlds she enters and she enters 3 more worlds (including the one after Sochi). There's an 89.6% chance she'd only win 1 or less of those Worlds (and a 51.2% chance she'd win none). She's not going to break any records in World gold.

5 straight medals though..not too shabby. LOL.

sunny0760 · May 4, 2011

I agree with both Layfan and Serious Business.

If there is one dominant skater in relatively recent years, it will be Plushenko. Yuna has been kind of dominant too but she doesn't seem to be really motivated in order to be dominant for the next three or four years. However, even if she quits just after the Worlds 2012 with any color of medal, her legacy will remain considerable/unforgettable for quite a while.

Chan says he wants to dominate in the field like Federer or Woods and wants to win the next Olympics. Sochi is still far away so anything can happen. Almost unpredictable but even more so in Ladies' than in Men's. I expect younger ladies, maybe the Russian wonder kids will change the ladie's horizon. Anyway, I think it is Chan among men and ladies who has the most chance to be dominant for the next three years. His dream is not so unrealistic.:thumbsup:

Lysacek has not retired yet. Does anyone know whether he will resume next season?

Lilith11 · May 4, 2011

Serious Business said:
Yuna has choked at Worlds on almost every occasion. She's only won 1 worlds out of 5 attempts! All the other times she was at least a co-favorite, but made horrible mistakes in one or other segment of the competition to lose it. So let's say she has a 20% chance of winning each Worlds she enters and she enters 3 more worlds (including the one after Sochi). There's an 89.6% chance she'd only win 1 or less of those Worlds (and a 51.2% chance she'd win none). She's not going to break any records in World gold.

To be fair, she skated noticeably injured in 2007 and 2008 and yet still managed to medal and has in fact medaled at all five of them thus far. But the one year she did win gold, I'd say she won in a fairly dominating, world record breaking and stunning fashion, yes? :3

janetfan · May 4, 2011

In a nine year period at Worlds Michelle won:

5 Gold
3 Silver
1 Bronze

That may never be equaled again.

But Yuna has an impressive Worlds resume with:

1 Gold
2 Silver
2 Bronze

If Yuna continues until 2014 I would expect her medal tally to grow.

We are in an era of technical skating and Yuna is a superb tecnician with a very expressive and elegant skating style.

Krislite · May 4, 2011

Serious Business said:
Yuna has choked at Worlds on almost every occasion. She's only won 1 worlds out of 5 attempts! All the other times she was at least a co-favorite, but made horrible mistakes in one or other segment of the competition to lose it. So let's say she has a 20% chance of winning each Worlds she enters and she enters 3 more worlds (including the one after Sochi). There's an 89.6% chance she'd only win 1 or less of those Worlds (and a 51.2% chance she'd win none). She's not going to break any records in World gold.

The probability of winning Worlds doesn't quite work like that. You can't just look at a skater's past few y performances at Worlds and say if s/he won x out y times, then every year from now that s/he goes to worlds, his/her chances of winning is x out y.

Say what you will of Yuna's accomplishments; she already has had greater longevity in competitive skating than many recent Olympic champions such as Sarah Hughes, Tara Lipinski and Oksana Baiul. Unlike them, I think she will have a bigger legacy and will likely keep skating until Sochi.

Serious Business · May 4, 2011

Yuna is super dominant in ladies figure skating. If you look at her record, aside from Skate Canada in 2006 (where she got bronze at her first senior international competition), she has won every senior competition she entered except for 2009's GPF (where she got silver) and of course, the 4 World Championships. For any competition she enters except the World Championships, you should bet on her to win.

I don't know if there's some psychological bugaboo about Worlds? Maybe? I kinda doubt it? If she can pull it together to skate perfectly at the insane pressure cooker of the Olympics she can do it anywhere. It's probably just bad luck? Ice is slippery?

Regardless, her World record is deceptive. She is clearly the best skater of her generation. It's kinda funny how her Worlds don't work out, but she already did win that once, won all those other things, and the Olympics, and millions of dollars, and will go down in history as the pioneer of figure skating in South Korea. She is a bit like the inverse of all the great skaters who never won the Olympics (Browning, Kwan, et al.) except she at least has one world title to complete the set.

Krislite said:
The probability of winning Worlds doesn't quite work like that. You can't just look at a skater's past few y performances at Worlds and say if s/he won x out y times, then every year from now that s/he goes to worlds, his/her chances of winning is x out y.

I was being super facetious (plus I wanted a chance to trot out binomial distribution). See my clarification in this post.

amateur · May 5, 2011

Wasn't Yu-Na injured, or recovering from a serious back injury, at one of her first worlds? And at 2010 worlds, a little understandably past her peak for the year? And yet she has always medalled. seems like a fine record to me, all things considered

Mathman · May 5, 2011

Serious Business said:
(plus I wanted a chance to trot out binomial distribution).

Did you know that Professor Moriarty, nemesis of Sherlock Holmes, published a brilliant treatise on the binomial theorem before turning his genius to criminal enterprises?

jatale · May 5, 2011

Could somebody please point me to the new "Russian Wonderbabies", who are they and are there some youtube videos that show their wonderfullness? How do they compare to such American up and comers like Agnes Zawadzki? Thanks.

burntBREAD · May 5, 2011

jatale said:
Could somebody please point me to the new "Russian Wonderbabies", who are they and are there some youtube videos that show their wonderfullness? How do they compare to such American up and comers like Agnes Zawadzki? Thanks.

Search "Adelina Sotnikova" and "Elizveta Tuktamysheva". They were 1/2 at Jr. Worlds this year, and Agnes was 3. Adelina has a 3Lz-3Lo (consistently rotated) and Elizaveta has been seen doing triple axels.

janetfan · May 5, 2011

burntBREAD said:
Search "Adelina Sotnikova" and "Elizveta Tuktamysheva". They were 1/2 at Jr. Worlds this year, and Agnes was 3. Adelina has a 3Lz-3Lo (consistently rotated) and Elizaveta has been seen doing triple axels.

There are no rumors about Adelina. She can do what people have said and is as exquiste as Sasha.

Liza seems to be hyped the way Gao has been. Liza gets credit for things she has NEVER done in ISU or even National events.

A big difference from where I am sitting and watching.

R.D. · May 5, 2011

Make no mistake though- they will feel the pressure especially as Sochi 2014 approaches. If they don't lose their abilities in a growth spurt, their mental toughness will definitely be tested.

janetfan · May 5, 2011

R.D. said:
Make no mistake though- they will feel the pressure especially as Sochi 2014 approaches. If they don't lose their abilities in a growth spurt, their mental toughness will definitely be tested.

Adelina at 14 won the Jr GPF, Russian Natls (yes she beat Alena, Ksenia and Liza) and won Jr Worlds. She beat Liza like a rug this season. She is just so much more polished and so far has not shown any signs of the dreaded "Russian tackiness."

I hope they keep her far, far away from Mishin and Morozov.

I see a winner and the complete package here. This girl is just blessed with Kwan's competitive abilty, Sasha's eye popping moves and her jumps are huge.

Lucky Star · May 5, 2011

Hernando said:
Liza seems to be hyped the way Gao has been.

But Gao is not near Liza's level, not at all.
It's not like Adelina is a prodigy and Liza is not. Both are great and it's hard to tell now which one will be better in future, Sochi is still ahead and anything can happen in 3 years. And there are still other Russian girls. I think we should see how they will do at the senior Grand Prix next season, what programs they will have and what technical content they will show. I only heard some rumors about Liza, she will have a new LP for sure and may keep her oriental SP, but didn't decide yet. She is also learning new combinations because next year lutz is a required jump for juniors. Now Liza is learning 3F-3Lo, Adelina did this combo already few years ago.

Back to the topic: watching Yuna at Worlds last week and knowing she wants to skip GP series again

It doesn't sound good to be honest, I won' be surprised if she'll retire soon, even though I don't want it at all, because she is my favorite skater.
And I really hope Mao will come back strong next season. She was painful to watch at Worlds and Japan has some strong young ladies coming up, so she has rivals even in her own country

jatale · May 5, 2011

I wrote in another thread on another forum (although I don't remember where frankly now) that the current top ladies skaters are going to have to up their game if they want to be competitive come Sochi in 2014 because of the young ones coming up. I fully expect the top up and coming young ladies (14 to 17 yo now) to all be doing 3-3 combos and some will probably have a 3A too by the time Sochi rolls around. The veterans are all going to need their A-game and all their experience to hold off the youngsters. IMO, only Yuna in full competitive form could still beat any of the newcomers at their best in 2014. But even for her, an extra margin of safety would be helpful, and for that Yuna might want to think about mastering the 3A or a Quad between now and 2014 - assuming she decides to continue in competition.

Of course, the youngsters might wilt under the super-hot spotlight of the Olympics, in which case the veterans can win if they just keep their cool.

Lucky Star · May 5, 2011

I agree with you, jatale, but IMO Yuna should get her 3Lo back first and only then think about 3A or quad. And looking at top 10 at Worlds this year, only Miki, Alena and Kanako have full set of triples. Also Mao, but her problems with jumps are obvious.

FlattFan · May 5, 2011

Liza could barely do her current 3x3, why would she learn a new 3x3? Her 3lutz3toe combo has been missing for a long time.
All this talk about 3A from Liza is ridiculous. This girl was seen doing it ONCE (probably out of 100 trials) Girl's all hyped.

Adelina is good now, but if anything, those 3loops combo will not survive puberty. See Miki & Mao.

Krislite · May 5, 2011

Lucky Star said:
I agree with you, jatale, but IMO Yuna should get her 3Lo back first and only then think about 3A or quad. And looking at top 10 at Worlds this year, only Miki, Alena and Kanako have full set of triples. Also Mao, but her problems with jumps are obvious.

Miki has omitted her triple Flip. For some reason there's usually one or two problematic jump for the top ladies, and it's typically an "easier" jump.

I think in the history of figure skating, only Midori Ito and Tonya Harding at their peak had complete mastery of every triple jump, including the triple Axel.

Yuna has done long programs with all triples (sans 3A), but only cleanly once during her senior year and the rest in her junior and novice years.

Symmetry · May 5, 2011

Lucky Star said:
I agree with you, jatale, but IMO Yuna should get her 3Lo back first and only then think about 3A or quad. And looking at top 10 at Worlds this year, only Miki, Alena and Kanako have full set of triples. Also Mao, but her problems with jumps are obvious.

I agree that Yu-Na needs to increase her technical values in order to win another OGM if that's something she is going after (I highly doubt). But to be fair, for this past Worlds, Miki did not have flip. Alena and Kanako tried with wrong edge, which shouldn't be considered to have a full set.

Ladies Retirement

Serious Business

cooper

sunny0760

Lilith11

janetfan

Match Penalty

Krislite

Serious Business

amateur

Mathman

jatale

burntBREAD

janetfan

Match Penalty

R.D.

janetfan

Match Penalty

Lucky Star

jatale

Lucky Star

FlattFan

Match Penalty

Krislite

Symmetry

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